Week 10 TE Report
Tight Ends Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $6,400/FD – $6,700) Kelce still hasn’t found his rhythm in the Chiefs’ passing game despite playing relatively well in his two games (4/63/1 and 7/62) with Matt Moore behind center. His only impact
NFL Week 10 WR Report
Wide Receivers Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,700) Despite missing starting QB for much of the year, Thomas remains the top WR in PPR leagues while averaging 23.06 Fantasy points per game. Even with his high ranking, he
TNF Showdown – Chargers vs Raiders
Week 9 MNF features an NFC East battle between Dallas and New York
Week 10 DFS RB Report
Running Backs Christian McCaffrey, CAR (DK – $10,500/FD – $10,500) The McCaffrey train goes zero to 100 in just about every week in 2019. He extended his scoring streak to six games with 11 TDs. On the year, McCaffrey scored
Week 10 QB Report
Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,600) This week on our forums at Fulltime Fantasy, I had multiple questions about starting Lamar Jackson vs. the almighty Patriots’ defense. My position was that Jackson would hold value due to his success and opportunity in the run game. The Ravens flashed on the ground early in the game while Jackson added in many completed short passes. In the end, he rushed for 61 yards with a pair of TDs. When added to his value in the passing game (17-for-23 with 163 yards and a TD), it led to a massive performance in Fantasy points (30.26) and an even bigger win for his team in their push for the playoffs and a Super Bowl title. After eight games, Jackson averages 28.42 FPPG) with half of his games delivering 30-plus Fantasy points. Over his previous games, he only averaged 175.75 passing yards per game with two passing TDs and three Ints. His decline throwing the ball was offset over this period thanks to his legs (63/399/4). In Week 6, he beat the Bengals on the ground (152/1) with some value in the passing games (236 yards). Cinci fell to 27th in QB defense after allowing 27.8 FPPG. The Bengals have risk on the ground with QBs gaining 8.8 yards per pass attempt. An excellent matchup, but a game on the road added to a possible let down after taking down the Patriots may lead to a flat showing even in a victory. Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,400) After missing two games, Mahomes should return this week after making progress with his knee cap injury. Over his first six games, he passed for 2,104 yards with 14 TDs with some value on the ground (16/80). His best value came over the first three games (378/3, 443/4, and 374/3) with strength in his completion rate (71.9). In his next three full games without Tyreek Hill, while battling an ankle issue, Mahomes completed only 56.0 percent of his passes with four TDs. The Titans rank 12th in CB defense (19.29 FPPG) with no team scoring over 27.00 Fantasy points. Tennessee lost one of their starting CBs this week while allowing QBs to gain 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Not the best matchup, especially with the Titans hoping to control the clock with the run game. Mahomes is a great QB with the tools to have success in any game. Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,900) Winston delivered plenty of passing yards in five of his previous six games (380, 385, 400, 301, and 335) with value in two of those contests in TDs (three and four). He sits sixth in QB scoring (23.04). Even with his success, his completion rate (56.5) has been a weakness in his last four games, with just as many TDs (7) and Ints (7). Winston has the second and third-ranked WRs in the NFL, helping his upside in games. Arizona allows the most Fantasy points (28.84) per game in the NFL to QBs with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (DET – 385/3, BAL – 392 combined yards with two TDs, CAR – 261/4, NO – 373/3, and SF – 317/4). Winston will be a top-two choice at QB in Week 10 with his possible downside coming from his success in rushing TDs. Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6,100/FD – $8,300) In his first two games back in the starting lineup in Week 8 at home, Brees passed for 373 yards and three TDs, which was a tick above his only other full game (370/2) on the year. In 2018, he passed for 567 yards and four TDs in two games vs. the Falcons. Atlanta allowed the second-most Fantasy points to offenses while ranking 29th in QBs defense (26.40 FPPG) with two disaster games (HOU – 426/5 and ARI – 340/3). His floor should be 300 yards with three TDs. Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,600/FD – $8,000) After two straight strong games (429/5 and 305/3), Rodgers turned his worst game of the year in Week 9 (161/1) even with Davante Adams back in the starting lineup. Other than his success in two games, Rodgers delivered two TDs or fewer in seven games with only one other game with over 300 yards passing (422/2). The Panthers are league average in QB defense (19.68 FPPG) with struggled in two of their previous four games (JAC – 374/2 and TEN – 369 combined yards with two TDs). Carolina allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt with struggles vs. WRs in three of their last four games (17/277/2, 23/296, and 16/244). Green Bay should have success with their RBs in close thus limiting the upside in passing TDs for Rodgers. Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,700) Murray didn’t play well in his last game against a tough 49ers’ defense, but he did save his day with a late 88-yard TD. Over his previous three games, he gained only 640 combined yards with two TDs. Murray is the 10th ranked QB after nine weeks with one impact game (340/3). Tampa ranks 30th in QB defense (27.05 FPPG) with three teams having a high level of success from the QB position (NYG – 364 combined yards and four TDs, NO – 345/4, and SEA – 378/5). Over the past seven games, the Bucs allowed 20 TDs to QBs. Tampa plays well vs. the run, forcing the Cardinals to score via the pass. Murray doesn’t have an impact resume with struggles turning red-zone chances in TDs, but this a winning matchup. Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,900) Stafford has been a beast in three straight games (364/4, 342/3, and 406/3), pushing him to fifth in QB scoring (24.98 FPPG). He’s on pace for 4,998 yards and 38 TDs and ten Ints while gaining a career-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Last year Stafford passed for 510 yards and two TDs in two games against the Bears.
