Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy
Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy and insight are courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. Also, check out Shawn’s detailed 2024 Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide for the most thorough tips and advice that you will find anywhere. Auction Overview The fantasy baseball market has many formats and league sizes, especially in auctions. I’ve played in American and National League formats with 12 teams plus 15-team mixed leagues. Each setup could also have keepers (players held for more than one year) or trading, which changes all players’ value during the auction. Over the last 20+ seasons, I’ve played in the high-stakes fantasy market where there is no trading, which puts pressure on a fantasy manager to develop a winning plan before the auction. When doing an auction league with no trading, a fantasy manager has a small margin for error. No other team will be knocking on your door looking to take your third closer off your hands via a trade. If your roster is out of balance (strong in some categories and weak in others), you can’t trade hitting for pitching or even speed for saves. An auction can be won in many different ways, but many managers can lose the battle during the auction due to a questionable game plan or even a lack of foresight. Every year, the player pool will change slightly. The goal of a manager is to evaluate the inventory and develop a strategy that can be executed at the draft table. If I come away with enough pieces to the puzzle, I can manage my way to a championship. Whatever game plan I decide to use, I must be ready to adjust if I don’t get my key players. A fantasy manager can roster any player they want in an auction, but it comes with a price. In most baseball auction leagues, each team starts with $260 to buy 14 hitters and nine pitchers. The goal is to accumulate the most league points in five hitting (batting average, runs, home runs, RBIs, and steals) and five pitching (wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and saves) categories. In a 12-team league, a first-place finish in a category would be worth 12 points, second place is 11 points, and so on until reaching 12th place (one point). The winner of each league is determined by adding up all 10 categories. Calling Out Players to Improve Your Team-Building Chances A common mistake fantasy managers make is hoping the players they want don’t get called out early. It sounds good in principle, but the problem is that all the other good players are coming off the board while I sit back, holding my money. If I wait and miss on my targeted players, I will have fewer options to build my team. Getting my key players called out as quickly as possible is essential. For example, if I want a player in the auction and believe he is the key to building my foundation, I would like to call him out on my first opportunity. By doing this, I find out how much he will cost (higher or lower than my predicted price point) or if I need to start looking for someone else to develop my team around. The quicker I know where I stand on critical players, the better my chance of executing my plan or adjusting on the fly. For example, I wanted to build my team around Ronald Acuna, and I believed he could repeat a good portion of his 2023 stats (.337/149/41/106/73) with a target value of $55. If I miss on him, I will need to find another player with a step down in overall expectations. I should have a secondary plan to shift to another player with a similar skill set with less upside, but I would then save some of my spending budget. In this example, my next tier for power and speed could be Julio Rodriguez. If Acuna gets called out early and sells for more than I’m willing to pay, Rodriguez would be attainable if his salary falls within my expected budget and his targeted salary. Suppose Rodriguez gets called out first, and someone buys him for $41 while I sit on Acuna as my first key player. In that case, I will have a further drop-off in the player pool if Acuna is purchased by another manager above my budgeted salary target. The situation worsens if many top players get called out before Acuna, forcing me to shove all in, no matter the cost, or revamp the foundation of my build on the fly. This freelancing style could lead to an imbalance in roster construction in a non-trading format where a trade can’t fix a shortfall in a category. In this example, a detour off of Acuna may push me to Freddie Freeman, putting me in a weaker position in speed but a potentially high floor and ceiling in batting average. This decision would force me to find stolen bases differently and potentially look for another source of high-end power. If the drop-off from Acuna led me to Bobby Witt, I would set a high foundation in steals with 30+ home run power but only a neutral option for batting average. I would then focus on landing another high-average bat with one of my next two core hitters. Again,
Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide
Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide and insight are courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. Fantasy Baseball Basics Fantasy baseball is a great game, especially for sports fans who love to watch baseball. A season covers about 180 days or about 26 weeks. Most of my experience in the fantasy baseball market has come in rotisserie-style leagues in the high-stakes market with no trading. Most formats have 10 categories to earn league points, with five for batters and five for pitchers. Roto Categories Batting Average (BA) – Each team adds up their total hits divided by at-bats by their starting hitters to create their overall team batting average. If you have the highest batting average in your league, your team earns first-place points in this category. (Note: The number of teams in each league or competition determines league points. For example, if there are 12 teams in a league, first place is worth 12 points. Second place is worth 11 points, and so on, with the last-place team earning only one point). In a 12-team league, fantasy managers trying to finish in the top 20% in batting average should set a goal of .2630 based on the high-stakes market results in 2023 (2,460 teams). Runs (R) – This