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Category: DFS – PGA

US OPEN PGA DFS – Visionary Picks

Dr. Roto’s Visionary U.S. Open Cheat Sheet It’s time for another lucky person to become a millionaire in DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. If you are the one person to have the highest score out of $205K teams, you will become my rich friend! That said, you have a better chance of being hit by lightning than you do to win the million bucks. I am not suggesting you don’t play, as much as I am suggesting that you don’t go spending your life savings in trying to become a millionaire.     THE COURSE Shinnecock Hills is a VERY hard and demanding course. My best guess is that about 20 golfers will be under par for the entire tournament. So, if you don’t have players who can be T20 or better, you probably are not going to win.   THE FIELD Dustin Johnson—No better player when he is playing at his best Rory McIlroy—The sharps in Vegas are fading him Justin Thomas—I will have about 20% exposure to him Jordan Spieth—His current form is awful, but do you really think he has a bad US Open? Jason Day—Love him and hope that he goes a bit under the radar Rickie Fowler—Just got engaged (Fade??) but loves the links style courses Justin Rose—Top current form on tour and I will own a lot of shares Jon Rahm—Will use sparingly Tiger Woods—If he can control his driver he will be playing late on Sunday Brooks Koepka—Wish there were more par 5’s on this course for him Hideki Matsuyama—Might be overlooked and could contend Henrik Stenson—Don’t trust him here. Prefer him in Europe. Sergio Garcia—Will fade Phil Mickelson—Will be under exposed, but he could surprise Patrick Reed—Masters winner could be a T10 here Branden Grace—Always seems to play well on links style courses     Others Who I Like a Lot to be in the Top 25: Tommy Fleetwood Paul Casey Patrick Cantlay Matt Kuchar Tony Finau Keegan Bradley Brandt Snedeker Jimmy Walker Louie Oosthuizen Marc Leishman Francisco Molinari Ian Poulter     Cheap Guys to fill out your rosters if you use stars and scrubs: E. Grillo Trey Mullinax S. Sharma L. Herbert S. Im R. Fox D. Burmeister   Good luck and I hope that a member of the Scout Army becomes my rich friend!      

Dr. Roto Podcast – Wednesday, June 6

Prior to next week’s US Open, Dr. Roto hooks you up with his Visionary PGA DFS Podcast for this week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind in Memphis!

