The Ambush – NFL Week 13 DFS plays from Steve Renner
Lets get ready for week 13 of the NFL DFS season with the AMBUSH plays and get ready to lock in on the top plays for the week.
NFL DFS: Week 13 TE Report
NFL TE Projections and Writeup from Shawn Childs
NFL DFS: Week 13 Cash Breakdown
Winning in DFS is fun. Dominating in NFL DFS Cash is even better! Dive into the week 13 NFL Cash breakdown and dominate using our projections.
NFL DFS: Week 13 WR Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 12 WR Report and Cheat Sheet
Week 13 TNF Showdown
My Saints will travel to Dallas to take on Adam Ronis’ Cowboys in the Thursday night game of the week to kick off week 13 and both teams are in a rare Thursday spot where they had a full week to prepare, so we won’t have any complaints about players on a short week this week. On the injury front it looks like all the relevant skill position players will be a go on both sides. Tre’Quan Smith is the main guy who could still sit out again for New Orleans if they choose to rest his foot issue. On the offensive line both teams have banged up tackles that impacts them slightly but nothing that changes our approach this week. New Orleans Drew Brees is a viable plays on the Showdown slate. No sh*t right? He’s Drew fricken Brees and returning to his home-town state in a stadium he normally has played fairly well in. Brees needs to be in your lineup but not necessarily as your captain. Alvin Kamara will test the Cowboys linebackers in the passing game and should get plenty of usage on the ground as he and Ingram continue to split carries and he’s been a TD machine since coming into the league. Kamara is worthy of consideration in the Captain spot because he could easily run two in and also catch 5+ balls in this game. As the highest priced Captain his ownership might actually be lower than it should be. Keith Kirkwood has really taken full advantage of his opportunity since Cam Meredith went down with injury and is seeing plenty of targets in the passing game. On the surface, you’ll likely see only 10 targets over 3 games and not get that excited, but in this offense the 2-4 WR options are all going to be spread around but there’s that one game where someone jumps out and has a slight bump and gets 5-60 and a touchdown. Kirkwood is my sneaky WR to get those looks here this week. Others to consider: Saints D, Wil Lutz, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas, Taysom Hill Darkhorse: Zach Line Dallas Ezekiel Elliott does not have a good statistical match-up but someone who gets the ball 20+ times a game and is the main threat to score in the red zone has to be in consideration on the showdown slate. I like that everyone has picked up on the Saints being a great rush defense and it opens up Zeke in DFS as a must play this week because he won’t be 80% owned due to the perception that you cannot run on New Orleans. Dak Prescott may have to win this game on his legs for Dallas and he won’t have a high volume passing game here against New Orleans. He has nobody besides Cole Beasley (see below) who I think draws a good match-up this week and with New Orleans locking down on the running game even more, Dak will have to make use of his ability to move the chains with his legs. Cole Beasley is the only Cowboys WR option who draws any form of a good match-up here. Lattimore should completely lock down Amari Cooper and the Saints have been fantastic vs TE this year + Dallas has no consistent TE option. This opens up Beasley underneath and on third down to be the PPR target this week for Dak. Others to consider: Cowboys D, Maher, Blake Jarwin Darkhorse: Rico Gathers Overall CORE I would focus on I think we get a lower scoring game and both defenses have decent days, the kickers are going to win this slate and I would get exposure to Kamara, Kirkwood, Elliott and Beasley.
NFL DFS: Week 13 RB Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 12 RB Report and Cheat Sheet
NFL DFS: Week 13 QB Report
Shawn Childs NFL Week 13 QB Report and Cheat Sheet
NFL Week 13 – DK Secret Stars
The Secret Stars weekly article isn’t suggesting the lineup you should use this week, rather its purpose is to identify players who represent extreme value at their current salaries for the week. Selecting these players will give you an opportunity to use such players as Todd Gurley and Tyreek Hill in your lineups. Here are our Secret Stars for Week 13: QB Tom Brady $5,800 vs. MIN – Who would’ve thought we’d have to recommend Tom Brady at home against an opponent with shootout potential, yet here we are. The Patriots offense continued to look sluggish at the Jets on Sunday, but is trending up with Rob Gronkowski back and seemingly healthy. Minnesota just lost FS Andrew Sendejo (groin) for the season and top CB Xavier Rhodes pulled his hamstring Sunday night. Despite a solid overall ranking, Minnesota is 29th against RBs, 27th against TEs, and 25th against No. 2 receivers in DVOA pass defense. This sets up beautifully for a stack of Brady and either James White, Gronk, or Julian Edelman to hit big. The Vikings pass-heavy offense should ensure heavy volume for Brady down the stretch. QB Marcus Mariota $5,200 vs. NYJ – Despite completing 22-of-23 pass attempts for 303 yards and 2 TD s, Marcus Mariota couldn’t lead his Titans over the streaking Texans. He faces a much softer defense at home this week in the Jets. The Jets man-coverage and blitz-heavy scheme leaves them vulnerable to rushing QBs and Mariota has carried 22 times for 98 yards and a TD over his last 4 starts. He’s been far better with a 105.2 passer rating and is averaging 30.7 rushing YPG at home. RB Phillip Lindsay $5,400 @ CIN – It’s almost as if DraftKings is trying to bait people into playing more exposure by keeping Phillip Lindsay so affordable in the juiciest of matchups. Cincinnati ranks 28th in DVOA rush defense and yield a league-high 5.2 YPC this season. With LBs Nick Vigil and Preston Brown out due to knee injuries and the Bengals offense missing Andy Dalton (thumb) and likely A.J. Green (toe) Denver should experience positive game flow and ride its rushing attack to victory. Despite apparent management pressure to keep Royce Freeman involved, Lindsay has clearly separated as Denver’s lead