is the total of all runs scored by the starting hitters on your team. The goal for runs should be about 1,125 runs in 12-team leagues or 80 runs per player in formats with 14 offensive players. Homeruns (HR) – Each team adds up the number of home runs by their starting hitters. A fantasy manager needed over 320 home runs to finish in the top three in the home run category in 12-team leagues (about 23 home runs per batter). Runs Batted In (RBI) – This is the total of all runs driven in by your starting lineup. In a 12-team league, the target number should be about 1,100 RBIs (about 79 RBIs per batter). Stolen Bases (SB) – Each team adds up the number of steals by their starting players. In 2022, a fantasy manager needed 134 steals to finish in the top 20% or nine steals per hitter. The change in the size of bases, pitch clock, and only two throws to a base led to a spike in stolen bases. The new target for steals for 2024 is 198 to finish in the top 20% (14 per hitter). Wins (W) – This is the total number of wins by your fantasy pitching staff (only players in the starting lineup). Typically, I try to manage my team to get enough starts in the year to earn four wins per week, 104 wins over a 26-week season. In 2023, 94 wins in the high-stakes market placed in the top 20%. Earned Run Average (ERA) – Each team adds up the number of earned runs allowed by their pitching staff divided by the total number of innings pitched times nine innings to determine their team ERA. The goal is to have the lowest ERA in the league. A fantasy team needed an ERA of 3.718 to finish in the top 20%. I typically use a 3.50 as my ERA target in a 12-team format. Walks + Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP) – This is the trickiest stat for new fantasy managers to get a handle on. WHIP is a way to get the value of each pitcher’s skill set. All hits allowed are added to the total number of walks allowed divided by the total number of innings pitched by your starting pitching staff to come up with each team’s WHIP. The lowest WHIP earns the most league points. A fantasy manager needed a whip of 1.194 in 2023 in 12-team leagues to finish in the top 20%. Strikeouts (K) – Each team adds up the strikeouts from the pitchers in their starting lineup each week. Some pitchers have posted impressive strikeout totals over the last few seasons, raising the bar to compete in this category. In 12-team formats, a fantasy team needed 1,454 strikeouts to finish in the top 20% last year. Saves (SV) – Each team adds up the total number of saves by their pitching staff to compete in this category. A fantasy team will need about 78 saves to be competitive in saves in 12-team leagues. League Structure A standard 12-team Roto league will consist of about 30 rounds. Each team selects a player in each round while filling in their starting line-up, which includes 14 hitters and nine pitchers. The 14 batters consist of two catchers, one first baseman, one second baseman, one shortstop, one third baseman, one middle infielder (second base or shortstop), one corner infielder (first base or third base), five outfielders, and one utility (any batter). Most fantasy managers will draft seven starting pitchers and two closers (pitchers who pitch in close games that earn saves) for their starting pitching lineup. The seven bench spots can consist of any players you desire. In 12-team leagues, having a couple of extra starters and a third pitcher with a chance at saves would make sense. The last four bench slots could look like this: one upside young player with future playing time, one backup outfielder, one backup middle infielder, and one backup corner infielder. Player Pool Once a fantasy manager has a feel for each category on the
2024 San Francisco Giants Preview
2024 San Francisco Giants Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as
2024 San Francisco Giants Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 San Francisco Giants preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 San Francisco Giants Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
After a surprising season in 2021 (107-55), the Giants have been four games under .500 over the past two years with no tickets to the postseason. They scored 130 fewer runs (674) than in 2021 (804). San Francisco has nine playoff appearances since 1989, with their highlight run coming between 2010 and 2014 (three World Series titles). The Giants have five other championships (1905, 1921, 1922, 1933, and 1954).
San Fran ranked 11th in ERA (4.02) while dropping three notches with their relievers (3.92 ERA – 14th). Their bullpen led the majors in wins (50) while finishing four in saves (50). They pitched 705.1 innings (most in baseball), leading to 703 strikeouts (1st) and 33 losses. The Giants slipped to 24th in runs (674), 19th in home runs (174), and 23rd in RBIs (651). They had the league’s lowest stolen base total (57) on 73 attempts (78.1%).
In the offseason, San Francisco signed DH Jorge Soler, 3B Matt Chapman, C Tom Murphy, and P Jordan Hicks while landing Korean import OF Jung Hoo Lee. They moved on from SP Sean Manaea, OF Joc Pederson, SS Brandon Crawford, SP Alex Wood, SS Paul DeJong, OF AJ Pollock, and RP John Brebbia. SP Robbie Ray came via a trade with Seattle for OF Mitch Haniger and SP Anthony DeSclafani.
The Giants’ offense has an exciting blend of veteran bats paired with three players (Jung Hoo Lee, Patrick Bailey, and SS Marco Luciano) with upside. There will be many strikeouts, but more balls will land in the seats.
The ninth inning should be in good shape with the development of RP Camilo Doval. The structure and depth of San Francisco’s starting rotation behind SP Logan Webb and SP Kyle Harrison aren’t ideal. SP Jordan Hicks has an injury history, and he hasn’t made a start since 2022. The fourth and fifth starting options will be an open competition in spring training.
Starting Lineup
OF Jung Hoo Lee
Over seven seasons in Korea, Lee hit .340 with 581 runs, 65 home runs, 515 RBIs, and 69 stolen bases over 3,746 at-bats. His best two years came in 2020 (.333/85/15/101/12 over 544 at-bats) and 2022 (.349/85/23/113/5 over 553 at-bats). He had more walks (383 – 9.7%) than strikeouts (304 – 7.7%). His average hit rate (1.444) in his career suggests 15 home runs would be a lot to ask in his rookie year.
