2024 Boston Red Sox Preview
2024 Boston Red Sox Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Boston Red Sox preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The high-flying days of the Rex Sox have left the building over the past two seasons, leading to back-to-back last-place finishes in the AL East despite winning 78 games in both years. Boston has had one playoff appearance over the past five seasons, coming after an excellent run for their franchise from 2003 to 2018 (four World Series titles and 10 trips to the postseason). The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview breaks down their 2024 chances. For the Red Sox to push their way back into contention for a division title, they must rebuild the front of their starting rotation and find an elite shutdown arm to close games. Last year, Boston finished 21st in the majors in ERA (4.52) while serving up 208 home runs (24th). Their bullpen ranked 20th (30-28 with a 4.32 ERA, 43 saves, and 636 strikeouts over 655.2 innings). The offense was much more competitive in runs (772 – 11th) and RBIs (734 – 11th) while lacking power bats (182 home runs – 18th). Their baserunners stole 112 bags in 138 tries (81.2%), placing them below the league average. Boston moved on from SP Chris Sale, leading to the addition of the talented 2B Vaughn Grissom, who lacked a starting opportunity for the Braves. The Red Sox added OF Tyler O’Neill in a deal with the Cardinals for P Nick Robertson and P Victor Santos. The only other move of value was the signing of SP Lucas Giolito. Boston lost OF Adam Duvall, 3B Justin Turner, SP James Paxton, SP Corey Kluber, and SS Adalberto Mondesi to free agency, but all of these players have yet to sign with a new team. The Red Sox invested in SS Trevor Story in 2022, but he only played in 137 games over the past two years. 3B Rafael Devers is the foundation piece to the offense, while OF Masataka Yoshida handled himself well in his first year in the majors. The development of 1B Triston Casas and OF Jarren Duran late in 2023 should lead to more competitive production this season. Some of Boston’s top-hitting prospects struggled last year, leaving a potential void in their development system. The ninth inning belongs to CL Kenley Jansen, but his glory days are barely in the rearview mirror. The Red Sox starting rotation lacks star power at the front end, but all five options have a chance to beat their stats from last year. This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook. Up next, the 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview. Starting Lineup 2B Vaughn Grissom Over four seasons in the minors, Grissom hit .320 with 232 runs, 32 home runs, 1,194 RBIs, and 59 stolen bases over 1,263 at-bats. His strikeout rate (13.6) and walk rate (10.4) have top-of-the-order upside. Last year, his bat showed growth at High A (.312/62/11/55/20 over 298 at-bats), leading to a promotion to AA (.363 over 91 at-bats with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and seven steals). In 2023, the fantasy market (as did I) expected Grissom to win the starting shortstop job out of spring training after a productive year (.324/72/14/67/27 over 389 at-bats) between High A and AA. The Braves also gave him 41 major league games of experience in 2022 (.291/24/5/18/5 over 141 at-bats). Unfortunately, his defense at shortstop was trailing, leading to him starting the year at AAA. Atlanta called him up in mid-April, but Grissom failed to make an impact over 65 at-bats (.277/5/0/70) while making six errors at short over his 19 games. His bat played well at AAA (.330 with 74 runs, eight home runs, 61 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 397 at-bats) while underperforming expectations in power and speed. The Braves gave him 70 starts at shortstop and 31 at second base in the minors, with 10 combined errors (SS – 9 and 2B – 1). Grissom remained challenging to strike out (14.1%) with growth in his walk rate (12.0). His HR/FB rate at AAA (8.0%) was well below his outcome at High A (11.8%), AA (12.5%), and MLB (15.2%) in 2022. He has maintained a high contact batting average in his career while controlling the strike zone well. Fantasy Outlook: Other than batting average, Grissom’s 2023 stats won’t draw much attention from some shallow-digging fantasy drafters. He profiles well to bat leadoff Boston this year, with a run at a 20/35 season with 550 at-bats. His ADP (340) in the NFBC in early January should shine brightly for the fantasy market. Rarely will a fantasy drafter find a potential edge in batting average with supporting home runs and stolen bases this late in a draft. By the end of March, he should move closer to the 13th round in 15-team formats if Boston hints that he’ll hit high in their batting order. Grissom will outperform many middle infielders selected ahead of him, making him a breakaway layup based on his current draft value. SS Trevor Story In his two seasons with Boston, Story missed 187 games, with three stints (wrist,
