One game tonight (Mets-Phils) is starting early at 6:00 PM EST for some fun reason and thus we are down to a 14 game slate tonight. Some rain spots early in games but all games should play and as of early morning there’s no major concerns to worry about IMO.
Updates ….
Couple other pitchers I wouldn’t mind considering tonight …. Lance Lynn, Charlie Morton, Wade LeBlanc
Game to seriously consider fading: Anaheim @ Texas
No Chirinos for Rangers, Flowers replaces him as HR prediction
Allen Hansen batting 2nd for Giants
Dont sleep on Reds sneaky either
PITCHING
CHALK Player of the Night
Robbie Ray … Ray has seen a big price-dip on DK down to 7600 because he’s had typical Robbie Ray issues of late where he’s throwing ~20 pitches per inning, walking batters and just in general not reaching peak Robbie Ray. The match-up today though — despite some warning spots — along with his price should make him ~30%+ owned tonight. He’s in San Diego who is a soft matchup for almost any pitcher and a decent ballpark for most to use pitchers in. That said, this team has hit Ray before and has plenty of guys who are lefty mashers from the right side of the plate such as Hedges, Renfroe and Villanueva. But Villy hasn’t done anything since his early run in the season and now teams know how to pitch to him (pats self on back). Renfroe definitely should scare you tonight as he’s basically today’s Miguel Sano — the guy who has that no brainer matchup and will hit a homer. That said, Ray definitely is the one guy who can jump up and throw a 4x performance tonight. You have to start here and make a stand on him and given his walk issues and some trouble spots — I’m fading a chalk Ray tonight.
HIGH RANGE
- Max Scherzer … I think Max pitches just okay, not a 40 point dominant outing and given roster construction today (lack of cheap SP2) he’s not gonna be in play for me, but if you get creative you can get a nice safe score from him.
- Carlos Carrasco … Yes, he is at home where LiC is a thing, but the opponent tonight is an exception and that would be the Baltimore Orioles a team Carrasco has DOMINATED. I refuse to honor the lefties in cleveland with Chris Davis and Jace Peterson. The Orioles have proven to be a little sneaky but I love the way Carrasco is pitching and will even use him at home tonight — I think he matches Max Scherzer.
- Jack Flaherty … Jack is the third guy in the top end that I think could throw up a 30+ point score tonight and he is the cheapest of the bunch and given the opponent should be the lowest owned too. Milwaukee does have some guys with power that scare people off attacking them but it’s a negative park shift and it’s also a team that still K’s quite a bit….
MID RANGE
- Brian Johnson … Johnson has been good and draws a Rays lineup getting a huge park shift and with some power to cause problems but he is still a good play today IMO. There’s definitely risk here but worth the pivot off Ray chalk
- Robbie Ray … See above, he should be the popular play here and especially if you combine two guys in this range
- Jake Junis … Yeah yeah. Palka and Davidson will give him fits — but you know I’m gonna roster Junis. You just know it.
LOW RANGE
None … I would pay up for pitching tonight
TARGET OFFENSES
The Angels and Rangers will definitely be another chalk game tonight and I like many of the same guys from last night’s game again today. Odd thing about last night was that we had the Angels and the Diamondbacks put up 5+ runs in the first inning by keeping the lines moving and batting around in the order — for DFS that was a great floor — but we need those homers and second/third big innings to make a difference. Expect another high scoring game between the two today.
RANGERS … Odor, Gallo, Chirinos (Guzman)
I am going right back to Odor tonight who really struggles to strike out lefty hitters. Gallo is obviously a hit or miss HR play but when it’s Friday and we got Gallo and Chirinos at home, I tend to lock them in and move on. For the Angels I like the same guys from last night, Simmons, Pujols and Ohtani today.
GIANTS (Lefties) … Belt, Crawford (Duggar, Panik)
The Giants get to go into Great American Smallpark tonight and the lefties are all in a nice splits matchup against DeSclafani who when he is at home we target with opposing lefties. Brandon Belt has had a few games now to get his swing working in the bigs and coming to the east coast is someone I expect to have a big weekend.
SNEAKY
ASTROS … Springer (Yeah, he’s back), Bregman (Marwin, Reddick, Gattis)
The Houston whisperer is speaking and this is a HUUUUGE series between the fading Astros and the surging Athletics. But Houston comes in off that wake-up game on Wednesday night and with Springer at the top of the order they should be able to put Edwin Jackson back in his place. The Athletics bullpen is VERY VERY good, so I wouldn’t go hog wild here with Houston tonight but I love them as a 2% owned play with Springer-Bregman-Reddick leading the way. Gattis seems to rake out west.
TWINS … Sano, Austin, Kepler
Unfortunately with last nights terrible pitching one of the rules was broken by listing Liriano as a “dart” if throwing in extra lineups. That rule being dont use lefty pitchers in Minnesota. Tonight that rule applies to Matt Boyd and despite the fact that yeah the Twins scored a few touchdowns last night and Boyd does well versus them, I am going to run right back on the Twins to do it again tonight. Sano is streaky and the weather here is good.
POSITIONAL TARGETS
CATCHER
- Robinson Chirinos … It’s Friday
- Austin Hedges
- Salvador Perez
- Evan Gattis
FIRST BASE
- Brandon Belt
- Albert Pujols
- Ronald Guzman
- Justin Smoak
SECOND BASE: The only guy I would pay for here is Odor, so if going off his chalk then pay down.
- Rougned Odor
- Joe Panik
- David Fletcher
THIRD BASE:
- Jose Ramirez
- Miguel Sano
- Matt Davidson
SHORTSTOP:
- Francisco Lindor
- Trevor Story
- Andrelton Simmons
OUTFIELD – Tier 1: I have not really found it beneficial to lock in a 5k outfielder of late outside of chasing someone who is scorching hot, but even then you’ve still gotta get multiple homers or extra base hits out of them as we’ve needed to spend up on infielders of late. So while anyone above 5k is typically a good play I am trying to avoid forcing them in unless they really leap off the page to me.
- Andrew McCutchen … Yes, I know he isn’t a lefty. Go look up his numbers in this park though. I’ll wait……… Fine… you are lazy…. Here’s his HR totals by year in Cincy …. 1, 0, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3…. Yes…. He homers here….
- Shohei Ohtani
- Joey Gallo
- UPDATE ————–> FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS ————–> BILLY HAMILTON
- Kole Calhoun
OUTFIELD – Tier 2:
- Nomar Mazara
- Daniel Palka
- Hunter Renfroe
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Tier 3:
- Niko Goodrum … Given his numbers against the Twins (former team) this year, he should be 5k. Keep riding him.
- Alex Gordon
- Josh Reddick
- Max Kepler
DONGERS CLUB
- Rougned Odor – 2B – Chairman
- George Springer – OF
- Andrew McCutchen – OF
- Robinson Chirinos – C
- Brandon Belt – 1B
- Matt Davidson – 3B … F’n Royal Killer.
- Andrelton Simmons – SS
- Hunter Renfroe – OF
- BONUS …………. Niko Goodrum – 2B