MNF Showdown – Cowboys vs Giants
Week 9 MNF features an NFC East battle between Dallas and New York
NFL DFS Primetime: SNF-MNF Week 9
NFL Primetime Slate Patriots at Ravens (SNF) … Patriots favored by 3, OU: 45 Cowboys at Giants (MNF) … Cowboys favored by 7, OU: 48 We have two good games on the SNF-MNF slate with two home dogs and totals
4th and Goal Week 9
Quarterback Wilson – Obvious quarterback play this week with Seattle facing one of the worst teams against the pass. Tampa is allowing 293 yards through the air and just under 2 passing touchdowns per game. Load up Mr. Ciara Trubisky – We’ve attacked Philly all season and if Mitch can’t play well in this game it’s time to write him off. He’s been good in 2 of his last 4 games, one of those being a game he was injured in. I think he comes out firing…..or at least I hope Allen – Every week he starts off so slow then picks it up in the 2nd half. Washington is bad against the run, which should help with throws down the field. Allen is always a threat to run as well. Winston – Over his last 4 game, he’s averaged 322 yards per game, 2.3 touchdowns and just under 22 fantasy points per game. Winston has 2 very good receivers who’ll need to step up to keep pace with Seattle. Running Back Cook – Running backs vs KC. He’s priced way up, and the only way I can see him not being that involved is if Minnesota is getting blown out. Chubb – Love him this week. Cleveland has to start winning games, and needs to be done on the ground. Jacobs – He’s averaging 20.5 FPPG at home and has 15+ touches in the last 3 games. Detroit has struggled against RB’s over the last 2 weeks. Jones – If Adams is in this is a smash spot for Jones. This will take all of the focus off the backs and give Jones just a bit more running lanes. Samuels – chalk play….cheap, starting and volume. Wide Receiver Godwin – It’s his turn this week. Thrives against zone coverage Golladay – One thing that scares me is historically he never plays well after a monster game. BUT this is a smash spot against a secondary that’s giving up 2 td’s per game against WR. Metcalf – Everyone will be on Lockett this week, so I’ll take the savings on the big receiver. 5+ targets in each of the last 3 games. Robinson – Philly secondary is terrible. As long as Mitch isn’t a total dud, this is a huge spot for ARob Hill – Rhodes has struggled over the last year and a half. Hill is too way and shifty for X to cover him. Now, Moore is going to be heavily pressured this week so we could see a lot of screens from Tyreke. Pascal – Hilton is out, should see all the targets. Tight End Ebron- always in play when Hilton is out Waller – Mismatches all over the field for him this week. No one will be able to cover him. Smith – Looked great last week, and gets another nice spot against Carolina. Ertz – Where did this guy go?!?!? At 6k on FanDuel I’ll take my shot. Defense Bills Browns Panthers
The Ambush – Week 9 DFS
The AMBUSH previews the NFL slate for the main contests this Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 9 – TE Report
Tight Ends Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $6,900/FD – $6,700) At the halfway point of 2019, Kelce is trailing his excellent success in 2019 (103/1336/10). He’s on pace for 84 catches for 1,208 yards and four TDs in 135 targets. His opportunity is down about ten percent compared to last year (9.4 targets per game – 8.1 targets in 2019) while still looking to find his scoring rhythm. With Matt Moore at QB in Week 8, he caught four of his eight targets for 63 yards and one TD. His only game supporting his top shelve salary came in Week 2 (7/107/1). The Vikings are 17th in TE defense (11.64 FPPG – 51/459 on 77 targets) with two teams having success in catches and yards (OAK – 14/135 and PHI – 9/102). With Minnesota not allowing a TD to a TE in 2019 and the Chiefs having a downgrade at QB, I’d put Kelce in the steady column. His higher salary and matchup will make him a lower percentage own in Week 9. Darren Waller, OAK (DK – $6,300/FD – $6,800) For the first time in 2019, Waller had a tough time getting open vs. the Texans. He caught only two of his eight targets for 11 yards while scoring his third TD of the year over the previous two