Weather and Park Factors
All games play.
Very warm temperatures on the East coast which will benefit offenses. The Mets at Marlins game will have a closed roof.
Pitchers
Jacob deGrom (NYM)
deGrom was scratched from last nights start due to a family issue but is slated to start tonight against the Marlins in Miami. He’s faced the Marlins twice this season and has seen mixed results. In his last outing, which came at home a little over a month ago, deGrom went seven innings with eight strikeouts and no earned runs. I think we see a similar line this afternoon; seven innings, seven to nine K’s and a run or two. The question is whether or not the Mets bullpen will be able to hold a lead if he gets one from the piss poor Mets offense. In that last start against Miami, he was NOT rewarded with a win.
Justin Verlander (HOU)
JV has been great all year, but I’m not so high on him here. For whatever reason, the Rays have been a major pain in the ass whenever they’ve faced good pitchers and good teams in general. On paper, the Astros should beat the piss out of the Rays, but who the hell cares about paper? In the last two nights, the Rays have given the Astros everything they have and have split losing 1-0 on Thursday and winning 3-2 last night. Gerrit Cole was not on top of his game last night, due in part to the peskiness of the Rays. JV is a fine option to consider, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, if I had to choose between him and deGrom tonight, I’d lean deGrom.
Vinnie Velasquez (PHI)
Vinnie has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts with strikeout totals of seven, eight, and six respectively allowing two or fewer runs in two of those three outings. He faces the Nats who, if you hadn’t heard by now beat the shit out of Nick Pivetta and the Phillies pen last night. For that reason, no one will go with Vinnie today. I will, though, especially on FD at 8.2K which will allow me to get the big bats that I want in. If the Nats go bananas again, I’ll take my L, but I don’t see it happening and Vinnie has looked confident and determined in his last three starts against the Yankees, Cardinals, and Rockies which all came at home.
Tyler Skaggs (LAA)
Skaggs is expensive on both sites sitting at 9.8K on FD and 11.1K on DK. He’s been pitching out of his mind over his last four starts going at least seven innings in three of those outings with eight strikeouts in three and allowing a total of two earned runs. The Orioles have been a team that has struggled with left-handed pitching all season long and Skaggs, who has made his last three starts on the road, will look to continue his good fortune away from home.
Favorite Stacks
Angels
Andrew Cashner is due to get destroyed and this game, at home, in the heat, against the Angles is where he gets rocked… again. Trout (no shit), Upton, and Kinsler are the three big bats that I like here. Also look at Albert Pujols and if Kole Calhoun leads off again he’s a good value piece with some power, as well as Martin Maldonado on DK at catcher. The Angels will benefit from getting a guaranteed ninth-innings at-bat and facing a bad Orioles bullpen.
Phillies
Overshadowed by the Nationals 17-run explosion, the Phillies scored seven runs last night giving them 14 runs in their last three games. The Nats are tossing Jeremy Hellickson out today who is making his first major league appearance since June 3rd. The top four of the Phillies have all been productive of late; Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Willie Mays Hayes (who’s cooled off a bit but profiles well here), and Carlos Santana. You can consider Scott Kingery and Maikel Franco at value pieces to fit into this stack, but I wouldn’t avoid the top four unless you absolutely can’t fit them in.
Brewers
The top/middle of the lineup hasn’t done much for the Brewers in this series, yet, outside of a three-run home run by Thames against the bullpen on Thursday as well as a solo shot by Aguilar in the first inning of that same game. I love Thames again who has killed the Reds over the last two season. Aguilar is red-hot overall and has hit for big-time power against righties. Ryan Braun is the guy we have to wait and see on. He left last nights game early and since he’s basically an old man now, he likely won’t play which really fucking sucks, especially since Christian Yelich is already out. Reds starter Tyler Mahle has been rocked by lefties this season which makes Travis Shaw and Johnny Villar come into play. Assuming that Braun and Yelich are out, Thames, Shaw, Villar, and Aguilar are my top bats with Manny Pina and Keon Broxton serving as value options.
Hitters by Position
Catcher
Tucker Barnhart (CIN) – Chacin struggles against lefties, has allowed nine earned runs and two home runs in his last 10 innings in Cinci, and Barnhart has been hitting second.
Roberto Perez (CLE) – Value bat that gives you Indian exposure.
First Base
Eric Thames (MIL) – .338 average and 13 home runs in 20 games lifetime against the Reds.
Justin Bour (MIA) – Contrarian play that has hit deGrom very well.
Second Base
Johnny Villar (MIL) – Great price on FD as a one-off or part of a Brewers stack.
Cesar Hernandez (PHI) – He’s been on base in nine of his last ten games.
Third Base
Geno Suarez (CIN) – Hitting the ball hard with an average exit velocity of 98 miles-per-hour over his last 13 games.
Alex Bregman (HOU) – No one hotter than him right now at the position.
Shortstop
Andrelton Simmons (LAA) – Hits in each of his last six games, including eight in his last three games with a home run.
Jose Peraza (CIN) – Stolen base upside, hits in four straight games with multiple hits in three of those.
Outfield
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) – Heating up with three home runs in his last three games and just two strikeouts over that span.
Justin Upton (LAA) – Hitting the ball hard, just not getting much lift on it. Look for him to drive one of those Cashner sinkers out to left-center.
Scott Schebler (CIN) – Power bat against Chacin who struggles with lefties.
Jesse Winker (CIN) – Cheap exposure to this game, should do damage against Chacin, risky because after Chacin exits don’t expect much from Winker.
Josh Reddick (HOU) – Really cheap on FD and could hit cleanup again.
Matt Joyce (OAK) – Value platoon-bat with a 99 mile-per-hour average exit velocity since returning from injury.
Keon Broxton (MIL) – Two home runs yesterday, has show streaky power in the past, more of a salary saver high-upside play than anything else.
