4th and Goal NFL DFS Plays from Chris Rose
Chris Rose is back with his week 2 picks for the NFL Main slate.
The Ambush – NFL Week 2 from Steve Renner
Injuries once again are playing a major factor this week on the chalk and where the general public will go with roster construction. The biggest of them is the news coming on Friday that Falcons RB Devonta Freeman is OUT (as kind of expected) for their match-up this week against the Panthers this week which will drive Tevin Coleman’s usage up and his ownership as well. Let’s not confuse ownership with players being in good spots based upon situation rather than someone being in chalk simply because of their name and the match-up.
NFL Week 2 TE DFS Breakdown
Shawn Childs previews the Week 2 Tight Ends
NFL DFS: Week 2 WR Report
Shawn Childs povides his week 2 NFL DFS WR breakdown
NFL DFS: Week 2 Top Stacks
Week 2 is here and thus another slate to sort through and decide which stacks to look at for tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel. Last week the Bengals (Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, A.J. Green) and Vikings (Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs) stacks were solid. The Patriot trio of Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Hogan was underwhelming mainly due to the ineffectiveness of Hogan. Let’s see what this week has to offer. Washington Redskins Alex Smith, Adrian Peterson, Jamison Crowder Alex Smith, at this point, is a guy that we know what to expect from. He’s generally a guy that has been labeled a “game manager” and thus hasn’t consistently wowed anyone in the fantasy world. With that being said, Smith delivered last week what I would consider a typical Alex Smith game completing 21 of 30 pass attempts with 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. Smith is priced favorably on both sites, especially DK. Jamison Crowder had a letdown effort last week seeing most of his time out of the slot with just three catches and four targets on the day. Good news for him this week, though, is that he gets another good matchup against the Colts’ shitty cornerbacks and by lining up in the slot for the majority of his snaps, the majority of his routes are run in the middle of the field where Smith is most effective. On DK Crowder is just $4,900 and on FD he’s $6,000. He gets an uptick on DK based on the full-point PPR and his cheap salary. Adrian Peterson is not effective these days in the passing game, that role belongs to Chris Thompson. With that being said, Peterson was still able to manage 26 carries for 96 yards and a touchdown last week and added two receptions for 70. The Colts allowed over 100 yards rushing to the Bengals last week along with a touchdown on 19 carries from the running back position. As a home favorite with one of the higher totals on the slate, the Skins should lean on AP late in the game with a lead. I’ll run TY Hilton back after seeing 11 targets last week and catching a touchdown. Carolina Panthers Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess I’ll start by saying that Cam is my cash game QB on DK this week. Pass the bleach. In all seriousness, Cam, for lack of a better term, sucked last week against the Cowboys in one of the biggest piece of shit games you’ll see all year. With that said, Cam still came away with around 18 fantasy points. The Falcons lost two of their best, and in my opinion, most important defenders, especially when facing a team like Carolina. Deion Jones, their best linebacker and Keeanu Neal, one of the better young safeties in football are HUGE losses to Atlanta. With Cam’s rushing ability, I love the floor he brings this week along with his upside due to his rushing ability. Christian McCaffrey will also benefit from the loss of Jones and Neal with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. The Falcons’ defensive scheme, for a while now, has proven to allow receptions to opposing running backs and rely on the speed and playmaking ability of their defenders to shut the play down. With the speedy Jones and Neal not out there, CMC will have more time and opportunities to catch and run. Devin Funchess’ price on DK is preposterous considering that he’s the team’s number one wide receiver who will benefit from the loss of Greg Olsen. Funchess saw his target share increase by around 25 percent last season with Olsen out. The clear player from the Falcons to run this stack back with is Julio Jones who has destroyed Carolina in his career. In his last eight games against the Panthers from 2014 to 2017, Julio has averaged 10.6 targets per game, 6.6 catches per contest, and 117.6 yards per outing. Detroit Lions Matt Stafford, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay The Lions looked like absolute trash last week on Monday Night Football against the God Damn Jets (if you haven’t seen the movie Big Daddy, go see it). Anyway, I think the Lions bounce back in a spot where no one expects them to travel to San Francisco to take on Jimmy GQ and the 49ers. Kirk Cousins was able to put forth an efficient game against the Niners last week going 20-36 with 244 yards and two touchdowns. Stafford, who was under pressure all night and was all over the place with the ball should be able to get the ball to his receivers, mainly Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay. Tate operates primarily out of the slot as does the Vikings’ Adam Thielen who had six catches for 102 yards last week. Golladay was the lone bright spot for the Lions last week with 12 targets which he turned into seven targets for 114 yards. He played the most snaps of any Lions receiver suggesting that they’re inclined to make him a focal point of their passing attack. This is an opportunity to take advantage of a late-afternoon kick off and thus a Lions team which should attract hardly any ownership. George Kittle interests me on the other side with Marquise Goodwin’s health clearly in doubt and Kittle being a preferred target for Jimmy G early on. GOOD LUCK!
NFL PODCAST – WEEK 2
RENNER and ROSE are back for Week 2 with more breakdowns on the NFL slate, a little hiccup in the middle and even some discussion on how to stack and some hot takes on what a “bad correlation” is in NFL DFS.
