Weather and Park Factors
All games play.
Pitchers
Top Tier
Mike Clevinger (CLE)
The Indians layed a big egg yesterday against Brett Anderson and the Athletics getting shut out at home, but tonight they’ll be ready to go against the Reds. More specifically, Sunshine will be ready to bounce back after two sub-par outings in a row. Clevinger has shown that he has the ability and the trust of his manager to go deep into games and throw a lot of pitches. He’s thrown over 100 pitches in 11 starts this season and has pitched into at least the seventh inning in 10 starts. In a game in which the Indians should provide some run support against a bad Reds team, Clevinger should provide a productive outing and come away with a win at a very reasonable price on both sites.
Jose Berrios (MIN)
I love the upside of Berrios, as always, but particularly in this spot against the Royals who are not the team that we’re used to seeing over the years. Berrios has been dominant at home this season with a 10.61 K/9, 31.2 percent K rate, and has allowed just .55 HR/9/ Over his last three home starts, Berrios has gone 22.1 innings, struck out 28, walked just five, allowed 14 hits and just three earned runs. The Royals rank near the bottom in virtually every offensive category against right-handed pitching and Berrios should have no problem carving through them tonight.
Also Consider
Gerrit Cole (HOU) – I don’t like him to pay off his salary on either site tonight against a dangerous A’s offense who are especially good on the road.
Top Tier Pitcher to Fade
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Until I see a Kershaw-esque performance, I’ll have a tough time paying up for him, especially when he’s going to be popular, and even if it’s against the fucking Padres.
Mid-Tier, Value, and SP2 Options
Chase Anderson (MIL)
Anderson has been good in three of his last four starts after going through a dreadful three-outing-stretch from the end of May until the second week of June. The Marlins have been a major pain in the ass lately but they’re due for a letdown game and to be shut down by a pitcher that nibbles around the strike zone and induces a good amount of soft contact and ground-balls. That’s what Anderson does and he’ll get a chance at home. I prefer him on FanDuel as a mid-tier play simply because on DraftKings he may be too cheap to fit in one of the guys up to with him.
Andrew Suarez (SF)
Over his last two starts, Suarez has performed well pitching in Coors Field and in Arizona going 13 innings with 11 strikeouts and just two runs allowed over that span. He faces the Cubs tonight at home, a ballpark that’s great for pitchers with the Cubs coming off of productive offensive homestand due for a letdown series because I simply don’t think they’re that good. At 8K on DK, he’s a reasonably priced SP2 option and on FD as a very inexpensive play that’ll allow you to pay up for big bats.
Also Consider
Ivan Nova (PIT) – Nova pitches well at home and faces but faces a Nats team that is hot offensively. At his salary on DK, you won’t need much from him to pay off his price tag and I think he keeps the Nats in check here. This could be a bit of a leverage play as well with the Nats likely drawing some decent ownership.
Pitcher to Fade in this Tier
Francisco Liriano (DET)
First off, he’s going to be chalk on DK because of his salary. That alone makes me want to run and hide because Liriano is hot garbage. The Rays are not as much of a pushover as everyone seems to think. They just got finished beating the shit out of the Mets in their last series and they have some guys like Cron, Ramos, Robertson, and even Jake Bauers that hit lefties well. No Liriano for me.
Favorite Stacks
Twins
The Twins bats woke up yesterday against the Orioles and it was a welcome site. Their offensive explosion could’ve been more substantial if not for two balls that were just missed for home runs; one by Dozier and one by Rosario. I’m loving the righties here against Duffy who gives up a ton of power production to the platoon split. Target Field favors right-handed hitters so guys like Dozier, switch hitters Eduardo Escobar, Robbie Grossman, and Jorge Polanco all line up as plays to consider. Mitch Garver is a cheap catching option on DK as well.
Indians
Cleveland didn’t show up yesterday against Brett Anderson putting them in a great spot to get back on track tonight. Anthony DeSclafani takes the mound and has struggled against lefties over his career. The Indians feature some potent left-handed bats with Frankie Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez at the top of the price chain. Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis slide in as value lefties to look at in a good left-handed hitters park.
Brewers
The park shift is a factor to consider with the Brewers here playing in pitcher-friendly Marlins park. If they were at home I’d like them a lot more. With that said, Jose Urena has given up a lot of production to lefties and the Brewers feature three key left-handed bats in Eric Thames, The Mayor, and Christian Yelich who makes his triumphant return to Miami. Jonathan Villar is a value option as a switch hitter as well as the recently acquired Brad Miller. Jesus Aguilar from the right side is having a career year and worth a look as well.
Hitters by Position
Wilson Ramos (TB) – Crushes lefties and faces a bad one in Liriano.
Yaz GranDong (LAD) – Has good numbers in PETCO Park and against the Padres in general. Also, in a limited sample is 4-14 with two home runs against PerDongo.
First Base
Yonder Alonso (CLE) – Love the value here and power upside he brings.
Matt Olson (OAK) – Low-owned play that has one of the best ISO’s against right-handed pitching in baseball.
Second Base
Brian Dozier (MIN) – He’s the first bat I’m locking in.
Jose Altuve (HOU) – Heating up with hits in five straight including a home run yesterday.
Third Base
Eduardo Escobar/ Jorge Polanco (MIN) – Both are eligible are third base and shortstop on DK, so you can play them both… like I PROBABLY will.
Travis Shaw (MIL) – 42 percent hard-contact rate over his last eight games.
Shortstop
Jurickson Profar (TEX) – Hits lefties well and with power.
Trea Turner (WAS) – Big time stolen base upside against Nova who’s slow as shit to the plate.
Outfield
Joc Pederson (LAD) – Big power against righties.
Christian Yelich (MIL) – Love this play returning home for the first time.
J.D. Martinez (BOS) – Day off yesterday, gets to face a mediocre lefty tonight. This has dong written all over it.
Starling Marte (PIT) – Coming off of a good series against the Phillies and is very cheap on FD.
Corey Dickerson (PIT) – 50 percent hard-contact rate over his last 11 games.
Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) – Keep getting on base in every game and hits lefties well.