2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview
2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Baltimore Orioles preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The Orioles came into last season with an over/under of 76.5 wins. They won the AL East with 101 victories while making the postseason for the first time since 2016. Since 1997, Baltimore has had one other division title (2014 – 96-66) with two other playoff appearances. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview showcases the upstart young birds. Their pitching staff ranked seventh in the majors in ERA (3.89) while finishing with the fifth-best bullpen in ERA (3.55). Their relievers had 44 wins, 21 losses, 49 saves, and 614 strikeouts over 575.1 innings. The Orioles allowed the fourth-lowest total in home runs (177) with the most innings pitched (1,354.1). Baltimore scored the seventh most runs (807), with the same ranking in RBIs (780). On the downside, they finished below the league average in home runs (183 – 17th). Their base stealers ran 138 times, leading to 114 stolen bases (82.6%). In the offseason, their top signing was RP Craig Kimbrel to help cover the loss of Felix Bautista, who had TJ surgery last October. The Orioles claimed OF Sam Hilliard off waivers to add power to their bench. Baltimore lost SP Kyle Gibson, SP Jack Flaherty, RP Jorge Lopez, OF Aaron Hicks, 2B Adam Frazier, RP Shintaro Fujinami, and RP Mychal Givens to free agency. The top of the Orioles’ starting lineup has two rising stars (3B Gunnar Henderson and C Adley Rutschman), while SS Jackson Holliday looks poised to make the jump to the majors in 2024 at age 20. 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Cedric Mullins, OF Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays add veteran depth with upside. The future success of Baltimore lies in the development of SP Grayson Rodriguez and SP Kyle Bradish. SP John Means and Dean Kremer should be better in 2024 while offering competitive innings at the backend of the Orioles’ rotation. Tyler Wells showed growth last year while working primarily as a starting pitcher. Baltimore may need his arm on the bullpen this season. The ninth inning won’t be as shutdown as 2023, but Craig Kimbrel has plenty of major league experience closing games. He has elite upside if Kimbrel throws more strikes and minimizes the damage in home runs. RP Yennier Cano posted the best season of his career at age 29, giving Baltimore some insurance to close out games. The Orioles hope P DL Hall can help in some fashion this year after giving their bullpen a boost over the final five weeks last year. His success and ceiling start with better command. This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins was a waiver-wire darling in 2021, helping many fantasy teams win league and overall championships. He finished 10th in FPGscore (6.36) for hitters. In 2022, Mullins finished with almost the same opportunity in at-bats (602 and 608), but he failed to repeat in power despite a higher fly ball rate (43.6 – 41.1 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (7.7) was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (15.5) while failing in a range more in line with his previous career. Mullins saw a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.561 – 1.781 in 2021) and contact batting average (.326 – .367 in 2021). On the positive side, he continued to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate (18.8), with a step back in walks (7.0% – 8.7 in 2021). Despite his regression, Mullins was the 23rd most valuable hitter based on FPGscore (5.33). Last season, His bat lost value vs. lefties (.233) and righties (.233) while spending two lengthy stints on the injured list with a groin injury. After his first 48 games, Mullins hit .283 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 39 RBIs, and 13 steals over 177 at-bats, putting on pace for a 25/40 type year with 550 at-bats. His walk rate (11.8) and strikeout rate (16.3) over this stretch showed top-of-the-order success. Mullens was a lost soul over his final 153 at-bats (.190/18/6/27/5 with eight walks and 43 strikeouts). His one bright spot from last year was his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 22). Mullins’s quest for more home runs led to a new top in his flyball rate (49.0 – 42.7 in his career), with only a slight uptick in his HR/FB rate (10.1 – 7.7 in 2021). His launch angle (21.6) was the highest of his career, with no changes in his overall exit velocity (88.9). Fantasy Outlook: Injuries were a significant factor in the demise of Mullins over the final four months of 2023. He has the foundation skill set to hit higher in the batting order, but Mullins must lose some of his desire to smash home runs if he wants a better opportunity this season. In 2021, Baltimore hit him first in their lineup for 594 of his 602 at-bats (588 of 608 in 2022 and 186 of 404 in 2023). In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), Mullins had an ADP of 139 as the 31st outfield selected.
