Dongers Club – August 11th – Main

WEATHER

Boston @ Baltimore … This is the second game of a day night doubleheader and there will be rain moving into the area mid-way or later in the game.  It looks like it should play without a PPD risk but as we get closer to lock it’s worth monitoring.

PITCHER RANKINGS

MY PITCHERS

Projected DK Ownership….   Nola (60%), Flaherty (35%), Bauer (15%), Morton (5%)

1. Aaron Nola … Nola’s criminally free on DK today at sub 10k and pitching in PETCO park against the Padres.  He’s the best pitcher in the NL this year and he’s got a soft match-up.  No reason to fade him tonight unless you think he gets hurt or have inside information that he was drinking south of the border last night.
2. Trevor Bauer … Bauer has a money spot, but his price and the fact that Nola is much cheaper doesn’t make him the most optimal play.  He’s got some consideration only from an ownership perspective.
3. Dan Straily … Sometimes people read way too much into game logs against prior teams without understanding the context (no, this isnt a shot at myself on Maeda), but what really jumps out at me about Straily’s good history vs the Mets (for him) is that he’s gone DEEP into the games with well over 100 pitches despite racking up the walks.  Straily’s always a guy I worry about getting out of the game in the 5th inning with massive trouble but Saturday night in Miami he’s someone I’m really leaning on having a ton interest in.
4. Danny Duffy … Duffy is my contrarian pivot off the Flaherty chalk.  I think the Royals will be pesky against Jack and Duffy — being a lefty — should get some favorable matchups against the Cardinals tonight and pitch good.  It’s a Duffster Day.

 

STACK TARGETS

Projected 20% Chalk:  Boston, Cleveland, Coors, Brewers Lefties

 

MY FAVORITES

Milwaukee … Thames, Yelich, Shaw, Moustakas, Prince Fielder … they’re all in elite spots tonight against Julio who doesn’t give up many hits but when he does they’re usually leaving the ballpark.

Boston … Do you need analysis?   It’s Pearce night.

Atlanta … Good sneaky team against lefties and Miley is getting some interest given how much better he is pitching this year.  That said, the bottom of the order is where I ride the Braves when facing a lefty.  Camargo and Suzuki.   Duvall-Camargo-Suzuki

 

SNEAKY

Houston … Houston is my sneaky team to break out tonight.  I love Bregman and Correa and expet Wade LeBlanc to be out by the third inning and Gurriel is a good value play at 1st tonight.

Oakland … They’ve always been a great HR team away from home and even in LA this year they’ve gone off.  Chapman and Davis are on fire.

 

MY FADES

1. St. Louis Cardinals EXCEPT Paul DeJong who I like tonight and would use as a one off
2. Cleveland Indians

 

POSITIONAL ANALYSIS

CATCHER 

1. Kurt Suzuki
2. Jorge Alfaro
3. Austin Barnes

FIRST BASE

This is not a good spot today as I don’t wanna use Edwin on the road and while we can play Thames here on DK, it’s a spot to consider fading on FD where we might go with a cheaper catcher.

1. Freddie Freeman
2. Steve Pearce — He homers in the nightcapper
3. Lucas Duda
4. Yulieski Gurriel

SECOND BASE

Thin position as usual, Shaw should be in the lineup today and would be the player to start with.

1. Travis Shaw
2. Jed Lowrie
3. Brock Holt — batting 2nd in the night cap and will be chalk

THIRD BASE

This is a loaded position today and a tough one to narrow down.  All four of these guys have nice HR situations today and assuming Bregman remains at the top of the order in Houston he is one who stands out as contrarian today for me to have a big game.

1. Justin Turner
2. Alex Bregman
3. Johan Camargo
4. Mike Moustakas

SHORTSTOP

Paul DeJong is the biggest threat to Duffy tonight.  He’s recently adjusted the placement on his hands per the advice of a teammate and he has responded by going 5 for his last 16 with 2 doubles and 2 homers in that stretch.  A good hitter vs LHP he should be in the lineup tonight.

1. Paul DeJong
2. Manny Machado
3. Carlos Correa

OUTFIELD – Tier 1

1. Christian Yelich
2. Matt Kemp
3. Rhys Hoskins
4. Adam Duvall

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

1. Eric Thames
2. Ronald Acuna
3. Lorenzo Cain

OUTFIELD – Tier 3

1. Alex Gordon
2. Harrison Bader
3. Brett Phillips
4. Kike Hernandez
5. JBJ … Awesome…. The game that isnt on ANY slate is the one the JBJ in Baltimore narrative comes through and he did it with 2 homers….  This is TOTALLy me chasing.

DONGERS CLUB

1. Alex Gordon – OF – Chairman
2. Adam Duvall – OF
3. Matt Kemp – OF
4. Manny Machado – SS
5. Alex Bregman – 3B
6. Travis Shaw – 2B
7. Steve Pearce – 1B
8. Kurt Suzuki – C
9. BONUS …………………….. Christian Yelich – OF