Fort Worth Invitational – DraftKings PGA DFS

Brooks Koepka

Daily and weekly fantasy sports have become all the rage. Battling it out over an entire season is fun, but sites like DraftKings offer a quicker payoff and big payouts for winners! Not only do they offer daily action in the four major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) as well as college basketball and football but also the PGA Tour. Your DraftKings lineup is made up of six golfers you select from within the $50,000 salary cap. Each week DraftKings offers a wide selection of games to enter at a variety of price points. You can even get a feel for the game in a freeroll contest. Before you put your cash on the line, I’ll offer my Top Values and Steals in this space every week, specifically geared to help build a winning DraftKings squad. I’ll also give you my Overpriced golfers to avoid and a couple of “Vegas Says…” tips to help you find those players for GPPs. Tournament Stop Let’s move on to the Fort Worth Invitational, which I’ll just call Colonial. Kevin Kisner is our defending champion, holding off Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm a year ago. The venue is a narrow par-70 course which features many doglegs, overhanging trees, and other characteristics that will place a premium on ball placement and accuracy. Although it measures over 7,200 yards on the scorecard, the firm and windy conditions usually render this a ball-striker’s course. Most of the players in the field will be able to hit drives near 300 yards if the rain stays away. Accurate approach shots and elite scrambling should get the job done this week, and I’ll be targeting some of the usual suspects. Colonial features bentgrass greens, which means we should see plenty of putts falling this week. Guys are usually able to putt the lights out on pure, bentgrass greens. For course comparison, look at Valspar and RBC Heritage leaderboards, or just look at the same names that have popped up here over the past few seasons. Think more Zach Johnson, and less Dustin Johnson. I’m not huge into comparing courses, but you can look at the Valspar Championship and the RBC Heritage leaderboards to get an idea of what to expect this week. Recent Tournament History Colonial has been the longtime host of this event, so we have plenty of reliable data to look back upon. Here are the leaderboards from the last three installments of the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial:     Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the Wells Fargo Championship, the Players Championship, and last week’s Byron Nelson. Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): There’s no denying that Colonial lends itself to ball-striking, as precise iron play into the green is a major factor. If a player is off by even a yard or two, they’ll face tough rough and bunkers, leading to bogeys. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Jordan Spieth, J.J. Spaun, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Stewart Cink, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, and Webb Simpson. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are fairly small at Colonial, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Patrick Cantlay, Jonathan Byrd, Alex Cejka, Webb Simpson, Wesley Bryan, Jimmy Walker, Jim Furyk, Ben Crane, Louis Oosthuizen, and Ollie Schniederjans. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Aaron Wise, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Russell Henley, Jimmy Walker, Grayson Murray, and Chesson Hadley. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green on Par-4s (SGT2G:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained tee-to-green on par-4s. Colonial is a par-70, so there’s added emphasis on the par-4s. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Patrick Cantlay, Pat Perez, Kevin Streelman, J.J. Spaun, Adam Scott, Grayson Murray, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Rickie Fowler, and Sean O’Hair. Studs *In order of my rankings Jordan Spieth ($11,700) – Back to the well! I think most DFS players will go balanced this week, or take savings to start their teams with Rickie Fowler or Webb Simpson. That means that Spieth shouldn’t be over 25% owned, which is silly in a field like this. He loves Colonial, posting a win in 2016 and a runner-up last season. Spieth putts best on bentgrass greens, and hopefully the familiar surfaces will help him channel his success of the past. Even during these recent struggles, he continues to be one of the best tee-to-green players. Don’t give up yet. Jon Rahm ($11,000) – Rahm dazzled with a runner-up finish here last year, but there’s pause for concern. He chose to blast drivers around Colonial which is usually a bad plan, but he was dialed in with his wedges. This season, he’s struggled with irons and wedges, so I expect some regression. He had another bad weekend at TPC Sawgrass, and clearly needs to work on dialing back his game on these less-than-driver courses. But, Rahm has proven he’s a world-class player, so there wouldn’t be anyone surprised to see him winning on Sunday. Justin Rose ($10,600) – It’s strange to see Rose here, and it’s also strange to see him skipping the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Rose is one of Europe’s biggest stars, so it’s a gut-punch for them not to have him. However, Colonial fits his game well and he’s been trending towards a win all season.