2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview
2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview The conclusion of the football season means that fantasy fanatics can now prepare for spring training and the upcoming baseball season. Courtesy of Baseball America, NFBC Hall-of-Fame analyst Shawn Childs takes a deep dive into the 2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview. Baltimore shocked baseball last season by winning an AL-high 101 games. Do the young Orioles have the pitching to take the next step? Shawn breaks it down for us. Starting Pitching SP Grayson Rodriguez Baltimore selected Rodriguez in the first round (11th) of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft after completing his high school career. In his first year at A Ball, he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 94.0 innings. Then, after missing the COVID-19 season in 2020, Rodriguez dominated over 23 starts between High A and AA (9-1 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.825 WHIP, and 161 strikeouts over 103 innings). In 2022, Rodriguez was on the doorstep of the majors in early June (5-1 at AAA with 2.09 ERA, .168 BAA, and 80 strikeouts over 56 innings), but he left his 11th minor league start with a lat issue. After missing three months, Rodriguez struggled to find his previous form over his final 19.2 innings (nine runs and 28 baserunners) while striking out 29 batters. The excitement of Rodriguez was high when he made the Orioles’ starting rotation out of spring training. After a reasonable April (1-0 with a 4.07 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 24.1 innings), he lost his confidence over his next five starts (11.14 ERA), highlighted by his 45 baserunners and 11 home runs allowed over 21.0 innings. Baltimore shipped to AAA for the next seven weeks, where Grayson regained his edge (4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 41.1 innings). Over his final 12 starts with the Orioles, he allowed three runs or fewer in each contest, leading to a 5-2 record with a 2.26 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 71.2 innings. More importantly, Grayson only surrendered three more home runs. His average fastball (97.4) was elite in velocity. Batters struggled to hit his changeup (.191), slider (.143), and curveball (.173) while offering a losing cutter (.375). Despite growth in the second half, Grayson still battled his four-seamer (.313 with two home runs over 131 at-bats) while barely throwing his cutter. The next step in his growth is better command (3.1 walks per nine) and solving lefties (.277 with nine home runs and 24 walks over 195 innings). Fantasy Outlook: Between AAA and the majors, Grayson pitched 165 innings, putting him on track to take the mound every fifth day for Baltimore. In the early draft season in the NFBC, he has an ADP of 71 as the 21st starting pitcher selected. He looks poised to offer ace stats, with his ceiling behind limited to expected innings (180). The direction of Baltimore gives him a chance at 15+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts. If his spring reports are on point, I expect him to push to the early fourth round in the live events in Las Vegas in March. SP Kyle Bradish Over three seasons in the minors, Bradish went 15-13 with a 3.66 ERA and 283 strikeouts over 229 innings. After struggling at AAA in 2021 (4.67 ERA and 1.431 WHIP over 86.2 innings), his arm moved quickly to the majors in 2022 after three starts (1.20 ERA and 15.0 innings with 37 strikeouts). With Baltimore, Bradish struggled in six of his first 10 starts, leading to 38 runs, 82 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 46.1 innings. A right shoulder injury pushed him to the injured list, and then he had three rehab starts in the minors in July (two runs and six baserunners over 12.2 innings with one walk and 15 strikeouts). His arm improved over his next nine starts with the Orioles (7-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 44 strikeouts over 50.2 innings). Bradish did a better job keeping the ball in the yard (0.9 per nine innings). His final four starts came @TOR, HOU, @BOS, and @NYY, resulting in two disaster showings (10 runs and 25 baserunners over 20.2 innings). Last year, Bradish outpitched his previous resume at all levels, thanks to a step forward in his command (2.3 walks per nine). He allowed two runs or fewer in 21 of his 30 starts. His arm played well vs. righties (.211) and lefties (.220), with better success at home (2.23 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 76.2 innings). Over the back half of the year, he posted an ERA of 2.25 or lower each month while being more challenging to hit after the All-Star Break (.187). The