NFL DFS: Week 8 WR Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 3 WR Report and Cheat Sheet
The Ambush – NFL Week 8 DFS plays from Steve Renner
WEEK 8 INTRODUCTION Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS? These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays. In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups. Last Week: Winston (350 yds, 1 rush TD), Kamara (1 Rush TD, Beat Elliott), Diggs (8 catches, no yards, dud.), Njoku (Easy Chalk), Jags D (Ouch) AMBUSH STRATEGY THIS WEEK I will always keep evolving. One thing my Dad always told me was to keep learning new skills, keep staying relevant and I’m translating that into my article this week and the lineup construction using the AMBUSH plays because I think some of you are a little confused on where do I integrate AMBUSH plays, are they main lineup plays, are they my favorite plays at a position, do I play all together?? Great questions and the simple answer is that “it depends” and it’s honestly different each week and it’s different for each position. What I have done this week is listed the AMBUSH plays back within my positional rankings so that you can see within the position where I rank them compared to other plays in terms of building a main lineup or the top guy at a spot. I also have an AMBUSH play that centers around a specific game this week so the AMBUSH STRATEGY this week is actually an AMBUSH lineup focused around the Seattle vs Detroit game. Both of these teams have one path to the playoffs and that is through the wild card. Seattle is NOT catching the Rams and Detroit has too many good teams in their division to really creep to the top in my mind at this point. Both, however, should be in the mix for a wild card spot if they continue to play well but whomever loses this H2H tie-breaker is SEVERELY behind the 8-ball. Seattle comes off a BYE and has a healthier Wilson and Baldwin. Detroit is just two weeks removed from a BYE and also is healthy up front. The running game could steal the show here but with Harrison now joining the Lions I hope that boosts Seattle to pass it more this week and we get a dome environment shootout. At the end I’ll show you my AMBUSH lineup core…. THOUGHTS ON GAMES THAT DO VERY LITTLE FOR ME Redskins at Giants … This is the end of the road Adrian Peterson, enjoyed the career but this is a sad injury you will suffer this week. Sorry. Ravens at Panthers … Not a good match-up for the Panthers this week who will struggle to move the ball even at home. Ravens defense is in play. Broncos at Chiefs … I’m pretty heavy on the Chiefs fade train on this game this week. The Broncos are seeing Mahomes for the third time and second time in a month. I think they cover this game and keep it close and low scoring for a good portion of the game. Lots of other juicy games this week so we can fade this one. I love Lindsay for his value this week, but hate stacking this game. Jets at Bears … Slight rain here which downgrades the game for me but it’s also a matter of I see this being a ground game and a slower tempo than the Bears have been playing. I prefer other spots this week, although Chris Rose who has nailed Trubisky in his big games this year is high on him once again this week. Falcons vs BYE … The BYE is not as rested as you might think, they’ve got another week of 4 opponents so I think we start to see the BYE show some signs of leaks this week but it’s the Falcons and this is a spot where Atlanta gets up early in the BYE week and then seemingly comes out in the second half and starts to choke. Did you know that the BYE week has gone 25 weeks in a row without giving up back to back touchdown drives in a single game? That’s amazing. Take the BYE to the bank here. MY POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN QUARTERBACKS Aaron Rodgers … Newsflash here. He’s still good and he’s perfectly healthy. The Packers had extra rest for this game and Rodgers will be getting some weapons back to allow him to attack a Rams defense that should be licking their chops to get after the SoCal native Quarterback this weekend. But Rodgers is in that Brees/Brady immune to the match-up tier and with him throwing 42, 44, 40, 52 and 46 times this season outside of the game when he got hurt there’s very little concern about his floor in this match-up. Back to back 400+ yard games and in a spot where he might come in a little underowned? Rodgers should be your main lineup Quarterback this week. Ben Roethlisberger … Ben at home. Ben off a bye. Blah, Blah, Blah. You’ve likely heard all of that by now, but the reason I LOOOVE Ben this week is my love affair for Brown and Ju-Ju here against Cleveland who just gave up 350 yards through the air to Jameis fricken Winston. The Browns are struggling, they’re young and they’re poorly coached and no team has played more minutes so far than the Browns with all of their OT games this year. This is a fantastic spot for Ben this week and the Steelers passing game. AMBUSH PLAY Russell Wilson … There are two huge factors that are driving me
NFL DFS: WEEK 8 4th and Ambush Podcast
Chris Rose (4th and Goal) and Steve Renner (AMBUSH) give you their thoughts on the NFL Week 8 slate Preview game between our teams Vikings/Saints Discuss Each game on the main slate, fades, pivots, chalk, top plays Chris details his favorite QB of the week Renner details his favorite game stack of the week It’s all here. Enjoy!
