4th and Goal Week 11
Quarterbacks Jackson – Insane upside every single week. This is looking like the old college showdown between Lamar and Watson. Josh Allen – Starting to use his legs a bit more which raises his floor. He has some history against this Miami team. It’s a beautiful cool day down there as well, so it’ll keep him fresh. Ryan – Nice matchup here for him, against a team he has played well against. Atlanta won’t have much of a running game, so I think we see Ryan throw 40+ times Kyle Allen – Value Play this week, should throw 25-30 times. Running Backs Cook/CMC- obvious pays Singletary – Miami struggles to stop the run. He’s priced relatively low for the workload he should see. Jacobs – Aside of week 2 against the chiefs, Jacobs has scored in every home game this year. Cincy has given up 116 rushing yards per game over the last 9. Fournette – Upgrade at quarterback and heavy workload Mack – They have to establish some type of running game this week. They’re thin at WR, so they need to lean on Mack to control this game. Wide Receivers Thomas – Peppered With Double digit targets in 5 straight games and over 100 yards in 4 out of those 5. Julio – Cover 2 monster Evans/Godwin – Flip a coin again this week. Lattimore is out, so it could get ugly for this saints secondary. Moore – Another guy with a ton of targets, 30 over his last 3 games. Against a suspect secondary I’ll take it. Hollywood – Houston gets beat on a deep ball every game. Shoot out potential, he should get a long one. Tight end Smith – Irv is getting the 2nd most targets behind Diggs. Waller – One of 2 real “good” play at this position Andrews – The other good play Olsen – 16 targets over his last 2 weeks. Allen has used him at his security blanket. Defense Minnesota New England Dallas Jags
The Ambush – Week 11 DFS
The AMBUSH previews the NFL slate for the main contests this Sunday.
NFL Week 11 TE Report
Tight Ends Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,100/FD – $6,900) After a couple of short games (2/39 and 2/21), Andrews delivered another special outing against the Bengals (6/53/2 on eight targets). His season started with two electric games (8/108/1 and
NFL Week 11 WR Report
Wide Receivers Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $9,900/FD – $9,000) Thomas continues to be a rock at the front of the WR position on Fantasy rosters in the season-long games. Last week he did everything as expected (13/152), but Thomas failed to deliver the critical TD to full his salary bucket in the daily games. He’s on pace for 153 catches for 1,826 yards and eight TDs on 183 targets. His catch rate (83.5) continues to be fantastic while posting five games with over 100 yards receiving, which includes three straight contests (9/131, 11/112/1, and 13/152). Thomas already has five games with ten catches or more plus two other games with nine catches. His best game of the season came in Week 5 (11/182/2) against the Bucs. Tampa remains the worst team in the NFL defending WRs (48.40 FPPG – 140/1894/15 in 217 targets). Over the past two games, the Bucs allowed 40 catches for 609 yards and six TDs on 57 targets vs. WRs. Six WRs gained over 100 yards receiving (Sterling Shepard – 7/100/1, Robert Woods – 13/164, Cooper Kupp – 9/121/1, Michael Thomas – 11/182/2, Tyler Lockett – 13/152/2, D.K. Metcalf – 6/123/1, and Christian Kirk – 6/138/3). Tampa has risk at all CB spots while dumping their weak link this week. DraftKings pushed his salary up this week to hopefully lower his ownership. The Saints need a bounce-back win, and Thomas looks poised for an impact game. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,300) Hopkins ranks 7th at the WR position (68/665/4 on 92 targets), but he only has eight catches of 20 yards or more. His targets have been higher over his previous four games (12, 12, 13, and 11), which led to two games with over 100 yards receiving (9/106/1 and 11/109). His only impact game (8/111/2) came in Week 1. Over his previous eight games, Hopkins scored only two TDs while gaining only 9.8 yards per catch compared to 14.4 and 13.7 over the last two seasons. The Ravens are 20th in WR defense (36.61 FPPG – 126/1654/6 on 214 targets). Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Baltimore (Christian Kirk – 6/114, Larry Fitzgerald – 5/104, and Jarvis Landry – 8/167). Hopkins won’t have a significant edge in his CB/WR matchup. More of an against the grain play. On the positive side, the Patriots’ top two WRs had 20 combined catches for 170 yards and a TD vs. Baltimore two weeks ago. Amari Cooper, DAL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,100) One of the better locks in 2019 in Fantasy football is Cooper at home. He’s been exceptional in all five games in Dallas (6/106/1, 6/88/2, 11/226/1, 5/106, and 11/147/1) while gaining fewer than 50 yards in three of his four road games (4/44/1, 5/48, and 1/3). His worst game came from an early exit due to an injury. In Week 9, Cooper had his best success on the road (4/80/1). After nine games, he already has as many catches (53) as 2018 while topping that season in yards (848) and TDs (7). The Lions are 21st in the league defending WRs (37.01 FPPG – 118/1526/10 on 199 targets) with three teams with over 200 yards receiving (ARI – 21/233/1, LAC – 12/209, and MIN – 12/207/2). Only two WRs (Larry Fitzgerald – 8/113/1 and Stefon Diggs – 7/142) have over 100 yards receiving vs. Detroit. Darius Slay is a top CB, which will at least lower the number of targets for Cooper in this matchup. More of an avoid that a target while having the talent and explosiveness to surprise if Dallas does need to throw in this game. Julian Edelman, NE (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,400) The possession type of opportunity for Edelman makes him a tougher buy at his higher salary level ($7,600), which requires more than 30.0 Fantasy points to pay off. Over his previous five games, he picked up 42 catches for 437 yards and three TDs on 58 targets with three games of value (8/110/1, 9/113, and 8/78/2). Edelman’s path typically leads to seven catches for 74 yards and 0.50 TDs on ten targets. The Eagles opened 2019 with four disaster games (49.50, 57.70, 50.60, and 66.30 Fantasy points) defending WR over their first six matchups. Philly played much better defending WRs over the previous three games (34.90, 25.10, and 13.00 Fantasy points), moving them to 25th in WR defense (39.20 FPPG – 106/1551/12 on 176 targets). Their rebound in WR coverage was helped by a couple of injured WRs returning to the starting lineup. CB Avonte Maddox moved into the top slot CB role after missing four games with a neck issue. Edelman will have a considerable edge in this matchup while being active in the passing game. Not ideal due to his higher salary, but winning n the daily games requires making tough calls. Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,800) Last week the Saints held Jones to three catches for 79 yards on nine targets, which pushed his scoreless streak to six games. He’s on pace 94 catches for 1,406 yards and eight TDs on 148 targets. Jones gained over 100 yards in four games (5/106/2, 8/128/1, 8/108, and 10/152). Last year he struggled in his two games against Carolina (5/64 and 4/28/1) while having the best game (12/300/1 on 15 targets in 2016) of his career against the Panthers. Carolina ranks 24th in WR defense (37.78 FPPG – 142/1608/5 on 225 targets) with four WRs gaining over 100 yards (Chris Godwin – 8/121/1, D.J. Chark – 8/164/2, Chris Godwin – 10/51, and Davante Adams – 7/118). CB Donte Jackson may be limited this week with a hip issue while CB James Bradberry missed last week’s game with a groin issue. Winnable matchup if the Falcons’ offensive line can handle Carolina’s pass rush (36 sacks). Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,200) The Cardinals did a good job covering Evans last week, which led to four catches for
NFL – Week 11 TNF – Steelers vs Browns
Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off with a Thursday night battle between two AFC North rivals with the Steelers visiting the Browns. The total on this game is 41.5 with the Browns a slight 3 point home favorite
NFL RB Report Week 11
Running Backs Christian McCaffrey, CAR (DK – $10,500/FD – $10,500) The beast of beast in 2019 continues to be McCaffrey. He extended his TD streak to seven games while scoring 12 TDs over this stretch. McCaffrey rushed for over 100 yards in six of nine games. His two weakest games came vs. Tampa (53 combined yards with no TDs and two catches and 57 combined yards with two TDs and four catches). On the year, he averages 154 combined yards and almost 26 touches per game. In 2018, he gained 317 combined yards with no TDs and 26 catches against the Falcons in two games. Atlanta ranks 11th in RB defense (23.12 FPPG – 1,144 combined yards with nine TDs and 41 catches). Their only failure defending RBs came in Week 6 (171 combined yards with three TDs and eight catches). McCaffrey projects as the top RB again this week. His best value in Week 11 should come in the passing game. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (DK – $9,000/FD – $8,400) As the NFL season turns to Week 11, Elliott is the sixth-highest scoring RB (17.67 FPPG) with no impact games. He trails Christian McCaffrey by over 120 Fantasy points. Elliott rushed for over 100 yards in five games with six rushing TDs and a step back in value in the passing game (26/192) while averaging 22.7 touches per game. The Lions slipped to 31st in RB defense (31.02 FPPG) with six of the previous seven opponents scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Detroit allows 4.