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Category: Season Long – PGA

Fort Worth Invitational – DraftKings PGA DFS

Brooks Koepka

Daily and weekly fantasy sports have become all the rage. Battling it out over an entire season is fun, but sites like DraftKings offer a quicker payoff and big payouts for winners! Not only do they offer daily action in the four major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) as well as college basketball and football but also the PGA Tour. Your DraftKings lineup is made up of six golfers you select from within the $50,000 salary cap. Each week DraftKings offers a wide selection of games to enter at a variety of price points. You can even get a feel for the game in a freeroll contest. Before you put your cash on the line, I’ll offer my Top Values and Steals in this space every week, specifically geared to help build a winning DraftKings squad. I’ll also give you my Overpriced golfers to avoid and a couple of “Vegas Says…” tips to help you find those players for GPPs. Tournament Stop Let’s move on to the Fort Worth Invitational, which I’ll just call Colonial. Kevin Kisner is our defending champion, holding off Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm a year ago. The venue is a narrow par-70 course which features many doglegs, overhanging trees, and other characteristics that will place a premium on ball placement and accuracy. Although it measures over 7,200 yards on the scorecard, the firm and windy conditions usually render this a ball-striker’s course. Most of the players in the field will be able to hit drives near 300 yards if the rain stays away. Accurate approach shots and elite scrambling should get the job done this week, and I’ll be targeting some of the usual suspects. Colonial features bentgrass greens, which means we should see plenty of putts falling this week. Guys are usually able to putt the lights out on pure, bentgrass greens. For course comparison, look at Valspar and RBC Heritage leaderboards, or just look at the same names that have popped up here over the past few seasons. Think more Zach Johnson, and less Dustin Johnson. I’m not huge into comparing courses, but you can look at the Valspar Championship and the RBC Heritage leaderboards to get an idea of what to expect this week. Recent Tournament History Colonial has been the longtime host of this event, so we have plenty of reliable data to look back upon. Here are the leaderboards from the last three installments of the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial:     Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the Wells Fargo Championship, the Players Championship, and last week’s Byron Nelson. Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): There’s no denying that Colonial lends itself to ball-striking, as precise iron play into the green is a major factor. If a player is off by even a yard or two, they’ll face tough rough and bunkers, leading to bogeys. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Jordan Spieth, J.J. Spaun, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Stewart Cink, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, and Webb Simpson. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are fairly small at Colonial, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Patrick Cantlay, Jonathan Byrd, Alex Cejka, Webb Simpson, Wesley Bryan, Jimmy Walker, Jim Furyk, Ben Crane, Louis Oosthuizen, and Ollie Schniederjans. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Aaron Wise, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Russell Henley, Jimmy Walker, Grayson Murray, and Chesson Hadley. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green on Par-4s (SGT2G:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained tee-to-green on par-4s. Colonial is a par-70, so there’s added emphasis on the par-4s. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Patrick Cantlay, Pat Perez, Kevin Streelman, J.J. Spaun, Adam Scott, Grayson Murray, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Rickie Fowler, and Sean O’Hair. Studs *In order of my rankings Jordan Spieth ($11,700) – Back to the well! I think most DFS players will go balanced this week, or take savings to start their teams with Rickie Fowler or Webb Simpson. That means that Spieth shouldn’t be over 25% owned, which is silly in a field like this. He loves Colonial, posting a win in 2016 and a runner-up last season. Spieth putts best on bentgrass greens, and hopefully the familiar surfaces will help him channel his success of the past. Even during these recent struggles, he continues to be one of the best tee-to-green players. Don’t give up yet. Jon Rahm ($11,000) – Rahm dazzled with a runner-up finish here last year, but there’s pause for concern. He chose to blast drivers around Colonial which is usually a bad plan, but he was dialed in with his wedges. This season, he’s struggled with irons and wedges, so I expect some regression. He had another bad weekend at TPC Sawgrass, and clearly needs to work on dialing back his game on these less-than-driver courses. But, Rahm has proven he’s a world-class player, so there wouldn’t be anyone surprised to see him winning on Sunday. Justin Rose ($10,600) – It’s strange to see Rose here, and it’s also strange to see him skipping the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Rose is one of Europe’s biggest stars, so it’s a gut-punch for them not to have him. However, Colonial fits his game well and he’s been trending towards a win all season.

