The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is back in action this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and all the talk leading up to Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 has been about the new, reduced-horsepower package being used for the first time.
While everyone is waiting to see how the package will impact the action on the track, I’m not so sure Sunday’s race will be a precursor of what to expect. Atlanta has one of the oldest surfaces of any track on the schedule, and the heavy tire wear that results is going to put a premium on handling.
I think this could somewhat negate the effects of the rules package because drivers still won’t be able to hold the throttle on the floor for that many laps in a row. Next weekend’s race at Las Vegas could be a much different story, but as far as this Sunday’s race at Atlanta is concerned, I’m still expecting a lot of familiar faces to end up at the front.
With that in mind, I’m using my typical strategy for 1.5-mile tracks, targeting big names capable of piling up dominator points and any big names starting in the middle of the pack or deeper.
Check out all my picks for Sunday’s race, and make sure to set all your lineups at DraftKings for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta.
CLICK HERE TO PEEP OUR TOP-OF-THE-LINE 2019 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT!
Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($12,200)
Power steering issues made for a rough Friday, and Harvick only managed to qualify 18th. He worked out the kinks in final practice, and he promptly posted the fourth-best 10-lap average speed. Harvick has been so good on long runs at Atlanta in recent years, and he has led more than 100 laps in all five of his starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing. I’m not sure he has the best car, but between the place differential points and his dominator potential, he’s a strong bet to post one of the top scores.
Joey Logano ($11,700)
He had a big wiggle in qualifying that has him starting back in 27th, but during final practice, Logano looked like the driver who piled up 10 Top 10s in the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks a year ago. Even if he doesn’t manage a single dominator point, he could still top 50 fantasy points with place differential points alone.
Kyle Larson ($9,300)
Larson has had plenty of strong runs at Atlanta, including a runner-up effort a couple of years ago. He appears to have brought a fast car this weekend, especially on longer runs. Larson starts seventh, and I think he could be at the front in short order. I like his chances of piling up the most dominator points this weekend.
Cash Plays
Chase Elliott ($9,700)
He hasn’t jumped off the charts this weekend, but Elliott has a solid history at Atlanta, cracking the Top 10 in all three of his Cup starts. He will roll off 22nd Sunday, so he has plenty of differential points available to prop up his score. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t top 40 fantasy points.
Ryan Blaney ($8,900)
Blaney hasn’t shown blazing speed this weekend, but he was lurking just outside the Top 10 in final practice. Plus, we are talking about a driver who showed Top 5 upside at the intermediate ovals a year ago. After qualifying way back in 26th, he should be able to use the place differential category to post a strong score.
Daniel Hemric ($6,800)
We don’t have a lot of data to go on with Hemric, but the rookie put on a show in final practice, posting the eighth-best lap and fifth-best 10-lap average speed. Starting back in 28th, he only needs to sneak into the Top 20 to post a decent point, and Hemric appears to have a car capable of much more.
Chris Buescher ($6,200)
Buescher has a safe floor through the differential category after qualifying 30th, and while he doesn’t have a huge ceiling, he should be a safe, cheap option for cash lineups. He finished in the Top 25 in nine of the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks last year, and he showed Top 20 speed in final practice.
GPP Plays
Kyle Busch ($10,500)
He appeared to establish himself as the top dominator candidate this weekend, but he crashed his primary car late in practice and will be starting from the back in a backup car. The turn of events should drive down his ownership, but if the backup car is anything close to his primary, he could still rally to lead a bunch of laps and post a big score.
Clint Bowyer ($9,100)
Bowyer only has one Top 5 finish in 18 starts at Atlanta, but that came last year. He will roll off third Sunday, and while he topped the charts in final practice, he didn’t make a long run. There are plenty of reasons to be hesitant, but Bowyer could also be a surprise source of dominator points if you are willing to roll the dice.
Aric Almirola ($8,700)
He will be a high-risk, high-reward option starting from the pole, but it’s not like Almirola hasn’t been running well at the 1.5-mile tracks. After all, he finished 2018 with Top 10s in each of the final five races at mile-and-a-half tracks. We still don’t know how much clean air will mean with this rules package, but if Almirola can at least led a chunk of laps early and come away with a solid finish, he should still be a great mid-priced play.
Alex Bowman ($7,300)
His 16th-place qualifying effort should keep his ownership in check, but this is a solid price for a driver who showed Top 10 upside last year, especially after a strong showing in final practice. Bowman turned the 11th-best lap to go along with the sixth-best 10-lap average speed.
William Byron ($7,100)
Byron struggled at the 1.5-mile tracks as a rookie, but he did finish 18th in his Atlanta debut. He also ranked 14th in final practice and ranked in the Top 10 in 10-lap average speed. Starting in 17th, he doesn’t have enough differential upside to be an obvious pick, but he still has enough to deliver 30-plus fantasy points if he can back up his times and challenge for a Top 10.