Fort Worth Invitational – FanDuel PGA DFS

FanDuel recently updated their PGA DFS offering, so players are trying to figure out the new format and optimize their lineups accordingly. Basically, they’ve taken away their eight-man rosters, and made their PGA product very similar to DraftKings’ product. The main difference is that you’ll have to adjust to the scoring system and new pricing. FanDuel Golf Scoring System: Eagle = 7 points Birdie = 3.1 points Par = 0.5 point Bogey = -1 point Double bogey (or worse) = -3 points Streak bonus = 0.6 points per hole under par Bounce back (birdie or better after making bogey or worse) = 0.3 points 5+ Birdies in a round = 4 points Bogey-free round = 5 points. 1st place = 20 points 2nd-5th place = 12 points 6th-10th place = 8 points 11th-25th place = 5 points Tournament Stop Let’s move on to the Fort Worth Invitational, which I’ll just call Colonial. Kevin Kisner is our defending champion, holding off Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm a year ago. The venue is a narrow par-70 course which features many doglegs, overhanging trees, and other characteristics that will place a premium on ball placement and accuracy. Although it measures over 7,200 yards on the scorecard, the firm and windy conditions usually render this a ball-striker’s course. Most of the players in the field will be able to hit drives near 300 yards if the rain stays away. Accurate approach shots and elite scrambling should get the job done this week, and I’ll be targeting some of the usual suspects. Colonial features bentgrass greens, which means we should see plenty of putts falling this week. Guys are usually able to putt the lights out on pure, bentgrass greens. For course comparison, look at Valspar and RBC Heritage leaderboards, or just look at the same names that have popped up here over the past few seasons. Think more Zach Johnson, and less Dustin Johnson. I’m not huge into comparing courses, but you can look at the Valspar Championship and the RBC Heritage leaderboards to get an idea of what to expect this week. Recent Tournament History Colonial has been the longtime host of this event, so we have plenty of reliable data to look back upon. Here are the leaderboards from the last three installments of the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial:   Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the Wells Fargo Championship, the Players Championship, and last week’s Byron Nelson.   Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): There’s no denying that Colonial lends itself to ball-striking, as precise iron play into the green is a major factor. If a player is off by even a yard or two, they’ll face tough rough and bunkers, leading to bogeys. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Jordan Spieth, J.J. Spaun, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Stewart Cink, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, and Webb Simpson. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are fairly small at Colonial, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Patrick Cantlay, Jonathan Byrd, Alex Cejka, Webb Simpson, Wesley Bryan, Jimmy Walker, Jim Furyk, Ben Crane, Louis Oosthuizen, and Ollie Schniederjans. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Aaron Wise, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Russell Henley, Jimmy Walker, Grayson Murray, and Chesson Hadley. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green on Par-4s (SGT2G:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained tee-to-green on par-4s. Colonial is a par-70, so there’s added emphasis on the par-4s. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Patrick Cantlay, Pat Perez, Kevin Streelman, J.J. Spaun, Adam Scott, Grayson Murray, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Rickie Fowler, and Sean O’Hair. Studs *In order of my rankings Jordan Spieth ($12,400) – Back to the well! I think most DFS players will go balanced this week, or take savings to start their teams with Rickie Fowler or Webb Simpson. That means that Spieth shouldn’t be over 25% owned, which is silly in a field like this. He loves Colonial, posting a win in 2016 and a runner-up last season. Spieth putts best on bentgrass greens, and hopefully the familiar surfaces will help him channel his success of the past. Even during these recent struggles, he continues to be one of the best tee-to-green players. Don’t give up yet. Jon Rahm ($11,900) – Rahm dazzled with a runner-up finish here last year, but there’s pause for concern. He chose to blast drivers around Colonial which is usually a bad plan, but he was dialed in with his wedges. This season, he’s struggled with irons and wedges, so I expect some regression. He had another bad weekend at TPC Sawgrass, and clearly needs to work on dialing back his game on these less-than-driver courses. But, Rahm has proven he’s a world-class player, so there wouldn’t be anyone surprised to see him winning on Sunday. Justin Rose ($12,200) – It’s strange to see Rose here, and it’s also strange to see him skipping the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Rose is one of Europe’s biggest stars, so it’s a gut-punch for them not to have him. However, Colonial fits his game well and he’s been trending towards a win all season. Rose had a solid performance at TPC Sawgrass, which is good to see considering his lack

