The 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season continues this weekend with a trip Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 will be the second race in a row at a mile-and-a-half oval, and it will also be the highly anticipated debut of NASCAR’s reduced-horsepower package, featuring both the tapered spacers used last weekend at Atlanta and aero ducts.
There are plenty of question marks about the type of racing we will see this weekend, but almost everyone believes the new rules will allow drivers to keep the throttle on the floor for longer stretches while bringing the draft into play both during qualifying and during races.
Depending on how important the draft becomes, we could see the fastest lap category become a little more spread out and a little less valuable as a result. I also think restarts could become even more chaotic than they already are. With drivers bunched up tighter for longer stretches, blocking and side drafting are going to become the norm. This will inevitably lead to more wrecks and higher attrition, and if a caution flies late in a race, don’t be surprised if several more cautions follow.
Once cars hit the track for practice and qualifying, we will start to get a better picture of what to expect on Sunday. In the meantime, here is a closer look at the drivers I have my eye on at DraftKings for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas.
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Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($12,500)
He has won two of the last five races at Las Vegas, leading more than 140 laps in both of those victories. Harvick led 214 laps in a dominating win in last year’s March race, and while he has had a few wrecks mixed in, you won’t find anyone with a higher ceiling.
Brad Keselowski ($11,400)
Keselowski picked up the win at Atlanta last Sunday, and there’s a good chance he is back in victory lane this weekend. He won the fall race at Las Vegas a year ago, his third win in the last seven races here. Keselowski hasn’t finished worse than seventh in that stretch, and he has led 50-plus laps three times, leading at least 75 laps in two of the last three races.
Joey Logano ($10,700)
While Logano is far from cheap this weekend, this isn’t a terrible price tag for a driver who has been a lock to lead laps at Las Vegas. In 12 starts here with Team Penske, he has never finished worse than 12th, and he has four finishes of fourth or better. More importantly, Logano has led at least 25 laps in five of his last six starts here, leading 40-plus laps four times.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100)
I thought Truex was too cheap last weekend at Atlanta, and he nearly came away with the win. I guess that wasn’t enough to impress whoever is setting the prices because he’s too cheap again this weekend. Truex has cracked the Top 5 in his last three starts at Las Vegas, topping 60 fastest laps run and 90 laps led in two of those three races.
Value Plays
Kyle Larson ($9,800)
Larson went with the Denny Hamlin strategy of throwing away a potential win with a pit road speeding penalty at Atlanta, but the performance served as a reminder that he is on the short list of guys who can lead for long stretches of races. I’m not sure this new package will play to his strengths, but with three straight Top 3 finishes at Las Vegas, I’m not opposed to finding out. Among the guys priced below $10,000, Larson has could really pile up the dominator points.
Ryan Blaney ($9,500)
A cut tire ruined a strong run for Blaney at Atlanta last weekend, but he continued to show that he can provide Top 5 finishes and some dominator points at the 1.5-mile ovals. He now gets a to head to one of his best tracks. Blaney has finished seventh or better in four straight starts here, picking up a pair of Top 5s last year. He could once again be a contrarian source of dominator points.
Erik Jones ($8,400)
Jones finished 11th or better in eight of the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks a year ago, and he picked up where he left off with a Top 10 run at Atlanta last weekend. Dominator points aren’t a given by any means, but he does have Top 5 upside. If he starts outside the Top 10, Jones could be a great mid-priced addition to GPP lineups. If he starts deep in the field, his value only goes up.
Daniel Suarez ($7,700)
Sometimes a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered for a driver (ask Joey Logano). Well, Suarez looked comfortable in his Stewart-Haas Racing equipment at Atlanta last weekend, coming away with a Top 10. He needs a little place differential potential to become a worthwhile pick, but Suarez is a legitimate Top 10 threat priced below $8,000. Keep an eye on him.
Paul Menard ($6,900)
He’s surprisingly affordable for a driver who has an excellent resume at Las Vegas. Menard has compiled an 11.4 average finish over the last 10 races here, notching eight Top 15s and picking up a pair of Top 10s last year. Menard could end up being the steal of the weekend, and he is a no-brainer play in cash games if he starts in the middle of the pick or worse.
Chris Buescher ($6,500)
Fresh off a surprise Top 10 at Atlanta, Buescher could be an excellent low-priced play again this weekend. He finished 15th in both races at Las Vegas a year ago, gaining 13 spots in both races. If he starts outside the Top 25, I won’t hesitate to dial him up for some cap relief.
Sleeper Specials
Ryan Preece ($6,100)
A split second on pit road turned a Top 10 run into a smashed racecar at Atlanta, but I think the biggest takeaway was that Preece ran in the Top 20 all afternoon and kept working his way forward. He’s actually cheaper this weekend than he was for Atlanta, and I don’t think there is a cheaper option with a legitimate chance at a Top 15. Cross your fingers that he starts in the back half of the field and has some decent differential points available.
