Happy Fourth of July, everyone. In this article, I’ll cover the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. games. Naturally, FanDuel’s early slate is only three games as they’ll an afternoon slate later on as usual. DraftKings’ early slate features all seven early games.
Weather and Park Factors
It’s hot. There’s your weather report.
Roof’s in Miami, Milwaukee, and Seattle should be closed.
Pitchers
Aaron Nola (CIN)
This is a good slate for pitching in my opinion and Nola is at the top of the list for me pitching at home against the Orioles. In Philly this season, Nola has a .227 wOBA against, 29.7 K rate, 54 percent ground ball rate, 5.2 percent walk rate, and 10.13 K’s/9. The Orioles have been a disappointment all season long, outside of Manny Machado and have a lineup that is full of strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Sign me up for Nola at home this afternoon.
Jose Berrios (MIN)
While the Brewers are a dangerous team hitting in a good ballpark at home, their lineup has been susceptible to the strikeout going down 25 percent of their plate appearances against righties by way of the K. Berrios has been a bit erratic at times but has also had some incredible starts. He has high strikeout upside as he’s struck out 10 or more hitters four times and has the ability to go deep into his starts throwing at least seven innings in nine of his starts. Berrios is a high upside play.
Sean Manaea (OAK)
Manaea has looked better in his last three starts after a rocky stretch since throwing his no-hitter. The Padres offense is one that we can pick on and thus Manaea is worth a look. He’s $1,000 less than Aaron Nola and $300 more than Jose Berrios on DK putting him right in the middle and likely with less ownership. In a good pitchers park against a bad offense, this is a good spot for a dominant performance from Manaea which would be his first since going 7.1 innings against the Royals on June 10th.
Jose Urena (MIA)
There’s nothing special about Jose Urena but he’s in play as an SP2 on DK at just $6,900. He doesn’t post high strikeout totals but he gets a ton of ground balls, over a 50 percent rate in fact. This Rays team is pesky but at his salary, Urena will serve as a viable SP2 value option.
Also Consider: Chase Anderson (MIL) – As an SP2 against an inconsistent Twins team.
Favorite Stacks
Phillies
Yefry Ramirez makes his third start for the Orioles after going 4.1 innings in his first and 5 innings in his last. The Phillies are a team that hits much better at home and will get to face Ramirez and the putrid Orioles bullpen. I’m looking at the top four hitters for the Phillies as usual; Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins Willie Mays Hayes, and Carlos Santana. Nick Williams and Scott Kingery will serve as value bats to look at in a great hitting environment.
Athletics
Luis Perdomo was called up from triple-A to make this start for Jordan Lyles who is on the DL. Perdomo has been around for a while and he’s nothing special. The A’s lineup is dangerous and they’ve hit a ton of home runs this season. A day game at home with warm weather should mean a high-scoring day against Perdomo for the A’s. There are four A’s with large sample sizes against right-handed hitters that have ISO’s of .200 or better; Khris Davis (.283), Matt Olson (.262), Jed Lowrie (.243), and Matt Chapman (.207). Oakland is very boom or bust as they live and die with the home run ball and I think they put up some runs in this spot.
Tigers
I’ve been very vocal about how much I hate Jose Quintana and how much I think he sucks. When he had his ONE good year with the White Sox he was literally the biggest fraud going. In 18 starts against the Tigers, who he obviously saw a lot as a White Sock, Quintana has a 4.37 ERA and has allowed 130 hits and 11 home runs in 111.1 innings pitched. The Tigers have some guys that can hit lefties well, including Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, and James McCann to name a few. Some will roster Quintana on DK as an SP2 play thus making the Tigers come in way low owned. I like the upside here.
Hitters by Position
Catcher
Willson Contreras (CHC)-.443 wOBA and .261 ISO over his last six games.
Kurt Suzuki (ATL) – Good production against Sabathia lifetime going 11/39 with three doubles and four home runs.
First Base
Matt Olson (OAK) – Over his last 13 games, Olson has a 55 percent hard-hit rate and a 46 percent ground-ball rate.
Logan Morrison (MIN) – Cheap power-upside in a good park for lefties. Has a 62 percent fly-ball rate over his last 10 games.
Second Base
Cesar Hernandez (PHI) – He’s been on base in seven straight games, has power upside, and should score some runs today.
Jed Lowrie (OAK) – Scorching hot over his last six games with a .591 wOBA, .450 ISO, and 47 percent hard-hit rate.
Third Base
Matt Chapman (OAK) – Great reverse-splits power, good salary on both sites.
Christian Villanueva (SD) – .469 wOBA and .466 ISO against lefties. 11 of his 16 home runs have come against southpaws.
Shortstop
Addie Russell (CHC) – Hitting the ball hard of late and always hits lefties well.
Jorge Polanco (MIN) – He’s played two games since returning from a PED suspension. He’s priced well at a shitty position in a great hitters park.
Outfield
Khris Davis (OAK) – Massive power vs righties, day-game weather, he homers.
Nicholas CasteDongos (DET) – Hammers lefties, has a .407 ISO in his last seven games, has good numbers against Quintana, no one will roster him
Ian Happ (CHC) – Hit a home run against a lefty the other day and has a .510 wOBA with a .238 ISO in his last six games.
Max Kepler (MIN) – Good value and has been hitting the ball hard (94 mph average exit velocity, 57 percent fly-ball rate) over his last 12 games.
Justin Upton (LAA) – 9/23 with a double, triple, and home run against Leake with just three strikeouts in 28 plate appearances.
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) – Was locked in last night from his second at-bat on hitting the ball hard and putting good at-bats together.
Good Luck!
