There are four games on the early slate(s) today and that’s nice of both sites to have the same early slate. It’s a really good one, we have been lacking in quality afternoon slates this year but this (to keep in the theme of this week it seems) is another one of those old school throw back early slates. Day games in Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago and Oakland. If only it were Thursday….
The weather is good in all four spots, so no issues there. Wind is blowing out in Wrigley and it’s 80+ degrees as well.
PITCHING
- Chris Archer … Archer for only 8600 on this slate is likely your chalk SP that we don’t need to worry about fading. The Twins offense isn’t as good and although Miguel Sano potentially going on a HR streak does give me some scare, it’s not enough to drop Archer down below as the top ranked guy today. Forget the $ savings off Berrios, he should strike out more and has a better team supporting him to get the win. I do not hate the idea of game-stacking the arms here if just looking at it in a vacuum as nobody has better “talent” on the slate than Berrios — but pricing means we should pick only one and Archer is that guy.
- Jose Berrios … He’s neck and neck with Archer and is normally dominant at home, if you have the $ leftover to get him, I wouldn’t hate it today.
- Brett Anderson … Now this is the type of 4500 cheap SP2 I can get on board with. Not these rookies making their first or second starts and people chasing their minor league “numbers” as if they’re going to be the next elite SP and trying to look cool rostering them at near 50% ownership. Anyways. Anderson is someone I normally feel is trouble because he was Rich Hill before Rich Hill became Rich Hill and by that I mean he was always one pitch away from having his arm or head fall off and going on the 60-day DL and I just wanted no part of the guy.
I think that Junior Guerra and Kyle Hendricks should pitch well but don’t have the ceiling to do enough. Both will give up too many hits and walks to make them trust worthy on DK.
UPDATE — With lineups out and doing some roster construction using my favorite plays I am leaning Berrios + Anderson as my SP combination but I also wouldn’t hate going Archer+Hendricks if you just want to ‘play it safe’ as they say….
TARGET OFFENSES
Let’s try a little exercise here today as we constantly evolve the article’s and picks to help folks out. If I were reading something and it listed stacks and simply mentioned the team name I wouldn’t find that very helpful. So here’s the teams I like and who the core players are from those teams I like. Specifically 2 guys from each spot. Start with that when building a lineup, then if the position availability elsewhere dictates adding a third or fourth player in from those teams then add them as per the list…. But don’t immediately start with a team and say okay I gotta get 4 guys from them.
Chicago White Sox … Abreu, Palka (Sanchez, Delmonico)
Why: Because people are complaining about them in slack…. No, seriously. Abreu, Palka are the guys I really like here. The Tigers have been pitching Abreu down and in all year to off-set him destroying them (.400+ hitter lifetime against Tigers coming into the season) and he has now adjusted and they can’t get him out cleanly anymore. Daniel Palka on the other hand hits everything hard and especially RHP and he is the new Abreu as he is hitting hear .500 off Tigers pitching this year. If you don’t buy into player vs team splits then you should be. Teams have scouting reports on players and how to pitch them and this is a clear case of the Tigers not knowing how to get Palka out yet. These two are my core from the White Sox and I wouldn’t mind adding in Delmonico and Yolmer Sanchez at the top of the lineup.
Oakland Athletics … Lowrie, Davis (Chapman, Olson, Martini)
Khris Davis in a day game against a RHP at home? Sign me up. Jed Lowrie falls into that Abreu/Palka type theory of players the opposing team just cannot get out. He has 7 multi-hit games this year versus Seattle and four home runs and is drawing the benefit of hitting between a white hot Matt Chapman and Khris Davis. Like Lowrie a ton today.
Brewers/Cubs … Braun, Baez (Yelich, Schwarber)
The Brewers and Cubs series to me feels like it will be low scoring, but the weather here and the lineups that are out will warrant using some one off’s from this game. For Milwaukee Ryan Braun remains locked in when he is in Wrigley Field and hats clean-up today after his multi-HR game yesterday. On the Cubs side, Javy Baez should be very chalky leading off as he is the latest “good” player to slide into the lead off role and I don’t see any reason not to expect him to homer off Junior G today. Both pitchers are in the sneaky category so you’ve gotta decide which side of the fence you wanna go here.
POSITIONAL RANKINGS
CATCHER: James McCann at home in a day game vs a lefty is someone we always like to roster and at $2800 also gives us a good value play at catcher. Willson Contreras would be in a spot to have a huge game if you believe the Cubs could go off, but they have hardly done that all year so I don’t see why we would force him in. Lucroy has good history vs Leake.
- James McCann
- Willson Contreras
- Jonathan Lucroy
FIRST BASE: There is no real value here at first base as everyone is priced around the same. Abreu is my play.
- Jose Abreu
- Anthony Rizzo
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE: I mentioned Jed as someone who is hot and killing the Mariners right now, but do not sleep on Travis Shaw either.
- Jed Lowrie
- Travis Shaw
THIRD BASE: Yolmer is someone to strongly consider for $3400 in a White Sox core today.
- Yolmer Sanchez
- Jeimer Candelario
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP: My plan here is to play Javy Baez at SS today on DK and slide Jed or Shaw in at 2B. Jose Iglesias is a cheap option off Baez, however this position is complete trash today.
- Javy Baez
- Jose Iglesias
- Adeiny Hechavarria
OUTFIELD – Tier 1: These are my favorite plays regardless of their price
- Nick Castellanos … Day game vs a Lefty at home? We’ve been here before. Yes, Rodon has been really good but the “Cat walk” is the reason we aren’t using him today.
- Daniel Palka
- Khris Davis
OUTFIELD – Tier 2: Good plays that fall below my personal favorites today…
- Kyle Schwarber
- Nelson Cruz
- Eddie Rosario
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier 3: Generally value plays
- Nicky Delmonico
- Nick Martini
- Mikie Mahtook
- Niko Goodrum
- Basically anyone named Nicky or Nicholas or Mikko, or Michaelangelo….
THE DONGERS CLUB
With only four games, we’re gonna pick one player per game to homer.
- Khris Davis – OF – Chairman
- Miguel Sano – 3B
- Kyle Schwarber – OF
- Daniel Palka – OF
