Dongers Club – April 25th
MLB DFS preview with Steve Renner for Wed April 25th
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 4/25
This article will cover all of the games for today except for the Twins at Yankees and Braves at Reds Weather and Park Factors Mariners at White Sox (Early) – Temps in the mid-40’s, wind blowing out to right at about 15 mph. Diamondbacks at Phillies (Main) – Chance of some light rain, game should play without issue. Tigers at Pirates (Main) – Temps in the low-50’s, Wind blowing out to center at about 10 mph. Marlins at Dodgers (Main) – Temps in the low to mid-70’s. *If you’re a subscriber and HAVE NOT joined our Slack chat I would recommend doing so. Tweet or DM me for more details and take advantage of all that we have to offer at FullTime DFS. Pitchers Max Scherzer (WAS) (Early) There is no pitcher I’m considering on the early slate other than Max. Other than being one of the top three pitchers in baseball. Max has owned the Giants in his career and gets to pitch in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. In 139 plate appearances against current Giant hitters, Max has 51 strikeouts, or a 36 percent K rate, and has allowed just 26 hits while walking just eight. First-year Giants Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria have been dreadful against Max, much like the rest of major league baseball but they’re numbers are about as piss-poor as it gets. They are a combined 6-39 with just one extra-base-hit and 18 strikeouts. The Giants offense as a whole isn’t exactly a murderers row out there and the way Max is pitching of late (30 strikeouts and two earned runs allowed in his last 22 innings, or three starts), there’s no reason to go anywhere else but here on the early slate. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) (Main) Kershaw shapes up with the best matchup on the board. Let’s keep this short. He’s the best pitcher in baseball, at home, and facing one of the worst lineups in baseball. Ok? Got it? Good. Chad Kuhl (PIT) (Main) Kuhl has pitched well in two of his three starts this season. He’s got great stuff and has a great matchup with the Tigers. The problem is you never know which Chad Kuhl you’re going to get. Good Kuhl is very good with high strikeout upside. Bad Kuhl is an absolute trainwreck. I think we get good Chad Kuhl tonight at a nice salary on both sites. Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) (Main) ERod, much like Kuhl is helter-skelter out there on the mound. He’s either “ERod” or “EFraud”. His talent is undeniable. He has great stuff and arm talent, great in-zone command, controls the running game well, blah, blah, blah. The problems come with health and walks. He’s been great in his last two starts against the Angels and Orioles going six innings in each outing allowing a combined three earned runs. I’m good with ERod as a pivot off of Kershaw if you want to fade in order to pay up for bats on FD. He’s just $7,100 on the one-pitcher site. Zack Greinke (ARI) (Main) Greinke is not the dominant pitcher he used to be but he’s a complete pitcher, more so than when he had a mid-90’s fastball in his back pocket. His location is more important now than ever as he’s not sporting that fastball he had in years past. The Phillies are a good matchup for him as they have the highest team K rate against right-handed pitching. They also have the ninth-lowest team ISO. Greinke generates a ton of soft contact and induces enough ground balls to keep his pitch count manageable more often than not. At $9,200 he’s a $2,200 discount off of Kershaw at the high end of options on the main slate. SP2 Options on DraftKings Jake Faria (TB) (Main) Faria was scheduled to pitch yesterday but with the postponement, his start was pushed back to tonight. Perfect because he’s a great fit at a great salary on DK to pair up with Kershaw. The Orioles strike out a ton against righties and Faria’s last two starts have been great as he’s gone a combined 11.1 innings, struck out 13, and allowed just two earned runs. He’ll be the chalk SP2 from what I’ve seen but I’m fine with that. Steven Matz (NYM) (Main) Outside of his last start where, for some reason, he got a quick hook against the Nats, Matz has been solid this season and is very much in play at $6,500 on DK. The Cardinals strike out 25 percent of the time against lefties and have a .292 wOBA and .139 ISO against southpaws. Michael Wacha (STL) (Main) Before Luke Weaver’s meltdown last night – he walked pinch-hitting Wilmer Flores and Michael Conforto on eight pitches and then went to three and one against Yoenis Cespedes before he hit a ball that hasn’t landed yet – the Mets’ bats were pretty quiet and remained quiet until late in the game when they got a 10th-inning home run from Jay Bruce to pull out the win. Weaver is gonna be fine as he continues to develop, but Wacha has a few years under his belt and has always handled the Mets well. In six starts against them spanning