2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
FullTime Fantasy presents our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit that will have you DOMINATING your competition all season long!
Is Devonta Freeman Worth Drafting Wherever He Lands?
It’s a little surprising that we’re already approaching Memorial Day and Devonta Freeman still doesn’t have an NFL home. There are reports that he may be close to signing somewhere, with the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets being the most likely options. Regardless of which team he signs with, he won’t be the RB1. Is he still worth owning in fantasy? It depends on how much you think he has left in the tank. The Fantasy Exec, Corey Parson, had this to say about Freeman in a recent Sports Illustrated article: Freeman has two things that he does well that can help fantasy owners: pass-catching and scoring near the goal-line. In a three-season span between 2015 and 2017, he scored 35 touchdowns. Injuries (foot & knee) have slowed Freeman down. Given his hard-nosed running style, he’s also sustained concussions. Freeman will never be a lead back again. His concussion history is scary, but he could still help in a few select fantasy situations. Freeman was the RB15 overall and RB12 on a fantasy points per game basis back in 2017. He was the RB6 overall and RB7 on a per-game basis in 2016. He was the top overall running back in both categories in 2015. But that all feels like ages ago. Freeman played only two games in 2018 and didn’t meet expectations in his 14 starts last season. However, over his last 16 games, he had 1,157 total yards, 6 total touchdowns and 64 catches. Factoring in his two fumbles, that equals 211.7 fantasy points, or a per-game average of 13.23. Last season, that average would’ve been good enough to be the RB22 in PPR formats, right behind James White and in front of Joe Mixon. Although he won’t be a starter in Seattle, Philadelphia or New York, Freeman still has fantasy value as a bench asset. He might be a handcuff, but an injury to Chris Carson (with Rashaad Penny already hurt), Miles Sanders or Le’Veon Bell could make Freeman a draft steal. He’s also very much worth a flier in best ball formats. Check back when Freeman signs to find out where he lands among Shawn Childs’ positional rankings. In the meantime, check out our Mock Draft Simulator and see where you can land the former Falcons RB. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Fantasy Football: Who Is This Season’s QB3?
Barring some crazy preseason injury, the top two quarterbacks off the board in fantasy football drafts this summer will be the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes. While the order will flip flop with each passing draft, the real intrigue begins when it comes time to take the third quarterback off the board. The popular pick right now is Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. He was the third QB taken in this fantasy football mock draft (by fantasy expert Corey Parson) in early May. He filled em out. pic.twitter.com/79sNOtCkcp — Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy) May 5, 2020 Prescott is actually ranked as the No. 2 QB, above Jackson, in FullTime Fantasy’s updated May rankings. Prescott is currently Shawn Childs’ No. 3-ranked QB and could come off the board between rounds 5-7 in our Mock Draft Simulator. Why is he such a popular choice? Here’s what Parson had to say in his latest article for Sports Illustrated: Prescott has a new head coach in Mike McCarthy, the same man who helped coach Aaron Rodgers to a Super Bowl championship. Prescott has more than enough weapons. His offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is one of, if not the best back in the game. He also has a pair of wide receivers that both had more than 1,000 yards receiving last season and a flashy new rookie in CeeDee Lamb. Simply put, Jerry and Stephen Jones have put Prescott in a spot to be very successful this season. It’s hard to argue with that point. Prescott finished as the QB3 last season (QB5 on a per-game basis), so there’s precedent for him finishing that high. However, one has to wonder if the Cowboys will throw as often as they did the previous season. Will Prescott throw 596 times again or closer to the 526 attempts he had in 2018? Even splitting the difference is a loss of about 2.2 attempts per game, which would open the door for other candidates. Other top options for the QB3 spot in fantasy football drafts are Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) and Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks). Murray finished as the QB7 in his rookie season and now gets to throw to DeAndre Hopkins this season. Wilson finished as the QB5 and is always in the Top 5 conversation despite playing on a run-heavy team. What do you think? Who’s your QB3? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Will JuJu Smith-Schuster Have Full Bounce-Back in 2020?
