Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 Only in a season as cruel as 2024 would we have to sit through…Bo Nix vs. Spencer Rattler. No, seriously. We have to pay for it and everything. Lamentably, duty calls and even bad
Only in a season as cruel as 2024 would we have to sit through…Bo Nix vs. Spencer Rattler. No, seriously. We have to pay for it and everything. Lamentably, duty calls and even bad football is still football. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 breaks down all the fantasy-relevant players in this Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints matchup.
Losers of four straight, the New Orleans Saints are reeling. The team that started 2-0 and outscored their opponents 91-29 is barely represented on the field in Week 7. The Saints are missing their quarterback, both wideouts and have other injury concerns.
Meanwhile, the Broncos seem fortunate to be 3-3 with their offensive struggles. Denver started 0-2 before rattling off three straight wins against the Buccaneers, Jets, and Raiders. However, things fell back to earth last week with a poor showing against the Chargers.
Unsurprisingly, the Saints opened as 4-point favorites. However, we’ve seen a massive shift as the Broncos are now 2.5-point favorites.
The opening line has also seen a precipitous dip, falling a full four points from his opening total of 41.5 points.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Denver Broncos | 29 | 26 | 18 | 28 | 22 |
| New Orleans Saints | 18 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 4 |
Seeing the Saints rank competently in offense is a bit of a surprise. However, most of that production came in the season’s first two weeks when the Saints were rolling. Since then, injuries and fading quarterback play have tanked the Saints’ attack.
Additionally, the New Orleans defense has struggled. The Saints have lost four straight games to drop to 2-4. And the injury woes that decimated the Saints’ offense have also taken a toll on the defense. New Orleans ranks 30th against the pass and next to last in surrendering yards per play.
Conversely, the Denver offense has been one of the worst units in football all season. This was not expected starting a rookie quarterback who rarely pushed the ball downfield in college. Only four teams are averaging fewer yards per play than Sean Payton’s Broncos.
Things have been much better for Denver on the other side of the ball. The Broncos’ defense ranks sixth overall and versus the pass. This is a formidable unit that will make it hard for the Saints to mount much offense in Spencer Rattler’s second start in four days.
Denver Offense …
How will Thursday’s Broncos vs. Saints game go?
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6 We had some fireworks in Week 5. That set a high bar that will be hard for the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks to top. However, this NFC West showdown still has high
We had some fireworks in Week 5. That set a high bar that will be hard for the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks to top. However, this NFC West showdown still has high potential with plenty of fantasy ramifications. Our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6 breaks down everything you need to know.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 10 |
These NFC West games always bring it. This week looks particularly interesting as both squads can move the ball well and score points.
San Francisco enters this game at 2-3 after a crushing 1-point home loss to the Cardinals. The Niners can pass and run with the best of them. However, their defense has slipped. Returning to 500 won’t be easy on short rest traveling to one of the NFL’s toughest venues.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks had their own letdown here at Lumen Field last Sunday. Seattle’s defense allowed the Giants to rack up 420 yards and 24 first downs in a 29-20 upset. Now, the pressure is on to quickly move on against their hated division rivals.
The opening line for this game was quite surprising, with the Seahawks being 5.5-point underdogs. However, early movement on Seattle has dropped that down to 3.5.
Additionally, the total has risen two full points to 49.
San Francisco Offense
San Francisco is top in the league in both passing and rushing. QB Brock Purdy’s 1,374 passing yards rank fourth. However, Purdy…
How will Thursday’s 49ets vs. Seahawks game go?
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5 Last week’s NFC East showdown didn’t live up to the hype. However, our Best Bet of New York +6 hit, so we’re content. For Week 5, we move down to the NFC South where
In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.
It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.
Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.
This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 1 | 30 | 16 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 22 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 29 |
The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.
Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.
The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.
New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.
On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.
The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?
Dallas Offense
Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…
How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second
In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.
It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.
Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.
