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Category: Season Long – MLB

A Deep Dive into Winning with Baseball Metrics

Shawn Childs is a 7-figure lifetime winner in high-stakes fantasy sports. Yes, you read that right. His analytical and thoughtful approach will have you well-prepared on draft day to select sleepers before they break out! Your opponents will be jealous.  You’ll be bragging all season long sitting atop the standings.  The introduction and advancement of analytics have drastically changed Major League Baseball. That’s also true in Rotisserie and fantasy baseball, where new metrics can make a huge impact on the upcoming season. FPGscore The development of FPGscore started with the theory around Average Player Scores. When drafting, it is challenging to determine a baseball player’s value when you have multiple positions in the fantasy baseball market, never mind numerous scoring categories. The average player theory is a way to compare a player’s value for overall impact in team-building in 5 X 5 roto formats and within the spectrum of each position or category.  Once we have a baseline of the average player, we can determine which players have the most significant edge. After establishing these scores at each position, the next step is then comparing the best option at other positions.  Each season, the player pool changes in the fantasy baseball world. Some positions will have more depth, and others will only have a few reliable options. Therefore, when a fantasy manager is preparing to do his draft prep, he wants to find each position’s hidden values. Doing this allows drafters to select the most potent options at the other positions early in the draft.  I developed a way to determine each player’s value with each category relevant to their production. For example, hitters have five offensive categories (batting average, runs, home runs, RBI, and stolen bases). Pitchers also have five categories (wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and saves). With these scores, a fantasy drafter can quickly look at stats to see which players have the most value, either by last year’s stats or this year’s projections from any source. When using projections, a fantasy manager’s success will only be as strong as their ability to interpret information. Therefore, finding the best source for that information is essential.  Our FPGscore is built for 12-team, 5-by-5 Roto leagues with once-a-week pitching moves. I could modify these options for 10-team and 15-team leagues in the future, and we may even add bi-weekly pitching move formats. The most challenging part for any fantasy gamer to understand is draft rankings or cheat sheets due to the underlying information behind each player’s profile. At any position in baseball, I may only like a handful of players. When I rank them, I can’t leave players I don’t like off the cheat sheet, and it wouldn’t be fair to list them poorly based on my opinion.  Here’s a look at the midpoint values in 2022 in a field of 2,388 teams in all 10 categories: BA: .2525, R: 980, HR: 265, RBI: 954, SB: 113, W: 87, SV: 57, ERA: 3.505, WHIP: 1.164, K: 1,318 Average Draft Position The fantasy market uses ADPs (average draft position) to prepare for the upcoming draft season. ADPs give drafters a feel for a player’s value in the open market. It is a great tool, but a fantasy player must understand the value of the information.  ADPs from mock drafts have less merit as all teams don’t complete their drafts, and many drafters may lose interest at some point during the draft. The best information in fantasy baseball comes from drafters playing for real money or fantasy managers competing in a real league that will be played out during the season. Value of FPGscores  FPGscore can work with any projections to deliver results. First, I research all 30 baseball teams. I then do our team profiles for each team’s projections. With this information, I provide rankings based on the FPGscores. Also, I can back-check the results from the previous season to see how each player stacked up against their competition. The goal is to compare players with different skill sets and find which options have the most value to a fantasy team. At the same time, I can deliver weekly rankings based on playing time and opportunity. I break the season into 27 weeks (two half weeks – Week 1 and the All-Star break) to develop the weekly results. If a player is projected to play in seven games, he’ll have a better chance to produce stats in the counting categories. More playing time doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll have a higher score than a player with a much higher skill set with five games. Note: FPGscore equations are adjusted each season for the current playing field in major league baseball. If home runs decline, a big power hitter will be rewarded for his edge in home runs. Likewise, an elite base stealer will have a higher impact in the stolen base category if steals are scarce. Wins Category The midpoint for wins in 2022 was 87, divided into nine pitching slots to come up with 9.111 wins per pitcher. I then used the overall standing from a league with 2,388 teams to determine the points gained for a win or lack of a win. First, I used +/- 750 spots in the overall standing to get a range of points gained or lost from the midpoint of wins. It was amazing to see 1,575 teams fall between 76 and 96 wins. Next, I divided 1,500 overall points by 19 wins to find that each win was worth 78.95 overall points. There were 199 leagues in this competition, so each win within a single league environment was worth .39673 league points. ERA and WHIP Categories The midpoint in innings for the ERA and WHIP categories rose to 1,313 in 2022 (1,344 in 2019 and 1,269 in 2021). ERA (3.791) and WHIP (1.188) showed improvement last season. I then subtracted the innings pitched from 1,313. Next, I multiplied that number times (.3894 = 3.505/9). This data gave me the total number of runs