Players Championship PGA DFS – FanDuel Breakdown

FanDuel recently updated their PGA DFS offering, so players are trying to figure out the new format and optimize their lineups accordingly. Basically, they’ve taken away their eight-man rosters, and made their PGA product very similar to DraftKings’ product. The main difference is that you’ll have to adjust to the scoring system and new pricing. FanDuel Golf Scoring System: Eagle = 7 points Birdie = 3.1 points Par = 0.5 point Bogey = -1 point Double bogey (or worse) = -3 points Streak bonus = 0.6 points per hole under par Bounce back (birdie or better after making bogey or worse) = 0.3 points 5+ Birdies in a round = 4 points Bogey-free round = 5 points. 1st place = 20 points 2nd-5th place = 12 points 6th-10th place = 8 points 11th-25th place = 5 points Tournament Stop TPC Sawgrass is a tricky Pete Dye design, so we can look to comparable courses such as Harbour Town for an idea of what type of player might perform well. The course is a typical par-72 layout with four par 5s, but it doesn’t really favor the bombers. Several par 5s will be reachable for most of the field, but the difficulties of the par 3s and par 4s will mitigate the length advantage of the bombers. Like most Pete Dye designs, the players will be navigating tricky doglegs, mounding, bunkers and water hazards, and will be forced to hit less then driver off many tees. Once in position, the players will hit approaches to very small greens (again, similar to Harbour Town), so proximity and scrambling should play major roles in targeting certain players this week. Experience is key. With the exception of journeymen winners like Craig Perks and Stephen “9&8” Ames, past winners here have had at least 5 years of experience playing the event. Each of the last eleven winners at TPC Sawgrass has recorded at least one top-25 finish. You don’t need to strictly avoid first timers here, but like we talked about at The Masters, experience does play a pivotal role. Recent Tournament History Here are the leaderboards from the past three installments of the Players Championship: Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the RBC Heritage, the Valero Texas Open, and last week’s Wells Fargo Championship: Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): TPC Sawgrass is a course that challenges every player, but I do believe that approach play is the most important element. There are water hazards, bunkers, and native areas that players have to avoid, and many tricky approach shots into small greens. Pete Dye courses always place an emphasis on elite ball-striking. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Henrik Stenson, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Hadwin, Scott Piercy, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Stewart Cink, Keegan Bradley, and Ian Poulter. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are so difficult at TPC Sawgrass, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Jamie Lovemark, Adam Hadwin, Tiger Woods, Jonas Blixt, Tommy Fleetwood, Jimmy Walker, and Wesley Bryan. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Chappell, Trey Mullinax, and Tommy Fleetwood. Strokes Gained on Par-4s (SG:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained on par-4s. TPC Sawgrass has difficult holes throughout, but the par-4s will set the winner aside from the rest of the field. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Kyle Stanley, Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Nick Watney, Luke List, Kevin Streelman, Trey Mullinax, Patrick Reed, Byeong Hun An, and Marc Leishman. Studs *In order of my rankings Rory McIlroy ($12,000) – Rory seems to have figured this place out, after missing his first three cuts. Since 2013, he’s made all five cuts here with three top-10 finishes. Recent form is strong as well, with a win at Bay Hill, a 5th at the Masters, and another solid T-16 at Quail Hollow. His irons and short game have let him down this season, but I’ve been very encouraged by what I’ve seen over the past few events. He’s the co-favorite with Jason Day, in my mind. Jason Day ($12,100) – What a stunning performance by Day at Quail Hollow, picking up his second win of the season. He dominated with scrambling, hiding some of the glaring issues we’ve seen with his iron play. In any event, Day is capable of turning that around any week, and he’s returning to TPC Sawgrass where he’s a past champion. Day is a streaky player who rides confidence, and we’ve seen him go on incredible runs of golf in his career. Rickie Fowler ($11,500) – Rickie, the perennial bridesmaid, was up to his old tricks again at Quail Hollow. He got within one shot of the lead on Saturday, before four-putting for double bogey on the 17th hole. He then posted an ugly 73 on Sunday to fall outside the top-20. The thing about Fowler is he tends to play the same courses well year-in and year-out. He’s a past champion here at TPC Sawgrass, with another runner-up finish. However, he’s also missed the cut five times. Good luck figuring this one out! Henrik Stenson ($11,600) – Stenson is

