With another Daytona 500 in the books, we now turn our attention to Atlanta Motor Speedway and Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The race will be the first of the year at a mile-and-a-half track, and it will also be the first race featuring NASCAR’s reduced-horsepower package.
Normally, the 1.5-mile tracks tend to be great indicators of which drivers and teams are going to be at the top of the food chain, but the new rules package could have something to say about that. NASCAR’s goal is to keep the cars closer together, but it remains to be seen how the attempt to manufacture “exciting” racing will impact the action on the track.
I have a feeling that the top teams in the sport will still be able to spend their way to the front of the pack, but it may take some time. I also think we could see more wrecks and higher attrition, leading to some solid finishes from unexpected sources on any given week.
In the meantime, we have a bit of a mystery on our hands. Hopefully the weather cooperates, and we get a practice session and qualifying to try to sort things out, but either way, we are headed for an interesting weekend at Atlanta.
Make sure to check back this weekend for my final picks and updated lineup strategies. Until then, here is a closer look at the drivers I will have my eye on at DraftKings for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.
Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($12,200)
The new package looms large, but Harvick has been in a league of his own at Atlanta recently. He has led at least 116 laps in all five of his starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing, leading 181 laps in his win a year ago. Harvick leads all drivers in laps led and fastest laps run at Atlanta, so new rules package or not, you have to like his chances of piling up plenty of dominator points this weekend.
Joey Logano ($11,700)
Logano was a steady Top 10 performers at the mile-and-a-half tracks last year, and he only got stronger as the year went on. He finished the year with 10 Top 10s in the 11 races, leading more than 40 laps in four straight to close the year. He’s also been solid at Atlanta, notching six straight Top 15s at the track, including back-to-back sixth-place finishes.
Brad Keselowski ($11,100)
Atlanta’s weathered surface seems to suit his driving style, and Keselowski has led laps in in four of his last five starts at Atlanta, logging four Top 10s in that span. He won the 2017 race here and delivered a second-place finish last year, and he looks like one of the safest bets to contend for the win and provide some dominator points.
Value Plays
Ryan Blaney ($8,900)
Blaney had a tendency to be an all-or-nothing option at times last year, but he flexed his upside at the 1.5-mile ovals. He picked up five Top 5s in the 11 races, and he also led 124 laps. Blaney is one of the few drivers priced below the $9,000 mark with a decent chance at delivering dominator points. He needs to be on your radar heading into the weekend, especially for GPP contests.
Kurt Busch ($8,500)
Another mid-priced gem this weekend could be Kurt Busch. He is a three-time winner at Atlanta, and he is riding a streak of nine straight Top 15s at the track. He has cracked the Top 10 in his last three starts at AMS, leading more than 20 laps in three of the last four races. Busch actually ranks second among active drivers in laps led here, so he could provide some dominator points at a discounted price.
Erik Jones ($8,100)
Jones has finished in the Top 15 in both of his Cup starts at Atlanta, including an 11th-place finish in last year’s race. He went on to have a great year at the mile-and-a-half tracks in general, finishing 11th or better in eight of the 11 races and picking up a couple of Top 5s down the stretch. Jones has yet to provide dominator points on a consistent basis, but his Top 5 potential makes him worth a look at this price, especially if he has some place differential potential.
Alex Bowman ($7,300)
I know Bowman has yet to show consistency at the Cup level, but this is still an appealing price for a driver who has Top 10 upside. He finished 2018 with 11 Top 10s to be exact, and three of those came at 1.5-mile tracks. Bowman will be a no-brainer play if he has a mediocre qualifying run, but he could finish in the 30-point range even if he starts near the Top 10.
Paul Menard ($7,000)
Atlanta has been a decent track for Menard, and he has been able to finish inside the Top 20 in four of his last five starts here. Perhaps more importantly, he emerged as a legitimate Top 15 threat at the mile-and-a-half tracks last year in his first season with Wood Brothers Racing. Back in the No. 21 again in 2019, Menard could deliver a solid finish at a great price. I’ll be all over him if he starts in the back half of the field.
Ryan Preece ($6,400)
Preece avoided the carnage at Daytona on his way to a Top 10, but his first chance to really prove himself comes Sunday at Atlanta. He has shown he can win when given great equipment, and while JTG Daugherty Racing isn’t a powerhouse organization, I think the equipment is good enough to allow him to contend for Top 20s. Preece should at least be able to provide a mid-pack finish. It will all come down to his starting spot.
Sleeper Special
David Ragan ($5,800)
Qualifying will ultimately determine which low-priced plays deserve the most attention, but if starting position is relatively equal, Ragan would be my preferred pick. He has finished 23rd in the last two races at Atlanta, and he had eight Top 25s in the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks last year, including four Top 20s. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling, but his consistency is on another level compared to the rest of options in this price range.
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