After doing months and months of football research, it is time to get a handle on draft flow while ultimately developing a draft plan. At the same time, identifying key players in favorable areas of the draft will help build the roster’s backend.
Here’s a look at a July 26th Online Championship draft board:
My first observation is that 11 running backs get drafted over the first 14 picks. Contests in the Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) favor wide receivers by having two flex positions in their starting lineup.
In 2019, six running backs scored over 290.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues compared to five in 2018. Last year Michael Thomas (375.50 fantasy points) was the only impact wide receiver. The second-highest scoring wide receiver was Chris Godwin (276.10), who missed two-plus games.
Based on this info, it makes sense to roster front end running back talent while knowing there is upside/value at the wide receiver position.
Rather than look at each roster, I’m going to focus on the team building from each third of the draft.
Draft Picks 1 through 4
There is no doubt three of the first four draft selections will be running backs in 2020 in a PPR format. Michael Thomas should be a lock to be drafted in the top four picks, especially in the high dollar leagues and in this format. The faint of heart will also rotate in Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and possibly Derrick Henry.
Henry doesn’t fall into the elite pass-catching mode, which hurts his ceiling. His ability to score touchdowns and make big plays (11 over 20 yards and four over 40 yards) does invite a high-floor. In essence, Henry is the new version of Adrian Peterson as far as his role in the Titans’ offense. Peterson caught over 30 passes three times in his career with his best two years in 2009 (46) and 2012 (40). Over his first 62 games in the NFL, Henry has 57 catches. Last year he finished with 18 catches for 206 yards and two TDs. In his career, he averages 10.1 yards per catch.
On the two/three turn, three owners pushed on a second running back, and three added a wide receiver. Team 1 chose to take an edge at tight end, and Team 4 snatched up Lamar Jackson to pair with his two wide receivers.
The three running backs drafted were Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, and Todd Gurley. All three players have question marks.
Taylor is a favorite of Frankie Taddeo in 2020. I question his value on passing downs and how many touches Indy gives Marlon Mack the ball in the run game. In a way, Taylor may have a similar role/opportunity as Derrick Henry. The Colts have a developing top offensive line, Taylor has the speed and power to dominate when he finds daylight inside.
So the question here comes, is this group of running back better than the options on the four/five turn (Mark Ingram, Chris Carson, J.K. Dobbins, David Montgomery, and Cam Akers). In all cases, I would say yes, based on passing catching and possible scoring ability.
For me, the best option in this area of the draft at running back will be D’Andre Swift. If the NFL played a full season of preseason games, Swift would showcase his pass-catching and play-making pushing him up draft boards.
In comparison, the top six wide receivers with a chance to be available in this area of the draft would be Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Stefon Diggs, and Devante Parker.
Kupp would be a clear edge for me, but he’ll rarely slide to a draft from a front position. Allen has the top resume, but he’s discounted due to the downgrade at quarterback for the Chargers.
I would say this: the wide receiver options will be active while a player like Dobbins may need time to become playable. (In this draft, Team 4 just about locked all the rushing yards and rushing touchdowns by selecting Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and J.K. Dobbins). Last year the Ravens’ rushers gained a combined 3,303 yards with 21 rushing TDs plus 49 catches for 409 yards and five TDs. Baltimore may very well score over 30 touchdowns in 2020 from the combination of their running backs and Jackson on the ground.
On the six/seven turn from a front draft position, I’m not excited about the wide receivers available:
- Will Fuller (injury history)
- Jamison Crowder (possession receiver)
- Diontae Johnson (emerging player as long as he holds off James Washington)
- Darius Slayton (upside for sure while battling two other WRs and a good tight end for targets)
- Deebo Samuel (injured while expecting to miss four games)
- Christian Kirk (like his passing catching ability, but DeAndre Hopkins will command the ball, and Larry Fitzgerald isn’t going away)
The gift/best value at wide receiver has to be Brandin Cooks. He was the 42nd wide receiver drafted by Team 11 in the seventh round.
After four straight seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving, Cooks lost his way in 2019 (42/583/2). His year started with three reasonable games (3/74/1, 8/112, and 6/71) over his first four starts. He left Week 8 early due to a concussion, which led to two missed games. In essence, Cooks offered no playable fantasy value over his final ten games (23/287/1 on 41 targets).
The trade of WR DeAndre Hopkins creates a massive opportunity for one or more wide receivers for Houston. Over the past three seasons, Hopkins caught 315 passes for 4,115 yards and 31 TDs, which was 49.1 percent of the WR catches (641), 49.6 percent of the WR receiving yards (8,299), and 54.4 percent of the WR TDs (57) for the Texans over this span.