NFL DFS: Week 8 RB Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 7 RB Report and Cheat Sheet
NFL DFS: Week 8 QB Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 8 QB Report and Cheat Sheet
FullTime DFS Podcast – Renner & Geriak: 10/22
NFL and NHL DFS podcast with Renner and Geriak
Week 7 NFL DFS: Primetime Slate
Get ready for some fireworks with the two prime-time games this week setting up as the most explosive games of the weekend on paper. SNF: Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs MNF: New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons QUICK OVERVIEW The Bengals-Chiefs game certainly shapes up as the one that will draw 60% of the ownership in terms of game stacking on this small slate, but I honestly think that it could flop more so than the Giants/Falcons game would. That said, I’m treating this as a balanced slate and locking in my favorite plays at each position rather than playing the leverage thought. CORE TARGETS These players have the best overall matchups this week and are my favorite plays on the Showdown and SNF-MNF slates. Saquon Barkley (RB – NY Giants) … The Falcons continue to get gashed by pass catching and elite running backs and Barkley is about as elite they will face this season. Alvin Kamara had a HUGE game against them and he didn’t even score a touchdown earlier this season. Barkley should be 100% owned on the SNF-MNF and Showdown slates and that’s no problem. Don’t get cute fading him here. AJ Green (WR – Cincinnati) … WR is very deep on this slate with Tyreek, Boyd, OBJ, Shepard, Julio, Sanu, Ridley all being in play and likely eating up ownership. That means we will get AJ Green reduce on the two game slate and I love him on the road and against this terrible Chiefs secondary — who is better at home yes — but I’ll lock in AJ Green on the road in primetime for 2 TD and 130 yards here. Pair him with Andy Dalton Ito Smith (RB – Atlanta) … Ito is clearly the goal line back and the guy who is going to replace Coleman going forward for the Falcons. I trust his talents more than others do and I think this is a spot where the Falcons utilize him a little more offensively as they get back to a 1-2 running back focused approach to keep their defense off the field as much as they can. Ito brings some value at a position that to me feels a little thin after Barkley and Mixon, so he is the preferred FLEX play this week. MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS QB: Dalton, Eli Manning (yep!) RB: Barkley, Mixon, Hunt, Smith WR: Green, Julio, OBJ, Shepard, Watkins, Ridley TE: Hooper, Uzomah DEF: Giants, Bengals FADES QB: Kermit the QB RB: Coleman WR: Cheetah TE: Kelce
NFL DFS: Week 7 Top Stacks
Carolina Panthers Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess Cam has been one of the more consistent QB’s this season and always has upside with his ability to run the ball. In Norv Turner’s offense, Cam has the highest completion percentage he’s ever had and is averaging 232 yards per game passing. McCaffrey is looking to bounce back after a rough week, his first since week 2, and even in a tough matchup running the ball, CMC will be a weapon through the air as he is each and every week. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs this season and CMC has at least five catches in four of his five games this season. Funchess has seen at least seven targets in each of his last four games and matches up with the Eagles defense who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. This game is one of the best, if not the best of the week, and I see a high-scoring contest here. Run this stack back with either Alshon Jeffery or Zach Ertz who are Carson Wentz’ primary targets. St. Louis Rams Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods Goff should be able to rack up some numbers here against the 49ers who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including 14 touchdowns to just one interception. Goff has eclipsed 300 yards passing in four of his last five games and will look to bounce back after an off-game last week. Gurley is Gurley and there isn’t much more that needs to be said, so we’ll just leave it at that. Woods has been as solid as you can find at receiver in a high powered offense. Couple that with the absence of Cooper Kupp and in an ideal scenario, Woods will see a boatload of targets. Woods has seen 10, seven, five, 11, nine, and nine targets per game this season, and that’s with Kupp active. The 49ers are banged up in the secondary which will only aid the upside of Woods. Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs The Vikings will once again be without Dalvin Cook in this game and I would expect Kirk to be throwing the ball around the yard. Adam Thielen has been the most reliable receiver in the league this season and will eat the Jets up from the slot, an area that the Jets have had trouble covering all season. Stefon Diggs, we can expect, will see Morris Claiborne on the outside. While Claiborne is good, very good, Diggs has shown in the past that he can hang with some of the better corners in football. Expect plenty of targets between these two receivers as Latavius Murray, starting in place of Dalvin Cook, can’t be trusted against a solid run defense like the Jets have. GOOD LUCK!!
