MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 4/30
UPDATES IN BLUE Weather and Park Factors All games play Royals at Red Sox – Chance for a delay with rain early in the day. Rockies at Cubs – Temps in the mid-60’s with wind blowing out to left-center at 14 mph. Dodgers at Diamondbacks – Roof should be open. Yankees at Astros – Roof should be open with temps in the low to mid 70’s and wind blowing to left a bit. Pitchers Jameson Taillon (PIT) Taillon faces a Nats team that is just 3-7 in their last ten and is trotting out a lineup that is missing some key bats near the top of their lineup. Taillon’s last two starts have been dreadful after starting off the season looking like a breakout year was coming, which could still happen if he can get through this little tough stretch. He’s getting a ton of groundballs at a 54.8 percent rate and has a good enough 22 percent K rate. His salary on both sites is a bargain in my eyes as Taillon will get back on track against the Nats tonight. Jake Arrieta (PHI) Arrieta has been a stabilizing force thus far in a Phillies rotation that has had some ups and downs. He’s been extremely solid allowing just five earned runs in 24.2 innings of work. The former Cy Young Award winner is generating ground balls at a rate of 63 percent, allowing hard contact just 13 percent of the time and has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts. The park in Miami will favor him and so will the garbage lineup that the Marlins send out there. Arrieta is a play for me on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Charlie Morton (HOU) Morton had a rough outing in his last start allowing almost as many walks (5) as he had all season leading up to that start (6). The Yankees are dangerous to target but Morton has been really good and the Yankees are dealing with having to fly in from Los Angeles after concluding their weekend series last night on Sunday Night Baseball with the Angels only to start a series with the defending world champs. Fun. Morton is getting ground balls at a 59 percent rate and striking batters out at a 29.4 percent clip. He’s been rock solid outside of his last start and I have no reason to think that he won’t be good tonight. Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) The Royals don’t hit lefties well at all with just a team wOBA of .308 and ISO of .139. I’ve never been high on Rodriguez but his salary on both sites is attractive if you want to get some big bats in. E-Rod has won his last three starts going at least six innings in each totaling 16 strikeouts and just six earned runs allowed. He’s pitching at home and has a 24 percent K rate to go along with just a 27 percent hard-hit rate against. Rodriguez shapes up as a great value option that should draw some ownership. SP2 Options on DraftKings Jake Faria (TB) Faria got into some trouble with walks in his last outing, but his two prior starts were very solid going 11.1 innings, striking out 13, and allowing just two earned runs. The Tigers post pedestrian numbers as a team against right-handed pitching and perhaps that stat that will aid Faria the most is their walk rate. As a team, they walk just 7.4 percent of their plate appearance against righties, the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Sonny Gray (NYY) Sonny has looked like absolute shit over his last three starts. Clearly, he’s in a funk. Here’s the deal, though. No one will roster him, and I mean NO ONE. The Yankees played last night in L.A. but there is NO CHANCE IN HELL Sonny wasn’t in Houston already so that’s not an issue. The Astros played a home series over the weekend and the bats got going a bit, especially Jose Altuve. I’m not helping Sonny’s case much in saying this, but the Astros lineup is potentially going to carry them to the World Series for the second year in a row. I feel like Sonny bounces back tonight, though where we least expect it. It’ll be a big-time bonus if Austin Romine catches who is Sonny’s preferred catcher, which is possible with Sanchez due for a rest/DH game. Pitchers to Fade Jeff Samardzija (SF) Umm. No. A chalky Jeff Samardzija? Absolutely not. Definitely not for me. Go read the Dongers Club if you want someone to give you Samardzija as a play to spend your money on. Jon Lester (CHC) Warmer weather, a lineup that hasn’t hit lefties overall but with guys like Arenado, Blackmon, and Story they’re still dangerous. Oh, and the wind is pumping out to left-center. Lester will be chalky, like Samardzija and I want NO PART of either of these overpaid frauds. Favorite Stacks Brewers This just in. Brandon Finnegan is awful. The park is in favor of the bats here as the Reds and Brewers lock up in a division series where offense should be leading the charge. Ryan Braun kills in the Great American Ballpark. Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich are guys I want at the top of the order and Travis Shaw more than likely cleaning up right behind Braun. It doesn’t get much easier than this, people. This isn’t sneaky. The Brewers will be one of the higher-owned stacks on the slate but Finnegan and the Reds bullpen will get torched and the Brewers will think they’re playing softball. Diamondbacks Love the Dbacks against Ross Stripling as they return home to warm weather and an open roof. David Peralta will be ready to rock after striking out four times against GIO GONZALEZ on Sunday (could you imagine doing that and looking yourself in the mirror??? Gio Gonzalez???). I love Goldy and A.J. Pollock here and can’t wait for Jake Lamb to come back.