Last year, Lee missed time due to a broken left ankle that required surgery. His exit velocity is projected to be lower than 89.0%. His groundball rate was high over the past two seasons (58% and 59%), hurting his power early in his major league career, especially when adding his new home ballpark.
Fantasy Outlook: Lee has an ADP of 248 in the high-stakes market, as fantasy drafters don’t have a good feel for how to rate him in his rookie season. I almost view him as a player making the jump from AA to the majors. The Giants saw enough in his game to pony up $113 million for six seasons in December. I won’t be drafting Lee in any league this year. I view him as a player with a 10/15 skill set out of the gate. A possible .290 hitter with about 70 runs and 65 RBIs unless he gets well over 600 at-bats.
2B Thairo Estrada
Estrada had a slow path to the path majors after signing with the Yankees in the summer of 2016 at age 16. He hit .285 over nine seasons in the minors with 294 runs, 35 home runs, 224 RBIs, and 58 stolen bases over 1,994 at-bats. His bat progressed in 2021 at AAA (.333/37/9/40/6 over 210 at-bats), giving Estrada a path to the majors.
He made the Giants’ opening-day roster in 2022, but Estrada struggled in April (.234/14/2/14/3 over 77 at-bats) while showing an uptick in average in May (.322/13/0/6/3 over 87 at-bats). Over his final 324 at-bats, he hit .250 with 44 runs, 12 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 15 steals. His strikeout rate (16.5) beat the league average with a below-par walk rate (6.1).
Last year, Estrada missed 10 days in late May (left wrist) and a month in midsummer (broken right hand). After an excellent start to the year in April (.346/19/4/10/8 over 104 at-bats), he hit .251 with 44 runs, 10 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases over his final 391 at-bats. His bat has minimal value against left-handed pitching (.257 with one home run and 10 RBIs over 140 at-bats).
His average hit rate (1.537) remains below his resume in 2019 and 2021. Estrada posted his highest contact batting average (.357) in his time in the majors. His flyball rate (34.9) was a career-high, with a step back in his HR/FB rate (10.9). He ranked 371st in exit velocity (85.9) and 306th in hard-hit rate (33.7). His strikeout rate (22.6) and walk rate (4.2) were below his previous results with the Giants.
Fantasy Outlook: Estrada has a winning floor in home runs and stolen bases, especially if he can stay on the field for 550 at-bats. His ADP (137) ranks him 12th at second base. His speed clears a path to hit higher in San Francisco’s lineup, but his approach isn’t ideal. Don’t consider him a stud, but Estrada offers a steady five-category skill set…
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2024 San Diego Padres Preview
2024 San Diego Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well
2024 San Diego Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 San Diego Padres preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 San Diego Padres Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Padres tried to compete with the Dodgers over the past few seasons by adding some top-tier players. Their choices weren’t thought out well, leading to a flawed plan and a regressive team build. San Diego made the postseason twice over the past four years after 13 consecutive missed playoff trips. They come off back-to-back winning seasons (89-73 and 82-80). The Padres made the postseason only five times in the team’s 55-year history. Their only World Series appearance (loss) came in 1998.
San Diego had the second-best ERA (3.73) in baseball in 2023, thanks to Blake Snell (2.25 ERA over 180.0 innings). The bullpen only had 22 wins (lowest in baseball), 30 losses, and 36 saves over 577.1 innings with a 3.80 ERA (10th) and 575 strikeouts. The Padres ranked 13th in runs (752), home runs (205), and RBIs (719). They stole 137 bases on 169 attempts (81.1%).
In the offseason, the Padres acquired SP Michael King, SP Drew Thorpe, SP Randy Vasquez, SP Jhony Britto, and C Kyle Higashioka for OF Juan Soto and OF Trent Grisham. They lost SP Blake Snell, SP Seth Lugo, SP Michael Wacha, CL Josh Hader, SP Nick Martinez, C Gary Sanchez, and SP Rich Hill to free agency. San Diego signed RP Yuki Matsui, RP Wandy Peralta, RP Woo-Suk Go, and OF Cal Mitchell while claiming SP Luis Patino off waivers.
Two veteran arms (Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish) lead their starting rotation. They hope that their three “New Editions” can dance their way to the mound every fifth day in the near future. The ninth inning is in flux, inviting more drama late in games.
San Diego has two star bats (Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado) supported by two complementary players (Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim). The rest of the offense looks below the league average as a group.
Starting Lineup
OF Fernando Tatis
In 2021, Tatis had a sensational first 274 at-bats (67 runs, 28 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases). Unfortunately, his bat had a step back in value after the All-Star break (.278/32/14/37/5 over 205 at-bats). He missed 10 days over the first half of April (shoulder), another nine days in May (COVID-19), a slight scare in June (one game), and 16 more days in late July and early August (shoulder).
After missing all of 2022 with his suspension and recovery from shoulder surgery, Tatis returned to the Padres starting lineup on April 20th. Despite hitting nine home runs over his first 150 at-bats, he had weakness in his runs (21) and RBIs (19) with a short batting average (.240). He played much better over the next third of the season (.293/38/9/34/12 over 215 at-bats). Tatis drove the bus home with more subpar play (.233 with 32 runs, seven home runs, and 25 RBIs) except for 12 stolen bases.
