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Category: DFS – PGA

Dr. Roto’s Visionary PGA Picks – CareerBuilder Challenge

Jon Rahm

Dr. Roto’s Visionary PGA Picks – CareerBuilder Challenge There is a three-course rotation at the CareerBuilder Challenge, so charting for CH is virtually impossible to do this week. It’s also a 54-hole cut, which means that there will be way more people making it further into the tournament, so treat it more like a no-cut tournament and look for players who score big over cut-makers when you set your lineups.   Tier One Players (10K and up): Jon Rahm (11800)—Worth every penny as he is the class of the event by far. Brian Harman (11500)—Had a T4 last week and looks to be locked in.   Tier Two (8K-10K): Webb Simpson (9700)—His improved putting stroke puts him squarely in the mix this week. Brendan Steele (8900)—Blue Horseshoe loves Brendan Steele. Steele also has two top-tens here in the last three years. Chez Reavie (8800)—Always plays well in the tourneys out West. Austin Cook (8700)—A talented young player who could be top ten this week. Bud Cauley (8400)—This Bud’s for you at this price. Great putter and usually lower owned. Chris Kirk (8100)—Played well here last year was top ten at the Sony.   Tier Three (7K-8K): J.J. Spaun (7900)—He played very well at the beginning of last year and I think that can happen again this season. David Lingmerth (7800)—Not for the faint of heart as he is usually really good or really bad. He seems to like playing here though. Adam Hadwin (7600)—He shot a 59 at La Quinta last year. Superb putter. Jhonattan Vegas (7500)—He’s a much better player than he was two years ago, plus how can you not like a guy named Johnny Vegas? Lucas Glover (7500)—Normally lower owned and could be there on Sunday. Brian Stuard (7500)—Hasn’t played well here, but had a T4 last week which means his form is solid. Ryan Armour (7400)—Playing well recently and like his price to help me afford Rahm, etc. Scott Piercy (7400)—He usually kills me when I use him, but I like him in this spot. Has made the cut here the last two times he has played.   Under 7K: Dominic Bozzelli (6800)—His price will start going up soon; this might be one of the last chances to get him under 7K. Harold Varner III (6800)—Played very well for the first two rounds last year before just missing the cut. Aaron Wise (6800)—Hurt me last week as a flyer, but willing to give him another shot. Seamus Power (6700)—Had a T21 here last year and could help out at a low price.

PGA DFS: CareerBuilder Challenge FD Report

FanDuel recently updated their PGA DFS offering, so players are trying to figure out the new format and optimize their lineups accordingly. Basically, they’ve taken away their eight-man rosters, and made their PGA product very similar to DraftKings’ product. The main difference is that you’ll have to adjust to the scoring system and new pricing. FanDuel Golf Scoring System: Eagle = 7 points Birdie = 3.1 points Par = 0.5 point Bogey = -1 point Double bogey (or worse) = -3 points Streak bonus = 0.6 points per hole under par Bounce back (birdie or better after making bogey or worse) = 0.3 points 5+ Birdies in a round = 4 points Bogey-free round = 5 points. 1st place = 20 points 2nd-5th place = 12 points 6th-10th place = 8 points 11th-25th place = 5 points Tournament Stop What’s tricky about this event is that there isn’t a 36-hole cut… it’s a 54-hole cut. The event is a giant pro-am which uses three golf courses (TPC Stadium Course, Nicklaus Course, and La Quinta), so players see each course once, before a final round cut shrinks the field to a number that will all play the final round on the Stadium Course. For our purposes, we should focus research on the Stadium Course for that reason, but honestly, it’s tough to gauge different players playing different courses on different days. Just pick good players! The saving grace is that these courses all have similar attributes: they’re short, par-72 tracks that will lead to low scores. The Stadium Course is the toughest of the three, so you’ll see the lowest scores shot on the Nicklaus Course and at La Quinta. There’s heavy bunkering this week, and approach shots will be at a premium. The overseeded rough on the Stadium Course makes iron shots very difficult, and Pete Dye’s notorious collection areas around the green will challenge players. Accuracy, ball-striking, and par-5 scoring are my keys this week. The past three winners of this event are similar players: Hudson Swafford, Jason Dufner, and Bill Haas. Swafford can rip it off-the-tee, but he’s known for his ball-striking prowess. Dufner and Haas are both deadly iron and wedge players, and all three players are notoriously bad putters. That reinforces my belief that accurate ball-striking is at a premium above putting. Two names come to mind, who I’ll highlight later. Recent Tournament History This rotation of courses has only been used the past few years, so these are the most important data points we have. Here are the leaderboards from the past three installments of the CareerBuilder Challenge: Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA and European Tours. Because this is the start of a new season, many of the world’s best haven’t played since the Tour Championship. Tread lightly. Here are the leaderboards from the past three events: the RSM Classic, the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and last week’s Sony Open.   Statistical Report We still have a small sample size for stats this season, especially with the influx of web.com Tour players. Tread lightly when it comes to interpreting these metrics, especially on a week where players are seeing three different courses. Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): Ball-striking, especially with irons, is going to be a major key for players this week. All three tracks are short, par-72 venues, with the Stadium Course being a Pete Dye design. Dye is known for making players think, and emphasizing accuracy over distance. The players are going to need to back a bundle of birdies this week. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Sung Kang, Chez Reavie, John Peterson, Kevin Na, Zach Johnson, and J.J. Spaun. Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee (SG:OTT): Every week, off-the-tee play is a main target. Guys who can hit it long and straight have a huge advantage over the rest of the field. It makes courses shorter, and allows them to hit approach shots from shorter distances, setting up birdies. Even on shorter courses like we’ll see this week, hitting the ball long and straight will lead to success. The best off-the-tee players are Kevin Chappell, Jon Rahm, Sangmoon Bae, Bud Cauley, Luke List, and Kevin Streelman. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This event should lend itself to low scores, with some short par-4s and reachable par-5s. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jon Rahm John Peterson, Brian Harman, Patton Kizzire, Jason Dufner, J.J. Spaun, Wesley Bryan, Bud Cauley, and Kevin Kisner. Par-5 Scoring (P5): All three tracks this week are par-72s, which means par-5 scoring will be a major differentiator. Players who can attack these holes and rack up birdies and eagles will be leading throughout the week. This could mean bombers, or it could mean elite wedge players. Some of the best par-5 scorers in this field are Kevin Na, Jon Rahm, Brian Harman, Nick Watney, Bill Haas, Harold Varner, and J.J. Spaun. Studs *In order of my rankings Jon Rahm ($12,500) – I’m going to continue to write-up the top ranked player in the field if I think he’s going to win, and that’s what I expect from Rahm this week. I also think he’ll go lower-owned than expected, with people choosing balanced teams beginning with Webb Simpson, Jason Dufner, and Kevin Kisner. Rahm finished a mediocre 34th here last season, but he’s a dramatically improved player these days. He won the DP World Tour Championship in Europe and then followed up with a runner-up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, so his form is strong. Webb Simpson ($11,100) – Webb impressed me a lot last week with a top-5 finish, after catching fire on the weekend. Surprisingly, Simpson gained the majority of his strokes on the green, which isn’t usually