The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series leaves behind the mile-and-a-half tracks and the reduced-horsepower package this weekend for a trip to ISM Raceway. Teams will use a high-horsepower package for Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 at the low-banked, mile-long tri-oval, and it will be interesting to see if the change shuffles things up on the track at all.
Personally, I am not expecting much to change with the package being used this weekend. We have seen ISM, better known as Phoenix, undergo changes to its layout in recent years, but many of the same faces usually find a way to the front. Certain drivers just seem to excel at flat tracks like Phoenix, those are the drivers I plan to target to this weekend.
I also don’t plan to hunt for place differential points as aggressively this weekend. Yes, I’ll gladly roster any of the top options if they happen to start deep in the field, but passing is tough here thanks in large part to the lack of banking. I’d rather have a driver with a solid Phoenix resume starting in the teens than someone with no history of success here that is starting deep in the field.
Starting position always means at Fanduel because of the scoring system, so make sure to check out my final DFS plays later this weekend. Until then, take a closer look at the drivers I plan on targeting for Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway.
Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($14,500)
He has nine wins under his belt at Phoenix, and he’s been close to unstoppable here with Stewart-Haas Racing. In his 10 starts with SHR, he has compiled a ridiculous 2.7 average finish, winning five times and leading more than 70 laps six times. There is a good chance that Harvick finishes as the top scorer this weekend.
Kyle Busch ($14,200)
Busch checks all the boxes you could want in an elite fantasy play this weekend. He has finished in the Top 10 in his last seven starts at Phoenix, finishing in the Top 5 six times in that span. Busch led 128 laps and finished second in the March race last year and led 117 laps in a win here in the fall. He has now led more than 100 laps in three of the last four races at Phoenix and at least 75 laps in four of the last six.
Value Plays
Chase Elliott ($11,500)
If you are looking for a contrarian driver to lead a lot of laps, Elliott is your best bet. He has four Top 10s in six Cup starts here, and he has a pair of Top 3 finishes in the last three races here. More importantly, he has led double-digit laps in three of the last four races here, leading more than 100 laps in the March race in 2017. It’s been a quiet start to the year for Elliott, but he could erupt this weekend.
Aric Almirola ($10,800)
Phoenix was one of his better tracks even before he joined Stewart-Haas Racing, and Almirola was even better with SHR. He finished seventh in the March race last year, and he followed that up with a fourth-place run in the fall. Almirola is a strong bet for a Top 10 this weekend with Top 5 upside, so I’ll be watching him closely ahead of qualifying.
Kurt Busch ($10,000)
Busch hasn’t missed a beat after switching teams this offseason, and he heads into Phoenix on the heels of back-to-back Top 5 finishes. He’s been solid at Phoenix throughout his career, and he has six Top 10s in the last 10 races here, and he led over 50 laps in the fall race last season. Busch looks like one of the cheaper options on the board with a decent shot at leading laps.
Ryan Newman ($8,200)
He has been one of the steadiest performers at Phoenix for years, finishing 12th or better in eight of the last 10 races here. Newman finished 11th in both races here a year ago, and while he switched teams this offseason, he has still been showing Top 15 speed. He has one of the safest floors of any of the mid-priced options, so jump on him if he has some decent differential upside.
Alex Bowman ($7,500)
Bowman’s breakout performance at the Cup level came at Phoenix back in 2016 when he led 194 laps and finished sixth while subbing for Dale Earnhardt Jr. He notched a 13th-place finish here last March, and he’s opened 2019 with three straight Top 15s. This is a great price for a driver with a solid floor and legitimate Top 10 potential. If he starts in the back half of the field, I am going to have a ton of exposure.
William Byron ($7,100)
His rookie year was largely forgettable, but Phoenix was one of the bright spots. He led a few laps and finished 12th in the March race, and he gained 10 spots and finished ninth in the fall race. With Top 10 upside, I’ll gladly take a chance on Byron if he starts in the middle of the pack this weekend.
Sleeper Specials
Chris Buescher ($6,000)
Buescher is off to a solid start in 2019, backing up a Top 10 run at Atlanta with a Top 20 effort at Las Vegas. His overall record at Phoenix isn’t great, but he finished 18th here last fall and seems to have found some more speed. This is a great price for a driver who looks like a weekly Top 20 threat, especially if he starts deeper in the field.
Corey LaJoie ($3,000)
If you are looking to free up a ton of cap space this weekend, LaJoie is someone to keep an eye on. He moved to the No. 32 this season, and he has snuck into the Top 30 in all three races so far, gaining an average of 4.0 spots per race. His ceiling is obviously limited, but LaJoie could help you roster a lot of high-priced studs and still produce a serviceable point total.
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