NFL DFS: Week 4 WR Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 3 WR Report and Cheat Sheet
NFL WEEK 4 DFS PODCAST
WEEK 4 NFL DFS PODCAST MAIN SLATE Steve Renner Chris Rose Winning Picks Player Debates! Ask questions for next weeks pods on twitter!
NFL DFS: TNF Showdown Week 4
I am normally cautious about the single game ‘show down’ slates as often times I try to avoid the games that I just wouldn’t have much interest in if they were on ‘Main’ slates, however this week we have a fantastic game both in terms of NFL viewership as well as fantasy vierwership. With the Vikings essentially on a 2 game losing streak and coming off a shocking home loss to the Bills last week, we’re gonna see them come out focused and ready to play tonight. This is a well coached team with too much talent to struggle again even on a short week and a long flight out west to L.A. The benefit for the DK showdown slate though is they’re facing a team who is highly regarded as the favorites in the NFC and has a solid defense as well. That said, with injuries to Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib the Vikings passing game should be able to execute better this week than it would have if they were healthy. Favorite 3 man core Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp With the showdown slates I have found it best (in every sport really) to lock in on a core set of players. We’re smart if we accept that nailing all spots available is going to require some good luck, but that doesn’t mean we should have 10 different lineups with all different variations of players. I would still lock in on a core and hitch yourself to that group. This increases our chances of getting those one offs right so long as the core performs well. My core this week is the Cousins to Thielen combination. I think the Rams will force the Vikings to throw underneath and Thielen is the man I think gets a ton of catches and hits for over 100 yards in this game. On the other side I expect this to be a spot where Cooper Kupp has a huge receptions game as the Vikings are more vulnerable in the middle of the field than anywhere else. Favorite Odd Ball Captain Choice Latavius Murray Cousins, Thielen and Kupp would be the three I mix and match the most in the Captain spot this week. However if you want a longshot play, consider Latavius Murray. With everyone flocking (like me) on attacking the CB injuries there is a nice leverage play to ride Murray as potentially getting 2 TD a week after he disappointed as a chalk play. Value One Off Plays Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett (TE) – Higbee is the main TE target for the Rams and that’s a good spot to target the Vikings defense. Everett is literally a longshot pray he gets some B.S. touchdown play at $1k as he’s seeing 1/3 the snaps that Higbee is and is really not much of a passing threat. But hey, all it takes is one. Dan Bailey (K) – Playing a Kicker with QB was something common in prior years on FanDuel in cash games. You’re basically saying so long as they don’t punt each drive we can get 3+ points out of the kicker or QB with either a FG or TD and on the showdown slates rostering a kicker is a great way to give yourself a safe floor play. FADES Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks Did I really recommend Kirk Cousins in a Prime Time Game? Yes, in case you werent aware I lost a bet with Chris Rose and had to tout Cousins at one point this year. So I chose to do it on a prime time game against the Rams????? Well, yeah… I’ve never been a huge fan of Cousins, but this is the perfect spot for him to finally break that prime time narrative when nobody expects it. Longshot ‘Luck’ Play? Malcolm Brown – RB … Dirt cheap RB who if we see Gurley get overused or have to come out for any period would be the next best talented player for the Rams to use this week with their key WR being in tough spots.