His strikeout rate (22.2) was the best of his career, with a league-average walk rate (8.4) that was below his two best seasons (10.5 and 11.4). He had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.341 – .432 over his first 1,036 at-bats with the Padres). In addition, his average hit rate (1.743) was below his first three years.
Tatis had regression in his exit velocity (91.9) and hard-hit rate (49.3). He finished with a lower flyball rate (33.6) than in 2021 (39.9), and his HR/FB rate (17.0) was well below his previous three seasons (31.9, 29.3, and 32.1).
Fantasy Outlook: The luster of Tatis looks diminished this year due to the loss of Juan Soto hitting behind him in the lineup and the lower outlook of the Padres offense in 2024. In addition, he lost his shortstop qualification. His ADP (8) fits his potential, plus his five-category skill set. A correction in batting average is expected while offering a 30/30 floor in home runs and steals. I don’t expect elite RBI chances, so he must drive himself in more to help his counting stats…
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2024 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
2024 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as
2024 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers preview and insight are courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Dodgers Express has been on the fast track for the past 11 seasons, leading to a playoff berth each year and three World Series appearances (win in 2020). At this point in the franchise, anything short of a championship title is disappointing. Over the past three seasons, they’ve won 317 of 486 games (65.2%). Los Angeles has six other World Series titles (1955, 1959, 1963, 1965, 1981, and 1988). The Dodgers lost their first seven trips to the World Series from 1916 to 1953 while also losing seven other times when the MLB championship was on the line.
The big prize in the free agency this offseason was Shohei Ohtani. LA invested $700 million into his bat and right pitching arm for the next decade. If that wasn’t enough, the Dodgers also signed SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, OF Teoscar Hernandez, and SP James Paxton. Los Angeles also acquired SP Tyler Glasnow from Tampa for OF Manuel Margot, SP Ryan Pepiot, and OF Jonny DeLuca. The Dodgers promptly signed Glasnow to a four-year extension for $110 million.
Los Angeles slipped to 13th in ERA (4.06), but their bullpen ranked third (3.42 ERA). The Dodgers relievers had 38 wins, 25 losses, and 44 saves over 644.2 innings with 644 strikeouts. They finished second in runs (906), home runs (249), and RBIs (877). Their base stealer swiped 105 bases on 130 attempts (80.8%).
The top of LA’s lineup is elite, with plenty of veteran experience at the back end of the batting order. The shortstop position remains a question mark until Gavin Lux proves himself at the major league level. Their bench has plenty of experience, giving the Dodgers a chance to survive short-term injuries.
Despite improvements to the front end of their starting rotation, Los Angeles needs their aces to prove they can handle the spotlight in the biggest moments of a baseball season. If Walker Buehler’s right arm is healthy, the Dodgers have another special player with potential impact value. Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan give this rotation length and upside, and LA has multiple options as backup plans over the long baseball season – James Paxton, Clayton Kershaw, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone. The ninth inning will be in the hands of RP Evans Phillips until someone knocks him off the closer podium.
Starting Lineup
2B Mookie Betts
The only shortfall for Betts in 2022 was his batting average (.269) due to a weaker contact batting average (.324) and 2022 (.329). In his best season in 2018, he hit .420 when putting the ball in play. He played at an elite level in May (.342/31/12/27/1 over 114 at-bats) and August (.330/30/9/18/5 over 109 at-bats). His combined production in April, June, and September (.217 over 248 with 38 runs, eight home runs, 30 RBIs, and five steals) left something to be desired while also missing the final two weeks in June with a rib injury. Betts played well against left-handed pitching (.308 with 38 runs, 11 home runs, and 29 RBIs over 156 at-bats).
Last season, his contact batting average (.375) moved back into an elite area. Betts has had about the same strikeout rate (15.7) over the past four seasons while seeing his walk rate (13.9) reach a new ceiling. His swing was in beast mode in August (.455/35/11/30/3 over 112 at-bats), along with winning production in May and June (.287 with 47 runs, 18 home runs, 44 RBIs, and six steals over 2022 at-bats). Betts lost his rhythm in September (.244/10/1/9/4 over 86 at-bats), possibly due to a minor foot issue.
His swing path continues to push higher in flyballs (48.5% – 43.8 in his career), with progression in his HR/FB rate (16.7) over the past couple of seasons. Betts ranked 18th in exit velocity (92.4) and 44th in hard-hit rate (48.5). He finished with 60 barrels, compared to 30 in 2021 and 46 in 2022.
