*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted
This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitcher and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash!
It’s great to be back after a week away in Arizona with the family. It was quite a week of baseball that I missed while I was away and I’m eager to get back into the swing of things (pun intended) with a good nine-game Monday slate, so let’s do it.
Top Pitchers
Aaron Nola (PHI)
Nola has gotten off to a rocky start, to say the least but he’s too good to continue this for much longer. While the Mets bats have been swinging well, they come in after getting shut down by Julio Teheran, shocker, but perhaps, more importantly, they played the Sunday night game and now travel to Philly for a quick turnaround against Nola who has pitched well against them in his career. In a matchup of two top young pitchers, I’ll lean on Nola to have his best start thus far at home where he’s been dominant over his short career.
Joey Lucchesi (SD)
If not for Nolan Arenado’s three-run home run yesterday, Colorado would’ve been dominated by Derek Holland which has been a trend thus far for the Rockies; Pitchers dominating them. Lefties, like Joey Lucchesi, San Diego’s starter tonight, have eaten the Rockies up. Colorado has posted a 27.8 percent K rate against lefties, an abysmal .253 wOBA, and a poor .118 ISO against lefties. Nolan is worrisome here considering how well he plays in San Diego, but outside of him, this Rockies lineup doesn’t scare me.
Yusei Kikuchi (SEA)
Kikuchi has looked halfway decent thus far through three starts although his defense has let him down a bit, notably against the White Sox two starts ago in Chicago. The Indians offense is a disaster, there are really no two ways about it and if not for the shitty Royals bullpen, they wouldn’t have scored eight runs yesterday. Cleveland has the second-highest K rate (33.1 percent), fourth-lowest team ISO (.085), and fourth-lowest wOBA (.254) against left-handed pitching. Kikuchi is a value SP2 to consider.
Bats to Build Around
My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables.
Joc Pederson (LAD)
Luis Castillo has gotten off to a great start this season handling left-handed bats much better than he did last year. The young righty allowed a .373 wOBA, 2.06 HR/9, and a 43 percent hard-contact rate to lefties in 2018. Those numbers, again, are much improved early on here, however, two of his three starts have come against two teams in the Pirates and Marlins who lack left-handed firepower. The Dodgers, however, do not lack dangerous left-handed bats including Pederson. Joc should leadoff tonight and he’s off to a great start with a .456 wOBA, .450 ISO, and 57 percent hard-contact rate against righties.
Travis Shaw (MIL)
Shaw has gotten off to a bit of a cold start this season but he’s simply to underpriced in a good matchup at home. Dakota Hudson has allowed a .568 wOBA and 53 percent hard-contact rate to lefties thus far through two starts. Shaw posted a .285 ISO and .374 wOBA, 48 percent fly-ball rate, 21 percent HR/FB rate, and 43 percent hard-hit rate last season against righties and it’s just a matter of time before he gets going.
Whit Merrifield (KC)
Whit has hits in 13 of 14 games this season with multiple hits in six of those games and also offers stolen base upside against Ervin Santana who has a history of struggling with holding runners. Santana was rocked in his first start of the season allowing seven earned runs, three home runs, and walking three in 3.2 innings.
Jose Abreu (CWS)
This Royals-White Sox game looks to be a good one to target for offense. As I already touched on Whit, Abreu finds himself in a good matchup against Heath Fillmyer and an atrocious Royals bullpen. on Hillmyer, he’s shown to have some trouble handling the reverse split, notably, last season when he allowed a .345 wOBA, 1.95 HR/9, and 45 percent hard-contact rate. Abreu has a .297 ISO and .328 wOBA against righties this season and ha a career .362 wOBA and .217 ISO against righties. In 90 career games against the Royals, Abreu has a .873 OPS, 20 doubles, and 18 home runs, including a home run in two of the three games these two teams, have played this season.
Quick Hits
Favorite value bat: Brian Anderson (MIA)
Low owned home run: Rhys Hoskins (PHI)
Weakest position (generally a spot where I’ll look for value): Shortstop – Jorge Polanco (MIN), Corey Seager (LAD), Andrelton Simmons (LAA)
GOOD LUCK!!
