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Category: DFS – PGA

PGA DFS: CareerBuilder Challenge DK Report

Daily and weekly fantasy sports have become all the rage. Battling it out over an entire season is fun, but sites like DraftKings offer a quicker payoff and big payouts for winners! Not only do they offer daily action in the four major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) as well as college basketball and football but also the PGA Tour. Your DraftKings lineup is made up of six golfers you select from within the $50,000 salary cap. Each week DraftKings offers a wide selection of games to enter at a variety of price points. You can even get a feel for the game in a freeroll contest. Before you put your cash on the line, I’ll offer my Top Values and Steals in this space every week, specifically geared to help build a winning DraftKings squad. I’ll also give you my Overpriced golfers to avoid and a couple of “Vegas Says…” tips to help you find those players for GPPs. Tournament Stop What’s tricky about this event is that there isn’t a 36-hole cut… it’s a 54-hole cut. The event is a giant pro-am which uses three golf courses (TPC Stadium Course, Nicklaus Course, and La Quinta), so players see each course once, before a final round cut shrinks the field to a number that will all play the final round on the Stadium Course. For our purposes, we should focus research on the Stadium Course for that reason, but honestly, it’s tough to gauge different players playing different courses on different days. Just pick good players! The saving grace is that these courses all have similar attributes: they’re short, par-72 tracks that will lead to low scores. The Stadium Course is the toughest of the three, so you’ll see the lowest scores shot on the Nicklaus Course and at La Quinta. There’s heavy bunkering this week, and approach shots will be at a premium. The overseeded rough on the Stadium Course makes iron shots very difficult, and Pete Dye’s notorious collection areas around the green will challenge players. Accuracy, ball-striking, and par-5 scoring are my keys this week. The past three winners of this event are similar players: Hudson Swafford, Jason Dufner, and Bill Haas. Swafford can rip it off-the-tee, but he’s known for his ball-striking prowess. Dufner and Haas are both deadly iron and wedge players, and all three players are notoriously bad putters. That reinforces my belief that accurate ball-striking is at a premium above putting. Two names come to mind, who I’ll highlight later.   Recent Tournament History This rotation of courses has only been used the past few years, so these are the most important data points we have. Here are the leaderboards from the past three installments of the CareerBuilder Challenge: Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA and European Tours. Because this is the start of a new season, many of the world’s best haven’t played since the Tour Championship. Tread lightly. Here are the leaderboards from the past three events: the RSM Classic, the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and last week’s Sony Open. Statistical Report We still have a small sample size for stats this season, especially with the influx of web.com Tour players. Tread lightly when it comes to interpreting these metrics, especially on a week where players are seeing three different courses. Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): Ball-striking, especially with irons, is going to be a major key for players this week. All three tracks are short, par-72 venues, with the Stadium Course being a Pete Dye design. Dye is known for making players think, and emphasizing accuracy over distance. The players are going to need to back a bundle of birdies this week. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Sung Kang, Chez Reavie, John Peterson, Kevin Na, Zach Johnson, and J.J. Spaun. Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee (SG:OTT): Every week, off-the-tee play is a main target. Guys who can hit it long and straight have a huge advantage over the rest of the field. It makes courses shorter, and allows them to hit approach shots from shorter distances, setting up birdies. Even on shorter courses like we’ll see this week, hitting the ball long and straight will lead to success. The best off-the-tee players are Kevin Chappell, Jon Rahm, Sangmoon Bae, Bud Cauley, Luke List, and Kevin Streelman. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This event should lend itself to low scores, with some short par-4s and reachable par-5s. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jon Rahm John Peterson, Brian Harman, Patton Kizzire, Jason Dufner, J.J. Spaun, Wesley Bryan, Bud Cauley, and Kevin Kisner. Par-5 Scoring (P5): All three tracks this week are par-72s, which means par-5 scoring will be a major differentiator. Players who can attack these holes and rack up birdies and eagles will be leading throughout the week. This could mean bombers, or it could mean elite wedge players. Some of the best par-5 scorers in this field are Kevin Na, Jon Rahm, Brian Harman, Nick Watney, Bill Haas, Harold Varner, and J.J. Spaun. Studs *In order of my rankings Jon Rahm ($11,800) – I’m going to continue to write-up the top ranked player in the field if I think he’s going to win, and that’s what I expect from Rahm this week. I also think he’ll go lower-owned than expected, with people choosing balanced teams beginning with Webb Simpson, Jason Dufner, and Kevin Kisner. Rahm finished a mediocre 34th here last season, but he’s a dramatically improved player these days. He won the DP World Tour Championship in Europe and then followed up with a runner-up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, so his form is strong. Webb Simpson ($9,700) – Webb impressed me a lot last week with a top-5 finish, after catching fire on

PGA Sony Open — Dr Roto’s Visionaries

Dr. Roto’s Visionary PGA DFS Picks for the Sony Open Jordan Spieth—if I had only one lineup to make, he would be in it. Justin Thomas—Won here last year, but if I only can choose expensive player, I will choose Spieth. Marc Leishman—Solid course history (CH) and in best form of his career. Brian Harman—My under the radar pick to win this week. Kevin Kisner—Has sparkled here the last two years. Webb Simpson—His putting has improved dramatically in the last six months—he has always been one of the best ball strikers on tour. Russell Henley—Some recency bias after last week’s disappointment so you might get him at less ownership. Tony Finau—Great scorer on DK. Charles Howell III—Course horse. Cameron Smith—You might not know him just yet, but by the end of the season you will be using him regularly in your lineups. Jamie Lovemark—I don’t expect him to win, but a top ten result is more than possible. Chez Reavie—I am fading him. His 8 th last year was a result of a 61 on the final day. That should not happen again. I will use him at Riviera for sure. Brian Gay—Think he flies at lower ownership due to Gary Woodland’s CH and the fact that they are so close in price.Austin Cook—This kid is going to be a great player someday soon and his ownership should be low. Jason Dufner—I am worried that at 7300 he will be too highly owned. Hudson Swafford—Always seems to get out to a lead and then struggles over the weekend. A Cut maker. Fabian Gomez—Won this tournament in 2016. No one will own him. If I go with a stars and scrubs lineup, he could make one or two teams. Stewart Cink—Won’t put up big numbers but should make the cut and he’s dirt cheap. Kyle Stanley—Has played well here in the past and could be a good scrub to throw into a stars and scrubs lineup at 7300. Dominic Bozzelli—If you are looking for a crazy flyer to save money. Ryan Armour—See Dominic Bozzelli.