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s rise to NFL stardom was pretty rapid, but just when fantasy football owners started to pay a premium to roster him he had the worst season of his young career. He had just 42 catches for 552 yards and 3 touchdowns in 12 games. Will he bounce back in full force in 2020? Oddsmakers have set JuJu Smith-Schuster’s yardage over/under at 1,100 for this coming season. Here’s why that number is significant: The biggest plus for JuJu Smith-Schuster this season is the return of a healthy and pain-free Roethlisberger. Smith-Schuster is averaging 78.73 receiving yards per game in contests started by Roethlisberger since Week 2 of the wide receiver’s rookie season (2017). That’s a 16-game average of 1,259.73 receiving yards. Even as bad as things were last season, he was still on a 1,013-yard pace through Week 8. Assuming he can stay healthy, Smith-Schuster should have no issues reaching 1,100 receiving yards in 2020. Those same oddsmakers have his touchdown over/under set at 6.5 with moderate juice on the over. There are no reception props available as of mid-May, so we’ll use his career average of 5.15 catches per game as a baseline. Let’s look at what an 82-catch, 1,100-yard, 7-touchdown season would look like. The above stat line is worth 234 points in PPR formats, or a per-game average of 14.63 fantasy points. That would’ve been good enough to be the WR23 last season. If we boost that up to what his career averages are with Ben Roethlisberger as his starting QB, he would’ve ranked as the WR13 in 2019. Smith-Schuster has a current consensus ranking right around WR11/12. That’s paying full price for a bounce-back. I’d feel more comfortable with him as a high-end WR2 unless I go RB-RB to start my draft. What do you think? Is he a WR1? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Is Tyler Lockett a Top 15 WR or Low-End WR2?
It’s never too early to start your fantasy football research. We here at FullTime Fantasy want to provide you with the best information possible heading into your drafts. The Seattle Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett is one of the more polarizing receivers fantasy owners have to decide on early in drafts. Some think he’s a top 15 wide receiver. Others, like myself, think he’s closer to the top 25 range. Lockett finished as the WR17 in overall PPR points last season, but was the WR23 on a per-game basis. The season prior was a similar story, with Lockett finishing as the WR18 overall but the WR24 in fantasy points per game. SeahawkMaven Corbin Smith says Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett belong among the NFL’s elite duos. Here’s an interesting nugget on Lockett specifically: Out of 19 receivers with over 2,000 receiving yards over the past two seasons, Lockett is the only player with under 200 targets, as Wilson has thrown his direction just 180 times. The next lowest total belongs to Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin, who has been targeted 216 times in the same time period. Lockett’s two best abilities over the last few seasons have been his availability and his high production per target. There’s no reason to believe he’ll suddenly get a massive spike in target share in 2020. Despite catching a combined 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons, he never finished as a top 20 wide receiver on a per-game basis in either year. I don’t think he cracks that threshold this season, either, especially with the emergence of D.K. Metcalf. What do you think? Is he closer to being a WR1 or a low-end WR2? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Should You Consider Drafting a QB in Round 1?
A question that always seems to come up for fantasy owners every few seasons: should you draft a QB in Round 1? If you play in a two-QB league the answer is a resounding yes, so let’s not focus on those formats. What about those playing in single-QB (no Superflex) leagues? Is it worth passing on all the elite running backs and receivers to take the top passer? Sports Illustrated‘s Corey Parson took a closer look at the idea, saying: A balanced approach to roster building wins more times than not. Remember Jackson was a value pick last year, I’m sure we can find another this fantasy draft season. Let someone else reach for a QB and let’s wait for a good value to fall to us in our leagues this season. I tend to agree with that strategy. Taking a quarterback in the first round leaves absolutely no margin for error in the middle rounds. Even if you get a guaranteed top 3-5 QB, that’s not good enough. You need the clear No. 1. I won’t be drafting a quarterback in Round 1, but there is an argument for taking Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. Regression, you might yell. Yes, I’m aware. But Jackson’s season was so good he can still regress and remain the top overall fantasy player at his position. For example, if Jackson’s passing touchdown rate dropped from 9% to league average, he still would’ve been the QB1 in 2019. Even if you dropped his passing touchdown total from 36 to 19 and his rushing total from 1,206 yards to 983 yards, he’d still be the QB1 last season. That’s all to say there’s plenty of room for regression and a QB1 finish in 2020. Now he has a healthy Marquise Brown and the additions of rookies Devin Duvernay and James Proche to aid in the receiving game. I can’t stomach using a first-round pick on Jackson, Patrick Mahomes or any other QB. Can you? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