over 36.2 innings, he has a 2.70 ERA, 36 strikeouts, and has allowed just 25 hits. The Mets have some strikeouts in their lineup with Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto, and Yoenis Cespedes all striking out over 21 percent of the time. Wacha pitches well opposite of Matz and is viable as an SP2. Favorite Stacks Nationals (Early) Let’s talk about Jeff Samardzija… I’ll keep it brief. HE SUCKS. And he especially sucks in day games – keep in mind that this is a 12:40 local time start. Imagine a guy going to pitch in one of the best pitchers parks in the game, if not the best, and sucking this bad. IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE. In 142 career day games (578 innings, I’d say that’s an acceptable sample size), Samardzija
Wed Afternoon MLB DFS – Dongers Club
Both sites have the same 4 game slate — the good is that they’re in sync — the bad is that the juicy game is the Reds vs Braves with two horrible pitchers going. WEATHER All four games early play. Good winds for lefties in Chicago PITCHING Mad Max … The Nats are looking really bad offensively so they’re gonna need a big performance from Max today to win… Or they just need the Giants to roll out Jeff Samardzjia in a day game… HOLY HELL, the Shark is playing in a day game. Aight. Max needs a 10k performance to hit his # — but he’s gonna win this game. Try to fit Max in on both sites first. King Felix … I’m paying up for some bats today. King Felix is my guy…. He’s not the #1 scoring pitcher on the slate. But for his price, he’s my guy. This is a high risk play. LONGSHOT Nick Tropeano … With a 2pm game and 90 degree temps they should be closing the roof in Houston today and that would benefit both pitchers. The Halo’s are making a statement this series and they’ll continue today with Tropeano. The Astros have yet to go off at home outside of a series against the Orioles and the little league team down the street could hit the Orioles staff that series as well. With a small 4 game slate, here’s a brief snapshot on the players I like … listed in order of preference. CATCHER – Zunino FIRST BASE – Matt Adams / Ryan Zimmerman — Check which one starts. Likely Adams gets the call today in a day game. Zimm is a fragile one. SECOND BASE – Cano, Moncada, LeMahieu THIRD BASE – Arenado, Seager SHORTSTOP – Turner, Cozart OUTFIELD – Cruz, Myers, Upton, Blackmon, Gordon, Pirela, Dahl, Haniger, Margot, Delmonico, Williamson TOP STACK Seattle … They should be way more popular than the Nationals who I think are the sneaky pivot above. Lock in Cano though if you can which means we’re going 2nd base in the utility spot on FD. SNEAKY Washington Nationals … I always play against Shark in day games. It’s what I do because he constantly is worse in them. All the Turner and Zimm if he is in. If not, I’ll gladly take Matt Adams chalk FADE Houston Astros … They have crushed Tropeano, but they’re cold right now and that history was in LA where the Astros always seem to rake. That’s why they’re #3 today. If the roof is closed, they’re my fade. You gotta fade someone on a 4 game slate DONGERS CLUB Robinson Cano – 2B – Chairman Charlie Blackmon – OF Matt Adams – 1B Trea Turner – SS Kyle Seager – 3B Wil Myers – OF Justin Upton – OF Mike Zunino – C BONUS ………….. DJ LeMahieu – 2B Double Dongs: Cano & Arenado Cycle Watch: Myers & Turner
Dongers Club MLB DFS – Tue Apr 24
WEATHER Big concerns with early games in the mid-atlantic region as there will be rain all morning and all day and all night… These games all look dicey and likely high PPD risk… Arizona @ Philly … All the Goldy if this game rocks. Detroit @ Pittsburgh … If this game plays I like JZimm to pitch well for Detroit. Tampa @ Baltimore … If this game plays stack the crap out of the Tampa Rays again, I expect all 3 to be high risk PPD games. PITCHING ACES Charlie Morton … He is not quite an ace, but he is priced like one.. I’m not paying his price tag against Trout, Upton and an Albert Pujols chasing 3k hits. He’s in play on FD but not on DK. Nope…. Shohei Ohtani … No chance in hell I touch him today. Robbie Ray .. The real ace on this slate but weather forces me off him. Game likely PPD MID RANGE Kenta Maeda … The idea of rostering Maeda and the guy below together on DK tonight is not what I consider a sexy play, but at home versus the Marlins Maeda should be a popular and no brainer play today in my mind. Tanner Roark … When Tanner Roark is going to be the popular play it’s time to consider fading him and going elsewhere. Roark is not a high strikeout guy and although San Francisco has increased K% this year, they’re still not someone I like to pick on, but on a slate when there’s no guy that has that lock 10K upside out there, we can take Roark who’s gonna be in a great ballpark to pitch in. Luke Weaver … While Maeda is your safe take it and move on play today, Weaver might be the kid with the most upside against the Mets today. He’s a strike-out machine when he is on but has