This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 1 | 30 | 16 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 22 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 29 |
The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.
Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.
The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.
New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.
On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.
The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?
Dallas Offense
Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…
How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 Last week’s AFC East showdown boasted a ton of fantasy potential. Conversely, this New England Patriots vs. New York Jets rivalry game looks less appealing. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game. The Patriots got an upset win on the road in their opener. However, they weren’t able to get much going at home versus Seattle last week. Now traveling on a short week to face a tough Jets’ defense is another obstacle. Meanwhile, New York is coming off of a victory but has mostly struggled to move the ball. The Jets are winning games with an old-school mentality. With the Patriots struggling to pass and produce touchdowns, we are looking at a low-scoring slugfest type of game. New York opened as a touchdown favorite at home. The line dipped by just a half-point. However, the total plummeted down to 39 after opening at 42.5. Matchup TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS New England Patriots 20 29 5 25 20 New York Jets 27 22 26 20 15 The raw data backs up that low total. Other than the Patriots doing an excellent job rushing the ball, neither of these squads stand out on offense. Offensive line play is a reason why. New England’s front five has the fourth-lowest pass-blocking grade per PFF. And despite the success running the ball, the Patriots only rank 26th in run-blocking. Conversely, the Jets rank 10th in run-blocking and 24th in pass protection. Only the Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards than the Patriots. Points will be at a premium in this one. New England Offense Through two games, Jacoby Brissett ranks 29th in fantasy points. He has been held under 150 passing yards in both games. Additionally, Brissett doesn’t add much value with his legs. Facing a Jets defense that ranks ninth in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks is a daunting task. Brissett is +850 to rush for a touchdown. Also, his passing/rushing yards total of 181.5 hampers the entire New England passing attack. This is not an offense to target. However, the ground game looks solid. Rhamondre Stevenson ranks eighth in fantasy points. Stevenson is top-5 in carries and rushing yards and ranks sixth with a 75.6% snap share. Facing a Jets’ defense that ranks 24th against the run puts Stevenson in a solid position to approach RB1 numbers. Don’t overreact to Antonio Gibson’s Week 2 performance. Gibson played just 16 snaps. He may have earned more playing time moving forward. However, until he gets more consistent snaps, Gibson is little more than a fledgling flex option in deep leagues. New England doesn’t throw enough to their receivers to warrant redraft attention. No Patriots’ wideout is projected to top 22 yards. Ja’Lynn Polk leads the group in fantasy points. But Polk’s 10.8 fantasy points ranks 69th at the position. K.J. Osborn leads the receiving corps in snap share (68.4%) and has a solid 17% snap share. However, Osborn has only accumulated four grabs for 28 yards in two games. Demario Douglas will man the slot but has only caught two balls for 12 yards. The only Patriot pass-catcher worth targeting is TE Hunter Henry. Henry is coming off a robust 8/109/0 line on 12 targets vs. Seattle. However, this week’s matchup is tougher. The Jets held George Kittle to 40 yards and will undoubtedly make stopping Henry a priority. Henry’s receiving line total of 31.5 for this game is concerning. New York Offense Aaron Rodgers enters this game ranked 21st in fantasy points. He is relying on quick/short throws, resulting in a career-low 6.8 ADOT. Meanwhile, the Patriots have only allowed one touchdown pass. However, that came last week when Geno Smith looked fine throwing for 327 yards. Rodgers no longer runs and his passing over/under for this contest is 214 yards. Only the Texans and Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs than New England. Still, Breece Hall is tied for the position lead with 14 targets and ranks fourth in fantasy points. The last time he faced this defense, Hall turned 39 touches into 190 yards and a score. Braelon Allen made the most of his 20 snaps last week. However, he’ll find the going tougher against a Patriots’ defense that ranks 10th against running backs. Allen should be viewed as a high-risk DFS option in single-game slates. WR Garrett Wilson has