NFL DFS: Week 4 RB Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 2 QB Report and Cheat Sheet
NFL Week 4 DK Secret Stars
The Secret Stars weekly article isn’t suggesting the lineup you should use this week, rather its purpose is to identify players who represent extreme value at their current salaries for the week. Selecting these players will give you an opportunity to use such players as Melvin Gordon and Michael Thomas in your lineups. Here are our Secret Stars for Week Four:
NFL DFS: Week 4 QB Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 2 QB Report and Cheat Sheet
4th and Goal NFL DFS PLAYS
NFL WEEK 3!!!! We have a ton of great plays this week, with some being pretty chalky. There’s some rain in 3 games (Denver/Baltimore, Philly/Indy and GB/Wash) albeit not heavy rain. Let’s crush this today! QUARTERBACK Watson – I think this is the last week we see Watson under 8K on FanDuel. Like I mentioned in the podcast, Watson is starting to use his legs and trusting his knee. Eli Apple and Olivier Vernon are both out to the Giants. With Vernon out Watson should have a little more protection in the pocket, while Apple being out helps Fuller tremendously. Ryan – This is more so picking on a high total. As Steve Renner said, Sanu could be in for a big game. Ryan was on record saying that New Orleans gives them trouble with their multiple look defense. They’ll try to slow Julio one on one with Lattimore, which should open up secondary reads for Ryan. Goff – The more time we get closer the kickoff, the more I’m loving this matchup for Goff. I think San Diego does enough scoring for the Rams to throw the ball all game. He has a ton of weapons around him, so a Goff/Gurley/Woods or Kupp stack is where I keep falling into. Garroppolo – Jimmy G finally gets an “easier” matchup on paper this week. Going against a KC team who have been lit up by Rivers and Big Ben. I think this will be the highest scoring game of the week, with plenty of touchdowns from each QB. I think he finds Breida and Kittle for scores, along with running one in. Manning – He is just too ridiculously cheap. With Clowney questionable going into the game, Houston will try to do all they can to stop the run. This could be a game where we see more than 2 70+ passing touchdowns. RUNNING BACK Gurley – the best running back in the league…..against a bad run defense. He scores again (through the air) Hunt – Kareem Hunt should be the biggest fan of Mahomes right now. Let’s think game theory. With teams scared about Mahomes throwing all over them, what does that force defenses to do?………add another defensive back. And let me ask, what’s one thing defensive backs don’t really do all that well?………TACKLE. So, you add a defensive back, eliminate a front 7 guy who can stop the run that equals a prime spot for Kareem Hunt. Drake – Gore has been cutting into Drakes’ touches, but Miami should be able to establish the run with him early in this game. Oakland is 31st against the run and in a game where there could be some South Florida showers, I fully expect Drake to handle the load. Breida – I said on the podcast last week, that Breida would distance himself as the RB 1 from Morris as the RB1 on that team, and he did. I do think they get him more involved in the passing game, while also giving him around 15 carries. He’s one of my top 3 backs this week. Ekeler – Phillip Rivers and co. score enough In this game. Ekeler has been a great compliment to Gordon so far this year and has done it both in the running and passing game. SNEAKY WHO RB?!?!? Mike Boone – Everyone is on Lat Murray for good reason, who does score a touch down. This game gets out of hand quick, and Boone gets the call early in the 3rd quarter. The rookie out of Cincinnati was great in the preseason, and should get around 10 touches today. GUYS I’M OK WITH ROSTERING Kamara Thompson Murray Coleman (favorite of this bunch and chalky) WIDE RECEIVERS Beckham/Shepard – Like I said, I love Eli today and how I think Houston has to play this team defensively. They’re going to try and stop Barkley and make Eli beat them with his arm. This will be a back and forth game with 4 explosive receivers so can take it 80 yards at any time. Keenan Allen – I mentioned this on the pod and Renner wrote it up as well. I don’t think the Rams can play single coverage today. Maybe Peters will, but there’s no way Talib can anymore. And, with Allen in the slot against a zone coverage, you’ll see him find those open windows for the 8-10 yards can’t and fall first downs. Hopkins/Fuller – Not much else to say on this game except we’ll see some huge plays today. Hill – No one can tackle Tyreek in the open field, I’ll take him all day against any defender. He’s been extremely efficient with his targets catching 12 of 14. In a game where there will be a ton of scoring, you can bet on Hill either catching a long one, or returning one. Woods – well, we need someone to pair with Goff. Woods has 9 targets in each of the first 2 games. He was their play maker last year on the outside and possession guy. Goff and Woods hook up for a 64 yarder today. Martavis Bryant – what?!?!? Not Amari??? Nope! Miami can’t cover the DEEEEEEP ball and Carr targets him for a 50+ big gainer today. TIGHT END Kittle – Jimmy G’s safety valve and favorite target. These 2 torched Minnesota and should hook up a couple times today. Kelce – 16 targets so far this year and gets roughly the same matchup as he did last week. Limit expectations cause I think KC does a lot of damage on the ground today. Ebron – Athletic freak, and without the other monster Doyle this week. Should be pretty chalky though. Hooper – I mentioned that Ryan should have his secondary reads open today with Lattimore trying to slow down Julio. Hooper is more so a 3rd read, but he’s cheap and should have a few balls thrown his way Dissly – Seattle offensive is in