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring 13 TDs and success in the passing game (48/535/5). A very winnable matchup, but he does need Dak Prescott to stay away from his upside in rushing TDs. Dalvin Cook, MIN (DK – $8,900/FD – $8,600) After a disappointing game in Week 9 against the Chiefs on the road (116 combined yards and four catches), Cook gained 183 combined yards with a TD and seven catches or 31.1 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. He has five games with over 100 yards rushing while averaging a TD and 24.3 touches per game. Even with his success this year, Cook doesn’t have one game with enough Fantasy points to fill his salary bucket based on his Week 1 salary ($8,900). The Broncos ranks 13th in RB defense (23.38 FPPG) four straight games of success (9.50, 15.60, 24.10, and 16.50 FPPG) after struggling in the two previous games (38.40 and 32.90 FPPG). The Broncos allow only 4.0 yards per rush with RBs scoring six TDs. Denver allowed only one rushing TD over the previous six games. Cook is a special running back, but this matchup is slightly against the grain, even with a high ranking this week. Game score and a weaker option at QB for the Broncos should help his opportunity. Leonard Fournette, JAC (DK – $7,900/FD – $7,200) Based on combined yards (1,116) and touches (23.8 per game), Fournette is a top-five RB in 2019. Unfortunately, his glaring shortfall is his solo TD, which came in Week 5. He rushed over 100 yards in three games plus two other games with over 100 combined yards. Fournette’s floor is helped by his value in the passing game (40/295). The Colts climbed to eighth in RB defense (21.14 FPPG) with their only disaster showing coming in Week 1 (LAC – 219 combined yards with three TDs and seven catches). Indy allows 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring seven TDs. Even with 150 combined yards and six catches, Fournette can’t be in play without a TD and three bonus points if he rushes for over 100 yards. Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $$7,400/FD – $7,800) In his first game back in the starting lineup after missing two games, Kamara only attempted four runs leading to 24 yards with some value in the passing game (8/50). New Orleans had him on the field for 78 percent of the RB snaps, which fell in line with his opportunity over the first five games of the season. Finding the end zone has been a problem for Kamara in four of his five games. His best value came in Week 3 (37.10 Fantasy points) against Seattle when he scored a pair of TDs. He has fewer than 100 yards rushing in each game with plenty of value in the passing game (41/326/1) while averaging 18.7 touches per game. Tampa has the second-best RB defense (15.63 FPPG), with eight teams scoring fewer than 23.00 Fantasy points per game. The Bucs allow only 3.3 yards per rush with RBs scoring five TDs. The Saints will be without their starting left guard this week, which is a strike for the run game. I’m avoiding him this week. Le’Veon Bell, PIT (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,400) Entering last week’s game, Bell had the questionable tag with multiple issues. The Jets gave him 74 percent of their RB snaps, which was a season-low in playing time. He finished with 22 touches, leading to 68 combined yards with a TD and four catches. Bell sits 12th in RB scoring (15.06 FPPG) with his best success coming in three games (23.20, 21.90, and 20.10 Fantasy points). He averages 20.8 touches per game with only three TDs. The Redskins ranks 26th in RB defense (27.71 FPPG) with four of their previous six opponents scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (32.30, 47.20, 32.20, and 34.10). Washington can be beaten in the passing game at RB (55/442/2) with some of their failures vs. the run coming from volume of chances (32.2 rushes per game). I want to believe, but the Jets still need to play better on early downs. Bell is listed as questionable again in Week 11. Josh Jacobs, OAK (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,000) Jacobs ranks 7th in rushing yards (811) while having a game in hand over three players ranked in front of him. The Raiders haven’t given him over 60 percent of the RB snaps over the previous four games. Even with a
NFL DFS – QB Report – Week 11
Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,800) After nine games, Jackson is the highest scoring QB in the land while scoring over 30.00 Fantasy points in five contests (36.80, 33.60, 33.00, 30.25, and 35.65). His edge comes from his value in the run game (106/702/6). Jackson scored a rushing TD in four straight games (five total). His passing attempts have been short in his previous three games (20, 23, and 17). Houston plays well vs. the run (183/757/3), but they have risk defending QBs (24th – 24.30 FPPG) with three teams delivering impact games (NO – 370/2, ATL – 330/4, and 326/4). The Texans allowed 14 TDs to QBs over a four-game stretch. Jackson has been a hot ride, and this matchup looks favorable. His only strike is his rising salary. Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6.900/FD – $8,300) The Saints fell on their face in Week 10, which starts with a disappointing game by Brees (287/0). In his three full games, he averaged 343 passing with five combined TDs. On the year, New Orleans only has 12 passing TDs with weakness at WR behind Michael Thomas. The Bucs allow the second-most Fantasy points to QBs (27.49 FPPG) with failure in four games (39.60, 33.70, 43.00, and 31.00 Fantasy points). Tampa allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 22 TDs in nine games. New Orleans will struggle to run the ball (the Bucs allow 3.3 yards per rush), giving Brees an excellent chance at 300-plus yards. Last year he passed for 640 yards with five TDs in two games against Tampa. I sense a trap, but the Bucs didn’t have an answer for Michael Thomas in Week 5 (11/82/2) or two games in 2019 (16/180/1 and 11/98). Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200) Watson is the second-highest scoring QB (27.39 FPPG) with five impact games (34.40, 30.35, 46.00, 34.20, and 30.55 Fantasy points). Over nine games, he has high value in the run game (52/279/5). His completion rate (70.2) is elite while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt despite DeAndre Hopkins gaining only 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The Ravens climbed to ninth in QB defense (18.27 FPPG) after holding their previous five QBs to fewer than 18.00 Fantasy points or fewer. Their only poor showing defending QBs came in Week 3 vs. the Chiefs (374/3). More an against the grain play. Dak Prescott, DAL (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,100) Surprisingly, Prescott ranks fourth at the quarterback position (26.37 FPPG) after nine games. His season started with two impact games (37.45 and 31.35 Fantasy points) followed by two other special games (30.85 and 30.85 Fantasy points) over his previous five contests. He’s on pace for 5,248 combined yards with 37 TDs. The Lions fell to 26th QB defense (24.24 FPPG) with failure in two games (32.40 and 32.90 FPPG). Detroit allowed over 20.0 Fantasy points to eight of nine QBs. The Lions gave up 15 passing TDs in the past five games while also showing risk defending the run (253/1167/9) on the year. Prescott tends to be a better play at home (28.12 FPPG) compared to on the road (19.5 FPPG). I expect Ezekiel Elliott to steal the passing upside in this matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,000) With George Kittle injured and Emmanuel Sanders exiting early from last week’s game, Garoppolo had a tough time passing the ball vs. the Seahawks. He finished with 248 passing yards with a TD while completing a season-low 52.2 percent of his passes. His salary ($6,700) is up with the top QB in 2019 despite sitting 21st in QB scoring (17.83 FPPG) with only one game of value (32.05 FPPG). The Cardinals rank last in the NFL defending QBs (28.35 FPPG) with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (32.45, 33.60, 34.50, 44.95, and 32.05 FPPG). QBs gain 8.2 yards per pass attempt vs. Arizona with 25 passing TDs over ten games. The 49ers will have success running the ball, which makes Garoppolo overpriced in Week 11 based on the health of his receiving options. If George Kittle plays, I could see a 250/2 type game while still falling short of his salary bucket. Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,800) Allen threw for a season-high 266 yards last week leading to his best game of the year thanks to his success in the run game (6/28/2). He tends to have a floor of about 20.0 Fantasy points in four-point passing TD leagues while still looking for his first impact game of the year. Allen doesn’t have a game with more than two passing TDs. After ten weeks, he ranks 10th in QB scoring (21.49 FPG). Three weeks ago, Allen gained 234 combined yards with two TDs vs. the Dolphins after dominating them in two games in 2018 (he rushed for 220 yards and two TDs with success as well in the passing game – 555 yards and five TDs). Miami worked their way to 24th in QB defense (23.23 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points in four of their previous five games. Their only disaster showing came in Week 1 (44.45 FPPG) vs. the Ravens. Sneaky option in Week 11 while owing me a few dollars from his previous matchup. Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600) Even with an underperforming game (23.90 FPPG) vs. the Cardinals, Winston snuck up to 5th in QB ranking (23.14 FPPG). He finished 398 combined yards with one TD and a pair of Ints. Over his previous four games, Winston averaged 374 combined yards, but he tossed more Ints (9) than TDs (6). His best two games came in Week 3 (380/3) and Week 4 (385/4). The Saints held him to 213 yards and two TDs in his only game in 2018. New Orleans worked their way to 19th in QB defense (17.40 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points in five of their last six games.