Players Championship PGA DFS – DraftKings Breakdown

Daily and weekly fantasy sports have become all the rage. Battling it out over an entire season is fun, but sites like DraftKings offer a quicker payoff and big payouts for winners! Not only do they offer daily action in the four major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) as well as college basketball and football but also the PGA Tour. Your DraftKings lineup is made up of six golfers you select from within the $50,000 salary cap. Each week DraftKings offers a wide selection of games to enter at a variety of price points. You can even get a feel for the game in a freeroll contest. Before you put your cash on the line, I’ll offer my Top Values and Steals in this space every week, specifically geared to help build a winning DraftKings squad. I’ll also give you my Overpriced golfers to avoid and a couple of “Vegas Says…” tips to help you find those players for GPPs. Tournament Stop TPC Sawgrass is a tricky Pete Dye design, so we can look to comparable courses such as Harbour Town for an idea of what type of player might perform well. The course is a typical par-72 layout with four par 5s, but it doesn’t really favor the bombers. Several par 5s will be reachable for most of the field, but the difficulties of the par 3s and par 4s will mitigate the length advantage of the bombers. Like most Pete Dye designs, the players will be navigating tricky doglegs, mounding, bunkers and water hazards, and will be forced to hit less then driver off many tees. Once in position, the players will hit approaches to very small greens (again, similar to Harbour Town), so proximity and scrambling should play major roles in targeting certain players this week. Experience is key. With the exception of journeymen winners like Craig Perks and Stephen “9&8” Ames, past winners here have had at least 5 years of experience playing the event. Each of the last eleven winners at TPC Sawgrass has recorded at least one top-25 finish. You don’t need to strictly avoid first timers here, but like we talked about at The Masters, experience does play a pivotal role. Recent Tournament History Here are the leaderboards from the past three installments of the Players Championship: Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the RBC Heritage, the Valero Texas Open, and last week’s Wells Fargo Championship:   Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): TPC Sawgrass is a course that challenges every player, but I do believe that approach play is the most important element. There are water hazards, bunkers, and native areas that players have to avoid, and many tricky approach shots into small greens. Pete Dye courses always place an emphasis on elite ball-striking. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Henrik Stenson, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Hadwin, Scott Piercy, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Stewart Cink, Keegan Bradley, and Ian Poulter. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are so difficult at TPC Sawgrass, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Jamie Lovemark, Adam Hadwin, Tiger Woods, Jonas Blixt, Tommy Fleetwood, Jimmy Walker, and Wesley Bryan. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Chappell, Trey Mullinax, and Tommy Fleetwood. Strokes Gained on Par-4s (SG:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained on par-4s. TPC Sawgrass has difficult holes throughout, but the par-4s will set the winner aside from the rest of the field. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Kyle Stanley, Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Nick Watney, Luke List, Kevin Streelman, Trey Mullinax, Patrick Reed, Byeong Hun An, and Marc Leishman. Studs *In order of my rankings Rory McIlroy ($11,600) – Rory seems to have figured this place out, after missing his first three cuts. Since 2013, he’s made all five cuts here with three top-10 finishes. Recent form is strong as well, with a win at Bay Hill, a 5th at the Masters, and another solid T-16 at Quail Hollow. His irons and short game have let him down this season, but I’ve been very encouraged by what I’ve seen over the past few events. He’s the co-favorite with Jason Day, in my mind. Jason Day ($11,400) – What a stunning performance by Day at Quail Hollow, picking up his second win of the season. He dominated with scrambling, hiding some of the glaring issues we’ve seen with his iron play. In any event, Day is capable of turning that around any week, and he’s returning to TPC Sawgrass where he’s a past champion. Day is a streaky player who rides confidence, and we’ve seen him go on incredible runs of golf in his career. Rickie Fowler ($9,600) – Rickie, the perennial bridesmaid, was up to his old tricks again at Quail Hollow. He got within one shot of the lead on Saturday, before four-putting for double bogey on the 17th hole. He then posted an ugly 73 on Sunday to fall outside the top-20. The thing about Fowler is he tends to play the same courses well year-in and year-out. He’s a past champion here at TPC Sawgrass, with another runner-up finish. However, he’s also