On the Mark: Week 4 NFL Over/Under Prop Picks
On the Mark: After a very successful 2-1 “Mark” in Week 3 (+2.53 units), we have our sights locked on several players ready to outperform their projections before the calendar flips to October. After a successful 2-1 “Mark” in Week 3 (+2.53 units), Mark Deming targets players set to outperform projections before October. Written by Mark Deming, former #1 ranked fantasy player in the world. Let’s dive right in! Nico Collins Over 6.5 Receptions (+200) Collins heads into Week 4 boasting some impressive stats. He’s one of just two wide receivers forecasted for 7+ receptions and 110+ receiving yards, per our award-winning FullTime Projections, this week. Across five career matchups against Tennessee, Collins has racked up 21 catches for 286 yards and two touchdowns. Fresh off a stellar Week 3 performance of eight receptions for 109 yards and a score, let’s invest in him to carry over that momentum with a healthy plus-odds opportunity. Patrick Mahomes Over 37.5 Passing Attempts (+165) According to our comprehensive FullTime Fantasy data, Mahomes is projected to lead all quarterbacks in pass attempts during Week 4, with an estimated 41 pass attempts. Since the start of the 2024 season, Mahomes has exceeded 38 pass attempts in 10 games. In the last three matchups where the Ravens visited Arrowhead Stadium, the games have averaged 51 total points scored. Prior to their Week 3 tilt against the Lions—where Baltimore leaned heavily on a dominant rushing attack—opposing quarterbacks were averaging 45.5 pass attempts against the Ravens’ vulnerable defense. Omarion, Hampton Over 80 Rushing Yards (+165) With veteran RB Najee Harris out for the season due to injury, the Chargers’ focus on a ground-and-pound philosophy opens the door for Hampton to step up as a true bell-cow RB1. Before Harris went down, the team looked ready to roll with a committee approach in the backfield. The talented rookie is now poised to deliver some monster rushing production, commencing with an enticing Week 4 clash against the Giants – who’ve been coughing up 153 rushing yards per game over their first three contests. Fire him up in all lineups! Christian McCaffrey Over 50 Receiving Yards (+115) Based upon an in-depth data deep dive, San Francisco star RB Christian McCaffrey is poised for a strong receiving performance on Sunday against Jacksonville, as our FullTime Projections predicts 7+ receptions out of the backfield. CMC, who boasts an average of 8.5 yards per reception in his career, has posted 8 receptions of 20+ yards over the last three seasons. Facing a Jacksonville defense that is allowing an average of 5.9 yards per catch to opposing running backs through three games, let’s grab the plus-odds on an elite RB to eclipse a projection he has surpassed in all three games thus far this season. NFL Stats | Player Rankings
Vegas vs FullTime: Week 4 NFL TD Prop Picks
Vegas vs Fulltime Rankings: Top Plus-Money Anytime Touchdown Props For Week 4 Thursday Night Football fell short, but our series is up 14.7 units. Check top Week 4 NFL TD prop picks! Playing in leagues like the Fantasy Football World Championships (FFWC) that require double-flex starting options, identifying players who could explode on a weekly basis can lead to a winning formula. Every week this season, I will be taking a look at players who not only offer immense value to those looking to invest in players outside of fantasy football, but also help fantasy managers lock in on players who may be flying under-the-radar on your bench or waiver waiver. Let’s take a deeper dive into the best plus-money options in Week 4 of the 2025 season in comparison to our elite-winning Fulltime Fantasy Projections. Top Values for Touchdown Prop Bets WR Nico