Let’s keep this train rolling along — it’s a 14 game slate tonight.
WEATHER
Some lingering showers in the NYM/BAL and BOS/PHI games and some rain in the TOR/KC game but I think all games should play.
PITCHING
This is a pretty interesting pitching slate. There’s a ton of guys grouped together in each tier to pick from and ultimately on FD it rarely benefits you to lock in on the top SP but rather win with your bats first and then take the best one left. On DraftKings though my approach in pitching is going to be driven by the bats that I select and then work off my rankings here to pick the optimal combination — I’ll update what my SP1/SP2 combination are once I see all the lineups tonight ….
HIGH RANGE
To keep with yesterday’s theme (and I guess Sunday night too with Hamels/Max) of a stud SP returning to dominant form (Kershaw) we have two guys at the top tonight who I think are prime to have very solid if not dominant performances. The difference today though is they’re not 10k flat on DraftKings and so fading them is much easier because we do have other options and the price tag is just a bit too much given lack of 4k arms to throw out there. That said …..
- Corey Kluber … Kluber in Cincinnati will draw a benefit of the Reds offense striking out at home more + getting to face a pitcher atleast once if not twice and this is a spot where Kluber really seems to be prime to throw up one of those double digit strikeout games that we frankly haven’t seen from him much this year. He’s cheaper than JV and Corbin which will drive his ownership up a little bit, however he would be the top arm for me to pick today…. UPDATE – Votto is in which reduces his K upside some..
- Justin Verlander … It’s tough for me to justify using him at 12.6k, but I wanted to say that I feel he’s going to bounce back today and pitch extremely well against a Rockies team that is wearing down and pretty cold right now. That said, he is going for win #200 and I feel like guys struggle for a little bit to get that milestone win. This is his second start attempting to get win #200….
MID RANGE
- Jameson Taillon … Prefer him over J.A. Happ in the same range who should be chalk today. JT has evolved into a solid all around ‘Pitcher’ meaning he’s not out there just to strike everyone out and he’s usually steady when he manages his control. This Minnesota lineup has lost some luster with the trades and JT is someone I really like today.
- JA Happ … He will be chalk in this range, his price is ideal and the matchup feels good for many. I don’t love him today to make him a must own, but he would be okay to fall back on.
- Alex Wood … Mr 6 innings, 100 pitches, 4-6 strikeouts and 2 earned runs. I like him to get some heavy run support tonight and give you exactly the stat line above.
- Jaime Barria … Barria struggles more with righties which is what most of the Padres lineup is. However, the Pads righties outside of Myers really don’t crush RHP that much and even in the case of Myers he isn’t as deadly at home.
LOW RANGE
Everything in this range is scary for me today.
- Lucas Giolito … Giolito has looked better at times and then at times he completely falls back to Implode Mode. I don’t think this is a really solid matchup as Detroit has been very pesky at home of late and the weather here is good for hitting, but he has the most potential of the pitchers in this range to go 3-4x tonight.
If I get an update to post another longshot arm I will do such, as of now, nobody is standing out…. Jalen Beeks is expected to pitch in relief for the Rays tonight but I don’t wanna touch him in yankee stadium.
POSITIONAL TARGETS
CATCHERS
Nobody really jumps out at me here tonight so I am tempted to just take Gomes (or Perez) in Cincy again and move on.
- Yan Gomes / Roberto Perez … Depending who starts
- JT Realmuto
- Kevin Plawecki
- Completely and utterly PUNT …
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Jose Abreu
- Wilmer Flores
- Yonder Alonso
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan Villar
- Jason Kipnis
- Ozzie Albies
- Niko Goodrum
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez … Remains priced where you really need a huge game from him, but he’s definitely capable of it.
- Matt Chapman … Remains on a tear
- Alex Bregman
- Eduardo Escobar
- Tim Beckham … 6 hole today, good value play against Vargas.
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Tim Anderson
- Asdrubal Cabrera (Would consider him at 2B on DK to pair with Lindor)
- Paul DeJong
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- David Peralta .. Not only does he have a fantastic matchup against Yovani Gallardo in Texas, but it’s his birthday!
- Mookie Betts … Mookie in America is good. Mookie in Philly isn’t bad either.
- Starling Marte
- Ronald Acuna Jr … Yeah, he hot, but I like Richards a little today so I don’t think we have to force him in.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Michael Conforto … Really heating up and going into a fantastic ballpark
- Corey Dickerson
- Avisail Garcia
- Nick Williams
OUTFIELD – Tier 3
- Chris Taylor
- Kole Calhoun
- Eric Young
- Jon Jay
STACKS
Arizona … Top play tonight ahead of Cleveland and Boston and other favorites. Arizona has potential to go off and we haven’t really seen it the last few games from them outside of an explosion by Goldschmidt on Sunday. Peralta’s birthday and Pollock potentially heating up finally have me in love with this team lining doubles and homers all over Gallardo.
Baltimore … Jason Vargas in Camden? Yeah, I don’t care what his history is versus Baltimore, Vargas is running out of steam (not that he had any to begin with), it’s good hitting conditions here and this game should be a screw it just score offense game for both sides. Trusting Baltimore is iffy, but it’s a good spot for them today.
FADES
Indians not named Alonso and Lindor
Atlanta … I think Richards is a good SP, but if he does implode it will be a ton of walks and he will be out VERY quickly and that means a terrible Miami bullpen right now for a while against a deep and hot lineup.
UPDATE — I am fading Atlanta, I have zero Braves tonight with Ozzie out.
SNEAKY
White Sox … Best weather on the slate? Looks like Detroit where we had a high scoring game last night and the White Sox should roll out Anderson-Avisail-Abreu 1-2-3 today which would be the trio I would want to use against Blaine Hardy.
Pittsburgh … Nobody seems to be on the Pirates today. Good ballpark for the righties against reverse splits Odorrizzi. Josh Bell heated up on the west coast, but I really think Marte & Harrison have good games here. As usual with the Pirates, its either go all in or fade them completely.
DONGERS CLUB
- Michael Conforto – OF
- Jonathan Villar – 2B
- David Peralta – OF
- Tim Anderson – SS
- Jose Abreu – 1B
- Starling Marte – OF
- Jose Ramirez – 3B
- JT Realmuto – C
- BONUS …………………. Chris Taylor – OF