Week 7 – 4th and Goal NFL DFS PLAYS
Quarterbacks Cousins – With Dalvin Cook set to miss this week again, we should see Kirk throw 30-35 passes. I said on the pod, Minnesota likes to “run” the ball with short routes and screens so we should see that often this week. If you’re not paying up for Gurley, Thielen would be the guy to pay up for. Trubisky – Back to back 300 yard games, including 6 touchdowns. New England struggles with the pass defensively, and Chicago has a bunch of weapons who can exploit this defense. Cohen is highly involved, but my favorite correlation this week is Gabriel with Mitch. Beathard – Going on week 4 now having CJ as one of my top quarterbacks. He’s still way underpriced and has the weapons that can keep pace with this LA team. His floor is around 18 FanDuel points, and at $6,400 that’s smashing value week to week. Others I’m ok with Brady Cam Mayfield Running Backs Gurley – In a smash spot. We’re not questioning his matchup, we’re questioning his ownership. Kamara/Ingram – I love this combo together. New Orleans tends to struggles a bit through the air outside of the dome, so this thunder and lightning combo should set the tone offensively for them. White/Michel – another combo I think you can play together. I do like this game offensively for New England. Just keep an eye on Michel with his questionable tag. Cohen – should be involved heavily in the passing game. Breida – This guy is tough, really tough. He’s been playing through all types of injuries. He gets a Rams D that’s not as imposing as they seem. San Fran needs to control the clock on the ground in order to keep the LA offense on the sideline. Expect a heavy dose of Breida this week. Other I’m ok with Buck Allen K. Johnson Chubb (will be chalky – I’m not sure how much I trust him in his first start) Yeldon Wide Receivers Thielen – Top WR in the league. If you don’t pay up for Gurley, pay up for Thielen. Woods – With Kupp out, Woods should see an uptick in targets. Brown – New Orleans struggles to defend receivers and Quarterbacks who can throw the deep ball. Brown’s still set is similar to DeSean Jackson who torched this week earlier in the year. Expect Flacco to find Brown a few times for 30+ yard gains. Gabriel – Great spot for him against this Patriots D. Back to back 100 yard games, and has caught all 12 of his last targets. Others I’m ok with Goodwin Callaway Tight END Kittle – He’s seen at least 6 targets in all of Beathard’s starts and has gone over 79 yards in 3 of 4. They’ll need to lean on him in order to keep pace with LA if the run game struggles. Njoku – TE’s vs Tampa. Lock and load. Ebron – TY is back this week, but Ryan Grant is out. That’s still 6 targets that should be filtered out to other targets. Ebron has been the best TE in football this year, and should continue today. Others I’m ok with Ertz Reed Howard Defense Jacksonville Indy Cleveland
The Ambush – NFL Week 7 DFS plays from Steve Renner
Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS? These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays. In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups. Last Week: Cousins (Just OK), CMC (Horrible), Crabtree (Money), Reed (WTF), Bengals D (Dagger) WEEK 7 INTRODUCTION Holy smoke balls, what a set of late breaking news we had at the end of this week with the Cleveland Browns sending Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville on Friday and it immediately sent everyone into a zombie frenzy of over-reaction to the news as if we now have a #1 running back that is going to light the world on fire for min price in Nick Chubb. Chubb is very talented, comes from a good program for RB at Georgia and should become the feature back for the Browns along side Duke Johnson as a pass catching RB going forward. The Browns this week are facing the laughing stock of the league defensively in the Tampa Bay Bucs who fired their DC Mike Smith (RIP #Smitty, you will always have a place in the Hall of Fame for all the yards you have allowed to Drew Brees) earlier this week after another horrific showing defensively against the Falcons last week. So now everyone is all over Chubb. Stop. Just stop. First off. The match-up is not amazing for Chubb. Tampa is so much of a funnel defense to the run it’s not crazy. They’re top 5 overall statistically against the rush in raw yards but near the bottom in DVOA. The reason for the gap? They are ATROCIOUS in the secondary and everyone thrashes them through the air. So this means that even if they’re not a stone wall defensively up front they’re not gonna likely turn around and hand off to Chubb 20+ times this week. Furthermore, I was on and remain on Duke Johnson, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku as viable options for Cleveland this week. Let’s break these guys down for a moment here. Jarvis Landry at only 6500 this week on FanDuel is in a fantastic spot. He saw 10+ targets vs the Bucs last year and should see 10+ again this week and should do a better job catching against the Bucs secondary than last week vs the Chargers. Lets lock him in for 7+ catches and 80 yards here. He is the #1 target in this offense. David Njoku is only 5700 on FanDuel and faces the WORST defense against Tight Ends and is increasing his volume now that Baker has taken over the QB role in Cleveland. Njoku at a week position is going to be 50%+ in cash and likely 40%+ in tournaments this week. He’s the #2 target in this offense. Duke Johnson is the pass catching RB and someone to consider in tournaments this week if we go heavy on this game to play for a shootout (which I’m not high on) or decide to play TD variance and fade Landry/Njoku. Johnson’s skill set on the road should help Baker on third down situations. All three of those guys are in GOOD positions this week and I’ll admit that Chubb is about equal to Johnson in terms of how good of a spot he is in. So the reasons for the love affair with Chubb are as follows People are sheep People want to believe in a rookie, the new shiny toy, the guy who had 2 huge runs vs the Raiders a couple weeks ago (and nothing else) He is dirt cheap at 4800 on FanDuel (which really isnt that cheap honestly) and 3800 on DraftKings (where almost everyone is close this free week — TODD GURLEYS PRICE WENT DOWN!, but I’ll get to DK in a moment) So lets stop here for a minute…. Folks are saying Chubb is a MUST play in cash because of his price. He is a “free square” that opens everything up for you… Uhhh. Well, I already had two high priced RB and a high priced WR in my cash lineup — but okay. What’s he gonna open up now? Ask yourself this on in a cash lineup. Are you playing Jarvis Landry, the #1 target in the Browns offense and a PPR machine against the worst secondary in the league? Are you playing David Njoku, the #2 target in the Browns offense and facing the worst defense against TE in the league? Are you correlating them with Baker Mayfield who isn’t that expensive in his own right? If you answered yes to 2 of the 3 or even all 3 … then stop … You want to make it 3 or 4 Browns in cash? A team that is not built to blow teams out? Yes? Do you think Cleveland (a road dog, who hasn’t won a road game in ….. how long???) is going to go into Tampa (honestly not an easy place to play at 1pm) and win 41-3? 31-10? 31-28? I don’t… But let’s say they do. Lets say they blow them out 41-10. You get a TD from everyone, you did it. You nailed the Cleveland Browns stack…… In cash…… Cool. You also just played the chalk in a tournament. Orrrrrrrrrrrrr…. Maybe it’s a shootout on both sides and it’s that last score, the 31-28 type…. Well. The other side of this game is 2% owned. And the other side is ONE SIDED on the passing attack as their ground game will do NOTHING this week. So why aren’t you playing Winston, Evans, Godwin, Jackson, Brate???? Play the