Collins +110 Fulltime Projection: 1.0 (100%) After cashing for us in Week’s 2 and 3, my Respected Money model projections say it is time to invest in a triple-pop. Despite disappointingly ranking as the overall WR20 in PPR formats, Collins does strongly rank 10th in target share (29.1%) and 18th in air yards (262). Respected Money Note: 6 of his 7 TDs (85.7%) came at home last season But wait…. a deeper dive reveals that 14 of his last 16 TDs (87.5%) over the last two seasons have come at NRG Stadium! WR Amon-Ra St. Brown +110 Fulltime Projection: 0.75 (75%) Respected Money model projections strongly indicate supporting Jared Goff’s top passing target, in Week 4 at home against Cleveland. ASB, who is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (4), impressively ranks 5th among all wideouts in First Read Targets (22). When the Lions get in the red-zone ASB gets the volume scoring 38 total touchdowns in his 69 career regular season games (55%). Respected Money Note: Dating back to last season, ASB has scored an eye-popping 8 touchdowns in his last 10 home games (80%) at Ford Field. WR Rome Odunze +135 Fulltime Projection: 1.0 (75%) Odunze cashed for us in Week 4 and we are back in support of the overall WR4 in FFWC Main Event high stakes formats for a second consecutive week. Through three weeks Odunze leads the Bears with a staggering 94.7% snap percentage, which has resulted in being tied among all NFL wideouts in touchdowns (4). Ranking 8th in targets (27) and air yards (334), the talented second-year WR importantly ranks 8th in Red Zone Target Share (36.4%). Respected Money Note: Investing at healthy plus-odds in a player who has scored in every game this season (4 total TDs) – in a matchup indoors at Allegiant Stadium – against a Raiders defense allowing an average of 14 receptions for 183.67 yards and 4 touchdowns to opposing WRs. Top Moonshots That Could Lead To Glory RB Quinshon Judkins +160 Fulltime Projection: 0.80 (80%) Since making his NFL debut, Judkins is witnessing strong volume averaging 16 touches per game. Averaging an impressive 5.5 yards per carry, the rookie running back will now face a Lions’ defense that has allowed a rushing touchdown in all three games this season (J. Jacobs, D. Swift, D. Henry). The juice is worth the squeeze! WR Malik Nabers +185 Fulltime Projection: 0.75 (75%) Several factors indicate that Nabers is worthy of a Moonshot play: Russell Wilson has been benched and gamescript favors the Giants in full pass mode in the second half playing from behind against the high-powered Chargers. Expect rookie signal-caller Jaxon Dart to heavily target his best receiving weapon in his first NFL start under center. At near 2/1 odds, Nabers is a wise investment to add to his touchdown total (2) on Sunday afternoon. WR Matthew Golden +240 Fulltime Projection: 0.75 (75%) Golden, who witnessed his strongest volume in Week 3 (71% snap count, 2nd-most targets, 4) led to his best production this season with 9.2 PPR fantasy points. With Jayden Reed (OUT), and Tucker Kraft (elbow/knee) banged up expect Jordan Love to heavily target his emerging rookie talent against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers – six touchdowns over the last two weeks. Week 1-3 Performance WK 1🏈 ✅Brian Thomas Jr (+130) ✅C. Hubbard (+100) ✅J.K. Dobbins (+165) ✅Z. Charbonnet (+370) ✅I. Teslaa (+450) WK 1: 5-6 (+6.15 units) WK 2🏈 ✅T. Higgins (+130) ✅K. Boutte (+380) ✅N. Collins (+120) WK 2: 3-4 (+2.10 units) WK 3🏈 ✅M. Evans (+120) ✅N. Collins (+125) ✅JSN (+130) ✅R. Odunze (+155) WK 3: 4-2 (+2.10 units) 🔥YTD: 16-21 (+14.7 UNITS)📈
Week 4 Fantasy Football Team & Player Projections
FullTime Fantasy Sports is proud to offer you projections & rankings brought to you by the Fantasy Football “Rainman” Shawn Childs!