Fantasy Outlook: In 2023, Betts ranked fourth in FPGscore (10.01) for hitters (eighth in 2022 – 7.11). His flyball swing path invites some earlier outs unless he repeats his success in power this year. He tends to rank poorly in RBI chances due to his slot in the batting order. Betts does create one of the higher edges in runs scored. His ADP (5) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is helped by him qualifying at second base, where his profile creates a more significant edge. His average hit rate supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats. Let’s go with 135 runs, 30 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 15 steals with a pullback to .290 in batting average…
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2024 Colorado Rockies Preview
2024 Colorado Rockies Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight are courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This 2024 Colorado Rockies Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The Rockies have five consecutive losing seasons while being miles away from the Dodgers in the NL West. They finished 168.5 games out of first place over this span (43 and 41 in 2022 and 2023). Colorado has five playoff appearances in the team’s 31-year history. In their only trip to the World Series, the Boston Red Sox swept them in four games in 2007. Colorado had the worst ERA (5.67) in baseball. They allowed the most hits (1,599), the second-most home runs (234), and the least strikeouts (1,129). Their bullpen had 31 wins, 33 losses, and 32 saves over 647.0 innings with a 5.41 ERA (30th) and 596 strikeouts. The Rockies finished 18th runs (721), 26th in home runs (163), and 20th in RBIs (685). They stole 76 bases on 101 attempts (75.2%). In the offseason, they signed C Jacob Stallings, OF Bradley Zimmer, and SP Dakota Hudson. Colorado acquired SP Cal Quantrill for C Kody Huff. The Rockies moved on from SP Chase Anderson, SP Chris Flexen, RP Brent Suter, and C Austin Wynns. With no pitchers with even league-average ability, it will be another long year for Rockies’ fans. They are projected to have a bottom-three starting rotation and bullpen with no stars moving through their system. Their offensive dreams lie in the hands of OF Nolan Jones and SS Ezequiel Tovar. Colorado hopes 1B Kris Bryant can have a pulse for one season and 2B Brendan Rodgers can stay healthy. The rest of the lineup will be in flux, with a rotation of player looking to make their major league mark. Starting Lineup OF Charlie Blackmon Over his last four seasons, Blackmon hit .275 with 224 runs, 43 home runs, 238 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 1,624 at-bats. He finished 98th (-1.01) and 90th (-0.66) in FPGscore for hitters in 2021 and 2022. His walk rate (9.4) was the best of his career last year while being the most challenging to strike out (13.3%). In 2022, Blackmon hit .241 over his first 166 at-bats last year with 23 runs, seven home runs, and 23 RBIs. He regained his form over the next two months (.296/28/9/36 over 203 at-bats). Unfortunately, his bat lost value in August and September (.248 with nine runs, no home runs, and 19 RBIs over 161 at-bats). Blackmon’s only issue late in the season was a hamstring injury in August (four missed games) and a torn meniscus in his left knee (he sat out the final eight contests). He missed about two months last season with a broken right hand. Over his first 211 at-bats, Blackmon hit .265 with 34 runs, five home runs, and 26 RBIs. Other than batting average (.297), his bat was quiet after returning from his hand injury (23 runs, three home runs, 14 RBIs, and four steals). Despite his fading games, Colorado signed him to a one-year deal for $13 million with some incentives. His RBI rate (17) has been favorable over the previous five seasons, but Blackmon has never had more than 382 RBI chances in any year. He lost his momentum with his average hit rate (1.580) over the past five seasons, which was well below his success in power from 2016 to 2019 (1.772). In addition, his contact batting average (.330) over the past three seasons fell well below his previous four years (.418, .370, .391, and .379). His HR/FB rate (6.5) remains well below his peak seasons (between 16.2 and 19.6). Blackmon had an improved flyball rate (40.3). He finished with a weaker exit velocity (86.4) and hard-hit rate (31.5) while only barreling 39 balls in 2022 and 2023. Fantasy Outlook: The days of being an edge in runs with plenty of power and RBIs are nothing more than a dream. Blackmon will be the Rockies DH this year, potentially leading to more at-bats and a healthier season. His ADP (439) in late February puts him in the free-agent pool in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. With 500 at-bats, Blackmon looks like a .270/75/15/65/5 player. SS Ezequiel Tovar Tovar signed with the Rockies at age 16, making him one of the youngest players at each level of the minors. Coming out of the COVID-19 season, his bat showed growth at A Ball (.309/60/11/54/21 over 298 at-bats). Tovar walked only 14 times (4.3%) while being challenging to strikeout (11.7). He stalled at High A (.239/19/4/18/3 over 134 at-bats) in 2021. His bat showed more potential at AA in 2022 (.318 over 264 at-bats with 39 runs, 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases). His walk rate (8.5) beat the league average with a step back in his strikeout rate (21.7). Tovar went 7-for-21 in his brief time at AAA (three runs, one home run, and two RBIs), and he had 33 at-bats (.212/2/1/2) with the Rockies. Colorado gave him his AAA development year in the majors last year. His volume at-bats led to competitive stats in four categories (79/15/73/11), but Tovar battled his approach all year (strikeout rate – 27.4 and walk rate – 4.1). As a result, his batting average (.253) was a liability. He struggled in April (.214 with 10 runs, no home runs, and eight RBIs) while helping fantasy teams with his combined stats in May, June, and
2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as
2024 Arizona Diamondbacks
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Diamondbacks made the postseason last year for the first time since 2017 despite being outscored by 15 runs (746-761). They turned their surprising run into a World Series appearance against the Texas Rangers, but they failed to take down the championship. Arizona made the playoffs seven times in the team’s 26-year history, with their only World Series title coming in 2001. The last four times the Diamondbacks made the postseason, they failed to follow through with another playoff berth.