value of his slider lost about half of a mile per hour while featuring his slider (.177 BAA) as his top pitch (30.8%). His cutter (.367 BAA) remains a liability despite throwing it as his second-highest rate. Batters struggled with his sinker (.214 BAA) and curveball (.163 BAA), with some regression with his changeup (.293 BAA – better pitch in the second half ~ .210 BAA). Fantasy Outlook: Despite growth in his command, Bradish continues to have weakness in his first-pitch strike rate (57.6). He did throw more overall strikes in 2023, and his overall arsenal did support his growth. His ADP (98) is reasonable (41st pitcher), considering his progression and 2024 potential. I hate buying arms off of career year, especially the ones that helped drafters win leagues with a free price point. Trending toward 180+ innings with some pullback in ERA and WHIP should be expected. In 2023, Bradish was the 16th-ranked pitcher by FPGscore (4.19). SP John Means Twice over his first three seasons with the Orioles, Means delivered a successful year in ERA (3.60 and 3.62) and WHIP (1.135 and 1.030). He improved his first-pitch strike rate (69.3) to an elite level in 2021, but home runs allowed (30 over 146.2 innings) were a problem for the second straight season. Over his 26 starts, he gave
2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview
2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview The conclusion of the football season means that fantasy fanatics can now prepare for spring training and the upcoming baseball season. Courtesy of Baseball America, NFBC Hall-of-Fame analyst Shawn Childs takes a deep dive into the 2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview. Starting Pitching SP Jesus Luzardo Over five seasons in the minors, Luzardo went 16-9 with a 3.01 ERA and 272 strikeouts over 236.1 innings. After being eased into 2020, Luzardo failed to live up to expectations over his nine starts (3.83 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 49.1 innings). He didn’t allow a run in four appearances (20.1 innings) while having one disaster showing (six runs and 11 baserunners over 3.1 innings). Luzardo lost his command (4.5 walks per nine) and confidence in 2021, resulting in 20 home runs over 95.1 innings. Batters beat him to the tune of a .280 batting average. He had an ERA higher than 5.25 every month. In 2022, he dominated in his first start (one run over five innings with 12 strikeouts). Luzardo battled his command (15 walks) over his next five matchups, leading to too many rough innings (4.50 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, and four home runs over 24 innings). His struggles were tied to a forearm issue that led to 11 weeks on the injured list. Luzardo reached ace status over his final 71.1 innings (3.03 ERA, 0.981 WHIP, 0.198 BAA, and 79 strikeouts). Last year, Luzardo gave the fantasy market a nice season despite moments of duress. Over five starts starting on May 21st, he allowed 18 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings, where his ERA (6.15) was well off the WHIP (1.101). Later in the year, his arm struggled to get batters out in four of seven matchups (24 runs, 54 baserunners, nine home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). Luzardo gave up 19 of his 22 home runs over 528 at-bats to righties, with a .248 batting average. In addition, he was a significant liability on the road (4.48 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and .276 BAA over 70.1 innings). His average fastball (96.8) was the best of his career. Luzardo had one dominating pitch (slider – .229 with 115 strikeouts over 210 at-bats), but it had less value against right-handed batters (.275 BAA). He gained an edge with his four-seamer (.253 BAA) and changeup (.245 BAA) with more success with a low-volume sinker (.275 BAA vs. lefties ~ .207 BAA). Fantasy Outlook: With a 32-start season on his resume, plus 200+ strikeouts and better command, Luzardo will be treated like a foundation SP2 in the high-stakes market based on his ADP (81) in early February. On the downside, he had a jump of 75.2 innings from 2022 and questions of what happens on his down days. In five of his 13 road starts, Luzardo gave up two runs or fewer when pitching at least five innings. I don’t want to overlook his potential injury risk due to his forearm injury in 2022. I’m hoping for a great spring and a rise-up draft board to remove him from my thought process. He is trending closer to a 3.00 ERA with 225 strikeouts if Luzardo can pitch 190.0+ innings and better success away from home. SP Eury Perez Miami hooked a gem with the signing of Perez out of the Dominican Republic. His minor league career started at age 17 in 2021. Over 78.0 innings at A and High A, he posted a 1.96 ERA and 108 strikeouts. The following season, a lat injury cost him about five weeks of development at AA. When on the mound, Perez pitched at a high level over his first 61.