NFL Week 4: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Tight Ends
NFL Week 4 Starts and Sits – Tight End Week 4 is a pivotal week for fantasy lineups with injuries mounting. Find the best tight end starts and sits to stay ahead! Starts Jake Ferguson Jake Ferguson has become Dak Prescott’s most trusted option, hauling in 13 catches last week—second only to Jason Witten in franchise history for a tight end. The Packers have struggled to defend the position, making Ferguson a top play again. Hunter Henry Hunter Henry has shown a full fantasy range, from a 1.9-point dud to a 29-point explosion last week. He looks locked in as Drake Maye’s go-to target, and the Panthers have given up the most yards to tight ends this season. Henry is firmly in TE1 territory. Sits David Njoku David Njoku is ceding production to Harold Fannin Jr. and remains a low-priority target in Cleveland’s passing game. With the Browns projected for just 18 points, Njoku is nothing more than a low-end TE2. Zach Ertz Zach Ertz continues to be a floor-only option, and Atlanta has shut down tight ends this season, allowing just 48 yards without a score. In a matchup this tough, Ertz’s limited ceiling makes him an easy fade. Check out the other Week 4 Start em Sit em: QB Start em Sit em RB Start em Sit em WR Start em Sit em
NFL Week 4: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers
Week 4 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers Week 4 lineup decisions are crucial with injuries impacting rosters. Discover the best wide receiver starts and sits for this week! Start ‘Em Deebo Samuel Deebo Samuel should step into a bigger role with Terry McLaurin unlikely to play. Even if Marcus Mariota is under center, Samuel can exploit an Atlanta defense missing A.J. Terrell. With two games over 17 PPR points already, he’s a strong WR2. Quentin Johnston Quentin Johnston ranks as WR8 on the season and is fresh off his best game yet with 10 targets, 6 catches, and 89 yards despite coverage from Patrick Surtain II. Now he gets the Giants, who have allowed five receivers to top 15 PPR points. Johnston is an every-week starter with top-12 potential. Sit ‘Em Tee Higgins Tee Higgins has been nearly invisible outside of one long touchdown, producing only 62 yards otherwise. With Jake Browning at quarterback and Denver allowing just one big WR performance all season, Higgins is better left on the bench unless you’re desperate in a three-WR format. Travis Hunter Travis Hunter’s usage has dropped every week, and he’s been held under 35 yards in all three games. Facing a San Francisco defense that rarely allows receiver production, Hunter is unplayable until his role stabilizes. Check out the other Week 4 Start em Sit em: QB Start em Sit em RB Start em Sit em TE Start em Sit em
NFL Week 4 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks
Week 4 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks Week 4 is here, and fantasy managers need to navigate injuries and bye weeks. Get the top quarterback start ’em and sit ’em to optimize your lineup! Start ‘Em Justin Fields Justin Fields has been up and down this season, but if he clears concussion protocol and returns against Miami, he’s a must-start. Every Jets quarterback has topped 40 rushing yards this year, and the Dolphins have already surrendered a league-high three rushing touchdowns to QBs while struggling to create pressure. They’ve also allowed the fifth-most passing scores and the highest passer rating. Every quarterback to face Miami has finished top five for the week, giving Fields massive upside if active. Drake Maye Drake Maye has delivered back-to-back strong fantasy outings, scoring over 23 points in each of his last two games. He’s added 76 rushing yards and a touchdown in that stretch, making him more dangerous with his legs. Carolina has kept quarterbacks under 16.2 points through three weeks, but Maye has the tools to be the first to break 20 against them. He belongs in all lineups. Sit ‘Em Dak Prescott Dak Prescott is a tough sell this week against Green Bay. He’s missing CeeDee Lamb and key linemen, and the Packers rank third-best in limiting quarterback fantasy points. Prescott has been held under 15 points in two of three games and doesn’t belong in lineups, even in Superflex. Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence remains turnover-prone and hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points this season. Despite Tennessee being a beatable defense, his struggles stretch back to last year, making him impossible to trust until he proves otherwise. Check out the other Week 4 Start ’em Sit ’em: RB Start em Sit em WR Start em Sit em TE Start em Sit em
Thursday Night Football Respected Money Breakdown: Seahawks vs Cardinals
