Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy: Pitchers
As I broke down in my fantasy baseball auction overview, auction leagues offer an enhanced strategy and fun element that drafts just can’t match. Following up on my approach for hitters, this Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy: Pitchers will give you
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Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy: Hitters
A fantasy manager must separate hitting from pitching when starting to gameplan for an auction. Each area is 50% of the game, but finding a blend of spending that fits your game style is necessary. My Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy:
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2023 Fantasy Baseball Auction Overview
Rotisserie, draft, AL, and NL-only…there are countless formats to enjoy fantasy baseball. Auction leagues are growing in popularity and have strategic and fun advantages other formats don’t provide. Our 2023 Fantasy Baseball Auction Overview is a great start for building a championship roster via your auction. Before entering the 2023 fantasy baseball auction overview, please familiarize yourself with my 2023 fade list. Also, my 2023 bounce-back players , deep sleepers, breakout hitter of the year, and extensive preview of all 30 squads are invaluable resources. Finally, our 2023 MLB breakout pitchers list digs deep to give you an edge on draft day. Auction Overview The fantasy baseball market has many formats and league sizes, especially in auctions. I’ve played in American and National League formats with 12 teams plus 15-team mixed leagues. Each setup could also have keepers (players held for more than one year) or trading, which changes all players’ value during the auction. Over the last 20 seasons, I’ve played in the high-stakes fantasy market where there is no trading, which puts pressure on a fantasy manager to develop a winning plan before the auction. When doing an auction league with no trading, a fantasy manager has a small margin for error. No other team will be knocking on your door looking to take your third closer off your hands via a trade. If your roster is out of balance (strong in some categories and weak in others), you can’t trade hitting for pitching or even speed for saves. An auction can be won in many different ways, but many managers can lose the battle during the auction due to a questionable game plan or even a lack of foresight. Every year the player pool will change slightly. The goal of a manager is to evaluate the inventory and develop a strategy that can be executed at the draft table. If I come away with enough pieces to the puzzle, I can manage my way to a championship. Whatever game plan I decide to use, I must be ready to adjust if I don’t get my key players. A fantasy manager can roster any player they want in an auction, but it comes with a price. In most baseball auction leagues, each team starts with $260 to buy 14 hitters and nine pitchers. The goal is to accumulate the most league points in five hitting (batting average, runs, home runs, RBIs, and steals) and five pitching (wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and saves) categories. In a 12-team league, a first-place finish in a category would be worth 12 points, second place is 11 points, and so on until reaching 12th place (one point). The winner of each league is determined by adding up all 10 categories. Calling Out Players to Improve Your Team-Building Chances A common mistake fantasy managers make is hoping the players they want don’t get called out early. It sounds good in principle, but the problem is that all the other good players are coming off the board while I sit back, holding my money. If I wait and miss on my targeted players, I will have fewer options to build my team. Getting my key players called out as quickly as possible is essential. For example, if I want a player in the auction and believe he is the key to building my foundation, I would like to call him out on my first opportunity. By doing this, I find out how much he will cost (higher or lower than my predicted price point) or if I need to start looking for someone else to develop my team around. The quicker I know where I stand on critical players, the better my chance of executing my plan or adjusting on the fly. For example, I wanted to build my team around Ronald Acuna, and I believed he could hit over .300 with 30+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases with a target value of $43. If I miss on him, I will need to find another player with a step down in overall expectations. I should have a secondary plan to shift to another player with a similar skill set with less upside, but I would then save some of my spending budget. My next tier for power and speed could be Julio Rodriguez in this example. If Acuna gets called out early and sells for more than I’m willing to pay, Rodriguez would be attainable if his salary falls within my expected budget and his targeted salary. Suppose Rodriguez gets called out first, and someone buys him for $41 while I sit on Acuna as my first key player. In that case, I will have a further drop-off in the player pool if Acuna is purchased by another manager above my budgeted salary target. The situation worsens if many top players get called up before Acuna, forcing me to shove all in, no matter the cost, or revamp the foundation of my team build on the fly. This freelancing style could lead to an imbalance in roster construction in a non-trading format where a trade can’t fix a shortfall in a category. In this example, a detour off of Acuna may push me to Juan Soto, bringing less upside in speed but a potentially high ceiling in batting average. This decision would force me to find stolen bases differently while ensuring not to give away his power edge. If the drop-off from Acuna led me to Trea Turner, I would set my foundation in steals with 25-home run power and strength in batting average. However, my second targeted player should bring more home runs with a chance at hitting for average with a 100/100 type skill set. Again, if Soto, Turner, and Rodriguez get called out in the auction before Acuna, I would need to get more creative with less inventory to build my offense. The other option is not missing your targeted core player or players by overpaying with
MLB Comeback Player of the Year
Betting on veteran players after down seasons due to injuries can sometimes lead to some surprising stats. Many drafters will avoid these types of players while looking for someone with a higher ceiling. A change of scenery or even a
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2023 MLB Breakout Pitchers
Each fantasy baseball season, the goal is to find the best impact arms late in drafts to complement the foundation of your starting rotation. These types of breakthrough pitchers come from the minors most of the time. A veteran arm
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2023 MLB Breakout Players
After uncovering my breakout hitter of the year, I wanted to tag a player at each other position. The goal is to find potential values later in drafts. Before we reveal the 2023 MLB Breakout Players, please familiarize yourself with
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The Breakout Hitter of 2023
Winning in fantasy baseball comes from a successful draft plan, lineup management, and many winning free-agent pickups. At the same time, it is vital to find the breakout hitter of 2023 to help push your team over the finish line.