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, .188 BAA, and 87 strikeouts. He tripped up over three appearances (13 runs, 27 baserunners, and three home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), leading to a trip to the injured list. His season ended with four shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Perez shined over his first six starts (2.32 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, .148 BAA, and 42 strikeouts) last year at AA before getting his call up to the majors. Other than a disastrous game on July 1st (six runs and seven baserunners over one-third of an inning), he handled himself well over 11 matchups in the majors (2.36 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, .208 BAA, and 61 strikeouts over 53.1 innings). Miami shut him down around the All-Star break for three weeks to conserve innings. Unfortunately, Perez ran out of gas over his 10 appearances between AA and the majors (4.74 ERA, eight home runs, 59 strikeouts over 43.2 innings). His average fastball (97.5) is already one of the best in the game in velocity. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.200 BAA), curveball (.114 BAA), and changeup (.103 BAA). Perez had the most struggles with his four-seamer (.287 BAA and 12 home runs over 181 at-bats). Fantasy Outlook: Perez will turn 21 on April 15th while already offering beast upside, along with an edge in size (6’8” and 220 lbs.). Last year, he pitched 128.0 innings, putting him on track to throw at least 160.0 innings. Home runs were a problem last year, and Perez must pitch better late in the season to help fantasy teams win league championships. His ADP (80) in NFBC in early January ranked him neck and neck with Jesus Luzardo. With a step up in command, he has the potential and pitches to post a sub-3.00 ERA with a run at 200 strikeouts. Don’t be shy, especially if he is discounted. SP Trevor Rogers In the 2017 June Amateur Draft, Miami drafted Rogers with the 13th overall pick. However, a left forearm injury pushed back his debut in the minors until late May in 2018. He struggled over 17 starts at A ball (5.82 ERA). Rogers looked worthy of his high draft selection in 2019 (2.90 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 136.1 innings) while seeing regression after his promotion from High A
2023 Fantasy Baseball Roster Management
Roster management is a crucial tool in fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, one of my weaknesses is not churning my roster. Every year I’m holding a couple of young players that could make a difference later in the year. The longer I keep them and get no production from that roster slot, the more opportunities I miss when valuable players are on the waiver wire. My 2023 Fantasy Baseball Roster Management tips will keep your roster churning and burning. Before we look at 2023 Fantasy Baseball Roster Management tips, please familiarize yourself with my 2023 fade list. Also, my 2023 bounce-back players , deep sleepers, breakout hitter of the year, and extensive preview of all 30 squads are invaluable resources. Finally, our 2023 MLB breakout pitchers list digs deep to give you an edge on draft day. And, of course, read who I picked to be the American League Rookie of the Year. Churn, Baby Churn Some of the best fantasy managers in today’s games are excellent churners of their rosters. They don’t get emotionally tied to any player on their bench. They understand a player’s skill set and know the replacement value on the waiver wire. I’m sure there are times when they drop a player that later becomes a difference-maker. Sometimes they reacquire these players because they are so in tune with the player pool. The baseball season is a marathon. But maximizing your opportunities starting in week one is essential. I’m surprised how many teams take zeros from their pitchers over the first week of the season. This is because they didn’t think far enough ahead. Also, they didn’t take the time to look at the possible starting pitcher rotations before they draft their team. These leagues are often so close that an extra win or a handful of strikeouts can be the difference between winning and losing. In 12-team leagues, the free-agent pool is an extension of my bench if I have the proper roster structure. I can find many helpful outfielders and corner infielders. The backend pitching inventory is deep, but it comes with risk. The goal is to maximize at-bats while continually looking for possible pitching improvements. It is incredibly