games. Before Week 8, he had an unbelievable catch rate (88.0) with two impact games (13/134 and 7/126/2). The Raiders have looked his way 7.3 times per game over the first seven contests. The Lions do have some risk defending TEs (22nd – 13.09 FPPG on 35 catches for 445 yards and two TDs) with most of the damage coming in two games (KC – 9/128 and MIN – 10/118/2). Detroit did play well defending the Eagles’ TEs in Week 3 (4/64 on eight targets). Waller’s salary ($6,300) requires almost 25.0 Fantasy points, which would force him to extend his TD streak with a run at 100 yards receiving to be in play. I’ll call him a maybe if this game is played at fast pace. Hunter Henry, LAC (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,400) With two excellent games (8/100/2 and 6/97) after missing four games with a knee injury, Henry had a step back in value in Week 8 (4/47 on six targets). Over four games, he has 22 catches for 304 yards and two TDs on 112 targets, which is on pace (88/1216/8) for a Travis Kelce type season. His catch rate (78.6) commands more looks. The Packers fell to 26th in TE defense (14.45 FPPG – 42/445/4 on 60 targets) after the Raiders dusted them at TE in Week 7 (11/172/2). In their other two games vs. top TEs, Green Bay also showed risk (PHI – 9/81/1 and KC 4/63/1). Henry comes into this week with a high salary, which will make him tougher to squeeze in, especially for Fantasy owners looking to roster an elite RB. I’m going to give him the green tag with this game expected to have a battle on the scoreboard. Zack Ertz, PHI (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,000) There is no doubt that Ertz falls in the soft zone for daily owners looking for salary relief at TE in Week 9 while still adding a quality player. His game has been rather disappointing in 2019 (73/424/1 on 64 targets) when comparing it to his excellent success in 2018 (116/1163/8). Ertz struggled to get open in his previous two games (2/38 and 2/20 on ten combined targets), pushing him down to 7th in TE scoring (10.80 FPPG) in PPR leagues. The Bears are 23rd in the NFL defending the TE position (13.09 FPPG – 39/406/2 on 52 targets) with two poor showings (GB – 6/72/1 and OAK – 10/107). I don’t have Ertz as an edge as far as projections when adding the uptick in value for his teammate at TE (Dallas Goedert), but he does have the resume and upside to work at this salary level. Jimmy Graham, GB (DK – $4,300/FD – $6,400) The money pit of Graham returned in Week 8 when he caught three of his five targets for 20 yards. He now has five games with 30 yards or fewer receiving, which include a pair of goose eggs in Week 2 and 3. His best two games (6/61/1 and 4/65/1) came at home in two favorable matchups. On the year, Graham averages only 4.1 targets per game while being on pace for 42 catches for 468 yards and six TDs. The Chargers are 11th in TE defense (10.04 FPPG – 27/353/3 on 43 targets) with most of the damage coming in one game (HOU – 8/122/3). Easy avoid with more risk than reward. His only saving grace is his ability to score paired with his low salary. Vance McDonald, PIT (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,300) The downgrade at QB in Pittsburgh pushed down the expected value of McDonald in 2019. In his six games played, he has only 17 catches for 146 yards and two TDs on 21 targets with his best game coming in Week 2 (7/38/2). The Colts are 27th defending TEs (14.50 FPPG – 42/415/3 on 57 targets). Indy struggled vs. TEs in two games (ATL – 9/78/2 and OAK – 10/83/1) while doing a nice job slowing down Travis Kelce (4/70 on ten targets). More of dart than a player to target even with Mason Rudolph looking better last week. Jonnu Smith, TEN (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,500) Smith was the value play at TE last week, and the tea leaves were pretty easy to read about his upside and opportunity. He finished with six catches for 78 yards and a TD with seven targets. Over the last two games with starting snaps with Delanie Walker injured, he caught nine passes for 142 yards and a TD on ten targets. The Panthers are 8th in TE defense (9.69 FPPG – 26/308/2 on 34 targets) with some slide defending TEs in the previous three