How Betting Odds Help Determine Justin Herbert’s Fantasy Value
The Los Angeles Chargers moved on from franchise QB Philip Rivers this offseason and drafted their QB of the future in Oregon’s Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Rookies, particularly non-running backs, typically struggle to make an immediate fantasy impact. Quarterbacks are especially hard to gauge because, unless you play in a two-QB/Superflex league, there’s only a small chance a rookie will crack the Top 12 at the position. That being said, last year’s No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray managed QB1 status. Can Herbert do the same? To start, we must look at sportsbooks odds as a point of reference. BetOnline lists Herbert’s passing yards over/under at 3,400 with juice on the under. BetOnline has his passing touchdown total set at 21 and his interception total set at 17.5. Here are some other general things to know about rookie QBs, courtesy of Frankie Taddeo: History reveals that while 21 rookie quarterbacks have eclipsed 3,000 passing yards in a season, a mere 10 have surpassed the 3,500-yard mark. Only three have thrown for 4,000-plus yards, with the NFL rookie record held by Andrew Luck, who posted 4,374 passing yards in 2012. Fellow Heisman Trophy winners Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards in 2011 for Carolina while Jameis Winston had 4,042 in 2015 while a member of Tampa Bay. So let’s take a look into those passing numbers and add 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns to the mix (he averaged 8 rushing yards and .22 rushing touchdowns per game in his final two seasons in college). A 3,400-yard, 21-touchdown, 17-interception season with those rushing stats is worth 208 fantasy points. That would’ve been good for QB27 in total points last season, just ahead of Sam Darnold (13 games) and just behind Mitchell Trubisky (15 games). His ranking also depends on how many starts he makes. For this exercise I’m assuming 12 starts. In that case, 17.33 FPPG would’ve ranked as the QB16 last season between Daniel Jones (17.46) and Tom Brady (16.98). Tyrod Taylor will likely open the season as the Chargers’ starter, but once Herbert gets the job he’ll be a borderline Top 15 fantasy QB with plenty of weapons to work with (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler, etc.). He’ll be a very solid No. 2 option or bye-week fill in and an elite QB2 in two-QB/Superflex leagues. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
How Betting Odds Help Determine Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Value
After months and months of #TankForTua and the worry that the Miami Dolphins would take Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert or an offensive tackle over Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins took the former Alabama QB with the 5th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Rookies, particularly non-running backs, typically struggle to make an immediate fantasy impact. Quarterbacks are especially hard to gauge because, unless you play in a two-QB/Superflex league, there’s only a small chance a rookie will crack the Top 12 at the position. That being said, last year’s No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray managed QB1 status. Can Tagovailoa do the same? To start, we must look at sportsbooks odds as a point of reference. BetOnline lists Tagovailoa’s passing yards over/under at 3,200 with even juice on both sides. William Hill has his passing touchdown total set to 20. BetOnline’s interception total is set at 15.5. Here are some other general things to know about rookie QBs, courtesy of Frankie Taddeo: History reveals that while 21 rookie quarterbacks have eclipsed 3,000 passing yards in a season, a mere 10 have surpassed the 3,500-yard mark. Only three have thrown for 4,000-plus yards, with the NFL rookie record held by Andrew Luck, who posted 4,374 passing yards in 2012. Fellow Heisman Trophy winners Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards in 2011 for Carolina while Jameis Winston had 4,042 in 2015 while a member of Tampa Bay. So let’s take a look into those passing numbers and add 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns to the mix (he averaged 10.63 rushing yards and .281 rushing touchdowns per game in his college career). A 3,200-yard, 2o-touchdown, 15-interception season with those rushing stats is worth 200 fantasy points. That would’ve been good for QB28 in total points last season, just behind Sam Darnold (13 games) and in front of Kyle Allen (14 games). Those numbers also depend on how many starts he makes. If he puts up those numbers in 10 starts, his 20 FPPG would’ve ranked as the QB9 last season. Most likely, oddsmakers are figuring around a dozen starts for Tagovailoa. In that case, his 16.67 FPPG would’ve ranked tied for QB20 with Andy Dalton last season. Once Tua becomes the starter he’ll be a Top 20 fantasy QB, but not a QB1 or anything more than a bye week fill-in in single-QB leagues. In the meantime he shouldn’t be drafted outside of two-QB/Superflex leagues. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
