The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is visiting Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400, and coming into the weekend, everyone was anticipating the debut of the complete 2019 rules package. It has certainly been an interesting experience so far, and while it is too early to make a definitive judgement without seeing the race itself, there is potential for these rules to cause a major shift in DFS strategy.
Personally, I was not a fan of whatever was going on in qualifying Friday. Admittedly, I’m old school. I liked the old, single-car qualifying sessions when drivers had to put it on the edge and only had one shot at getting it done. Friday, we had teammates drafting, random drivers trying to bum a draft off teammates and cars practically hitting each other to exit pit road in a certain order. I honestly don’t even know what I was watching, and I’d rather them just draw names from a hat.
However, the randomness of qualifying did shuffle up the starting lineup quite a bit. Yes, Kevin Harvick won the pole, and there are still plenty of familiar names starting up front. There are also more big names starting deeper in the field than usual at a 1.5-mile oval, and you have some unexpected drivers like David Ragan and Ty Dillon starting much better than they typically do.
The impact is two-fold. We now have a lot more points up for grabs in the place differential category. It also limits the cheaper options who are appealing to use, which will make it harder to load up on studs. I don’t know about you, but I’m not too excited by the idea of using Daniel Hemric or Ragan after they qualified fifth and sixth, respectively. I’ll also take a hard pass on Ty Dillon from a Top 15 spot.
Of course, the X-factor is going to be the action on the track Sunday. Maybe Harvick runs away with the race, and track position and dominator points remain king. Maybe the middle-tier drivers who qualified well are surprisingly competitive. Maybe the big names starting in the back can’t easily move through the field, and all those place differential points that seem to be staring us in the face aren’t such a sure thing after all.
We start finding out the answers to those questions Sunday afternoon, but until then, I’m banking on the big names continuing to deliver big results despite the new rules. Check out all of my top DFS plays for DraftKings for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
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Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($12,500)
We don’t know if passing the leader will be any easier with this package, but you have to feel pretty confident that Harvick will lead some laps after grabbing the pole for Sunday’s race. He has two wins in his last five starts at Las Vegas, leading more than 140 laps in both victories.
Brad Keselowski ($11,400)
For the second week in a row, Keselowski will start outside the Top 15, and for the second week in a row, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win. He has a 3.4 average finish over the last seven races at Vegas, winning three times and leading at least 75 laps in two of the last three races here. The added place differential upside only boosts his upside even further.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100)
Truex was one of the victims of Friday’s ridiculous qualifying session, but on the plus side, he now has tons of points to gain in the differential category. He will roll off 23rd, but he has finished in the Top 5 in four of the last five Vegas races, leading more than 90 laps twice in that stretch. He’s positioned to score a ton of points Sunday.
Cash Plays
Aric Almirola ($8,600)
Almirola has been a Top 15 machine since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, and Almirola logged seven Top 10s in the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks last year, finishing 10th and sixth in the two races at Las Vegas. Starting back in 25th, Almirola has a great chance at 40-plus points this weekend.
Kurt Busch ($8,200)
He hasn’t had the best luck at Las Vegas, but he’s still had solid speed. Plus, Busch doesn’t even need a great run to post a solid score after qualifying way back in 28th. He’s a Top 10-caliber driver, so 50-plus fantasy points aren’t out of the question. Throw in the fact that his price tag is low because of his past issues at Vegas, and Busch checks all the boxes this weekend.
Ryan Newman ($7,200)
Newman quietly finished in the Top 15 last weekend at Atlanta, and he’s been solid at Las Vegas in recent years. He has five Top 15s in the last six races here, including finishes of 11th and ninth last year. Newman will be starting way back in 29th, so you can’t ask for a safer floor. The price tag isn’t bad either.
Chris Buescher ($6,500)
He was DFS gold at Atlanta last weekend when he climbed from 30th to ninth, and Buescher could be headed for a similar performance Sunday. He qualified back in 27th, but he started 28th in both races at Las Vegas a year ago and went on to crack the Top 15 both times. Buescher looks like one of the safest sources of cap relief.
GPP Plays
Kyle Busch ($11,900)
Busch hasn’t been dominant at Las Vegas the last couple of years, but he tends to be one of the first to adjust to rule changes, and he’s starting third. If you are fading Kevin Harvick, Busch has to be on your short list of alternative dominators.
Ryan Blaney ($9,500)
Las Vegas has been one of his best tracks at the Cup level, and Blaney has four straight Top 10s here, including Top 5 finishes in both races last year. He’s starting 13th, so I think he will be overlooked a bit with so many big names starting deeper in the field. However, he showed last year and last weekend at Atlanta that he can lead some laps at these 1.5-mile ovals. Don’t rule out a Top 5 finish and some dominator points.
Denny Hamlin ($8,800)
Hamlin has been boom or bust at Las Vegas throughout his career, but this isn’t a bad price for a driver who is very capable of leading laps and winning Sunday. He’s also starting second, so Hamlin is in position to potentially jump out front early and start piling up dominator points. For less than $9,000, you may want to take a chance on him in a few lineups.
Erik Jones ($8,400)
For the second week in a row, Jones put himself in position to be an under-owned sleeper. Starting 18th, he doesn’t have the place differential potential of Almirola or Kurt Busch, but he’s been a Top 10 machine with Top 5 upside at the mile-and-a-half ovals. I love Jones as a pivot to the obvious mid-priced plays.
Daniel Suarez ($7,700)
His resume is inconsistent at this point, at best, but Suarez looked good in the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 last weekend at Atlanta. Whether Top 10 finishes are going to become the norm for him this year remains to be seen, but after he qualified 22nd, you may want to find out. Using in Suarez in place of Almirola, Kurt Busch or Newman is a gutsy call, but it could pay off.
Ryan Preece ($6,100)
His JTG Daugherty Racing teammate, Chris Buescher, is the safer play, but Preece is cheaper and was also looking at a Top 10 finish at Atlanta before an incident on pit road. Starting 24th, he has more than enough differential points available to post a solid score if he moves up inside the Top 20.
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