two major concerns in my mind. First off, Mike Matheney’s use of him and the bullpen could really do damage and second this Mets lineup is not the easiest one to pick on in the world. They’ve calmed down a bit of late but I feel you wanna get a little upside in your tournament pitcher tonight and he would be the guy I am on the most on DK for tournaments today…. and yes, I have the Mets as a sneaky stack below. That should show you my lack of confidence in Weaver tonight. LONG SHOT Kyle Freeland … He’s gonna shut down the Padres tonight in my mind. Very cool temps and day after the Padres went completely off. Everyone will be scared to go here but this game screams a 4-1 Coors flop…. He’s my lock DK SP2. POSITIONAL TARGETS CATCHERS Jonathan Lucroy Sandy Leon Yasmani Grandal Lucroy is my guy here again tonight, he didn’t get the HR I wanted last night however Hamels has been a dead arm for the last 18 months and again I believe Lucroy’s #’s vs Lefties are gonna correct themselves. Grandal is a long shot at a weak position because he hits righties better, but could have some good RBI chances. FIRST BASE Joey Gallo Eric Thames Justin Smoak Gallo or Thames is going to be a must own guy tonight in my mind. SECOND BASE DJ LeMahieu Jed Lowrie Ian Kinsler Dont love this spot tonight. Lowrie in an Oakland stack, LeMahieu in a Rockies stack. Kinsler as a one off longshot HR call of the night. THIRD BASE Nolan Arenado Travis Shaw – Favorite pivot off Nolan Yangervis Solarte I don’t play Nolan Arenado with temps below 50, but… well, this matchup screams Nolan. Fade his chalk if you want. SHORTSTOP Trevor Story Marcus Semien Corey Seager Eduardo Nunez You might just eat the Story chalk here tonight. I like Boston to hit in Toronto tonight and so Nunez is a good guy to get from Boston. Seager is contrarian versus a lefty and had the day off yesterday so he should be ready to rock today. OUTFIELD – Top Tier Mookie Betts Charlie Blackmon Lorenzo Cain Christian Yelich Wanna play a trend? The trend this year has been take the high owned stud in a not so obvious matchup the day after he played in an ideal matchup and underperformed. Confused? OK. That’s Charlie Blackmon today against a lefty. Chuck Nasty dont care about any splits. He’ll be 20% lower owned today than yesterday though. OUTFIELD – Mid Tier George Springer Michael Conforto Stephen Piscotty Khris Davis (Still hasn’t homered off a lefty on the road. One of the wonders of the world) Nomar Mazara This tier is really deep today on FanDuel. I like these guys a ton more than the value play in a Cold Coors field today… Triggs sucks. Mazara or DeShields has a huge game today. OUTFIELD – Value Tier Delino DeShields Jay Bruce – 2900 on FD too cheap Chris Taylor STACKS Milwaukee Brewers … I hate to say it but I feel they’re going to drop 12 runs on my Royals tonight. Ian Kennedy is someone that I think the industry picks on faaaar too much but this is a perfect spot to jump on him. A heavy HR reliant team in my mind with two guys at the top who will actually slap the ball into the Kauffman Stadium gaps and generate trouble for Kennedy. The Royals bullpen has imploded a ton this year and Cain-Yelich-Thames-Shaw should all be a solid play even against the weak lefties out of the KC bullpen. Fire up the Brew crew exposure tonight. And yeah, Lorenzo Cain return to KC narrative. He’s not angry, but he will be energized. Texas Rangers … DeShields-Choo-Nomar-Gallo … I love all these guys against Triggs who we should pick on as much as we can and also look at the weak Oakland bullpen for upside. Good hitting conditions here tonight in what should
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 4/24 – FanDuel Early Slate
This article will cover the early only slate on FanDuel Weather and Park Factors Cubs at Indians – This game carries the most risk of a delay or postponement. I think the game plays, though and you shouldn’t be rostering pitchers here anyway, so a delay is no problem. Track this as we get closer to lock. *If you’re a subscriber and HAVE NOT joined our Slack chat I would recommend doing so. Tweet or DM me for more details and take advantage of all that we have to offer at FullTime DFS. Pitchers Jose Berrios (MIN) Clearly the top talent on the slate. The matchup is tough, though. I’m not looking here as I’m gonna look at some higher priced bats but he’s worth a play if you want that all-important strikeout upside. Yankee bats were hot last night and the lineup they put out today should be just pretty much the same as last night. Berrios is never a bad play but one that carries more risk than usual. Brandon McCarthy (ATL) McCarthy will be your chalk pitcher on this four-game slate. How scary is that? The ballpark is favorable to hitters as we know but McCarthy has been good getting a good amount of groundballs and staying out of trouble for the most part. Outside of last night’s explosion, mainly against the Braves shitty bullpen. McCarthy pitches