Thursday Night Football Respected Money Breakdown: Seahawks vs Cardinals Week 4 of the 2025 season kicks off on Thursday Night with an NFC West showdown between the Seahawks (2-1) and Cardinals (2-1). Get expert prop picks and analysis. TOP PLAYS WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Anytime Touchdown (+155) Following the trade of DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh in the offseason, JSN has emerged as the clear focal point of the Seahawks offense. The elite playmaker opened the 2025 season as a must-start fantasy football weapon. Smith-Njigba has posted 18 catches for 236 yards and 3 touchdowns in four career games against the Cardinals. In the first three games this season, Arizona has allowed opposing WR1’s to post immense production to the tune of: Chris Olave (7/54), Tetairoa McMillan (6/100) and Ricky Pearsall (8/117). Let’s invest in JSN, who leads all wideouts in target share (42.6%), fourth in air yards (368) – to find paydirt for the second consecutive week. QB Sam Darnold – Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+156) After a rocky Seahawks debut, Darnold has bounced back throwing multiple touchdown passes in consecutive wins over the Steelers and Saints. At healthy plus-odds, fantasy managers should not shy away from using the veteran signal-caller in lineups despite the short week. Dating back to last season with the Vikings, Darnold has surpassed this projection in 14 of his last 20 games. Hitting at a 70% clip, combined with a banged up Zach Charbonnet (foot), expect the ‘Hawks to air it out against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered the second-most passing yards (826) and four passing touchdowns through three games. MOONSHOT PLAY WR Tory Horton – Anytime Touchdown (+390) – Half Unit The former Colorado State standout was superb, scoring two touchdowns (one via special teams) in the club’s Week 3 victory over the Saints. With Cooper Kupp only receiving exactly three targets in two of his first three games with Seattle, the value is simply too enticing to pass on Horton at moonshot odds. With three touchdowns in his last two games, the emerging rookie could be ready to wrestle the team’s WR2 role away from Kupp. In a correlated play with Darnold to throw multiple scores, we will target a player who is underpriced according to my projections. Thus far, Vegas vs FullTime projections is off to a red-hot start: ✅Week 1: 5-6 (+6.15 UNITS)📈 ✅Week 2: 7-10 (+7.25 UNITS)📈 ✅Week 3: 4-1 (+4.3 UNITS)📈 🔥Overall YTD: 16-17 (+17.7 UNITS)📈
NFL Week 4: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Running backs
Week 4 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Running Back Week 4 brings critical lineup decisions with injuries mounting. Check out the best running back starts and sits for your fantasy team! Start ‘Em Breece Hall Breece Hall has been inconsistent, failing to hit double-digit points in two of three games. But Miami has been generous to running backs, giving up top-20 fantasy days to both Rhamondre Stevenson and James Cook. Hall gashed the Dolphins for 18 points last season and should be treated as a solid RB2 here. J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins has controlled Denver’s backfield with a 63% rush share and short-yardage work while producing in every game. He ranks top 10 in rushing yards, has scored in all three contests, and sits 13th among running backs in PPR. Facing a Bengals defense that has already given up five rushing touchdowns, Dobbins is set up for another productive day. Sits Tony Pollard Tony Pollard has elite usage, but efficiency is lacking. Poor offensive line play and a stagnant offense have limited his production, and Houston’s defense has been solid against the run. With Tennessee projected for the lowest team total of the week, Pollard is a volume-dependent flex at best. D’Andre Swift D’Andre Swift is losing snaps to Kyle Monangai and now faces a Raiders defense that’s been stingy on the ground. With just 33 rushing yards on 13 carries last week, Swift is difficult to trust as more than a fringe flex. Check out the other Week 4 Start em Sit em: QB Start em Sit em WR Start em Sit em TE Start em Sit em
FullTime Fantasy: Week 3 Injury Report and Waiver Radar