If Cook can retain 75 to 80 percent of the WR1 targets for the Texans, he’ll push way back up the wide receiver rankings. Before last year, his catch rate (65.9) graded well while delivering 24 catches over 40 yards. He didn’t miss a game from 2015 to 2018, which led to 29 TDs in 64 games.
The top six running backs available on this turn were:
- Damien Williams (split role)
- Raheem Mostert (late blooming explosive player who worked out his contract issues)
- James White (top pass-catching back, but no Tom Brady does factor into his role)
- Ronald Jones (could be a steal or a bust, which comes down to his role on passing downs)
- Derrius Guice (injury-prone, explosive player)
- Tarik Cohen (RB2 for the Bears with a high floor in catches)
In PPR formats, pursuing an RB3 with pass-catching value usually makes sense, which would point me toward White or Cohen.
One last note about QBs before moving on to the middle of the draft in the first round:
Drafting a quarterback comes with many ideas in mind. If you play in a home league and feel you have an edge in your knowledge of the player pool, it makes sense to take a quarterback early.
If playing in the FFWC, the quarterback position will be available at a discount across the board. Almost all owners will opt to wait at the position. This change in draft flow allows each drafter to build their RBs, and WRs before diving into the quarterback pool. In most football seasons, an impact quarterback or two can be drafted after round 10.
The key here is patience while understanding the tendencies of your league-mates.
Draft Picks 5 through 8
If Michael Thomas happens to slide passed the fourth draft pick, I would consider him a steal and a slam dunk at the fifth pick.
In this draft, all four owners from Pick 5 to 8 focused on landing a lead RB1 – Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon.
The run on running backs early in the draft favors the team building from a middle draft position at this point in the draft season. DeAndre Hopkins has an exceptional resume in the NFL with multiple seasons with over 300 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Kenny Golladay should all score touchdowns while catching plenty of balls, leading to many passing yards. There is also a chance that Tyreek Hill slides to this area in some drafts.
Travis Kelce remains the top tight end, and he is a difference-maker at his position. The key to drafting a tight end early in this format is to see the opportunities at a wide receiver and push back the RB2 and quarterback positions. Team 5 executed this plan over the first six rounds.
- Stud RB1 (Alvin Kamara)
- Edge at Tight End (Travis Kelce)
- Four straight wide receivers (Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Chark, and A.J. Green)
- Wait in RB2 (Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack, Jordan Howard)
- Wait on his quarterback (Matt Ryan in the 11th round)
I also thought Team 8 had an excellent start over four rounds.
- Joe Mixon (Rising player with a new quarterback and strength on the roster at wide receiver)
- Kenyan Drake (three-down ability while playing in a developing offense)
- Odell Beckham (love/hate player with exceptional talent if the Browns show improvement in their quarterback play)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (an absolute steal in the fourth round)
Heading into 2019, Smith-Schuster was a lockdown top-12 wide receiver in all drafts after an exceptional 2018 season (111/1426/7). Last year he struggled with injuries while playing with Moe, Larry, and Curly at quarterback after the injury to Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2. By the live draft season in September, I expect Smith-Schuster to be selected on the two/three turn from the front of the draft. The Steelers will throw the ball, and I expect a bounce-back season.
There were great options in the third and fourth rounds at running back and wide receiver in this draft.
- Allen Robinson (excellent step forward last year in his catch-ability while playing in an offense that failed to live up to expectations)
- A.J. Brown (my breakout player of the year)
- D.J. Moore (on a path for a 100 catch season)
- Adam Thielen (coming off an injury season after a great two great years – 91/1276/6 and 113/1373/9)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (in the right offense to be a stud while showing value as a pass-catcher last season in college – 55/453/1)
- Le’Veon Bell (some with fade, but he’ll catch the ball and get plenty of catches)
- Melvin Gordon (in a split role for a rising offense, Gordon will score TDs and catch balls)
- David Johnson (the Texans will give him every chance to succeed this year, and he’ll be active in the passing game)
From rounds five through seven, there is an excellent pocket of wide receivers with a balance or resume and upside. Here are some of my best/favorite options over this span:
- Calvin Ridley (looks poised to push to an elite level in 2020)
- Cooper Kupp (high volume pass-catcher with scoring ability)
- Tyler Lockett (up and down from opportunity from week to week, but the results will be much better than his draft value)
- Jarvis Landry (most overlooked wide receiver over the past couple of seasons)
- Jerry Jeudy (hit the ground running player who will be a factor in his rookie season)
The slam dunk for me at RB3/RB4 is Kareem Hunt. His pass-catching sets an excellent floor, and he will score touchdowns as well. If Nick Chubb has an issue, Hunt would be a lock to be a top ten running back.