well here. Tyler Mahle (CIN) If you want to go down a bit in salary, consider Mahle, a young prospect for the Reds who has looked really good in two starts this season (Brewers and Cubs) and suspect in two others (Cardinals and Pirates). The Braves don’t strike out much and have been running hot seemingly since the start of the season, but they’re bound to cool off a bit here and Mahle, who limited the Brewers offense to just two earned runs in his last start in Milwaukee (Eric Thames’ two-run home run) is worth a play at his bargain salary. Favorite Stacks Indians The Indians offense returns home with a lineup full of studs that quite frankly haven’t been hitting for shit. Yonder Alonso is hot and a good value in a park that caters to left-handed hitters. It’s only a matter of time before the Indians bats wake up and against Tyler Chatwood and a bunch of mediocre middle relievers for the Cubs is as good a time as any. Kipnis, Lindor, Brantley, and Alonso are my top four bats here but they’ll cost you. Find some value with Bradley Zimmer and/or Tyler Naquin. Mariners – White Sox Hold on to your hats here, boys, as this game could go to the moon with two pitchers going that, are borderline major leaguers. Mariners – Chris Volstad draws the spot start for the White Sox, Volstad a guy that has bounced around for years is anything but an elite talent – breaking news, I know. The Mariner bats were quiet last night against Carson Fulmer, which, if you read my write up and my updates, had me a little scared off of the M’s. Not today, though. Cano, Seager, and Haniger are at the top for me. Segura is fine as well as Dee Gordon, but at short I prefer Frankie Lindor and I like other outfielders ahead of Gordon. White Sox – Marco Gonzales can’t get righties out and gives up a ton of hard contact to them. Abreu is a pretty easy plug in play and Davidson is worth a look but he can go yiketty twice or K three times, so beware of the tilt with him. I love Tim Anderson and Yolmer Sanchez hitting 1-2 for some value. Yoan Moncada has looked a lot better at the plate lately and has the advantage of being a switch hitter making bullpen matchups against him pretty mute. *I didn’t mention the Cubs here for a specific reason. I prefer a few of them as one-offs typically just because they’re usually pretty expensive and could get production from anywhere in the lineup, one of the reasons you don’t see me write-up the Yankees very often. Obviously, they have a fearsome lineup and are in play as a stack, but if I sit here and tell you to play all of the obvious bats am I really helping you? I’ll highlight some of the individual Cubs bats I like below. Sneaky Stack Twins In most cases on this short of a slate, the Twins wouldn’t be that sneaky and they’ll still draw some ownership. With most looking at the Indians-Cubs game and White Sox-Mariners game for bats in my opinion, the Twins should fly under the radar a bit. Dozier, Sano, Rosario, and Escobar are four bats I like against Sabathia. Hitters By Position *Consider these hitters to fill out your lineups, not necessarily as part of a stack. *Just to be clear because a few people have asked. You’re very rarely going to see me include players like Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, and Bryce Harper in this section of my articles. Those guys are obviously in play every day. If I’m going to tell you to play those guys, I’m just wasting your time. This section is for the not-so-obvious plays that I like and I’ll include reasoning behind them each and every day. Catcher Beef Castillo (CWS) – Hitting cleanup, really cheap. Mitch Garver (MIN) – Min-price, handles lefties well. First Base Freddie (ATL) – One of the few Braves I like here. Yonder Alonso (CLE) – Cheap, red-hot, lefties in Cleveland. Anthony Rizzo (CHC) – Good price in a good park for lefties. Second Base Javy Baez (CHC) – Tomlin has given up a lot of production to righties over his career and Baez is hitting everything leading the Cubs in home runs and RBI’s. Jason Kipnis (CLE) – Love his salary. Scooter (CIN) – One of the few bats that worry me against McCarthy. Third Base Kyle Seager (SEA) – All in on Seager at that price. Jose Ramirez (CLE) – Expensive but
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 4/23