challenging to carry mediocre injured players. After the season starts, I must review my bench players to see if I need any help. My first goal is to look at the end of each week’s stats and see where I stand as far as at-bats and my pitching goals. Week 1 of the year is challenging to gauge, but I need to know if I have enough depth in my starting rotation. It’s too late to save some of the teams if I made mistakes during the draft. I must live with my draft-day decisions and hope my opinions are correct. There’s nothing worse than dropping the best available free agent for next week’s waiver period, so it is vital to take a deep breath when deciding to release certain players. A player will get hurt or lose playing time each week, opening up more at-bats or innings for other players most likely found on the waiver wire. There are many times during the year when players play well for short periods, while some even develop into substantial contributors to your fantasy team. In 2019, Danny Santana (.283 with 81 runs, 28 home runs, 81 RBIs, and 21 steals) turned into fantasy gold via the free agent pool, which came after four empty seasons. Dominic Smith fell into the category in the short Covid-19 year. In 2021, Adolis Garcia kicked the free agent door in early April to deliver impactful stats (.243 with 77 runs, 31 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases). Last season, Brandon Drury filled an infield void on fantasy teams (.263/87/28/87/2 over 518 at-bats) from the waiver pool. I’ve been a fantasy snob when looking for a player to upgrade my team in the past. Beggars can’t be choosy during the heat of the season-long battle in baseball. I remember not picking up Ryan Howard in 2005 because I thought his batting average had risk due to his high strikeout rate. He ended up hitting .288 with 22 home runs over 312 at-bats. I overlooked Howard as a difference-maker because of a possible weakness in one category. I can never dismiss talent, and I need to take every at-bat upgrade I can find. Over a short period, any player can hit for a higher average than expected, and sometimes those players stay locked in all year. A fantasy manager needs to evaluate every player and every situation. These decisions are so much easier when my team is playing well. When behind in the league standings, a fantasy manager can make mistakes trying to make things happen. Either they bench a star player that goes off after a slow start to the year, or they cut a player because he’s failed to perform up to expectations. When churning my roster, I’m looking for players with upside who are buy-and-hold candidates. Other times, I need to take a zero to protect a roster spot. I hate to fall further behind, but the player I pick up is not guaranteed to have a good week. Sometimes I have to weather the storm. I never know when a player starts to turn the corner or if a few players will get hot on my team. So I must keep my head down and continuously grind throughout the season. This season I’d like to keep one bench spot to rotate in possible double starting pitcher and another slot on my bench for the “hot hitter of the week.” Everyone plays in different formats with varying league sizes. One decision may work well for one league, and it may be a poor decision for another. Usually, the player pool will answer your questions. However, there is a fine line between patience and churning. Each fantasy manager must find a balance between the two in their quest to win a league championship.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Hitters
Opening Day is right around the corner. That means it is fantasy baseball draft season! The best way to prepare for your draft is with accurate and updated projections. Our 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Hitters previews all pitchers with insight from our exclusive FPGscore metric. FPGscore is a deep-diving exclusive metric that analyzes a player’s value relative to their production. It is just the kind of tool the well-prepared drafter needs in their arsenal. And, it can make all the difference on draft day. Here are FullTime Fantasy’s 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Hitters. Exclusive for FullTime Fantasy Members. To read all the MLB TeamOutlooks detailed and analyzed by a high-stakes fantasy baseball legend, become a member today! You can either buy all the Outlooks as a downloadable for a one-time discounted price of $30 or Join the FullTime fam with a Monthly, 6-Month, or Annual Membership which includes everything we do for ALL SPORTS! This week only, use PROMO: SHAWN23, for an additional 15% off any package! GET THE UPDATES! Turn on your email notifications for Breaking Fantasy news alerts & site updates.