David Montgomery looks serviceable as RB2 while falling short of expectation in his rookie season. Cam Akers is the right kind of target as the 27th running back off the board, and this owner wisely handcuffed him with the talented Darrell Henderson in the 11th round.
Four of the top eight draft slots rostered a quarterback in the eighth round.
- Team 4 (Russell Wilson)
- Team 5 (Josh Allen)
- Team 6 (Dak Prescott)
- Team 8 (Kyler Murray)
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Draft Picks 9 through 12
Over the first two rounds from a late draft position, there were five running backs drafted and three wide receivers. No team went with back-to-back wide receivers.
Miles Sanders is the sexy running back in this area after showing growth late in 2020.
Over the first ten games in a split role with RB Jordan Howard, Sanders gained about 69 yards per game with two TDs and 24 catches.
With Howard out of the picture, he helped the Eagles playoff berth with success over his next five contests (588 combined yards with four TDs and 23 catches) on 21.2 touches per game. Sanders played at the highest level in Week 15 (172 combined yards with two TDs and six catches) and Week 16 (156 combined yards with a TD and five catches).
Sanders finished 15th in RB scoring (219.8) in PPR leagues while being on the field for 53 percent of the Eagles’ RB plays. At a minimum, Sanders will see a 20 percent growth in touches (229 in 2019) this year.
Aaron Jones looks to be the value (RB12) after his breakout last year. He is in a contract year while owning the skill set to improve in the passing game. Green Bay invested highly in A.J. Dillon (second round in 2020), which points to Jones finding a new home in 2021.
I’d give the Davante Adams/Aaron Jones team a slight edge over the Miles Sanders/Tyreek Hill team.
There isn’t talent at running back on the three/four turn for a team to start with two wide receivers and get out at running back.
In this format, I’m not a fan of four straight running backs (Team 11), but his decision making and the draft flow led to him finding three undervalued wide receivers (T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry, and Brandin Cooks). He then doubled down on quarterback (Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady), which may have cost him the finishing piece to the puzzle.
The most significant reach for me came from Team 10 for Tyler Higbee. I know he played well last year, and he could have follow-through. The question comes from rostering two TEs (Mark Andrew in the fifth) over the first seven rounds while also investing early in a quarterback (Patrick Mahomes). I love D’Andre Swift where he got him (6.3), and his choices at wide receiver (Henry Ruggs, N’Keal Harry, Justin Jefferson, and Michael Pittman) from round 8 to round 11 all have upside.
On the five/six turn from a late position, the running back and third wide receiver positions dry up. I’d rather position my team to look for a tight end or wide receiver in picks seven and eight.
Best value at wide receiver after round 7
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL
When getting ready for the upcoming football season, there are two levels of research. First, a fantasy owner needs to get in tune with each player’s history and market value. The next step is figuring out how each player fits in their offense. When doing this, reflecting on last year’s stats is a good starting point.
Lamb won’t be a breakout by name, but he will be by his early draft value (pick 90 as the 44th wide receiver drafted).
Last year the Cowboys moved to second in the NFL in passing yards. They already have two top wide receivers (Amari Cooper – 79/1189/8 and Michael Gallup – 66/1107/6). Some fantasy owners will struggle to see enough targets for Lamb in his rookie season.
This year Lamb directly replaces WR Randall Cobb (55/828/3 on 83 targets), plus Dallas lost TE Jason Witten (63/529/4 on 83 targets). Dallas should push higher offensively, and Lamb looks to be a lock for 100 targets in his rookie season.
In 2020, Lamb will face single coverage on many plays. He has the talent to win in the deep passing game or the open field with his legs, never mind the built-in upside if one of the top two Cowboys’ WRs had an injury.
Gift that keeps on giving (Stash him!)
RB Damien Harris, NE
Heading into 2020, the Patriots have the stigma of being one of the worst offenses in the NFL after losing QB Tom Brady. Despite their offseason questions, they remain co-favorites in the AFC East with a proven 20-year history of success. The addition of Cam Newton does bring experience to their offense while also showing upside in wins over multiple seasons.
Last year I viewed Harris as the top running back in the draft, but he finished with only four catches for 12 yards while battling a couple of injuries.
RB Sony Michel lost his college explosiveness in his sophomore season in the NFL while also having foot surgery in late May. He gained only 3.7 yards per carry with only three of his 247 runs gaining over 20 yards.
Harris showed big-play ability over his last three years at Alabama (6.8 yards per rush) while adding growth in the passing game (22/204) in 2018.
SEE MORE
2020 Rankings & Projections
2020 Team Outlooks