Arizona ranked 21st in ERA (4.47), just two spots lower than the Rangers. Their bullpen posted a 4.22 ERA (18th) over 595.0 innings with 38 wins, 27 losses, 44 saves, and 586 strikeouts. The Cardinals’ offense finished 14th in runs (746), 22nd in home runs (166), and 15th in RBIs (706). They had the second-best output in steals (166-for-192) with an excellent success rate (86.5%).
Arizona signed OF Joc Pederson, OF Randal Grichuk, SP Eduardo Rodriguez, and C Tucker Barnhart in the offseason. Arizona parted ways with OF Tommy Pham, 3B Evan Longoria, SP Madison Bumgarner, OF Kyle Lewis, and RP Mark Melancon. The Diamondbacks acquired 3B Eugenio Suarez in a deal with the Mariners for C Seby Zavala and P Carlos Vargas.
Their offense has a blend of promising young players – OF Corbin Carroll, C Gabriel Moreno, and OF Alek Thomas, paired with a veteran presence. Based on their early starting lineup, SS Jordan Lawlar looks poised to earn many at-bats with Arizona this year. If this team is going to make another run at a postseason appearance, they must score more runs and produce a higher total in home runs.
SP Zac Gallen gives the Cardinals one ace, but he is coming off a massive workload in innings pitched (243.2). The combination of SP Merrill Kelly and SP Eduardo Rodriguez allows Arizona to offer competitive innings for hopefully another 60+ starts. If SP Brandon Pfaadt reaches his potential in 2024, this team will be in the hunt for another playoff appearance. The bullpen doesn’t stand out as a difference-maker heading into the spring training.
Starting Lineup
OF Corbin Carroll
Over his first 49 games in the minors, Carroll hit .316 with 45 runs, four home runs, 25 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases over 177 at-bats. He missed a year of development time in 2020 due to no minor league baseball (COVID-19) while seeing his next season cut short by a shoulder injury that required surgery.
His bat hit the ground running in 2022 between AA and AAA (.307 with 89 runs, 24 home runs, 62 RBIs, and 31 steals over 362 at-bats). His walk rate (15.5) screamed top-the-order bat, but his strikeout rate (23.6) came in just above the league average. The Diamondbacks gave Carroll 104 at-bat experience (.260/13/4/14/2). He finished with a few more strikeouts (27.0%) and a weaker walk rate (7.0%), but his pedigree suggested he was a stud in the making.
The Diamondbacks gave Carroll 155 games of action in 2023, leading to impressive stats in all categories, highlighted by his exceptional value in steals (54). He battled a left knee injury, a right shoulder issue, and a minor wrist injury during the year, but he never missed more than two games for any issue. Before the All-Star break, Carroll had the most value in power (.289/63/18/48/26 over 308 at-bats), so his late June/early July shoulder issue may have been the reason for his decline in power (seven home runs over his final 257 at-bats). In September, he cranked up stolen base output (13) to reach the 50-mark.
His swing path was more balanced last season, leading to a career-high (all levels) flyball rate (37.1). Carroll had posted a lower HR/FB rate (15.4) than his more league resume in 2021 and 2022. He improved his strikeout rate (19.4) and walk rate (8.8) while expecting his free passes to rise with more experience.
Carroll only had 34 barrels, with 25 leaving the yard. His exit velocity (90.0) and hard-hit rate (40.9) remain below the top 100 players in baseball.
Fantasy Outlook: Carroll finished last year as the fifth-best batter by FPGscore (9.23) for hitters. Based on his average hit rate (1.776) and contact batting average (.366), there is more upside in power and batting average when looking at those stats in his minor league career. His ADP (5) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship supports his results from 2024. Carroll has the profile of someone who could hit over .320 with 30+ home runs.
If he reaches those totals, added to his value in steals, Carroll has a unique foundation skill set to start a fantasy team. Between walks and hits, he could potentially get only base 40 to 50 more times in 2024, creating a higher ceiling in runs and steals. I am starting to fall in love, and my wheels are spinning on how to build my team with him. Sometimes, the runner-up prize is the best-looking option in the room…
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2024 St. Louis Cardinals Preview
2024 St. Louis Cardinals Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as
2024 St. Louis Cardinals Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 St. Louis Cardinals preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 St. Louis Cardinals Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
From 2000 to 2022, the Cardinals reached the postseason 16 times with two World Series titles and two losses in the big dance. Last year, they went 71-91, leading to a last-place finish in the NL Central, their worst ranking in division play since 1990. St. Louis has nine other championships (1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, and 1982).
They finished 24th in ERA (4.79), with only a slight uptick in pitching from their relievers (4.47 ERA – 23rd). The Cardinals’ bullpen had 28 wins, 27 losses, and 36 saves over 579.2 innings with 562 strikeouts. Their offense also underperformed expectations in runs (719 – 19th), home runs (209 – 12th), and RBIs (697 – 17th). St. Louis swiped 101 bases on 130 attempts (77.8).