disappointed. The volume has not been there and Wilson ranks just 34th in fantasy points. However, the Patriots just got worked over by Seattle. They’ve surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts. Wilson will see plenty of Christian Gonzales in coverage, but his +145 TD odds and receiving line of 5.5/66.5 look good. Mike Williams was up to 37 snaps in Week 2. However, Williams is still recovering from last year’s knee injury. He’s little more than a boom-or-bust DFS flier for now. Williams has a yardage prop of 23.5 yards and is +490 to score. Allen Lazard fell off after his explosive showing in the opener. Lazard’s TD and yardage odds are higher than Williams’s, indicating that he is considered New York’s No. 2. TE Tyler Conklin is playing 93% of snaps but has little production to show for all the playing time. Conklin has garnered just four targets and is averaging fewer fantasy points per game than Andrew Ogletree and MyCole Pruitt. Prediction & Best Bet Easy W taking the Bills last week. Buffalo has dominated the Dolphins. However, this matchup is tougher. In January, the Jets finally ended a 15-game losing streak to the Patriots with a 17-3 victory at Foxborough. The last time New York beat New England at home was in December 2015. As one-sided as this rivalry has been, the Jets have failed to cover in six of their last seven. However, none of those games were with Aaron Rodgers under center. Having a credible signal-caller makes a huge difference. Meanwhile,
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2 After a sluggish Week 1, this week’s AFC East showdown has some potential. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are loaded with fantasy football talent. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2
After a sluggish Week 1, this week’s AFC East showdown has some potential. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are loaded with fantasy football talent. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.
Miami predictable moved the ball at will against Jacksonville. However, the Dolphins were held to 20 points. Now, there are health concerns and a formidable opponent to deal with on short rest.
Meanwhile, the Bills overcame a two-score early deficit to beat the Cardinals at home. Only six teams allowed more yards per carry in Week 1 than the Bills. That’s potentially troublesome against a Miami offense that leads the league in passing and has an imposing backfield. However, the Dolphins are short-handed with Raheem Mostert.
This game opened with Buffalo being half-point road favorites. However, the line has flipped. Miami is now favored by two. The total also dipped from 51.5 to 49 points.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Buffalo Bills | 12 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 4 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 18 |
Buffalo Offense
After one week, Josh Allen finds himself in his usual spot as the leading fantasy signal caller. The volume wasn’t there but Allen…
How will Thursday’s Bills vs. Dolphins game go?
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Friday Night Football Preview
Friday Night Football Preview The Packers and the Eagles will travel to Brazil to open their NFL seasons. This will be a new environment for these teams which always adds a variable NFL teams sometimes underestimate its impact. Which team will be ready to play in the first NFL game in the new continent? Our Friday Night Football Preview breaks down all the fantasy football angles. Additionally, we’ve included a bonus look at Thursday’s Ravens vs. Chiefs contest. Here is FullTime Fantasy‘s first-ever look at a Friday Night Football Preview. What’s New on the Teams Green Bay: Jordan Love emerged down the stretch last year and got paid handsomely for the flashes he showed in limited game action. He’s not a new player, but clearly, he’s thought of differently going into this season than last. Also, the Packers added Josh Jacobs as their new front-line running back after Aaron Jones departed for the Vikings. The Packers seem to have an embarrassment of riches at receiver. However, it’s unclear if they have a dominant WR1 on this team. Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks all look like intriguing values in drafts. Additionally, Bo Melton and Grant DuBois have looked interesting as young receivers but their paths to consistent snaps are blocked. Also, two solid tight ends, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, proved they could play last year. The amount of targets Love will have to work with could make many of the league’s quarterbacks jealous. Green Bay also used their first-round draft pick on an offensive lineman and it looks like he’ll start this year. Philadelphia: The new shiny piece the Eagles added was Saquon Barkley on offense. They also switched offensive coordinators to Kellen Moore. Moore’s system has tended to pass to the RB more than the Eagles have in their recent history. Defensively, the Eagles also changed coordinators and spent their first two draft picks on pieces to shore up their secondary. Their secondary was a problem last year. Will these young players patch that hole and return Philadelphia’s defense to a competitive standpoint? Players to Watch Philadelphia’s Offense: How much changed to one of the better offenses this year? There is a lot of talk about DeVonta Smith playing more in the slot – how will that impact the target distribution on this team? It’s been a pretty funnel offense with A.J. Brown and Smith accounting for over half the targets from Hurts. Will this change? Can a third receiver emerge? Will they use Barkley in the passing game more than they did D’Andre Swift? Will Shipley: Shipley could be a passing down specialist and if Barkley were to miss time, he’d likely get into a timeshare with Kenneth Gainwell. The interesting question for week 1 waiver wires and drafts still to be completed is will Shipley have an offensive role that could take advantage of his skill set? It’s probably too early in the season to expect Shipley to gain traction but, his snap count should be monitored. Jayden Reed: Due to the log jam at receiver for the Packers and him coming in third at snap share in a scrimmage, Reed doesn’t get the respect his rookie year performance earned last year. This will be our first look at how he is deployed by the Packers this year. Will he look like a lower snap slot-only player or will he figure into 2-WR sets more? Or will they run a ton of 11 personnel and it not matter? Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks looked like the most efficient receiver for the Packers last year. But it also seems like he’ll have a limited role behind the first three receivers. What will Matt LaFleur do with the receiver rotation? Can Wicks see the field and with his play can he force himself into a meaningful snap share? Green Bay’s RB2: AJ Dillon is on IR. MarShawn Lloyd is just starting his return from aggravating his hamstring – it’s not certain he’ll play in Week 1. Emanuel Wilson looks like he’ll be the RB2, but he’s also appeared on the injury report heading into week 1. How much will the Packers be able to utilize a second RB? If so which one and how much? How well will they perform? Green Bay’s TE Rotation: Luke Musgrave vs Tucker Kraft. Kraft is dealing with some back soreness right now, so it’s unclear if that will impact his availability. But assuming they are both available how does the TE rotation look in Green Bay? Will both tight ends counterfeit each other’s opportunity at fantasy goodness or will one emerge and become a TE1 this year? This should be another great game to watch and see how these two teams enter the year and fight for a critical first win of the season. No team with playoff expectations wants to start the year 0-1. Good luck to all the fantasy GMs as they put the pieces to the puzzle together in the NFL’s first Friday Night Football Preview. As a bonus, here is more on Thursday’s season opener. For an in-depth fantasy breakdown and Jody’s best bet, click here. Thursday Night Football Preview The Chiefs and the Ravens lock horns to open up the NFL season this year which will potentially be a preview of the AFC championship game. It’s a critical game for these teams to get off to a good start on the season and should be a great game for fans and fantasy managers alike. What’s New on the Teams Baltimore: It’s well-publicized that that Derrick Henry has come over to take the keys to the power running game. However, the Ravens have three new offensive linemen this year. Will the line be able to perform to previous levels and enable Henry to plow through the defense while they also have to be aware of the threat Lamar Jackson poses as a rushing QB will be a key to this game? Kansas City’s defense is
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 What a way to kick off a new season! After seven months, a rematch of last year’s AFC title game opens the 2024 season. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 breaks
What a way to kick off a new season! After seven months, a rematch of last year’s AFC title game opens the 2024 season. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the season opener.
Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs were able to squeeze by the Ravens with a 45-yard field goal with three seconds left. That set up the club to win their second consecutive title. However, winning a third gets off to an ominous start against that same Baltimore team thirsting for revenge.
The Ravens enter the 2024 season with the third-highest Super Bowl odds. Only the 49ers and these Chiefs rank higher. These teams are familiar with one another and match up well. But if the Ravens want to prove they can make it back to the big game, they must find a way to win at Arrowhead.