Daily Diamond & Dongers Club MLB DFS PODCAST
MLB Podcast for Monday, April 30th
Sunday MLB DFS Dongers Club – Apr 29
Sunday Dongers Club from Steve Renner (SDCHICKENS)
Saturday Night Dongers Club – 4/28
Make sure you check out Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond which has the main slate covered in it as well… He was sober when he wrote it up — unlike me. https://fulltimefantasy.com/mlb-dfs-rob-geriaks-daily-diamond-4-28/ WEATHER All games play PITCHING Lance McCullers … Rostering a chalk pitcher against Oakland who rarely will go deeper than 5 and 2/3 IP seems like a massive trap to me. But hes the top arm today if you wanna just be a donkey and take the top arm and move on. Johnny Cueto .. I’m waiting to see how the early game plays out, but so far so good for the GIants taking the 2nd game of this DH. He’s my guy LONGSHOT Eric Skoglund … Everyone picks on him, but tonight he will shut down the White Sox and makes a nice SP2 CATCHERS Chris Iannetta Salvador Perez JT Realmuto FIRST BASE Matt Olson Marwin Gonzalez Miggy SECOND BASE Jed Lowrie Matt Carpenter Asdrubal Cabrera THIRD BASE Christian Villanueva Nolan Arenado Martin Prado SHORTSTOP Carlos Correa Manny Machado Freddy Galvis OUTFIELD – T1 Mike Trout George Springer Khris Davis Trey Mancini OUTFIELD – T2 Justin Upton Jose Pirela Brett Gardner Tommy Pham OUTFIELD – T3 Jacoby Jones Jorge Soler Matt Joyce STACKS Angels … Tanaka is always due for a blow up and the weather here should play well for Trout-Upton to smack him around Yanks … Just a hunch they get to Richards tonight which is why I didnt list him Oakland … Roof is open in Houston and the chalk arm is Lance tonight, good leverage stack with Olson, Davis and Lowrie. Tigers … Despite geting shut down last night by Tillman, the Tigers remain a team to look at today. Get weird with guys like Jacoby Jones and Jose Iglesias DONGERS CLUB Mike Trout – OF – Chairman Christian Villanueva – 3B JT Realmuto – C Trey Mancini – OF George Springer – OF Jed Lowrie – 2B Jose Iglesias – SS Marwin Gonzalez – 1B BONUS …….. Khris Davis – OF
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 4/28
Let’s do this a little different, just today. Instead of loading you guys with stats/data and a bunch of acronyms let’s keep it light, simple, and straightforward. Sound good? I thought so. Don’t worry, We’ll get back to the normal book-type write-ups on Monday! YES! *Important note. There are two doubleheaders today, slates mixed around all over the place between the two sites and general Saturday mayhem on top of everything else. I’ve outlined all of my preferred plays for the entire day of games (16) and added which slate I like these players on, based on the information I have (i.e. which pitchers are pitching which game of their doubleheader.) Weather and Park Factors All games play Brewers at Cubs (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) – Temps in the mid-40’s with wind blowing in from left at 14 miles per hour. The wind plays a significant role in Wrigley Field. Rays at Red Sox (Early) – Temps touching the low 70’s with wind blowing out to left at eight to ten miles per hour. Mariners at Indians (Early) – Wind blowing in from left at 14 miles per hour. Tigers at Orioles (Main) – Steady wind blowing in from left at around 10 to 12 miles per hour. Pitchers Lance McCullers (HOU) (Main) McCullers has been good in all but one start this season, a road start against the Twins where walks were a major issue. McCullers is pitching at home tonight against a dangerous A’s team but McCullers’ strikeout upside is through the roof here and throughout his career, he’s been a dominant pitcher. He’s allowed two or less earned runs in four of his five starts and has gone six innings and seven innings respectively in each of his last two outings. I prefer