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2023 Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleepers
The fantasy market has many formats, creating pockets of upside depending on league size. The thought behind the 2023 fantasy baseball deep sleepers is identifying possible players that may help in 2023 in redraft formats. The goal is to track
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Fantasy Baseball Players to Avoid
Half of the battle in the fantasy market is identifying fantasy baseball players to avoid. Drafting and evaluating players is often like investing in a stock. The goal is to find improving players that are reasonably priced. A player coming
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2023 MLB Bounce-Back Players
In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, some hidden gems will be discounted due to poor years or injuries. The goal is to find overlooked, mis-priced players that have a chance to reach their previous, expected ceilings. These 2023 MLB Bounce-Back Players have the potential to be huge difference-makers on draft day. Here’s a look at my top five 2023 MLB bounce-back hitters to target this spring. And don’t forget to check out my extensive Fantasy Baseball Outlooks for all 30 MLB teams. 1 – OF Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox Over the first week of March in 12-team formats in the NFBC, Robert has an ADP of 43 as the 31st hitter drafted. After doing the first run of the projections, he ranked fourth in FPGscore (9.87). That fell more in line with his expected value in 2022 (late first round). Over the past two seasons, Robert missed 158 games. He hit .307 over his last 655 at-bats (166 games) with 96 runs, 25 home runs, 99 RBIs, and 18 steals. When at his best, Robert will hit over .400 when putting the ball in play. Plus, his RBI rate (18) has been excellent over the past two seasons. His ceiling points to a five-category stud and a player worth fighting for in drafts. 2 – OF Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers Heading into the March season, Yelich falls into a steady veteran category. Most drafters won’t fight for him due to his regression in batting average over the past three seasons (.205, .248, and .252 – .327 over 1,063 at-bats in 2018 and 2019). In addition, he only has 35 home runs since 2019 over 1,174 at-bats, compared to 80 home runs in his best two years. In 2022, Yelich finished 46th in FPGscore (2.35) for hitters. This season, his ADP (115) ranks as the 71st hitter off the board. His swing path delivers a ton of growth balls, but the change in shift rules should lead to a spike in batting average. However, I don’t expect a massive uptick in power without more JUICE in his bat or more loft on his swings. Either way, Yelich is a solid, steady piece to the puzzle who should outperform his ADP. 3 – OF Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs After a step back in production in his sophomore year (.260/84/25/76/14 over 557 at-bats), I was all over Bellinger for a breakout the following season. He set career highs in runs (121), home runs (47), RBIs (115), and steals (15). This led to the third-best fantasy output behind Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelich. His best area of growth in 2019 was his approach (strikeout rate – 16.3 and walk rate – 14.4). Over the past three seasons, his bat has been exposed at the plate, highlighted by his rising strikeout rate (27.3) and fading walk rate (6.9). As bad as Bellinger was in 2022 (.210/70/19/68/14 over 504 at-bats), he still finished 91st in FPGscore (-0.67). In the offseason, Bellinger signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs. This will force him to play at a more productive level in 2023 if he wants a lucrative long-term contract. At the very least, Chicago will hit him higher in the batting order while drawing a more favorable home park. The change in shift rules should also help his confidence at the plate. His ADP (186) ranks him as the 110th hitter selected in early March. 4 – OF Lourdes Gurriel, Arizona Diamondbacks Over 708 at-bats in 2020 and 2021. Gurriel hit .285 with 90 runs, 32 home runs, 117 RBIs, and four steals. He looked poised to build off his growth last season. Unfortunately, a hamstring issue cost him many games while also losing his power swing. Gurriel had a sharp decline in his average rate (1.371 – 1.688 in 2021 and 1.734 in 2021), leading to only five home runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks have an intriguing outfield, almost forcing Gurriel to earn more at-bats at DH. His ADP (240) in early March ranks as the 146th batter off the table. I expect him to hit in the middle of the Diamondbacks’ batting order while offering a .280/20/80 skill set with 500 at-bats. 5 – 3B Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels After his 2019 season, the Los Angeles Angels scooped up Rendon in free agency for $245 million for seven seasons. Over his first two years with LA, he missed 219 games with underwhelming stats (.235/39/11/58 over 383 at-bats). When at his best from 2017 to 2019, Rendon hit .310 over 1,582 at-bats with 286 runs, 83 home runs, and 318 at-bats. The attraction to him is hitting behind Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, creating plenty of scoring opportunities. Rendon is the 18th third baseman selected in the high-stakes market with an ADP of 211. I don’t expect him to reach his previous ceiling, but help in batting average with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs seems more than fair for the investment. To read all the MLB Team Outlooks detailed and analyzed by a high-stakes fantasy baseball legend, become a member today! 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