Vegas sees these two teams as evenly matched. The Ravens are the standard three-point underdogs on the road. Additionally, the total of the game has risen to 47.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 15 |
These teams are fairly evenly matched on both sides of the ball. While Baltimore employs a run-first approach, the Chiefs will attack through the air.
On the other side of the ball, these two teams allowed the fewest points in the NFL in 2023. Baltimore ranked sixth overall and led the NLF with 31 turnovers. Conversely, Kansas City surrendered the second-fewest points and ranked fourth versus the pass.
For Baltimore, sticking with their strength should be the game plan. Instead of attacking through the air, the Ravens will attempt to slow down the pace and stick to what they do best. Run the ball.
There are lots of new elements to Kansas City’s offense. Expect Reid to take plenty of downfield shots. However, Baltimore’s secondary is stacked and received reinforcement in the first round with CB Nate Wiggins.
Baltimore Offense
How will Thursday’s Ravens vs. Chiefs game go?
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Super Bowl LVIII Fantasy Preview
Back in August, many football fans correctly projected the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers would square off in Super Bowl LVIII. The Niners did their part as the NFC’s top seed, but KC’s path to repeating was anything but conventional. Regardless, hundreds of millions will be watching and our Super Bowl LVIII Fantasy Preview has all you need to know about this rematch of Super Bowl LIV. Using our RDA* projections, we can break down each game to find the statistical edge that can give us a leg up in playoff fantasy and daily fantasy lineups. Also, we can determine the best bets to make. Before you place those winning bets, our partner Edge Boost can help you double your entries and payouts! Click below to increase your winnings today. San Francisco 49ers (14-5) at Kansas City Cheifs (14-6) Time: 6:30 Eastern Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada Line: 49ers -1.5 Total: 47.5 Money Line: Chiefs +104, 49ers -124 Kansas City Offense Even in a “down” year, here we are with the Chiefs in another championship game. QB Patrick Mahomes is well on his way to solidifying his legacy as one of the greatest signal callers in history. Just 28, Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing in their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years. After a middling season by his lofty standards, Mahomes has been stellar in Kansas City’s jaunt through the AFC. He’s averaged 264.3 combined yards with four TDs and no picks in the playoffs. And our RDA* projections agree nearly perfectly with those averages, making Mahomes our top overall play on Sunday. San Francisco’s eighth-ranked defense was far better against the run (3rd) than pass (14th). However, that won’t deter us from inserting RB Isiah Pacheco into lineups. Pacheco has been a workhorse in the postseason, accumulating 69 touches in three games and averaging a robust 17.4 fantasy points per game. Taking into account the tough matchup, our RDA* projections aren’t that high. But, Pachecho will get his touches and is the favorite for any rushing scores the Chiefs punch in. Jerick McKinnon has been designated to return from IR. If McKinnon is activated for the game, he becomes a sneaky red-zone receiving threat. Also, McKinnon’s presence would cut into Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s 25.7% snap rate in these playoffs. Update: Andy Reid stated that McKinnon is unlikely to suit up. We’ve boosted CEH’s numbers. WR Rashee Rice remains the only reliable wideout in Kanas City. The dynamic rookie roasted Miami for an 8/130/1 line in the Wild Card round. However, he’s been mostly corralled in KC’s other two playoff tilts. However, this is a solid spot for Rice, who is our No. 2 PPR wideout this week. Among players with 50 targets versus zone coverage this season, Rashee Rice ranks first in EPA per target and fifth in total EPA (out of 63). via SIS data. pic.twitter.com/2zte35lCHQ — Mauricio Rodríguez (@MauNFL) February 6, 2024 Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been in on 59% of Kansas City’s postseason snaps but has a middling target share under 9%. Justin Watson has seen his playing time decrease and hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 11. Mecole Hardman has been seeing more playing time and occasionally gets the ball on a misdirection/gimmick