McCullers on FD at his sub-9K salary on Saturday’s main slate. David Price (BOS) (Early) Price faces a suddenly red-hot Rays team that has won seven straight and averaged over seven runs per game over that stretch. Price has shut down the Rays twice this season going 14 innings, seven in each start, and allowing just seven hits and no earned runs. Tampa is due to cool off, it’s just the facts, people and Price will handle them today. The former Ray draft pick is another guy I prefer on FD rather than DK. Alex Wood (LAD) (Main) Derek Carty’s favorite pitcher in the world will start game one of the Dodgers-Giants doubleheader in San Fran today. The Giants offense has struggled overall but especially against left-handed pitching with a team K rate of 25.4 percent, ISO of .137, and wOBA of .281. In his first start of the season, Wood shut the Giants down going eight innings and allowing just one hit while striking out five. The lefty is in play on both sites for me as he’s sub-9K on FD and DK. Carson Fulmer (CWS) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) The talented prospect bounced back in his last outing going six strong allowing just two earned runs against the Mariners. There’s no doubt that this is a value option on both FD ($5,700) and DK ($4,500) against a Royals team that features a few dangerous bats in Moose, Salvy, Whit, and recently Jorge Soler. Lucas Duda has sucked lately so no need to worry about that fuckin’ guy (ok, I’m bitter). In all seriousness, I love Fulmer’s stuff and have been following him since his days back at Vanderbilt. I can live with taking a chance with him, especially on FD’s short rake-grabbing “very early” slate. What the hell is that?? 2 P.M. Eastern is “very early”? Sure. German Marquez (COL) (Main) Ok, let’s get this straight. The Marlins are terrible. Their lineup is dogshit. I don’t care what they did to the greatest pitcher I’ve ever seen the other night, that shit happens. They are god awful. Marquez has not exactly been confusing anyone with Nolan Ryan here to start the season but he’s cheap on both sites, is pitching in a great park, and should get some offense behind him to pick up a win. Walker Buehler (LAD) (Early) If I hear another Ferris Buehler joke I’m gonna freak out. Walker will pitch game two of this doubleheader with the Giants and could, COULD see a lineup full of scrubs, which let’s be honest, can’t be much worse offensively than some of the guys that we regularly see Bruce Bochy trot out there. Walker is good. Really fucking good. I don’t care if he pitched against the Marlins in his first start. Seeing Dave “Training Wheels” Roberts let him throw 89 pitches in his first start opened my eyes after I fully expected Buehler to get pulled after 65 pitches in four innings with Robert’s saying “hell of a job their kid” or some sentimental bullshit. He didn’t do that and it makes me like Buehler that much more tonight against a Giants lineup that can’t hit in a good pitchers park, especially at night. Favorite Stacks Angels (Main) I have a theory on Masahiro Tanaka. He’s a fucking fraud. This concludes my analysis… Ok, I’ll go a bit further here. Tanaka is one of these guys like Michael Pineda was that is either dominant or a nightmare-disaster. There is no in-between here. In his last start, he allowed one earned run, in the two starts prior to that he allowed 11 earned runs. That’s not good. These Tanaka people baffle me, much like the Pineda, Rich Hill, and Kevin Gausman people. Tanaka especially sucks when Gary Sanchez catches him, which I would suspect will be the case as the Yankees will want all of their bats in there against Garrett Richards. In 33 starts spanning over 193.1 innings pitched with Sanchez “catching”, Tanaka has a 4.47 ERA, 45 walks, 191 hits, and 38 home runs allowed. Good god. Give me all of the Mike Trout who lives to hit the low ball, Justin