PGA DFS: Safeway Open (FanDuel Breakdown)

FanDuel recently updated their PGA DFS offering, so players are trying to figure out the new format and optimize their lineups accordingly. They’ve taken away their split rosters and made their PGA product very similar to DraftKings’ product. The main difference is that you’ll still have eight golfers to choose, and each player will accrue points for all four tournament rounds. FanDuel Golf Scoring System Eagle = 7 points Birdie = 3.1 points Par = 0.5 point Bogey = -1 point Double bogey (or worse) = -3 points Streak bonus = 0.6 points per hole under par Bounce back (birdie or better after making bogey or worse) = 0.3 points 5+ Birdies in a round = 4 points Bogey-free round = 5 points 1st place = 20 points 2nd-5th place = 12 points 6th-10th place = 8 points 11th-25th place = 5 points Tournament Stop This week, players face the Silverado CC’s North Course. The layout is a 7,203-yard par-72 featuring four par 3s and four par 5s. As expected, scoring on the par-5s is going to be important, but not as important as the par-4s. The course features tree-lined fairways and a decent number of doglegs, so accuracy off-the-tee should be important. What I love about this track is that any player can contend, not just the bombers. The greens are extremely undulated, but won’t be running too quickly. If you take a look at some of the quotes from players over the years, these points are reflected. As far as comparable courses, I would look towards Riviera CC and TPC Four Seasons, because we’ve seen a lot of players with great track records on both of those venues. Additionally, I’m going to favor some California-based players, because these tricky Poa Annua greens favor those who have a ton of experience putting on them. Recent Tournament History Silverado has only been the host of this event since 2014, so we only have the past three years of course history to draw upon. Overall, the mold of a player who has done well here has been shorter, more accurate players. Here are the leaderboards from the past three installments of the Safeway Open:   Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA and European Tours. Because this is the start of a new season and we have an influx of rookies, I’m skipping current form reviews. Most of these players have had several weeks off, and many of the top players are still enjoying time off. I’ll be focusing more heavily on course history and pedigree this week. Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): Ball-striking, especially with irons, is going to be a major key for players this week at Silverado. These greens are difficult and undulating, so giving themselves good birdie opportunities while avoiding three-putts will separate players from the rest of the field. There are quadrants of each green that players are going to have to hit, and that means strokes-gained approach is critical. This lends itself to ball-strikers. Scrambling will also be a challenge, so players hitting the most greens will be able to save pars (and make birdies) at a high rate. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Robert Garrigus, Kevin Na, Ben Martin, Patton Kizzire, Billy Hurley, Derek Fathauer, Martin Flores, Harold Varner, Chad Campbell, and Rory Sabbatini. Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee (SG:OTT): Every week, off-the-tee play is my main target. Guys who can hit it long and straight have a huge advantage over the rest of the field. It makes courses shorter and allows them to hit approach shots from shorter distances, setting up birdies. One thing that I’ve found is that form is key for these players. The best off-the-tee players are Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak, Luke List, Keegan Bradley, Robert Garrigus, Matt Every, Grayson Murray, Brendan Steele, Rory Sabbatini, and Brandon Hagy. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. There’s going to be plenty of bogeys this week, so we need birdies to offset the damages. Silverado typically lends itself to low scores, with some short par-4s and reachable par-5s. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Matt Every, Robert Garrigus, Rory Sabbatini, Smylie Kaufman, Brandon Hagy, Seamus Power, Ryan Armour, Sam Saunders, Grayson Murray, and Luke List. Par-5 Scoring (P5): Silverado is a par-72, which means players will get four par-5s to attack. Although they will play easy for every player in the field, our typical par-5 scorers are huge targets for me this week. Birdies and eagles will be abundant this week, and I think the player who leads in par-5 scoring will hoist the trophy this weekend. Here are the top-10 in recent par-5 scoring average: Smylie Kaufman, Vaughn Taylor, Ryan Armour, Luke List, Tony Finau, Martin Flores, KJ Choi, Brandon Hagy, Grayson Murray, and Kevin Tway. Studs *In order of my rankings Tony Finau ($9,500) – It’s strange to see Finau as the highest priced player in the field, but he deserves that title this week. Finau has made all three cuts at Silverado, including a 12th place finish in his debut in 2014. On paper, he checks the statistical boxes I’m targeting this week, especially par-5 scoring average. He’s been knocking on the door of his second career win, and I think he’ll get there in this Fall Swing. Finau finished 7th at the BMW Championship and 7th at the Tour Championship, his last two starts in the FedEx Cup playoffs. Ryan Moore ($8,800) – Since a shoulder injury this summer, Moore has quietly bounced his way back into form. He made a run in the FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing 20th at the BMW Championship and narrowly missing out on East Lake. Moore in a West Coast specialist, and we’ve seen him have success on poa annua greens and