Top Pitchers
Jack Flaherty (STL)
Flaherty, one of the better young up and coming arms in the game gets the start tonight against the Brewers, a team who he’s had recent success against. Last year he faced the Brewers three times with his best start coming in Miller Park. In that outing, he tossed seven innings of six-hit ball, allowed one earned run and struck out 13. In the other two starts combined, Flaherty went 11.1 innings, punched out 12, allowed seven hits, and three earned runs. At a reasonable price tag in a game that I expect the big Cards bats to show up in, I’m looking heavily at the young right-hander.
German Marquez (COL)
Speaking of young up and coming, Marquez turned a corner last season over the final two months over which stretch he was dominant virtually every start. It’s no secret that the Marlins will be a team to pick on regularly over the course of the season, just as Kyle Freeland turned in a very good outing against them yesterday. Pitching in a great environment, Marquez is a strong play and probably a popular one on this slate.
Joey Lucchesi (SD)
Lucchesi made two starts against the Giants last season and was productive in both. This is a great matchup for him tonight with a very good park shift against a Giants lineup that has trouble with left-handed pitching. Lucchesi had a 10.09 K/9 and a 48 percent ground ball rate at home last season.
Bats to Build Around
My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables.
Wil Myers (SD)
Myers got off to a good start to the season yesterday with an opposite-field home run against Madison Bumgarner as he’s continued to improve against left-handed pitching every season to this point. Last season Myers hammered lefties to the tune of a .344 wOBA, .224 ISO, 47 percent hard-hit rate, 30 percent fly ball rate, and 23 percent home run to fly ball rate; all of which are very telling in a matchup against Derek Holland, someone who’s struggled with right-handed hitters over the majority of his career. Specifically last season, Holland allowed a hard contact rate of 45 percent and a fly ball rate of 40 percent translating to a 13.3 percent home run to fly ball rate.
Matt Carpenter (STL)
The Carpenter play didn’t work out yesterday but I’m going right back to the well tonight. Freddy Peralta is an impressive young pitcher, but he had his struggled with lefties last season which should spell trouble in a park like Miller Park that caters to left-handed hitters and a place where Carpenter has thrived over his career. Against lefties, Peralta allowed a .374 wOBA, 47.7 percent fly ball rate, and 46 percent hard contact rate. The lower half of the Cards order produced yesterday but tonight I’m expecting the top half of the lineup to get going starting with Carpenter.
Nicholas Castellanos (DET)
Castellanos and the Tigers were dominated by Marcus Stroman yesterday while Castellanos had one of the Tigers four hits. Matt Shoemaker takes the mound tonight in his Blue Jay debut after spending his entire career in the Angels organization. Last year was mostly a wash for Shoemaker as he was injured early and came back late in the season to make six starts. Looking at his 2017 numbers, a year in which he made just 14 starts dealing with injuries as well, Shoemaker struggled with righties allowing a .338 wOBA, 1.90 home runs per nine innings, a 52.3 percent fly ball rate, and a 15.8 home run to fly ball rate. Castellanos showed good power splits against righties last season with a .205 ISO and 47.9 percent hard-hit rate. If Shoemaker should get into any trouble, Castellanos should see at-bats against a well-rested bullpen for Toronto that generally is not that good. In a good hitting environment in a good matchup, I’m looking at Castellanos tonight.
Michael Brantley (HOU)
Charlie Morton, tonight’s pitcher for the Rays was dominant last season as a member of the Astros. Morton’s strength was his ability to strike out batters at an alarmingly high clip, and he’s done so in back to back seasons resurrecting his career. However, Michael Brantley, one of the offseason additions to the Astros won’t be an easy K for Morton as he has been one of the toughest hitters to strike out in baseball over the past few seasons, specifically last year when he had just an eight percent K rate. Morton lives between 94-96 miles per hour on average with his four-seam fastball; velocity that Brantley has had no trouble handling over the last three seasons with a hard-hit rate of 43.6 percent and a wOBA of .372 against such pitches. Brantley also handles the sinker well, one of Morton’s more used secondary pitches with a 40 percent hard-hit rate over the same span. Brantley brings a lot of value tonight at $3,500 hitting fifth in a potent Astros lineup that was able to get to Blake Snell yesterday, including Brantley himself who went 2-4 with a home run.
Quick Hits
Favorite value bat: Jurickson Profar (OAK)
Low owned home run: Eduardo Escobar (ARI)
Weakest position (generally a spot where I’ll look for value): Shortstop – Andrelton Simmons (LAA), Marcus Semien (OAK), Chris Taylor (LAD)
GOOD LUCK!!