2022 Fantasy Baseball: Baltimore Orioles Team Outlook

Player profiles, stats and analysis for Baltimore Orioles hitters and pitchers. Shawn Childs – as published on SI. The Orioles have been the cellar dwellers in the AL East over their last four full seasons (fourth over a 60-game schedule in 2020 with a 25-35 record). They won 54 games or fewer in 2018 (47-115), 2019 (54-108) and 2021 (52-110). Baltimore finished a combined 158 games out of first place over these three seasons. Last year, they finished last in the majors in ERA (5.84), which was more than a run-and-a-half higher than the league average. In essence, the Orioles pitching staff gave up two-plus runs a game to the Rays (3.67 ERA) and Yankees (3.74 ERA). In addition, Baltimore allowed the most home runs (258) in baseball. Their offense finished 26th in runs scored (659) with 195 home runs (17th) and 54 stolen bases (25th). On the positive side, the age of their average batter came in at 26.7 (youngest offensive team in the majors). The Orioles signed 2B Rougned Odor, C Jacob Nottingham, C Anthony Bemboom and SP Jordan Lyles in the offseason. The best player lost to free agency was 3B Maikel Franco, who signed with the Nationals. Baltimore has two elite prospects (C Adley Rutschman and SP Grayson Rodriguez) in their farm system. Both players had success at AA in 2021, pointing to their major league debuts coming sometime after May. Shortstop and third base have questionable options in the middle of January, but the Orioles may upgrade those positions via free agency after the lockout ends. The foundation of Baltimore’s offense is built around 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Trey Mancini, OF Cedric Mullins and OF Austin Hays. The starting rotation has one pitcher (John Means) of value. Many of their pitching prospects gained some major league experience in 2021, but no arm appeared ready to handle an entire season of starts in the majors. Without improvement in the foundation of their starting staff, the Orioles can’t make a run at even the .500 mark. Baltimore’s bullpen also had the worst ERA (5.70) in baseball while earning 28 wins, 34 losses and 26 saves. They allowed 109 home runs over 666.2 innings with 296 walks and 637 strikeouts. Every role in this bullpen will be in flux again in 2022. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins helped many fantasy owners win league titles in his first full season with Baltimore. He outperformed his five-year minor league resume (.265 over 2,013 at-bats with 318 runs, 51 home runs, 213 RBI and 110 stolen bases) by a wide margin in batting average (.291) and home runs (30). Before 2021, Mullins never hit more than 14 home runs in any season in the minors. His walk rate (8.7) fell in line with his success in the minors in 2019 (8.9). He lowered his strikeout rate to 18.5%, but it still came in higher than his minor league career (15.2). Mullins had a similar batting average at home (.294) and on the road (.287) while delivering 22 of his 30 home runs in Baltimore. His swing path came in balanced while setting a new top in his HR/FB rate (15.5). He appeared to square up more balls compared to a high number of infield flyouts over 204 at-bats with the Orioles in 2019 and 2020. Fantasy Outlook This draft season, Mullins has an early ADP of 29, making him a much more challenging player to roster. I respect his value in steals, and his approach should come in above the league average. However, he struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 11), and Mullins would need a lot to go right to repeat his output in power. With an entire season of at-bats, I’ll set his bar at .270 with 80 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI and a chance at 35-plus steals. OF Austin Hays Three games into 2021, Hays landed on the injured list for two weeks with a hamstring issue. The same injury cost him another 14 games in late May and early June. Over the first four months of the year, he hit .237 with 43 runs, 10 home runs and 36 RBI over 266 at-bats. Hays found his hitting stroke over his final 58 games (.279 over 222 at-bats with 30 runs, 12 home runs, 35 RBI). His average hit rate (1.800) fell in line with his 2018 and 2019 seasons, but he finished with a weaker contact batting average (.328). Hays handled himself well against lefties (.308 with 11 home runs and 30 RBI over 198 at-bats). His walk rate (5.3) remains in a weak area while posting a better than league average strikeout rate (20.2). Fantasy Outlook Early in his minor league career, Hays had the look of a 30-plus home run hitter with a high floor in batting average. Unfortunately, injuries have cost him development time at the major league level, but his bat did shine with runners on base (RBI rate – 17) in 2021. In addition, he’ll chip in with a handful of steals, and Baltimore should hit him between second and fifth in the batting order this year. Hays looks poised to push over 30 home runs with a sneaky ceiling in batting average. His ADP (207) puts him in buying range while still owning injury risk. 1B Ryan Mountcastle In his first full season with Baltimore, Mountcastle underachieved in batting average (.232) and contact batting average (.320). He hit .295 in his minor-league career over 2,078 at-bats with 70 home runs, 274 RBI and 27 stolen bases, with a much higher contact batting average (.375). He struggled over his 48 games in 2021 (.225 with four home runs, 20 RBI and three steals over 173 at-bats) due to a high strikeout rate (32.1). Mountcastle played well in June (.327/17/9/26), followed by a quiet July (.205/10/3/10). Despite missing 10 days in August, he finished the year with an uptick in power over his final 48 games (.262

The Dongers Club – 2020 MLB Predictions

We’re Live! Now just 48 hours away from the first game of the season between the Yankees and the defending Champion Washington Nationals from Washington, D.C. as finally — yes, finally we are going to have Major League Baseball here

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