snap. MVS and Hardman have some appeal in DFS lineups as boom-or-bust options. The safest bet among Kansas City’s pass catchers remains TE Travis Kelce. Undoubtedly, Kelce will receive more than his fair share of attention on the world’s stage. But the future Hall-of-Famer is more than worth of those accolades in fantasy leagues. Our RDA* projections have Kelce scoring the most points of any receiver or tight end in Super Bowl LVIII. San Francisco Offense Kansas City’s No. 2 ranked defense has set a record for most games not allowing more than 28 points. The balanced Chiefs allowed the second-fewest points and ranked fourth against both the pass and run. Still, Brock Purdy has made a name for himself overcoming the odds. From Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft to guiding his team to the title game, it’s been quite a two-year stretch for Purdy. The sophomore signal caller is surrounded by elite playmakers. However, our RDA* projections (238 yards, 1.4 TD) think Purdy could struggle against Kansas City’s elite defense. That puts Purdy firmly behind Mahomes, but still a player to consider in 2QB builds. The top fantasy option of this, and every week, RB Christian McCaffrey leads the way with a projected 19.7 PPR points. Fitting CMC into lineups can be expensive. Particularly in the captain’s slot. Regardless, McCaffrey is the safest bet on the board. He has an over/under of 123.5 scrimmage yards in this game. Elijah Mitchell has re-emerged as San Fran’s No. 2 back and has wracked up 25 touches in the Niners’ two postseason games. That kind of usage puts Mitchell on the radar as a solid DFS value on Sunday. WR Deebo Samuel has a much more difficult task. Led by elite CB L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs have locked down No. 1 wideouts all season. However, Sneed does not typically shadow and Samuel is often lined up in the backfield. That will allow Kyle Shanahan to get Samuel the ball in a variety of ways. Despite the matchup, Samuel is our No. 1 wideout to target. Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t fared quite as well against two-high safeties. That is the predominant formation the Chiefs use. Additionally, Aiyuk will see plenty of Sneed on the perimeter. Our RDA* projections have Aiyuk catching a modest four balls for 64.5 yards. Jauan Jennings caught two balls in each of San Francisco’s previous two postseason tilts but has a limited ceiling. Tight end George Kittle has had some success against this defensive scheme. However, the Chiefs surrendered just 10.7 PPR points per game to the position, which was the 10th-fewest in the league. He’ll see enough targets (including in the red zone) to be a decent start. But Kittle is overpriced in DFS formats. The most frequently used formation for the 49ers passing the ball has
Conference Championship Playoff Preview
By the time Sunday evening rolls around, we will know who will play in Super Bowl LVIII. In the AFC, Kansas City tries to repeat as the champions but must go through the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, in the NFC, Detroit hopes to make their first Super Bowl appearance by upsetting the San Francisco 49ers. Our Conference Championship Playoff Preview looks at the games from a fantasy and sports betting lens. Using our RDA* projections, we can break down each game to find the statistical edge that can give us a leg up in playoff fantasy and daily fantasy lineups. Also, we can determine the best bets to make. Before you place those winning bets, our partner Edge Boost can help you double your entries and payouts! Click below to increase your winnings today. Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) at Baltimore Ravens (14-4) Time: 3:00 Eastern Line: Ravens -3.5 Total: 44.5 Money Line: Chiefs +170, Ravens -220 Kansas City Offense The defending champs got by the Bills despite being out-gained and losing the time-of-possession battle 37-22. Patrick Mahomes compiled a 131.6 QB Rating in Buffalo, throwing for 215 and a pair of scores. Unfortunately for Mahomes, this Baltimore defense is much more formidable. The Ravens boasted the top-scoring defense in football and ranked third in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks. Additionally, the Chiefs still haven’t gotten much out of their wide receivers and Baltimore has surrendered just nine touchdown passes in 10 home games. Of course, you never count out Andy Reid and more Mahomes magic. Despite the tough matchup, Mahomes is still a viable option as