NFL DFS – MNF – Seahawks vs 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers are undefeated and have a big battle tonight with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense coming in to challenge them in what I believe is a shootout on MNF. The Seahawks defense has yielded points on
4th and Goal Week 10
Quarterback (Very thin here this week. You could even pay down to Mitch Trash-Itsky and be ok) Winston – I’m fine with running him by himself this week, instead of the Godwin/Evans guessing game. Nice spot at home against a porous secondary. Fitzpatrick – I like Miami to win this game, and it’ll be done through Fitz. Unfortunately he did lose one of his top targets, but Fitz has been good in the past with less than great skill guys. Brees – Brees at home, I’m a division game, which probably shoots out. Running Backs (there’s a lot of backs I like this week) CMC – Not much needed here to talk about. Great spot but finally priced right on Fanduel. He’s expensive, so if you fade you pray he doesn’t go for 35+ points. Jones – Carolina is 25th in league giving up 111 yards per game on the ground. He was bottled up last week, but should break out and be involved in the passing game as well. Barkley – Pivot off CMC. With all their injuries at the skill position, this may be the week we see 12+ targets. I think New York comes out and tries to establish the run against, where we see 25+ touches for Barkley. Montgomery – Probably one of the chalk plays this week. Detroit has been gashed 3 straight weeks against rb’s where all went over 24 fantasy points. Chubb – This will be the week Kitchens figures out they need to use their workhorse back. 3 100 yard games out of the last 5 and Cleveland is desperate for a win! Samuels – He won’t run for a ton of yards, but the dude caught all 13 of his targets last week. Pittsburgh will more than likely be down in this game, so flow and targets will be there. Wide Receivers Godwin/Evans – Every week I flip a coin and get it wrong. So here’s my game theory. We can figure Evans will see some Peterson. Now, if they lock Evans up one on one with Peterson we have to go there. Height mismatch, targets, it’s just too good to pass up. If they run a cover 2 or 3 across the board then it’d Godwin who has the game. So to make it simple…….flip a coin. Thomas – Would’ve liked to see Kamara out but it’s still a spot that’s tough to fade. In 6 career games, Thomas has caught 10 or more balls in 3 of those while also seeing 10 or more targets in 4 of those. Ridley – He has destroyed this secondary in his short career. 15 catches on 21 targets, 239 yards and 4 td’s. Tate – Target hog this weekend with all their injuries. Pascal – Forced into the #1 receiver roll with Hilton out again. Indy will probably run a lot of 2 TE sets this week, so it’ll be a lot of short routes for him. Others I like Robbie Anderson Parker Tight End Ebron – Reports from Indy saying that they’re be running 2 TE’s often. More opportunity for Ebron especially red zone opportunities. Jonnu – 12 targets over the last 2 weeks filling in for Walker. Davis is out as well for Tennessee which should spin over to targets for Jonnu. Hooper – Should see 7+ targets again this week. He’s the main beneficiary of Sanu leaving. Defense Miami – They score this week. Rams Ravens
The Ambush – Week 10 DFS
The AMBUSH previews the NFL slate for the main contests this Sunday.