MLB DFS – Saturday Early
Saturday afternoon Baseball should be exciting and relaxing, but once again we have two different sets of slates between FD and DK because FD insists upon reducing the # of games on their weekend slates. I honestly don’t think they’re getting that much more rake out of this, they’re just clueless in my mind, but thats enough ranting. The 3 games at 2PM are on the FULL EARLY slate on DraftKings where as they are on their own slate on FanDuel, these games today include: Cincinnati @ Minnesota — Everyone. All the hitters. Chicago @ Kansas City — White Sox & Whit/Salvy Milwaukee @ Chicago — Pitchers With the exception fo the Brewers and Cubs which is in sub 50 degree temps and heavy winds IN, this is a pretty good selection of games for hitting and there’s really no pitcher to love on the selection of these early games but on FanDuel you can expect Jose Quintana to be the chalk arm. 4PM Slate Analysis WEATHER All games play PITCHING Carlos Carrasco … Carrasco on the road is an ACE, at home he’s just a Good Guy. 9600 on FD is still affordable but $12.4 on DK is too much. This is a FD only selection for me. because on DK I can roll out Quintana for 7600. Jeremy Hellickson … You will see the name then realize the opponent and run away laughing. But Wherever this kid has pitched (Tampa, ‘Zona, Philly) he’s always been more comfortable pitching in front of a home crowd with a 3.87 ERA at home versus a 4.38 ERA on the road. While that’s not a HUGE reason to lock him in, add in that his career ERA in day games is 3.37 versus 4.437 at night. There’s a time and a place where we play Hellickson and it’s home day games. There’s no stud SP that I feel you have to lock in today and Hellickson and the Nats are the sleeping dragon that nobody is touching today against Patrick Corbin. David Price … I said there was no stud SP on this slate, and I meant it. Price though is gonna get a ton of run support and I think folks are scared of the Rays 7 game win streak. Guess what, that’s gonna end today. Price is someone I’m kinda afraid to roll out for the third time against Tampa this year, however lefties have really dominated them (sans Pomeranz who sucks) this year. Jose Quintana (DK) … Mainly a DK play to pair with Hellickson today. Good weather for pitching in Wrigley field today and he seems to love picking on the Brewers. CATCHERS Russ Martin Robinson Chirinos Sandy Leon Not much love for going here on FD today with other spots being deeper. Love Martin and Leon as part of Jays and Sox stacks and Chirinos is one guy who scares me off Garcia…. But he might sit. FIRST BASE Hanley Ramirez Justin Smoak Joey Votto – Heater anyone? Joey Votto has turned it on, amazingly after his manager was fired. Shocker. Pretty sure we all saw that one coming. He’ll be the chalk on both sites where he’s applicable. Hanley is my favorite guy here today. SECOND BASE Yoan Moncada Jason Kipnis Whit Merrifield Robbie Cano I pray that Moncada gets to lead off, in which case he’s lock button THIRD BASE Matt Davidson Kyle Seager Jose Ramirez Yangervis Solarte This might be reaching the point where it finally ends, but Matt Davidson’s numbers in Kauffman Stadium are insane. He makes Mookie Betts in Camden Yards look like nothing…. SHORTSTOP Francisco Lindor Aledmys Diaz Jurickson Profar Xander Bogaerts Position feels thin to me today and I wanna see more out of Xander before I spend up for him (look, his price magically fixed itself on FD). But with me loving Boston so much, I wouldn’t hate rolling him out today. Filling this position in last. OUTFIELD – T1 Curtis Granderson Mookie Betts JD Martinez Harper, Bryce By now you should know that I am a fan of Harper Bryce vs LHP. He’s been cold, but worth buying into pre him fixing the