National League Rookie of the Year
After walking through the player pool for the fantasy baseball season, it’s time to switch gears to the betting market. My first stop is the National League Rookie of the Year awards. I used DraftKings Sportsbook as my point of reference for each player’s odds. Before we look at my National League Rookie of the Year candidates, please familiarize yourself with my 2023 fade list. Also, my 2023 bounce-back players , deep sleepers, breakout hitter of the year, and extensive preview of all 30 squads are invaluable resources. Finally, our 2023 MLB breakout pitchers list digs deep to give you an edge on draft day. And, of course, read who I picked to be the American League Rookie of the Year. 3B Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals (+360) After making the Cardinals’ opening-day roster, Walker is the clear favorite to be the best rookie in the National League in 2023. He is a beast of a man who should have four-category success out of the gate. Walker smashes the ball, and many of his line drives will also league the park. I expect some early-season potholes, but his swing and stats should shine brightly after the season. Walker was also my breakout hitter of the year. OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (+400) Diamondback fans should fall in love with Carroll this year. His speed is electric, and his power will be much better than most believe. If he shaves off a few strikeouts, his batting average will also become a massive edge. I expect him to play well in his rookie campaign, and I wish I had him on more teams. I consider him on a similar path as Bobby Witt in 2022 while needing to prove he can stay on the field for 150 games at the major league level. 1B Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers (+700) There is a lot to like about the future of Vargas. He was well respected in the high-stake drafts in Vegas, and I expect him to hit in a favorable part of the Dodgers’ batting order. His challenge in winning this award is that Jordan Walker and Corbin Carroll have a chance to post eye-popping stats, while Vargas projects to be a high-floor five-category player. On his side of the equation, he may outlast play them in volume of at-bats. OF Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers (+3,000) Mitchell doesn’t get the attention of the top three players on this list, but he does have plenty of talent while offering elite speed and defense. In addition, his size (6’3” and 215 lbs.) screams much more power once he adds more loft. His first step in improvement at the major league is controlling the strike zone better. Mitchell needs to work his way up the Brewers’ batting order to increase his chance of winning. SP Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants (+6000) Harrison falls into the dark horse category for rookie of the year because he will start the season in the minors. If and when he makes the Giants’ starting rotation, his edge will be his ability to pile up massive strikeouts. His command wasn’t major league ready last year, inviting some up-and-down games once he reaches San Francisco. To read all the MLB TeamOutlooks detailed and analyzed by a high-stakes fantasy baseball legend, become a member today! You can either buy all the Outlooks as a downloadable for a one-time discounted price of $30 or Join the FullTime fam with a Monthly, 6-Month, or Annual Membership which includes everything we do for ALL SPORTS! This week only, use PROMO: SHAWN23 for an additional 15% off any package!3 GET THE UPDATES! Turn on your email notifications for Breaking Fantasy news alerts & site updates.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Pitchers
Opening Day is right around the corner. That means it is fantasy baseball draft season! The best way to prepare for your draft is with accurate and updated projections. Our 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Pitchers previews all pitchers with insight from our exclusive FPGscore metric. FPGscore is a deep-diving exclusive metric that analyzes a player’s value relative to their production. It is just the kind of tool the well-prepared drafter needs in their arsenal. And, it can make all the diference on drat day. Here are FullTime Fantasy’s 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Pitchers. Exclusive for FullTime Fantasy Members. Starting Pitchers To read all the MLB TeamOutlooks detailed and analyzed by a high-stakes fantasy baseball legend, become a member today! You can either buy all the Outlooks as a downloadable for a one-time discounted price of $30 or Join the FullTime fam with a Monthly, 6-Month, or Annual Membership which includes everything we do for ALL SPORTS! This week only, use PROMO: SHAWN23, for an additional 15% off any package! GET THE UPDATES! Turn on your email notifications for Breaking Fantasy news alerts & site updates.
