The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads back to its most famous track this weekend when it visits Daytona International Speedway for Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400. The race is the follow-up to the season-opening Daytona 500 and the third superspeedway race of 2019. The superspeedways are easily the most unpredictable and volatile tracks on the schedule, and if you plan on cashing in playing NASCAR DFS at DraftKings this weekend, you need to be willing to adjust your typical strategy.
While you can’t completely throw dominator points out the window this weekend, they don’t need to be your main focus like they do at almost every other type of track on the schedule. The pack racing at superspeedway makes the fastest laps run category entirely irrelevant, and while a driver can pad their score a but by leading some laps, you usually don’t see one driver pile up points in that category either.
More importantly, the pack racing causes the running order to change dramatically from one lap to the next, and it often causes multi-car wrecks that wipe out big chunks of the field. Thanks to the high attrition and constantly shuffling of the running order, it is common to see a few drivers gain 20-plus spots from where they qualify and vice versa. As a result, the place differential category moves to the forefront, and it should be top priority when constructing DFS lineups.
Saturday night’s race is one where I simply won’t care about targeting dominator points, and I won’t even care about leaving money on the table when building rosters. I want drivers who are starting deep in the field who have lots of differential points to gain and not many to lose, especially if these drivers have also had some success at the superspeedways in the past. Big names starting deep in the field are obviously appealing, but you don’t need a bunch of household names to post a winning score this weekend
Needless to say, starting position means just about everything this weekend, so make sure to check back after the starting lineup is set for updated picks and lineup combinations. In the meantime, take a closer look at the drivers who I have my eye on at DraftKings for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway.
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Must-Own Drivers
Brad Keselowski ($10,500)
He has been crashing out of a lot of superspeedway races lately, but Keselowski is one of the few drivers capable of dominating a race at Daytona or Talladega. In addition to his series-leading six wins at the superspeedways, he has led laps in eight of the last 10 races, leading 20-plus four times. Place differential upside helps, but Keselowski can lead enough laps to post a solid score regardless.
Joey Logano ($10,200)
Logano has been on a ridiculous roll at the superspeedways. Over the last 10 races, he leads all drivers with six Top 5s, seven Top 10s and 206 laps led. Logano has led double-digit laps six times in those 10 starts, and he has finished fourth in each of the first two superspeedway races in 2019, leading a combined 48 laps. He is one driver who you have to consider rostering no matter how qualifying plays out.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400)
Stenhouse will run over anyone and everyone to get to the front at the superspeedways, but the strategy has been effective more often than not. He ranks second in driver points scored over the last 10 races, winning twice and logging four Top 5s. He has also led laps in eight of those 10 races, leading double-digit laps six times. Stenhouse is a no-brainer play if he has place differential potential, and even if he starts towards the front, he deserves consideration for GPP contests.
Difference Makers and Value Plays
Denny Hamlin ($9,000)
Hamlin has been one of the better superspeedway racers in the series for a while now, and over the last 10 races, he ranks fourth in driver points scored. He has led laps in six of the races in that same stretch, and he has led double-digit laps five times, leading 30 laps in his win in this year’s Daytona 500. Even if he qualifies well, Hamlin could be worth a look in GPP contests because of his ability to contend for wins and lead laps.
Erik Jones ($8,800)
After a horrible start to his career at the superspeedways, Jones return to the July race at Daytona as the defending winner. He also has three Top 10s in the last four superspeedway races, finishing in the Top 3 in the last two races at Daytona. Jones has actually gained at least seven spots in four straight superspeedway starts, moving up 25 or more spots twice. If he starts deep in the field, he has shown he can deliver a monster point total.
Alex Bowman ($8,600)
After his win at Chicagoland, I think you can call Bowman the hottest driver in the Cup Series, and he might not slow down this weekend. He was the runner-up at Talladega back in April, and he has finished 11th or better in four of his six superspeedway starts in the No. 88. As long as he has a little place differential upside, I won’t mind riding Bowman’s hot hand.
Aric Almirola ($8,400)
Almirola has emerged as one of the most reliable DFS plays at the superspeedways in recent years. In addition to seven finishes of 11th or better in nine starts since 2017, he picked up a win at Talladega last fall and has gained an average of 8.7 spots. With Top 5 upside and a solid floor, Almirola will become a must-own option if place differential points get added into the mix after qualifying.
Ryan Newman ($7,700)
He has been locked in at the superspeedways for a couple of years now, and Newman has finished in the Top 15 in seven of his last eight starts, logging six Top 10s in that stretch. In two starts since joining the No. 6 team, he has a 10.5 average finish and has gained a total of 22 spots. If he starts in the middle of the pack or deeper, you have to like him as a cash game option.
Brendan Gaughan ($7,200)
The veteran only shows up for the superspeedway races these days, but he usually helps out DFS owners when he does get behind the wheel. Gaughan has compiled a 16.8 average finish over the last 10 superspeedway races while gaining an average of 12.8 spots per race. He has finished 12th or better in three of the last four races, notching a Top 10 at Talladega back in April. He could be a steal if he starts deeper in the field.
Chris Buescher ($6,800)
Buescher has crashed out of both the superspeedway races this year, but I wouldn’t write him off this weekend. He has still finished 17th or better and gained at least 11 spots in six of the last nine superspeedway races, giving him plenty of upside if he continues his trend of qualifying deep in the field.
Ty Dillon ($6,300)
He is normally a last resort for those in search of cap relief, bit Dillon has shown a steady floor at the superspeedways. He has finished 17th or better in eight of his last 10 starts, posting a 16.8 average finish. Dillon also has an average place differential of +7.2 in those starts, and his value creeps higher the deeper in the field he starts.
Ryan Preece ($6,000)
The rookie has only made two superspeedway starts at the Cup level, but he made plenty of noise in both. After gaining 13 spots and finishing eighth in the Daytona 500, Preece moved up 27 spots and finished third in the April race at Talladega. I don’t care if the sample size is tiny. I’ve seen enough to take a chance on Preece if he starts anywhere outside the Top 20.
Sleeper Specials
Michael McDowell ($5,700)
McDowell’s surprise Top 5 run in this year’s Daytona 500 continued a strong stretch at the track for him. He has finished in the Top 15 in six of his last seven starts here, and he has three Top 10s in the last four Daytona races alone. If McDowell ends up starting deeper in the field, why not take a chance on his Top 10 potential?
Corey LaJoie ($5,200)
LaJoie has made two superspeedway starts in the No. 32, delivering solid DFS performances in both. He gained 14 spots and finished 18th in the Daytona 500 to open the year, and he moved up 25 spots and finished 11th at Talladega. If he qualifies outside the Top 25, a 30-plus fantasy points could be on tap.
Ross Chastain ($5,100)
His 21.2 average finish in five superspeedway starts might not jump off the page, but when you consider that Chastain has also gained an average of 13.6 per race in those starts, his DFS potential becomes clear. He has actually gained at least eight spots in all five of his starts, moving up double-digit spots four times. If Chastain starts around 30th, he can post a useful point total.