UPDATES HIGHLIGHTED IN BLUE Weather and Park Factors All games play Athletics at Rangers – Temps in the 70’s, great hitting conditions. Cleveland at Baltimore – Temps in the low-60’s, wind blowing out to left at around nine miles per hour. San Diego at Colorado – Temps in the 70’s, best weather in a Coors game all season. *If you’re a subscriber and HAVE NOT joined our Slack chat I would recommend doing so. Tweet or DM me for more details and take advantage of all that we have to offer at FullTime DFS. Pitchers Carlos Carrasco (CLE) I’ve been on Cleveland pitchers this entire series and I’m not going to stop now. Carrasco, facing a mostly right-handed lineup, will have the upper hand as righties have just a .177 wOBA, 21 percent hard contact rate, and have a 48 percent ground ball rate. The Orioles, outside of Manny Machado, have not been dangerous this season, especially against right as they lead the league as a team in strikeout rate against righties. Carrasco has good history pitching in Camden Yards and against the Orioles and is a considerable option, even at his price tag. Seeing Baltimore’s lineup without Trey Mancini and with Tim Beckham leading off, I’m all in on Carrasco. Beckham strikes out a ridiculous 28.8 percent of his at-bats against righties. Outside of Manny Machado, the Orioles lineup is a hot pile of garbage with guys like Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, Danny Valencia, Anthony Santander, and Craig Gentry all in there. Gerrit Cole (HOU) Cole has been tremendous in all four starts this season going four innings in each. His strikeout rate his up with the best in the game, his groundball rate is off the charts, his O-swing percentage is great, and his swinging strike rate is the highest it’s ever been. There’s a lot to love about Cole, along with the fact that he’s pitching at home with is in his favor. The Angels offense has been dangerous at times, but after a weekend series at home having to fly to a new time zone without an off-day has me thinking they’ll be a bit sluggish. Temps in Houston are expected to reach the low-80’s and the roof is expected to be open. With Cole, $1,100 more than Carrasco tonight, Cole is an easy guy for me to fade. He should put forth a solid outing, but I don’t see him eclipsing Carrasco’s point total on FD. Same goes for DK where he is a whopping $12,600. *There’s honestly no reason for me to go with someone other than one of these guys on FanDuel. SP2 Options on DraftKings Mike Leake (SEA) Leake continues to putter along here. There is nothing exciting about this guy, and he wears a single-digit number as a pitcher (pet peeve). Anyway, Leake’s mediocrity has been good enough to make him a solid SP2 option tonight. Over his four-start, Leake has recorded 18.95, 7.05, 10.10, and 12.10 DraftKings points. Paired up with Carrasco or Cole he’s a fine option. Walker Buehler (LAD) Buehler is only on DK as he makes the start against the Marlins. In just his ninth game of his career, Buehler is worth an SP2 look on DK. The knock on Buehler is that he hasn’t gone deep overall in his three AAA starts. In his three outings, he has a total of 13 innings, but I get it. These teams baby the shit out of these pitchers so they don’t get hurt. I get it. Buehler’s numbers are impressive down there though with an 11.08 K/9, 29.6 percent K rate, and a 59 percent ground ball rate. Favorite Stacks Athletics at Rangers This game is sure to see some big-time offense from both sides with Matt Moore going for the Rangers and Trevor Cahill for the Athletics. Both pitched well in their last starts but I don’t see that trend continuing. Athletics – Khris Davis loves hitting in Texas. Lifetime at Globe Life Park, Davis has a .338 batting average, eight home runs, and seven double in 18 games. Jed Lowrie continues to be red-hot, Marcus Semien has had multiple hits in three of his last four games, and Matt Chapman has hit in three of his last four games. After a day off on Sunday, expect Matt Olson to be back in there hitting fifth tonight. He hits lefties well, Matt Moore has struggled with lefties his whole career and Olson has six hits in his last 14 at-bats. Value bats like Chad Pinder and Mark Canha are in play if in desirable spots in the lineup. On DK, the value of Jonathan Lucroy is tough to pass up. Matt Olson is hitting sixth, with Matt Chapman hitting fifth. Rangers – The Rangers bats are very boom or bust and they’ve been booming lately scoring 25 runs in their last five games. Nomar Mazara is still way underpriced on both sites in a good matchup and coming in hot with four hits in his last 11, including a double and a home run, and hits in seven of his last nine games. Shin-Soo Choo has five extra-base hits in his last five games, including three doubles and two home runs. Delino Deshields is back and just 2K on FD. He’s an easy piece to just throw in and will probably lead off. Rounding out the Texas bats that I like is Adrian Beltre, who has great numbers against Trevor Cahill and Joey Gallo. Astros The Astros exploded the other night against Giolito which we hadn’t seen to this point of the season. Back home facing a lefty that has trouble with righties, the Astros should put up a crooked number. George Springer has hit in six straight with five extra-base hits over that span. Carlos Correa has multiple hits in four of his last five games with a double and two home runs. Houston is still waiting for Alex Bregman to get going and he’s showing signs of life
MLB DFS Dongers Club – Mon 4/23
Cole, Carrasco, Coors Field, we’ve got it all on this Monday, April 23rd and I’m ready to give you my picks for tonights slate.