back with his 5.8 YPC average. Should the Broncos fall behind, it’s worth noting the Bengals have yielded the seventh-most yards (590) and a league-high 6 receiving TDs to opposing backs. RB T.J. Yeldon $4,400 vs. IND – With Leonard Fournette facing a one-game suspension, Carlos Hyde will be a popular play this week. Yet the Colts rank fifth in DVOA rush defense and are much more vulnerable when attacked through the air. Indy’s Cover 2-based scheme has yielded the second-most receptions (80) to opposing RBs this season. Hyde is averaging a modest 3.4 YPC and hasn’t yet caught a pass since joining the Jaguars. He could wind up as a bust without a TD, but even if you punt an RB position with Hyde, Yeldon is a solid value with more PPR upside. WR D.J. Moore $5,600 @ TB – The Panthers rookie is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands and has quickly become the second-favorite target for Cam Newton after Christian McCaffrey. Carolina skill players need to be stacked in a dream matchup at Tampa this Sunday, as the Bucs rank dead last in DVOA pass defense and have given up the second-most receiving TDs (17) to opposing WRs this season. Moore has snared 15-of-17 targets for 246 yards over his last two appearances, flashing impressive YAC ability. With Devin Funchess (back) struggling and injured, he’s locked into heavy usage again this week. WR Adam Humphries $4,200 vs. CAR – The Bucs should be able to trade points with a Panthers team that’s yielded multiple TD passes in 8 of their last 9 games. With DeSean Jackson (thumb) questionable, the receiver rotation becomes a bit less muddled. Mike Evans was held to one catch for 16 yards by Panthers physical outside CB James Bradberry and could be shut down once again. If so, Jameis Winston will look towards his favorite interior receiver, Adam Humphries, who owns a decided quickness advantage over Panthers slot CB Captain Munnerlyn. Humphries caught all 8 of his targets for 82 yards and 2 TDs when these teams met in Week 9. TE Gerald Everett $2,900 @ DET – While they’re unlikely to get into another shootout that even resembles the showdown with the Chiefs in Week 11, the Rams are going to continue to put points on the board. Sean McVay is such a creative coach that he’ll find ways to replace the production lost with Cooper Kupp (knee) done for the season. In Week 11, Gerald Everett stepped up as that versatile interior option. He caught a short TD on a crossing route and burned the Chiefs for the game-winning from 40 yards out. Expectations can be tempered in a lower scoring game, but Everett is still a value to consider against a Lions team that ranks 26th in DVOA pass defense against opposing TEs this year. FLEX Bruce Ellington $3,500 vs. LAR – Since the Lions are almost certain to trail throughout a matchup with the elite Rams offense, possession receivers such as Theo Riddick and Bruce Ellington have a chance to produce great returns. Ellington has flown past T.J. Jones as the replacement for Golden Tate in the slot and he just managed 6 catches for 28 yards to meet value in a tough Thanksgiving matchup against the Bears. Granted, his aDOT (average depth of target) doesn’t do much to move the needle, but Ellington is a good bet for 5-8 receptions this week. He has a chance to exceed value against a Rams team that ranks 26th in DVOA pass defense against slot receivers. D/ST KC $2,500 @ OAK – Even on the road (where they’ve routinely struggled this year) the Chiefs defense is worth a look in this fantastic matchup. Oakland showed some fight in a tough road game at Baltimore before allowing
NFL DFS: Week 12 Primetime
NFL DFS Primetime analysis from Steve Renner for week 12
4th and Goal NFL DFS Plays 11/25
QUARTERBACK Luck – Back to back games with 3 touchdowns and at home. He’s been consistent as anyone this year, and should be able to exploit this Dolphins defense. Jackson – seems to be the chalk this week, especially with his ability to run the football. He gets a cupcake matchup against an Oakland defense we like to pick on. You’re pretty much rostering a running back in your quarterback spot. Baker – Cincy has been bad on defense, while Baker has thrown 11 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions in his last 4 games. My only problem here is how many attempts is he really going to need? Eli – Don’t look how, but Eli has quietly strung back to back productive games together and gets a bottom 3rd secondary this week. This Giants offense could be the sneaky stack of the week. RUNNING BACKS Fournette – The matchup may not look great on paper, but this offense revolves around their back. He should get over 20 carries again this week, and get in the box at least once. Connor – Smash spot, and bounce back game. Almost all in. Mixon – AJ Green is out, which should mean a few extra targets his way. Mixon should be the focal point of this offense this week, and under priced on both sites. Mack – Miami is bad against the run, while game flow should also be in his favor. Duuuuuuke – 3 receiving touchdowns in his last 2 games. He’s been very active with Kitchens as the OC and should continue this week. Breida – Coming off a bye and now healthy. Plus matchup against a bad defense. Also from Tampa area WIDE RECEIVERS (Position sucks this week) AB – Chalk best play at the position. Beckham – Effective with his 4 targets last week, but prior to that he’s been peppered with a ton or targets. As long as Eli can be somewhat ok this week, OBJ should have a monster week. Dj Moore – Funchess is doubtful, while we saw what Moore can do last week when given the opportunity. He may be a little bit chalky, but given Seattle trying to slow Cam down running he should take advantage of this spot. Crabtree/Snead – Revenge narrative for Crab…..Possession receivers are rookie quarterbacks friends. Hilton – Another big game coming this week. Miami won’t be able to stop the speed of Hilton, plus some hometown narrative (From Miami and went to FIU). TIGHT Kittle – love this spot for him…..tight ends vs Tampa. Doyle – Lucks’s safety valve, plus Alie-Cox is out. Brate – With Howard going down Brate steps back into the starting lineup. We already know Winston loves Brate, plus he’s very cheap. DEFENSE Cleveland Jacksonville Baltimore