In the offseason, the Cardinals tried to beef up their starting rotation by signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. They also added 1B Matt Carpenter and RP Keynan Middleton via free agency. In a minor trade with Tampa Bay, St. Louis acquired RP Andrew Kittredge for OF Richie Palacios. RP Ryan Fernandez was added in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Their only losses to free agency were SP Dakota Hudson, C Andrew Knizner, RP Jacob Barnes, SP Jake Woodford, and RP Ryan Tepera.
St. Louis has a veteran foundation to their offense, but it needs OF Jordan Walker, SS Masyn Winn, and 2B Nolan Gorman to reach new heights this year. They have enough depth and power to be a top-10 offense in baseball if their key players produce as expected.
The front of their starting rotation will keep the Cardinals in many games, and they have enough depth to contend in the NL Central if their key pitchers make 30 starts. A healthy season out of RP Ryan Helsley will set up their bullpen much better in 2024.
Starting Lineup
2B Brendan Donovan
Over four short seasons in the minors, Donovan hit .285 with 157 runs, 21 home runs, 127 RBIs, and 23 steals over 867 at-bats. His walk rate (12.0) had top-of-the-batting-order order upside while offering a favorable strikeout rate (17.9). His contact batting average (.339) regressed as he moved up the Cardinals’ system.
With 169 at-bats of experience at AAA (.296/35/7/31/4), St. Louis called him up in April of 2022. From May 10th to June 28th, Donovan gave the Cardinals reasonable replacement value stats (.325/26/2/24/2 over 160 at-bats). Other than runs (35), he wasn’t much of a fantasy factor after the All-Star break (.274 over 175 at-bats with three home runs and 15 RBIs). Donovan didn’t have a home run off a lefty pitcher over 61 at-bats.
In 2023, Donovan drew attention in March due to his expected starting role, some spring training buzz, and his 2022 approach with the Cardinals. Unfortunately, his bat didn’t fire last year in any month, and he ended the year on the injured list for the final two months with an elbow injury (flexor strain) that required surgery.
His swing path did improve based on his lower groundball rate (46.5), paired with his higher flyball rate (30.3) and HR/FB rate (13.4). Donovan has a favorable strikeout rate (14.3) with some pullback in his walk rate (8.9). Donovan finished with a higher exit velocity (89.3 – 87.7 in 2022) and hard-hit rate (40.6 – 37.7 in 2022).
Fantasy Outlook: The early reports have Donovan having limited range in his throwing to him seeing more time at second base. The Cardinals only gave him 55 at-bats vs. lefties last year, leading to a .236 batting average with no home runs and one RBI. His ADP (292) in the high-stakes market looks too high, with him expecting to have a platoon role. Donovan is trending higher in power, and he has some speed (19 steals) on his minor league resume. I only see 450 at-bats with no defining edge at the point of his career, so I’ll leave this club in the bag, especially coming off an injury…
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2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well
2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
After four consecutive years of regression in their winning percentage, the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise turned the winning needle in a positive direction in 2023. They improved by 14 wins (76-86) but missed the postseason for the eighth straight year. Over the past 31 seasons, the Pirates made the playoffs three times (2013 to 2015). Their last World Series title came in 1979, when “We Are Family” was the theme song to their success. Pittsburgh has four other championship titles (1908, 1925, 1960, and 1971).
The Pirates finished 22nd in ERA (4.60), with a slight bump in success by their bullpen (4.27 ERA – 19th). Their relievers had 32 wins, 29 losses, and 47 saves over 626.1 innings with 638 strikeouts. Pittsburgh had the same ranking in runs (692 – 22nd) and RBIs (662), with less success in home runs (159 – 28th). They stole 117 bases on 158 attempts (74.1%).
In the offseason, they signed C Yasmini Grandal, 1B Rowdy Tellez, SP Martin Perez, RP Aroldis Chapman, and SP Josh Fleming. The Pirates acquired SP Marco Gonzales from the Braves for cash and a player to be named later. They also picked up OF Edward Olivares in a minor deal with Kansas City. Their only two losses were SP Vince Velasquez and RP Jarlin Garcia.
The development of this offense starts with SS Oneil Cruz, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, and OF Henry Davis. Pittsburgh has four veteran bats – OF Bryan Reynolds, OF Andrew McCutchen, C Yasmani Grandal, and 1B Rowdy Tellez. A move to league average in scoring would be a win in 2024, and they must hit more home runs.
Pittsburgh has a better chance at success with the backend of their bullpen than their starting rotation. They have an ace in the hole – SP Paul Skenes, who should be on the fast track to the majors. Six of their top 10 prospects appear to be pitchers.
Starting Lineup
2B Ji Hwan Bae
After starting his minor league career with no power in 2018 and 2019 (.306 with 93 runs, no home runs, 51 RBIs, and 41 steals over 457 at-bats), Bae started to work his way to the majors with better success the following two seasons after the year off due to COVID-19. His best output came in 2022 at AAA (.289/81/8/53/30 over 419 at-bats). Pittsburgh gave him 10 games of experience (.333/5/0/6/3 over 33 at-bats). He had a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.7) with a favorable strikeout rate (18.8) in his five years in the minors.