James Conner And Damien Williams Owners Beware
The 2020 NFL Draft is now just one week away. While it’s a joyous time of year for the hundreds of players who will be drafted or signed as UDFAs, it can be a melancholy time for some established NFL veterans who could see their starting jobs or even roster spots slip away. Two players who could see a reduced workload in 2020 because of players drafted next Thursday are Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner and Kansas City Chiefs RB Damien Williams. In a piece Shawn Childs wrote for Sports Illustrated, he maps out a handful of players who could tumble down fantasy draft boards after the real-life draft, including one not-yet-drafted rookie. But two current NFL players he highlights are Conner and Williams. Here’s part of what he had to say about Conner: Pittsburgh has a long history of having success with a top running back, and they would love to find someone to help rebuild their offense around in 2020. I’m not dismissing Conner as a possible value at running back this year, but the door is open for him to face more competition for snaps if the NFL draft breaks in Pittsburgh favor at the running back position. And Williams: The Chiefs should be aggressive trying to solidify their lead RB position in 2020 as their franchise looked poised to be a top Super Bowl contender for the next decade or so. The new incoming running back has a chance to be a top ten player in 2020 if the Chiefs invest one of their first two draft selections (1.32 and 2.31) on the position. Conner was thrust into the starting role in the 2018 season after the unexpected season-long hold out by Le’Veon Bell. He continued in the starting role in 2019, but didn’t have as much success and battled injuries. The Steelers have been linked to Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor as a potential second-round pick and he’s be a great fit in Pittsburgh. If that happens, we’ll be looking at more of a timeshare in the Steelers backfield, partly out of need and partly to keep Conner healthy. Conner will still have value, but not in the early rounds. As for Williams, Andy Reid simply didn’t trust the backs he had last season. Williams was the only one to get 14 or more touches in a game all season. While rookie RBs do have a bigger learning curve in Reid’s offense than the average system, the potential to play meaningful snaps on an elite offense is tantalizing for fantasy owners. Kansas City has been linked to Georgia RB D’Andre Swift with the final pick of the opening round. However, that scenario may cause both Chiefs RBs to be overdrafted in fantasy, because neither will be guaranteed a full workload on any given week. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Fantasy Value if Jets and Patriots Draft WR in Round 1
There’s no doubt that the 2020 NFL Draft class features a plethora of quality wide receiver options. It’s one of the best classes at that position in recent memory, and fantasy football players are champing at the bit to get their hands on a few of them for the upcoming season or in dynasty leagues. It’s possible as many as 6-8 WRs could come of the board on Night 1 of the draft. If that happens, a couple teams will be taking a receiver that we didn’t expect. For example, in Frankie Taddeo’s latest mock draft for Sports Illustrated, he has the New York Jets passing on an offensive tackle and taking Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb as the top WR off the board. Here’s what he had to say about that: According to my sources, in this scenario the Jets could grab the rumored No. 1 wideout on their board in CeeDee Lamb. After losing Robby Anderson to Carolina, the Jets select the 6-foot-2, 198-pound star who instantly becomes the best receiver on their roster. If that happens, Lamb becomes a very intriguing WR4 option for fantasy, hanging just inside the Top 40 WRs. There will be some competition for targets from the recently-signed Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder, but Lamb will have a chance to emerge as Sam Darnold’s go-to option in the second half of the season. The other surprise from Taddeo’s mock was the New England Patriots taking a wide receiver at pick No. 23, Denzel Mims out of Baylor. Here’s what he had to say about that selection: Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, and N’Keal Harry are a solid wide receiver trio. However, Edelman will be 33 years old in 2020, Sanu is coming off of offseason ankle surgery and Harry still needs time to develop. Mims has been rising up draft boards after scoring 28 touchdowns in three seasons. Mims is a 6-foot-3 target who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and has all the makings of a diamond in the rough. Given the Patriots’ quarterback situation and other WRs already on the team, it’s hard to imagine Mims making much of a fantasy impact in Year 1. However, his strong run blocking skills could get him on the field a lot as a rookie. Still, he’s a WR6 at best, or better yet, a last-round flier. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