NFL DFS: Week 2 RB Report
Favorable Matchup Alvin Kamara (DK – $9,500/FD – $9,000): I’m sure there were some Fantasy owners in the season-long games that had buyer’s remorse after Kamara delivered his impact game in Week 1. He finished with 141 combined yards with three TDs and nine catches plus a two-point conversion. In the end, Alvin scored 46.1 Fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The Saints had him on the field for 52 of 64 plays (81 percent of the time), which is a great opportunity. The Browns struggled in their first matchup to defend a workhorse back. James Conner gained 192 combined yards with two TDs and five catches while touching the ball 36 times. Kamara can do it all, and he has a great opportunity with Mark Ingram not an option off the bench. A matchup nightmare for Cleveland with a high floor and explosive ceiling. Enjoy one hell of a ride again in Week 2 as I expect a second top score at running back. Todd Gurley (DK – $9,200/FD – $8,900): In his first game in 2018, Gurley scored 26.70 Fantasy points in DK scoring which fell in line in his 2017 success. Todd finished with 23 touches for 147 combined yards with one TD and three catches while being on the field for 59 of 63 plays run by the Rams. He’ll continue to be a huge part of the Rams’ offense. Last year Todd had 312 combined yards with one TD and ten catches in his two games against the Cardinals. Arizona struggled to defend the Redskins’ RBs in Week 1 (308 combined yards with two TDs and eight catches). Gurley has a nice resume in this matchup while the Cardinals look to have risk defending the RB position out of the gate in 2018. The Rams will threaten the whole field, which is another reason to believe in his upside in the second game of the season. Priced extremely high, which required two TDs or more to pay off. Christian McCaffrey (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,400): A Fantasy owner should be happy with the usage of McCaffrey in Week 1. The Panthers had him on the field for 57 of 67 plays (85 percent), which is well above his opportunity in 2017. Christian finished with ten rushes for 50 yards plus six catches for 45 yards with nine targets. Last year he had 148 combined yards with ten catches and one TD on 31 touches vs. the Falcons in two games. The Eagles’ RBs had 120 combined yards with two TDs and four catches against Atlanta in Week 1. The Falcons lost their starting middle linebacker and strong safety in Week 1, which is a nice bump for the upside of McCaffrey in this matchup. If you plan on stacking Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in this game, I would make sure to add Christian to your game plan. A chaser game and improved opportunity should bold well for his explosiveness. James Conner (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,000): In a way, the Steelers made sure to ride Conner hard in Week 1 to stick it to the bargaining power of Le’Veon Bell’s agent. Conner finished with 192 combined yards with two TDs and five catches while receiving 36 touches. His heavy workload shouldn’t be repeatable in Week 2. The Steelers had James on the field for 77 of 84 plays (92 percent), which was a Bell-type opportunity. His salary remains favorable based on his expected chances and the high failure of the Chiefs’ defense against RBs (293 combined yards with one TD and 14 catches). Sure looks like a gift horse while being undervalued as far as salary. Tevin Coleman (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,900): With Devonta Freeman banged up, Coleman becomes a value play in the daily games. I’m sure he won’t get the whole show with the Falcons working in another back. Tevin gained only 45 combined yards with one TD and one catch in Week 1 while receiving ten touches. In his two games vs. the Panthers in 2017, Coleman had 61 combined yards with one TD and three catches. Carolina held the Cowboys’ RBs to 91 combined yards with one TD and three catches in Week 1. With 20+ touches and a TD, Tevin would be well worth his price point this week. I don’t like his previous resume in this matchup, but I can’t ignore his opportunity. If Freeman can’t go, Coleman has a light shade of green. Royce Freeman (DK – $4,300/FD – $6,000): Freeman was the RB that moved up a lot in drafts after a nice preseason. He failed to live up to expectation in Week 1 (15/71) after Fantasy owners were beaten by the decision making in playing time by the Broncos’ coaching staff. Denver had him on the field for 29 of 74 plays (39 percent), which paints trust issues in Fantasy owner’s hearts. Royce owners need to take a deep breath as he was the right choice on draft day. He is going to have explosiveness in 2018, and the Broncos’ offense looks to be improved in the passing game. The Raider didn’t shut down Todd Gurley in Week 1 plus they lost one of the better interior run defenders in that game. Tough dance in the daily game, but gut says, “ride him hard this week” as Freeman will be overlooked an under-owned. Duke Johnson (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,200): Tough weather conditions and a short passing window led to a brutal passing day by Tyrod Taylor. Johnson had plenty of playing time (46 of 89 snaps), but he was only able to touch the ball six times for 25 yards and one catch. Cleveland would like to keep the Saints’ offense off the field, which may be possible based on the poor defensive play by New Orleans. If the Browns chase on the scoreboard, Duke should be active in the passing game. Worth look especially if a Fantasy owner is stacking his matchup.
NFL Week 2 – Early Bets
I had a 14-2 week last week ATS and some folks in Slack asked for my picks this week after that. I would joke about now running into a 2-14 week but I did also have a pretty decent 2017 as well so let’s kick ass again this week and keep it going. One thing with this is that I want you to understand that YES I am betting the board here. Why? It’s a small/grind method to simply picking winners. My advice is to identify this, cross reference it with the hot Vegas Whisperer’s information and then lock in those wins accordingly. When possible, I buy the extra 1/2 point to avoid a push. My Plays for Week 2 Ravens +1 Texans -2.5 Redskins -5.5 Packers -2 Saints -9.5 Steelers -4.5 Dolphins +2.5 Panthers +5.5 Bills +7.5 Eagles -3.5 Cardinals +13.5 Lions +5.5 Broncos -6.5 Patriots Money Line … Lay up to 6 here. Giants +3 Bears -3.5 TOTALS Panthers/Falcons OVER 44.5 Pats/Jags UNDER 45 Giants/Cowboys OVER 42 SURVIVORS Broncos Saints Bears
NFL DFS: Week 2 Cash Breakdown
Winning in DFS is fun. Dominating in NFL DFS Cash is even better! Dive into the week 2 NFL Cash breakdown and dominate using our projections.
NFL DFS: Week 2 QB Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 2 QB Report and Cheat Sheet
