NFL DFS Quarterback Report – Week 13
Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,600) Mahomes seems so 2018 with Lamar Jackson lighting up the QB position almost every week of late. After starting the year with five straight games with over 300 yards passing with
4th and Goal NFL WEEK 12
Quarterback Winston – He’s on a heater against this team over the last few year. Should be a back and forth game where Winston should get the RB’s involved in the passing game as well. Ryan – Same goes for Ryan, back and forth game where he’ll feed Ridley and Julio Darnold – Crappy weather Sunday here, but Darnold has been really good over the last 2 weeks. Nice spot against a bad secondary. Mayfield – Miami has made bad QB’s look great. Baker isn’t bad but he’s underperformed this year. Prime spot for a huge game. Running Backs Kamara – Targeted a ton last week, and will continue again this week. Samuels – Bell cow against one of the worst defenses in the league against the run. Henry – He’s priced up a bit but no one can’t stop this freight train. Bell – I hate the offense he’s in, but it is a good spot. Will get all the touches he can handle. Others I like Chubb Fournette White Wide Receivers Ridley – I’ll take the discount over Julio Evans/Godwin – weekly coin flip on who to play. Crowder – quietly scored in 3 straight games and over 16 FP in each of those. D. Johnson – Pittsburgh is down to 2 receivers now with Juju out. Edelman – This is a smash spot is Sanu and Dorsett are both inactive. Metcalf – Give me a physical receiver against the Eagles trash secondary. Tight ends (trash can bin here) Waller Ertz Olson Defense Pittsburgh Buffalo New Orleans Washington
The Ambush – Week 12 DFS
The AMBUSH previews the NFL slate for the main contests this Sunday.
NFL Week 12 TE Report
Tight Ends Zach Ertz, SF (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,100) The TEs for the Eagles had a productive game (12/130/1 on 17 targets) against the top Patriots’ defense with Ertz finishing with nine catches for 94 yards. He also played well in Week 9 (9/103/1) while seeing his targets grow to 11 in both of his recent games. Philly turned to the TE position three times (9/102, 6/107/1, and 13/142/1) over four games before last week’s success. Ertz wondered his way through the first eight games of the season (37/424/1 on 64 targets). The Eagles’ TEs now have 79 catches for 878 yards and six TDs on 123 targets. Seattle played well vs. TEs in their last two games (2/23 and 3/24), but they still rank 25th in TE defense (13.64 FPPG – 49/615/4 on 76 targets) with four teams posting good results at TE (CIN – 9/93, PIT – 7/38/2, LAR – 10/183, and ATL – 9/94/1). The Eagles have injuries at WR, which forces them to move the ball with their TEs. Dallas Goedert did steal some of Ertz’s chances over the past five games (19/214/3 on 28 targets). Trending toward a backend WR1, but his scoring ability isn’t as high as expected, with Carson Wentz playing below his expected value coming into 2019. Darren Waller, OAK (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,200) Waller rebounded a bit in Week 11 (5/78 on seven targets), but he fell short of his predicted value due to no TD and a long catch called back due to a penalty. Over his last six games, he posted one impact game (7/126/2) while scoring fewer than 10.0 Fantasy points in four contests (4/39, 2/11/1, 2/52, and 3/40). His other game of value came in Week 3 (13/134). The Jets have played well defending TEs (8.98 FPPG – 38/408/2 on 54 targets) with seven teams scoring less than 10.0 Fantasy points. Even with a high ranking in TE defense (4th), New York faced nine opponents with weakness at TE (BUF, CLE, NE, DAL, NE, JAC, MIA, NYG, and WAS). The Eagles’ TEs finished with six catches for 68 yards and a TD on ten targets. His matchup looks dull, but Waller has the talent to be active in the passing game while the Jets allow three TDs a game on the year. Buy the potential volume and ignore his matchup stats. Jared Cook, NO (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,000) In a way, Cook has played up to his expected value in Fantasy points over his previous four games (51.5 Fantasy points – 12.88 FPPG). He has a TD in three of his previous four games while only have one game on the year with impact targets (6/74). His path after eight games puts him on a path for 46 catches for 550 yards and six TDs on only 78 targets. The Panthers sit 3rd in TE defense (8.48 FPPG – 33/408/2 on 46 targets) with only Tampa delivering a playable game at TE (4/82/1). More of a tweener this week with the Saints expected to feature the run game vs. Carolina’s porous run defense. The lack of a WR2 in the Saints’ offense does give Cook more upside than meets the eye if game flow