Sunday MLB Dongers Club
Two extra games on DK today for the MAIN slate Seattle @ Texas … Two pitchers who sometimes baffle hitters despite not being very good. Kyle Seager for the Mariners. Cubs @ Rockies … Noon start time at Coors. Auto fade. Quintana will pitch well Now onto the MAIN slate of games. WEATHER Rainy in Atlanta with kinda mediocre temps. Bummer. Major Bummer. Doubt this game plays since it’s a divisional game. PITCHING There’s a ton of nice pitching choices today. ACES & CHALK I’m not super high on having to go to this tier today because there’s some arms in the mid tier I like. I didn’t even write up Wheeler and Folty because of rain but I expect that game to be a pitchers duel if it does play. Corey Kluber … Rules are meant to be broken they say… Sure… But, I have rules. I avoid high priced ace’s on Sundays and I don’t pick on the Orioles when they’re at home on Sundays. That said, Klubot has owned Baltimore previously and this year just about everyone has owned Baltimore. I still think they’re gonna heat up here soon at home despite getting shutout yesterday by Clevinger. He’s your chalk SP1. And getting to face the likes of Craig Gentry, Chris Davis, Anthony Santander and Luis Sardinas. Outside of Manny and Jones 3-4 he’s really got no issue with this lineup… Tough fade, but here we go! Lance McCullers … Here is your chalk pivot off Kluber. I think between him and Severino everyone will jump on Lance coming off a massive 11 strikeout performance in Seattle and against a White Sox team that cannot hit anything right now. Luis Severino … I really like Sev as a pitcher — a lot. But what bothers me is that Boone has not let him throw more than 94 pitches yet this season in 4 games. When Severino is off it’s with the walks so the slight hiccup here and he has a high risk of not returning enough for his increased price tag. I expect him to pitch well but I’m not messing with that risk until I see him top 100 pitches. MID TIER – Love this tier on Sunday’s Nick Pivetta … My guy versus my Sunday guy (T-Williams). But the deal here is simple. Philly is good. Pittsburgh is not. They’re offensive regression has been obvious for a week now and the Phillies are absolutely on a roll at home right now. If this game was in PIT, I would go Williams. Both these kids pitch much better at home and today is Pivetta day for me. Luis Castillo … The Castillo people keep hyping him up as being dominant while the anti-Castillo people keep hoping that the wheels are going to fall off. The truth is, neither has really happened. He has just been right down the middle good so far this season. My initial thought was no — he just saw the Cards — then I remembered he didn’t face them (dynamite analysis there!). I love attacking the Cardinals on Sunday’s and quite frankly they’re not exploding hot right now. Ozuna and Carpenter are way off right now and I think Castillo will work around Pham. Mikolas will be chalk on the other side as an SP2 on DK, so look at Castillo to leverage against that. FADES Severino … I think Boone is babying him. Mikolas … Castillo! TOP TEAMS You guys seem to automatically jump down to the last team I list as a sneaky play and ride them 100%. Don’t forget that I rarely auto stack teams, and the teams listed here first are ones you really should assume will be in play first and then the sneaky one is the lower owned play of the day. Yankees … All the Giancarlo and Gary I can handle today. Didi sneaky. Good temps, no wind issues and today is the day I wrote down on my white board last Thursday. The lineup looks really good today with Didi moving up to #3 and then Stanton and Sanchez back to back 4-5. I expect Judge or Didi to draw some walks today which will set up Stanton and Sanchez for a huge day offensively. Andujar and Torres back to back 7/8 will be interesting to watch as they turn the lineup over and get it back to the top. Aaron Hicks chalk leading off. Phillies … Sorry T-Will but I gotta rock my kids at home and against that atrocious Pirates bullpen. Indians … I honestly don’t love-love them today and will be light on them despite the matchup against Cashner. I nailed Yonder-Ramirez-Gomes yesterday. Brantley and Kipnis the main guys I like today and Lindor is at a weak position outside of Didi. SNEAKY Twins @ Rays … Despite facing Phil Hughes I think the Rays are quietly low owned today as most will flock over to the Tigers against Skoglund. Phil Hughes is bad normally. Hughes in a day game is atrocious. Despite being in a dome, I am fine picking on the Hughes day game splits. CJ Cron batting 2nd makes me want to puke, so all the Carlos Gomez and Brad Miller folks. Jesus Sucre on a Sunday too. Why not? Meanwhile for the Twins they’re getting the extra road AB locked in and also facing a bullpen that’s really bad and going quickly towards nowhere. Love the lefties against Chirinos who I don’t think is that good POSITIONAL FAVORITES CATCHER Gary Sanchize Jesus Sucre J.T. Realmuto FIRST BASE Kendry(s) Morale(s) In Play Run(s) Carlos Santana LORD CHESLOR OF THE CUTHBERTS – You can play him at Third on DK. Brad Miller SECOND BASE Jason Kipnis Cesar Hernandez Whit Merrifield THIRD BASE Miguel Andujar Jose Ramirez – Position is weak IMO. He’s in the best “spot”. Scott Kingery – Listed at SS on FD which is HIGHLY ANNOYING. Cmon FanDuel, move him to