Fort Worth Invitational – FanDuel PGA DFS

FanDuel recently updated their PGA DFS offering, so players are trying to figure out the new format and optimize their lineups accordingly. Basically, they’ve taken away their eight-man rosters, and made their PGA product very similar to DraftKings’ product. The main difference is that you’ll have to adjust to the scoring system and new pricing. FanDuel Golf Scoring System: Eagle = 7 points Birdie = 3.1 points Par = 0.5 point Bogey = -1 point Double bogey (or worse) = -3 points Streak bonus = 0.6 points per hole under par Bounce back (birdie or better after making bogey or worse) = 0.3 points 5+ Birdies in a round = 4 points Bogey-free round = 5 points. 1st place = 20 points 2nd-5th place = 12 points 6th-10th place = 8 points 11th-25th place = 5 points Tournament Stop Let’s move on to the Fort Worth Invitational, which I’ll just call Colonial. Kevin Kisner is our defending champion, holding off Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm a year ago. The venue is a narrow par-70 course which features many doglegs, overhanging trees, and other characteristics that will place a premium on ball placement and accuracy. Although it measures over 7,200 yards on the scorecard, the firm and windy conditions usually render this a ball-striker’s course. Most of the players in the field will be able to hit drives near 300 yards if the rain stays away. Accurate approach shots and elite scrambling should get the job done this week, and I’ll be targeting some of the usual suspects. Colonial features bentgrass greens, which means we should see plenty of putts falling this week. Guys are usually able to putt the lights out on pure, bentgrass greens. For course comparison, look at Valspar and RBC Heritage leaderboards, or just look at the same names that have popped up here over the past few seasons. Think more Zach Johnson, and less Dustin Johnson. I’m not huge into comparing courses, but you can look at the Valspar Championship and the RBC Heritage leaderboards to get an idea of what to expect this week. Recent Tournament History Colonial has been the longtime host of this event, so we have plenty of reliable data to look back upon. Here are the leaderboards from the last three installments of the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial:   Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the Wells Fargo Championship, the Players Championship, and last week’s Byron Nelson.   Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): There’s no denying that Colonial lends itself to ball-striking, as precise iron play into the green is a major factor. If a player is off by even a yard or two, they’ll face tough rough and bunkers, leading to bogeys. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Jordan Spieth, J.J. Spaun, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Stewart Cink, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, and Webb Simpson. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are fairly small at Colonial, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Patrick Cantlay, Jonathan Byrd, Alex Cejka, Webb Simpson, Wesley Bryan, Jimmy Walker, Jim Furyk, Ben Crane, Louis Oosthuizen, and Ollie Schniederjans. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Aaron Wise, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Russell Henley, Jimmy Walker, Grayson Murray, and Chesson Hadley. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green on Par-4s (SGT2G:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained tee-to-green on par-4s. Colonial is a par-70, so there’s added emphasis on the par-4s. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Patrick Cantlay, Pat Perez, Kevin Streelman, J.J. Spaun, Adam Scott, Grayson Murray, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Rickie Fowler, and Sean O’Hair. Studs *In order of my rankings Jordan Spieth ($12,400) – Back to the well! I think most DFS players will go balanced this week, or take savings to start their teams with Rickie Fowler or Webb Simpson. That means that Spieth shouldn’t be over 25% owned, which is silly in a field like this. He loves Colonial, posting a win in 2016 and a runner-up last season. Spieth putts best on bentgrass greens, and hopefully the familiar surfaces will help him channel his success of the past. Even during these recent struggles, he continues to be one of the best tee-to-green players. Don’t give up yet. Jon Rahm ($11,900) – Rahm dazzled with a runner-up finish here last year, but there’s pause for concern. He chose to blast drivers around Colonial which is usually a bad plan, but he was dialed in with his wedges. This season, he’s struggled with irons and wedges, so I expect some regression. He had another bad weekend at TPC Sawgrass, and clearly needs to work on dialing back his game on these less-than-driver courses. But, Rahm has proven he’s a world-class player, so there wouldn’t be anyone surprised to see him winning on Sunday. Justin Rose ($12,200) – It’s strange to see Rose here, and it’s also strange to see him skipping the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Rose is one of Europe’s biggest stars, so it’s a gut-punch for them not to have him. However, Colonial fits his game well and he’s been trending towards a win all season. Rose had a solid performance at TPC Sawgrass, which is good to see considering his lack