While it’s not the Daytona 500 or the inaugural Brickyard 400, Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway could end up being one of the more important races in NASCAR’s history. For the first time, the complete 2019 rules package will be used during a race, and nobody is sure what to expect.
The package features a tapered spacer designed to limit engines to about 550 horsepower, a taller spoiler and aero ducts. NASCAR’s goal is to manufacture closer racing and to make it easier to run down the leaders at larger tracks by bringing the draft into play. Whether it works and to what extent it works remains to be seen, but in the meantime, we have some DFS lineups to set for Fanduel.
Since this scoring system is already skewed toward the place differential category, I think the smartest strategy is to build around quality drivers starting deep in the field. Thanks to the wacky qualifying session we had Friday, there are no shortage of options available.
I will have a few lineups with one dominator candidate starting up front, but since the laps led category is already relatively weak in Fanduel scoring, I’m hesitant to invest too heavily in case this rules package does create a situation where the leader is a sitting duck and is constantly getting the slingshot treatment.
Check out all my top DFS plays at Fanduel for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas, and make sure to lock in your lineups for what could be a wild afternoon.
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Must-Own Drivers
Brad Keselowski ($14,000)
I’m leaning heavily on the place differential category this weekend, and Keselowski has plenty, especially for a guy with an elite record at Las Vegas. He has seven straight finishes of seventh or better here, winning three times and posting a 3.4 average finish in that span. Keselowski has also led more than 50 laps in three of those seven races, leading at least 75 laps in two of the last three. Starting 19th, he’s positioned for a big point total.
Martin Truex Jr. ($13,500)
The draft-dependent qualifying didn’t work out in his favor, but on the plus side, Truex has a whole bunch of differential points available. He will start 23rd, but he has four Top 5s in the last five races at Las Vegas. He has also led more than 90 laps in two of the last three races here. Truex could gain 20-plus spots and lead some laps on his way to a huge score.
Cash Plays
Aric Almirola ($10,000)
He’s been one of the steadiest drivers in the series since joining Stewart-Haas Racing last year, and Almirola has six straight Top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks. He finished in the Top 10 in both races at Vegas last year, which means he shouldn’t have much trouble overcoming his 25th-place effort in qualifying. Almirola looks like one of the safest plays out there.
Kurt Busch ($9,600)
While some of his recent finishes at Las Vegas haven’t been pretty, you can blame bad luck and not a lack of speed. Busch is a guy who can run in the Top 10 at any track on the schedule, and he’s starting back in 28th. Don’t overthink this one.
Ryan Newman ($8,400)
Add Newman to the list of drivers who came out on the losing end of qualifying. He has to start way back in 29th, but Las Vegas has been a good track for him. He has five Top 15s in the last six races here, including finishes of 11th and ninth last year. This is a great price for someone who easily gain double-digit spots Sunday.
Chris Buescher ($6,000)
Buescher was a DFS hero last weekend when he moved up 21 spots to finish ninth at Atlanta, and I wouldn’t rule out a similar performance Sunday. After all, he qualified 27th, and he started 28th and finished 15th in both of the races at Las Vegas last year.
GPP Plays
Kevin Harvick ($14,500)
Sitting on the pole at a 1.5-mile track, I’d normally throw Harvick in the must-own category. However, the new rules package raises a lot of question marks, and I’m not sure he will be able to repeat his performance from last March at Las Vegas when he led 214 laps and won the race. I’m still willing to find out, but I’m not going to have a maximum exposure.
Kyle Busch ($13,200)
You can pretty much cut and paste my thoughts on Harvick and use them for Kyle Busch. He’s starting third, and normally, I would pencil him in for plenty of laps led. That still may happen, but it’s a bit of a guessing game this weekend.
Erik Jones ($9,100)
Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch are going to be the popular picks in this price range, but Jones could be the ideal pivot. He still has solid differential upside after qualifying 18th, and he’s been a Top 10 machine at the 1.5-mile ovals since the start of last season.
Daniel Suarez ($8,000)
While Ryan Newman is the safest pick in this salary range, Suarez is an enticing alternative. He starts 22nd, so the differential points are there. He’s yet to show he can be consistent at the Cup level, but his Top 10 run at Atlanta last weekend could be a sign of things to come for Suarez now that he is with Stewart-Haas Racing. I think he has a higher ceiling than Newman, so the risk could be worth the reward.
Ryan Preece ($5,000)
We don’t have a lot of data to go on with Preece, but we saw him drive from outside the Top 20 into the Top 10 at Atlanta last weekend before his day came to an abrupt end with a pit road crash. He’s starting 24th Sunday, and it won’t cost you much to find out if the rookie can challenge for another solid finish.