Mark Deming Week 3 NFL Picks
Week 3 NFL Betting Nailed College Football yesterday going 5-1. Today in NFL were taking TWO Overs. Stick to the plan and stay focused on the releases. 49ers & Chiefs over 54 Patriots & Lions over 54 Good Luck! ***Below is a bonus exotic parlay to play either with the spread or moneyline. Adding the parlay in your life provides some additional entertainment value as well as a chance at a big hit. 5 team spread parlay. Payout 20-1. Jags-10 Dolphins -3 Panthers -3 Atlanta -1 Bucs even 5 team Moneyline parlay. Payout roughly 11-1. Jags -600 Dolphins -150 Panthers -150 Saints -125 Bucs +105
NFL DFS: Week 3 Top Stacks
We had a bit of a mixed bag last week among the three stacks to consider. The Redskins (Alex Smith, Adrian Peterson, Jamison Crowder) turned out to be an unmitigated disaster as the ‘Skins were able to put up just nine points against the Colts’ shitty defense. The Panthers (Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess) proved to be productive as did the Lions (Matthew Stafford, Golden Tate, Kneey Golladay). On to week three…. Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz, Corey Clement, Nelson Agholor The Eagles will welcome back Carson Wentz after rehabbing a brutal knee injury that he sustained last season. He and the Eagles face a Colts defense which looked good against the Redskins last week but generally are not very good. Wentz faces a soft matchup in his first game back and Nelson Agholor who has seen 22 targets through two weeks with Nick Foles under center figures to play a prominent role against a piss poor Colts secondary. Corey Clement should be the workhorse in the backfield for the Eagles who are favored in this matchup. Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles have both been ruled out leaving Clement, who will be a popular option, the likely recipient of the majority of touches out of the backfield. Assuming that the Colts are trailing in this game, the clear-cut option to roll this Eagles stack back with is T.Y. Hilton. Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp This Rams offense might not be the greatest show on turf, but for my money, they are certainly close as it pertains to fantasy. The options are limited for them in terms of where the ball is going to go. Jared Goff has taken a big step forward as the Rams’ leader under center and has the best running back in football right behind him. Todd Gurley is a throwback. He’s a workhorse in the backfield; something we don’t see too much these days. The University of Georgia product has touched the ball 23 and 22 times respectively over the last two weeks and is coming off of an efficient 108 on 20 carry game against the Raiders. Cooper Kupp is as steady as they come for slot receivers and value receiver at that. Kupp has played all but two snaps thus far through two weeks and has 11 catches on 15 targets with a touchdown over that span. He’s just $4,900 on DK where there’s a chance I won’t have a lineup without him this week. Mike Williams would be the guy that I would run this Rams stack back within tournaments. Ideally, the Rams defense will aim to shut down Keenan Allen leaving more opportunity for Williams, a high draft pick and value option on both sites, to capitalize. New Orleans Saints Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas PSA: This will be expensive, especially with AK and MT. Brees is too cheap, especially on DK where he might as well be free for God’s sake. We all saw what Cam and CMC did to the Falcons last week. CMC caught 14 passes for over 100 yards. It’s clear that the Falcons defense is behind the eight ball without Deion Jones and Keeanu Neal there to limit the damage as it pertains to receptions to opposing running backs. To be honest, I have no fucking clue how they could possibly keep Kamara in check this week. He’s the best pass-catching back in the league right now (it’s not really close) and his volume is there. Michael Thomas has 30 targets and 28 catches through two games with three touchdowns under his belt. MT was able to accumulate 14 receptions and 183 yards last season in two games against the Falcons. I think Atlanta hangs around in this game and for that reason, Tevin Coleman is someone that interests me with Devonta Freeman out and will save some salary. GOOD LUCK!!
The Ambush – NFL Week 3 DFS plays from Steve Renner
The AMBUSH previews the NFL DFS slate for Week 3