American League Rookie of the Year
After walking through the player pool for the fantasy baseball season, it’s time to switch gears to the betting market. My first stop is the American League Rookie of the Year awards. I used DraftKings Sportsbook as my point of reference for each player’s odds. Before we look at my American League Rookie of the Year candidates, please familiarize yourself with my 2023 fade list. Also, my 2023 bounce-back players , deep sleepers, breakout hitter of the year, and extensive preview of all 30 squads are invaluable resources. Finally, our 2023 MLB breakout pitchers list digs deep to give you an edge on draft day. 3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (+225) Henderson is an enticing player this year while looking like he has a clear path to a starting job for the Orioles. He projects to have a 20/20 skill set out of the gate, but I question his ability to control the strike zone. I have him in the fade column in the fantasy market due to his draft cost, which also means I’m looking to beat him in this category based on his low odds. OF Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox (+600) Yoshida has a proven floor in Japan and shined in the World Baseball Classic in March. I don’t see impact power with questionable upside in speed, requiring him to gain his edge by volume of at-bats in his rookie season in the United States. However, his approach grades well, indicating strength in his batting average. SS Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees (+750) A hot spring training and the New York fan base have pushed Volpe to the third betting chance over the last week or so. He looks poised to start the year with the Yankees, but Volpe must hit to keep the job. His glove and defense don’t have the edge over Oswaldo Peraza. Volpe brings a high upside in steals with a flyball swing path to the majors. There will be a learning curve in the majors, but I like his chances better than Gunnar Henderson if he sticks with New York all season. 1B Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox (+800) After researching Casas, I took the stance that Boston would use him as a platoon hitter until he improves against left-handed pitching. I like his expected power, but this game isn’t ready to make an impact in 2023. Casas could hit more than 20 home runs with 450 at-bats, but the overall depth of his production probably won’t be high enough to beat the best first-time players in the American League. SP Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles (+1,000) I expect Rodriguez to hit the ground running in his rookie campaign, but the length of his innings pitched could lead to him pitching minimally in September while his top competition for this award gains momentum late in the season. His odds and potential ceiling pair up well in the betting market. Long Shot: DraftKings doesn’t have OF Esteury Ruiz of the Oakland A’s listed on the site, but I saw a +5,000 line at MGM Bet at the Mirage, and the Venetian’s sportsbook had Ruiz listed at +7,500 on their betting sheet (not sure of his actual odds at their location). Either way, Ruiz has impact speed, giving him a chance to lead the American League in stolen bases. In addition, he should handle the strike zone while also offering double-digit power. He is the player I’ll bet on in this category while I’m in Las Vegas to draft in the high-stakes market. To read all the MLB TeamOutlooks detailed and analyzed by a high-stakes fantasy baseball legend, become a member today! You can either buy all the Outlooks as a downloadable for a one-time discounted price of $30 or Join the FullTime fam with a Monthly, 6-Month, or Annual Membership which includes everything we do for ALL SPORTS! This week only, use PROMO: SHAWN23 for an additional 15% off any package!3 GET THE UPDATES! Turn on your email notifications for Breaking Fantasy news alerts & site updates.
Fantasy Baseball Saves Strategy
Wins may be the most challenging part of fantasy baseball, but closers are the most infuriating. I have difficulty using a high draft pick on a one-category player on draft day. Also, I prefer to avoid chasing closers and closers-in-waiting
To get an idea of what you’ll be diving into, you can read either of the two unlocked outlooks here:
BALTIMORE ORIOLES – BOSTON RED SOX
You can either buy all the Outlooks as a downloadable for a one-time discounted price of $30 or Join the FullTime fam with a Monthly, 6-Month, or Annual Membership which includes everything we do for ALL SPORTS!
This week only, use PROMO: SHAWN23, for an additional 15% off any package!