a four-point underdog. RB Isiah Pacheco ran for 97 yards and a score in Buffalo. Although the Ravens have the NFL’s top run defense, Baltimore allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of their last five regular-season games. Also, Pachecho played 72% of KC’s snaps last week and is a capable receiver. Pacheco’s volume looks good, but the potential absence of Joe Thuney is worrisome. Rashee Rice has become the only reliable wideout in Kansas City’s offense. Baltimore allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position and will undoubtedly make Rice a priority, as the Bills did last week. Rice is the only wideout in Kansas City that can be viewed as better than a low-cost dart throw. Those boom-or-bust options (with much more emphasis on BUST) for the Chiefs include Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman. MVS and Watson play far more snaps. Kadarius Toney is OUT. The only other viable pass-catcher for the Chiefs is TE Travis Kelce. Kelce broke out of this slump in Buffalo, snagging a pair of scores and carrying fantasy playoff leagues. Baltimore only surrendered three touchdowns to tight ends this season and Kelce had his lowest TD output in four years. However, he’s by far the safest bet for fantasy managers looking for a KC stack. Baltimore Offense As clutch as Kelce was last week, his performance pales in comparison to what Lamar Jackson did against Houston. Overcoming a bland 10-10 tie at halftime, Jackson rushed for 100 yards and totaled four touchdowns to carry fantasy lineups and his Ravens to victory. However, the Chiefs present a tougher challenge. KC ranked second in the NFL in defense this season, including fourth versus the pass and second in points allowed. The modest over/under of 44.5 in an AFC Championship is indicative of the kind of battle this game is projected to be. Jackson remains the best bet to lead the Ravens in rushing. Gus Edwards is the de facto starter. But Edwards isn’t much of a factor in the passing game and is highly touchdown-dependent. Justice Hill led the backfield in snaps (39) last week and could factor in as an outlet receiver. Dalvin Cook only played in garbage time. But Cook has three-down ability and looks like a sneaky DFS punt play. Only two teams allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than Kansas City. CB L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed is one of the top coverage corners in football and will pose a major problem for Zay Flowers. Sneed’s stellar play was integral in the Chiefs’ ability to consistently shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Houston was able to limit Flowers to 8.1 fantasy points last week. Facing a far superior KC secondary, expecting a rebound seems like a tough proposition. Odell Beckham only played 20 snaps last week. He was out-snapped and out-targeted by Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor. If Mark Andrews can return, he’ll be a top-3 tight end in this slate. However, Isaiah Likely has fared very well in relief and is more than capable of making an impact. Projecting the Chiefs to slow down Baltimore’s wideouts makes both Baltimore tight ends viable plays in this game. The Ravens have won seven of eight and their strengths match up well with Kansas City. I’m not sure that the Chiefs will be able to score enough points in this one. It feels like Lamar Jackson is finally poised to win the big one. Ravens -3.5 Detroit Lions (14-5) at San Francisco 49ers (13-5) Time: 6:30 PM Eastern Line: San Francisco -7 Total: 51.5 Money Line: Lions +270, 49ers -340 Detroit Offense This is Detroit’s first road trip since Week 17 when they lost in Dallas by a controversial single point. We’re all aware of the home/road splits for Jared Goff. They were not as pronounced in 2023, but Goff must overcome that narrative if he hopes to keep Deroit’s season alive. Overall, San Francisco ranked eighth in defense and 14th versus the pass. The Niners picked off a league-leading 22 passes. However, a lot of that was gamescript-related. The 49ers allowed the third-most attempts due to playing with a lead often. Our RDA+ projections have Goff as the lowest-scoring signal-caller this week. But he makes an interesting option as a contrarian DFS option. Detroit will attempt to establish their running game to set up play-action opportunities downfield. However, San Francisco ranked third against the run. Expect David Montgomery to get the first drive and act as Detroit’s power back. The Niners did not allow a