FullTime Fantasy: Week 3 Injury Report and Waiver Radar Here’s your concise look from FullTime Fantasy at the biggest Week 3 injury developments and the best ways to attack the wire ahead of Week 4. Written by Duke Deming Week 3 Injury Report James Conner (RB – ARI) Left on a cart in the third quarter vs. SF with a nasty-looking ankle injury the broadcast chose not to replay. It has been confirmed as a season-ending issue that will require surgery. Trey Benson took over as the primary back (6 carries, 1 target) ahead of Emari Demercado (2 carries, 1 target). Najee Harris (RB – LAC) Exited the win over DEN with an Achilles injury; HC Jim Harbaugh confirmed the season-ending diagnosis postgame. Omarion Hampton profiles as the rest-of-season workhorse after posting 19-70-1 on the ground and 6-57-0 receiving. CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) Rolled his left ankle early vs. CHI. Lamb tried to return during the game but immediately returned to the sideline. Lamb is expected to miss at least two games with the high ankle sprain. Mike Evans (WR – TB) Suffered a second-half hamstring injury vs. NYJ and was quickly ruled out. He’s battled hamstrings repeatedly (seven documented instances, including three missed games last year). Evans is expected to miss multiple games. Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) Picked up a quad injury after halftime vs. LV and did not return. With Washington cruising, precaution likely factored in. His status is uncertain for Week 4. Dyami Brown (WR – JAX) Left the game vs. HOU with a shoulder issue. His status is uncertain, and look for an update later in the week. Alec Pierce (WR – IND) Concussed in the third quarter vs. TEN—his third documented concussion. We’ll track him through the protocol. Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) Exited in the first half vs. DAL with a hip injury and didn’t return. He is currently expected to play in Week 4. Michael Mayer (TE – LV) Sustained a first documented concussion in the opening half vs. WSH. His status for Week 4 is uncertain, and we’ll monitor his status during the week. Waiver Wire Radar Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG) – Just named the starter and by all accounts has out-practiced both of the veteran QBs on the roster in Wilson and Winston. His ceiling for potential is through the roof. Geno Smith (QB – LV) – Bounced back from a rough Week 2 with 289 yards and three scores vs. WSH. His Week 4 matchup is against a vulnerable Bears defense that is still missing CB Jaylon Johnson. Ollie Gordon (RB – MIA) – The rookie’s role grew on TNF (9-38-1), which HC Mike McDaniel said was by design. He may keep the goal-line gig and is the clear Achane handcuff. Jaylen Wright was active but didn’t log an offensive snap. Woody Marks (RB – HOU) – Marks had six carries compared to Nick Chubb’s nine, with a nearly even snap count (30 to 33). Posted 4.5 YPC vs. JAX and has looked like Houston’s most explosive back the past two weeks. Continue to monitor if his workload continues to increase in Houston offense. Luther Burden (WR – CHI) – Chicago coaches wanted more involvement and Burden delivered with a 65-yard flea-flicker TD plus a 29-yard snag (3-101-1). Keep an eye on his role in the Bears’ offense. Tre Tucker (WR – LV) – Breakout week with 8-145-3 eruption. Don’t ignore the quiet first two weeks (5-66-1 total) and last year’s inefficiency, but he’s a full-time player with legit speed and draws CHI next. Christian Kirk (WR – HOU) – Just 3-25-0 in his 2025 debut, but his 8 targets ranked second to Nico Collins. Kirk is a viable depth option as byes begin if Houston’s passing game steadies. Hunter Henry (TE – NE) – Erupted for 8-90-2 on 11 targets vs. PIT after a 4-66-0 opener (Week 2 was the dud). Gets a friendly Panthers matchup and should land inside top-12 TE streams. Matt Stafford (QB – LA) – Held to 196-2 by PHI but continues to sling it efficiently (7.8 YPA, 5:2 TD:INT through three). A home date with IND keeps him as an option for a spot start in Week 4. Chris Rodriguez (RB – WAS) – Team-high 11 carries (five in the 4th during a blowout), but notably handled Washington’s first four rushes (25 yards). Jacory Croskey-Merritt likely leads most weeks, but look for Rodriguez to compete for carries. Make sure to check out our other Week 4 Features like the Week 3 RB Snaps Report & Week 3 Target Share Leaders
Week 3 Targets & Target Share by Team | Scott Atkins
Scott Atkins Breaks Down Week 3 Targets & Target Share by Team Written by Scott Atkins, veteran high-stakes fantasy analyst and contributor to FullTime Fantasy. Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season is in the books, and the targets and Target Share % reveal who’s receiving the looks by the Quarterback, regardless if they turn it into points or not. This breakdown covers all 32 teams across eight divisions, plus the top 10 leaders, to give you a fantasy edge for Week 4. This is a Weekly Member-Only Feature. Use this data to spot breakout candidates and waiver wire targets as the season heats up. Team-by-Team Target Breakdowns AFC East Target & Target Share % AFC North Target & Target Share % AFC South Target & Target Share % AFC West Target & Target Share % NFC East Target & Target Share % NFC North Target & Target Share % NFC South Target & Target Share % NFC West Target & Target Share % Top 10 Target Leaders Top 10 Target Share % Leaders