breaks toward the passing game. Jacob Hollister, SEA (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800) Twice this year in the season-long games, the Seahawks’ offense produced a playable option off the waiver wire. Will Dissly caught 22 passes for 250 yards and four TDs on 24 targets over a four-game stretch, and now Hollister has back-to-back games (4/237/2 and 8/62/1) with success. On the year, Seattle’s TEs have 52 catches for 516 yards and seven TDs on 66 targets. The Eagles are 8th in TE defense (10.09 FPPG – 41/419/3 on 55 targets), with one team having a high production (9/91/1). Russell Wilson does look for his TE near the goal line with some value on third downs. Without a TD, Hollister would be a tough start for me in the daily contests in Week 11. Ryan Griffin, NYJ (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,600) Other than a poor showing in Week 10 (one catch for minus-two yards), Griffin proved to be a Fantasy asset in three (4/66/2, 6/50, and 5/109/1) over his previous four games. Even with a rise in value, the Jets only looked his way 18 times over the past four games. Oakland ranks 28th in TE defense (14.45 FPPG – 48/571/7 on 79 targets). The Raiders showed risk vs. TEs in three contests (KC – 7/107/1, IND – 5/70/2, and HOU – 8/69/2). Griffin’s success last week will draw attention in the daily games, but I can’t see a repeat showing. More of a trap. Greg Olsen, CAR (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,100) Olsen hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3, but he did move in the right direction over his last two starts (8/98 and 5/57 on 15 combined targets). His season started with two impact games (6/110 and 6/75/2) over the first three weeks while being a non-factor in all formats over his next five games (2/5, 0/0, 4/52, 2/13, and 3/40). The Saints are 10th in WR defense (10.83 FPPG – 48/508/2 on 67 targets). Their biggest struggles defending TEs came in Week 3 (SEA – 7/71/1) and Week 11 (10/73). Only a coin toss while needing a TD to be a viable option this week. Noah Fant, DEN (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,100) After a breakthrough game (3/115/1), Fant saw a season-high ten targets in Week 11, leading to four catches for 60 yards with a pair of runs for negative yards (7). His playing time has grown to 86 percent over the previous two games. Over his first seven games, Fant only had 20 catches for 185 yards and one TD on 32 targets. The Bills lead the NFL in TE defense (6.46 FPPG – 29/296/1 on 41 targets) with no team scoring over 16.00 Fantasy points. Tough matchup, but his game and
NFL Week 12 WR Report
Wide Receivers Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,300) In the daily world, it’s sad when Thomas can rank fourth WR scoring (28.40 Fantasy points) in DraftKings scoring last week while still feeling as though he fell short of his salary expectations. On the year, he averages 9.4 catches for 114.1 yards and 0.50 TDs on 11.3 targets per game or 25.52 FPPG). His high salary requires about 37.0 Fantasy points to payoff. Thomas has eight catches or more in nine of ten games with over 100 yards receiving in four of his previous five games. The Panthers rank 28th in WR defense (39.20 FPPG – 161/1891/6 on 250 targets). They’ve allowed over 240 yards to WRs in four of the last six games (17/277/2, 23/296, 16/244, and 19/283/1). Five WRs gained over 100 yards against Carolina (Chris Godwin – 8/121/1, D.J. Chark – 8/164/2, Chris Godwin – 10/51, Davante Adams – 7/118, and Calvin Ridley – 8/143/1). CB James Bradberry returned to action last week after missing Week 10 with a groin issue. His play has regressed in some of his past five games, but Bradberry still hasn’t allowed a TD in 2019. Thomas is an edge for sure, but he can’t be an option at his high salary level ($9,300) without scoring TDs. Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,400) After a great start over his first three games (19/265/4 on 30 targets), Jones hasn’t scored a TD in seven games while gaining over 100 yards in two other games. On the year, he averages 20.85 FPPG at home. Jones is on pace for 94 catches for 1,411 yards and 6.5 TDs. In 2018, he caught 19 passes for 282 yards and one TD on 27 targets in two games against the Bucs. Tampa is last in the league defending WRs (47.04 FPPG – 151/2024/17 on 234 targets) with disaster risk in three contests (LAR – 29/378/1, SEA – 21/293/3, and ARI – 19/316/3). CB Carlton Davis allows a low completion rate, but he did give up four TDs over his last three starts despite allowing low yards per catch. Six WRs gained over 100 yards receiving (Sterling Shepard – 7/100/1, Robert Woods – 13/164, Cooper Kupp – 9/121/1, Michael Thomas – 11/182/2, Tyler Lockett – 13/152/2, D.K. Metcalf – 6/123/1, Christian Kirk – 6/138/3, and Michael Thomas – 8/114/1). An excellent matchup with explosive upside if he ends his scoring slump. Tyler Lockett, SEA (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,400) Lockett came out of his last game in Week 10 with a shin injury that most likely would have him kept him out of Week 11 if Seattle played. The Seahawks expect him to practice later this week, putting on track to play on Sunday if he doesn’t have any setbacks. In his matchup vs. the 49ers, Lockett gained only 29 yards with three catches. His two impact games came in Week 3 (11/54/1) and Week 9 (13/152/2), which came after success the previous week (10/79 and 6/100). Overall, he averaged only 7.6 yards per game, leading to about 17.79 FPPG. The Eagles worked their way to 26th in WR defense (38.99 FPPG – 120/1666/13 on 201 targets) while showing improvement vs. WRs over the previous four games (10/169, 9/101/1, 5/80, and 14/115/1). Six WRs have over 100 yards receiving (Terry McLaurin – 5/125/1, Julio Jones – 5/106/2, Calvin Ridley – 8/105/1, Marvin Jones – 6/101/1, Davante Adams – 10/180, Stefon Diggs – 7/167/3, and Amari Cooper – 5/106) against the Eagles. CB Avonte Maddox will give up some big plays with some failure in his completion rate allowed. If Lockett is 100 percent, he has a chance to hit on a big play for a TD. His upside will be limited due to many runs expected by both teams and the Eagles to path in moving the ball. Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,000) Heading into Week 12, Evans is the second-highest scoring WR (20.13 FPPG) in PPR leagues. His value took a step back over the previous two games (4/82, and 4/69), which came after impact success in two contests (11/198/2 and 12/180/1). Evans played well in two other weeks (8/1903 and 4.89/1). He averages 9.7 targets per game. Last year in two games against the Falcons, Evans had ten catches for 164 yards and two TDs on 13 targets. Atlanta is 27th in WR defense (39.11 FPPG – 138/1835/12 on 190 targets) with failure in one game (HOU – 24/377/3). Four WRs (Nelson Agholor – 8/107/1, Will Fuller – 14/217/3, Tyler Lockett – 6/100, and Michael Thomas – 13/152) have over 100 yards receiving vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has risk at two CB slots while keeping their best option (Desmond Trufant) on one side of the field on most plays. Tampa will look to attack CB Isaiah Oliver with Evans on many plays. Oliver gives up a ton of yards with risk after the catch. Evans should score with a good chance with over 100 yards receiving. Chris Godwin, TB (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,800) Godwin slipped into the steady category over his past four starts (4/43, 7/61, 6/74, and 3/47/1 on 35 combined targets) after dominating in four of his five previous games (8/121/1, 12/172/2, 7/125/2, and 10/151). He averages 9.0 targets per game while setting career highs in catches (63) and receiving yards (887) in six fewer games than 2018. Last year he played well in both games against Tampa (12 catches for 170 yards and three TDs on 18 targets). CB Kendall Sheffield started the last five games for Atlanta with no damage in TDs allowed or many big plays. His pedigree is elite, which points to a rebound in value for Godwin in this possible shootout game. Odell Beckham, CLE (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,000) The scoreless streak of Beckham is now at eight games while scoring only one TD in 2019. Over his last five games, he gained 357 yards with 25 catches on 46
NFL TNF Showdown – Colts vs Texans
Is T.Y. Hilton 100% healthy? Absolutely not. Is he gonna play a game at Houston in a showdown slate and not make my lineup or write-up? Hell no. Of course I am going TY Hilton tonight and you should too
NFL Running Back Report – Week 12
Running Backs Christian McCaffrey, CAR (DK – $10,500/FD – $10,500) Last week McCaffrey did everything he needed to fill his elite salary bucket but score a TD, which fell more on the poor QB play in Carolina. He finished with
NFL DFS – Quarterback Report – Week 12
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200) After taking last week off due to a bye, Wilson to 3rd in QB scoring (27.15 FPPG) due to big games by Lamar Jackson (35.70 Fantasy points) and Dak Prescott (36.00 FPPG).
NFL MNF Showdown – Chiefs vs Chargers (and TNF Preview Colts vs Texans)
Showdown preview for the Chiefs and Chargers, while also looking ahead briefly to the TNF game to consider plays from that for your MNF-TNF contests.
NFL Primetime Week 11
NFL DFS Primetime For Week 11 Chicago at LA Rams (SNF) Rams 6 point favorites Over/Under: 40 points These teams met last year in Chicago and the Bears won a low scoring game 15-6 Kansas City at LA Chargers (MNF)