MLB DFS: Pitching Breakdown – 4/22
Top Tier Corey Kluber (CLE) Kluber is often at the top of the food chain on days that he pitches and today is no different. He’s the clear-cut top option for me considering the floor and upside he brings to the table day in and day out. The Orioles strike more than any other team in baseball against righties (28 percent) and own one of the lowest team ISO’s and team wOBA’s against righties along with a minuscule seven percent walk rate. Kluber’s metrics are off the charts. He’s pitched into the at least the seventh inning in each of his four starts (6.2, 8, 7, 8 innings respectively) and has 33 strikeouts while only walking six. Aiding his 10.01 K/9 and 30.3 percent K rate is his 11.2 swinging strike rate and 29.5 percent O-swing rate. When opponents have been making contact against Kluber, 43 percent of the time that contact has resulted in a groundball. Expect a dominant performance by the Indians’ ace this afternoon. Luis Severino (NYY) The “1B” option for me today is Severino taking on the Blue Jays. The Jays lineup is dangerous at times with solid team wOBA and ISO numbers, however, they are striking out 24 percent of their at-bats against righties. Severino has been electric thus far in 2018 with a 10.50 K/9, 30 percent K rate and just an eight percent walk rate. He hasn’t allowed a home run and has generated a 49.1 percent ground ball rate. With a 31 percent O-swing percentage and 12.7 percent swinging strike rate, Severino figures to be economical and pitch deep into this game against a Jays team who outside of Justin Smoak lack any consistent firepower. *If you’re a subscriber and HAVE NOT joined our Slack chat I would recommend doing so. Tweet or DM me for more details and take advantage of all that we have to offer at FullTime DFS. Mid Tier and Value Options Lance McCullers (HOU) The knock on McCullers is that he doesn’t pitch deep enough into games, he wastes too many pitches, and that he gets into trouble with walks. McCullers will look to take advantage of a somewhat impatient White Sox team sees around 3.9 pitches per plate appearance as a team and walk just 7.9 percent of the time as a team against right-handed pitching. Some of McCullers’ numbers are staggering and quite frankly among some of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He has a ridiculous 14.57 K/9 and 37.4 percent K rate, third-highest among starters behind only Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. His O-swing percentage is an outrageous 33.2 percent and his swinging strike rate comes in at 14.5 percent, 10th-highest amongst starters. He’s allowing a hard-contact rate of 34.8 percent, which is a bit higher than we’d like to see but that number is negated by his league-leading 65 percent ground ball rate. After three sub-par performances, including one on opening day in which he was pulled early because AJ Hinch is… well, he’s AJ Hinch. He was rolling in that game going 5.1 innings with 10 strikeouts and just one walk. His last start was about as good as it gets as he dominated the Mariners in Seattle going seven innings, allowing just one run (a first-inning solo home run), while striking out 11 and walking just one. If you’re looking to drop down from Kluber or Severino’s hefty price tags today, McCullers is your best bet. Luis Castillo (CIN) Castillo is one of the bright up and coming pitchers in the game and one of the few bright spots for the dumpster fire Reds. Don’t let his surface numbers fool you, this kid is good. Very good. He rocks a 50 percent ground ball rate, a low 29 percent hard contact rate, and a solid 21.9 percent K rate. His O-swing percentage of 33.8 and swinging strike rate of 15.2 percent are among the best in the league amongst starting pitchers. The righty has dealt with a lot of bad luck thus far in his first four starts posting an unsustainable .281 BABIP which is due to regress steadily moving forward. For reference, Castillo’s BABIP last season was .241. With the Cardinals offense not showing any signs of consistency against righties with a 23.7 percent K rate and the 10th-lowest team ISO at .156, Castillo shapes up as a top-level value play on FanDuel and great SP2 option on DK. Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) Folty has been great in three of his four starts this season, two against the Phillies and one against the Nationals. The Mets have a ton of strikeouts in their lineups among their regulars which will heighten Folty’s 10.97 K/9 and 28.9 K rate. Jay Bruce (21.8 percent K rate), Todd Frazier (20.6 percent), Amed Rosario (29.4 percent), Michael Conforto (25 percent), Yoenis Cespedes (37 percent), and Jose Lobaton (43.8 percent) highlight the Mets’ struggles with making contact. Folty’s walk rate is a bit high at 10 percent, but he’s been able to negate that to a degree with a 47 percent ground ball rate which is up from last years 39.4 percent due in part to Folty’s increased use of his slider which he’s throwing 26.3 percent of the time. David Price (BOS) Price has seen his salary drop to $7,900 on FD but is still priced way up there at $9,400 on DK. I prefer him on FD today against the A’s who are a fearsome offense but do have some trouble with left-handed pitching. As a team, they have a 24.3 percent K rate against southpaws and just a combined .124 ISO. Price has started off well this season after a disaster of a year in 2017. He hasn’t been the dominant ace that we’ve seen in the past, but he’s working his way in the right direction. He has a good park in his favor and has a 21 percent K rate to go along with a respectable 43 percent ground ball rate. Price has had success pitching
MLB DFS – Dongers Club – 4/21
WEATHER … Seattle @ Texas – Texas storms rolling through, game will play. PITCHING Again we have a ton of solid arms tonight. Worth paying up for 2 of them on DK IMO. Chris Sale … He doesn’t suck. Dynamite analysis as usual here….. Oakland is the 2nd best team so far vs LHP and while I trust Sale anywhere, I love the guys below here too much to force Sale in tonight, but he’s been in worst spots and dealt before. Dallas Keuchel … Facing the third worst team in the league against LHP this year. While the Chi-Sox have some guys who over the course of the season I love to roster, this is not the ideal spot. Not against a GB pitcher in less than 50 degree temps as well. Keuchel’s price and expected production make him a guy I like tonight. James Paxton … Some weather concerns here but Paxton should silence these pathetic Ranger bats. Stephen Strasburg … Tough to pick on the Dodgers in my mind tonight, but he’s looked great this year and has pitched well versus them. I think he is safe but doesn’t exceed anyone else tonight. SNEAKY ‘F IT’ ARM … Jose Urena … FIRE EM UP KIDS! Urena is the darling in my eye as an SP2 or punt option today. The Brewers still strike out enough and the fish need a long start today. Urena won’t be on anyones radar but if you guys want a punt / darkhorse. He’s my guy to go against the Brewers chalk who I dont like tonight for some weird reason.. FADES Jacob deGrom … Grow the f’n hair back…. CHALK STACKS Mariners … Colon can’t throw another No-No. Seager/Cano and some random guy at the bottom of the order who is a giant douche. Astros … Facing a 6’6 pitcher and one of the worst staffs in the league right now Angels … Really warm in LA and facing a lefty disaster. SNEAKY STACK OF THE NIGHT Freddie Free Bird Freeman Ozzie Oz-man Commeth Albies Enter Sandman Inciarte Danzig Mother Swanson This is my favorite game of the night.. FADES Coors Field – Players too priced up, dont expect another game like last night Brewers – I think Urena keeps em quiet tonight. POSITIONAL TARGETS CATCHERS Jose Lobaton Austin Hedges Christian Vasquez All three homer…. FIRST BASE Goldschmidt Happens Eric Thames Brandon Belt Freddie Freeman SECOND BASE Javy Baez (4700) vs Jose Altuve (4400) … Everyone will just pay $300 more for Baez in better hitting conditions, however I strongly feel Altuve has a good game tonight and he’s the stud I’d pivot to here. Robinson Cano Ozzie Albies Howie Kendrick THIRD BASE Kyle Seager – Position is weak. Brian Anderson Cory SPangenberg – Longshot punt SHORTSTOP Dansby Swanson Jean Segura Andrelton Simmons OUTFIELD – Tier 1 Trout, Mike – Mr. Saturday Night Harper, Bryce – Love him vs Lefties especially trash ones like Ryu with great hitting conditions. Way lower owned than Trout. Mookie Betts – Hottest team and hitter and nobody will have him. Michael Conforto – The whole world is waiting for his HR game. OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Christian Yelich Wil Myers David Peralta & AJ Pollock – Either go all in DBacks or fade. Preston Tucker OUTFIELD – Tier 3 Ender Inciarte Matt Kemp Stephen Piscotty Brandon Nimmo Ben Gamel DONGERS CLUB Michael Conforto – OF – Chairman Brandon Belt – 1B Mike Trout – OF Jose Lobaton – C Ender Inciarte – OF Dansby Swanson – SS Kyle Seager – 3B Bryce Harper – OF BONUS ………………… Brian Anderson – 3B