Last year, Bae made the Pirates out of spring training, leading to 214 at-bats (.238/37/2/19/20) over the first three months. He delivered his best production in April (.250 with 17 runs, two home runs, nine RBIs, and 11 stolen bases over 80 at-bats). Pittsburgh placed him on the injured list in early July with an ankle injury, costing him about six weeks. Bae had no fantasy value after the All-Star break (.217 with 17 runs, no home runs, 13 RBIs, and four steals).
His average hit rate (1.351) was below his 2021 (1.500) and 2022 (1.488) seasons in the minors, where he appears to have the ability to hit 10 home runs. Bae had weakness in his contract batting average (.318), an area of more strength in his minor league career (.377). His strikeout rate (24.8) and walk rate (8.1) were below his previous career path. He ranked in the bottom third of the league in exit velocity (88.1) and hard-hit rate (36.8). His groundball rate (59.3) was extremely high in his limited time in the majors (closer to 50% in his minor league career).
Fantasy Outlook: Bae is far from a lock to earn a full-time starting job in 2024, but he has the foundation skill set to hit leadoff in the lineup. His batting average projects much higher, and I don’t view him as an empty power hitter. His ADP (488) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft leagues. Bae scored 50% of the time last year when he was on base via a hit or walk. His bat came up short against right-handed pitching (.213 with two home runs and 24 RBIs over 230 at-bats). He has 10/30 potential but should be treated as a player to ride only if batting up in the Pirates’ lineup, stealing bases, and showing a better approach. Bae’s homerless streak stands at 301 at-bats…
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2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Milwaukee Brewers preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
Over the past six seasons, the Brewers made the postseason five times with three NL Central titles. Milwaukee reached the playoffs only four other times from 1969 to 2017. Their only trip to the World Series came in 1982.
The Brewers led the majors in ERA (3.71) while finishing second in bullpen ERA (3.40). Their relievers had 38 wins, 25 losses, and 46 saves over 565.2 innings with 579 strikeouts. They scored 728 runs (17th), hit 165 home runs (24th), and drove in 696 runs (18th). Milwaukee stole 129 bases on 158 attempts (81.6%).
In the offseason, they traded SP Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for SP DL Hall and 2B Joey Ortiz. The Brewers picked up 1B Jake Bauers in a minor deal with the Yankees for OF Jace Avina and OF Brian Sanchez. Milwaukee signed 1B Rhys Hopkins, C Gary Sanchez, SP Jakob Junis, and SP Joe Ross. They lost 1B Carlos Santana, OF Jesse Winker, SP Brandon Woodruff, 3B Brian Anderson, SP Eric Lauer, 1B Luke Voit, 1B Rowdy Tellez, and RP Andrew Chafin to free agency.
Their starting rotation is in rebuild mode after losing their top two arms last year, pointing to below-league-average success in 2024. The ninth inning should be in good hands with CL Devin Williams.
Milwaukee lacks a true star offensively. Their success requires their five young players to deliver competitive at-bats. I don’t see a winning team in 2024.
Starting Lineup
OF Christian Yelich
After his impact season in 2019 (.329/100/44/97/30 over 489 at-bats), Yelich hit .243 over 1,174 at-bats with 208 runs, 35 home runs, 130 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases over the following three years.
Despite his perceived weaker output in 2022, he finished 46th in FPGscore (2.35), thanks to his value in runs (1.71) and steals (1.92). Yelich only hit .207 over 213 at-bats with 32 runs, four home runs, 22 RBIs, and six steals when batting fourth. He battled a minor back issue in July and September.
Last year, Yelich had rebound in his game, leading to three-year highs in runs (106), home runs (19), RBIs (76), and stolen bases (28). His bat had the most success from May through July, leading to a .314 batting average with 54 runs, 13 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 17 steals over 290 at-bats. A back injury cost him some playing time in September, paired with a down final 157 at-bats (30 runs, three home runs, 17 RBIs, and six stolen bases). His contact batting average (.373) improved for four consecutive seasons while delivering a winning RBI rate (19).
Yelich finished with a rebound in his strikeout rate (22.2). He continues to have strength in his walk rate (12.3). His bat did lose value against left-handed pitching (.235 with three home runs and 11 RBIs over 145 at-bats).
His swing path continues to deliver a tremendous number of ground balls (57.3% – 55.9 in his career), but he had a spike in his HR/FB rate (20.2 – 14.7 in 2022 ~ over 32.0% from 2019 to 2020). Yelich did maintain a high exit velocity (91.7 – 44th) and hard-hit rate (50.1 – 25th), and worm-killing launch angle (3.5 – 395th).
Fantasy Outlook: Yelich was the 22nd-ranked hitter by FPGscore (4.35) last season. His ADP (82 – 46th batter) is well below last year’s success but aligned with 2022. Based on his price point, he already had a value feel, even with some regression in his stats. I trust his uptick in speed more than his power. In addition, Milwaukee doesn’t project to be a high-powered offense. A steady puzzle piece with the talent to be better with an improved swing path…
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