stepping out issues. OUTFIELD – T2 Teoscar Hernnadez Andrew Benintendi Michael A. Taylor Max Kepler & Eddie Rosario Keler and Eddie Rosario are two Twins in this tier that we gotta look at on FD in the early early slate. For DK though they’re not making the cut ahead of Boston for me today. OUTFIELD – T3 Scott Schebler / Jesse Winker / Adam Duvall Chris Taylor Jon Jay STACKS TWINS … They’re gonna drop 10+ runs today IMO. Love Sano/Rosario/Kepler part of the order. RED SOX … The Sox and Rays have met quite a bit so far this season and the Rays have hard a hard time getting Hanley Ramirez out. He sticks out to me today along with the rest of the Boston big guns today in Fenway w/ 69 degree temps and a slight breeze out to the monster. Love Boston today and will have them everywhere. Hanley and JD are the two I feel I really want today with a hot Mookie as well. Chirinos’ walks are increasing and his K’s are decreasing as teams see him more. REDS … We are getting a glimpse of what the Reds would be like if they played in the American League. A lineup that has a bunch of slap hitters who can keep the line moving when they get up against a bad string of pitchers and don’t have to worry about the automatic pitcher out. BLUE JAYS … It’s time for ole Bartolo Colon to get rocked like everyone thinks he should. Russ Martin has to be licking his chops at the thought of finally having someone he can take yard. DONGERS CLUB Hanley Ramirez – 1B – New Chairman Russ Martin – C Robinson Cano – 2B Aledmys Diaz – SS Adam Duvall – OF Max Kepler –
Dongers Club: Fri 4/27
WEATHER Tampa @ Boston only PPD risk in my mind. PITCHING Dominant slate for pitching tonight as we have a TON of affordable mid range guys which makes these high priced studs a little less tempting. That said, there’s also some strong bats that are cheap on FD tonight so that brings these guys back into play there. I’m looking more in the mid-range on DK Corey Kluber … FD only where he is only 11.2. No thanks on DK, I can beat that value with other arms tonight and against a Mariners team who hits well in Progressive is a spot I can deal with fading Klubot tonight on DK. FanDuel has all-stars listed at 2k, so he’s in play there. Jake deGrom … Fine, he doesn’t need the hair to ball out anymore. I think it might be time to go pick on these Padres again even though Hosmer might be back int he lineup tonight. Zack Godley .. He belongs in this tier, he is that good despite a rough game last time out. He’ll do better tonight against the Nationals who are ice cold and coming back from a west coast trip. Suck it Carty. MID TIER Marcus Stroman …Now everybody… Have you heard…. If youre setting a lineup. Then Stro’s the word……………..His price on both sites is just criminal, but we don’t need to go that cheap — that’s not the reason. The reason is simply getting to face a Rangers team who seems to lose a key piece every other day and has a lineup that does pack some pop but is complete trash so far this year. Tyler Anderson … I don’t trust the Marlins to keep up what they did against Kershaw tonight and I doubt ANYONE will go to this obvious spot on a large slate after what the Marlins did to Kershaw. There will be plenty of run support here for Anderson and he makes a fantastic SP2. LONGSHOT OF THE NIGHT Mike Fiers ………Wound up, can’t stack, can’t do anything but win lotsa money, Oh, since I played the longshot…. I tell you the truth… Ca-ca-a-Cashin with the arms all week, baby…. You’re driving me crazy…. Come on, little pitcher, come on now……. FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIERS, SMOKIN THESE ORIOLES FIERS, STRIKES IN THE CAMDEN….. FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEIIERS, STRIKES ARE A RISIN…….. FIEEEERS, OH SMOKE STACK OF CASH LIGHTING!!!!!!!!!!! POSITIONAL FAVORITES CATCHERS Victor Martinez Yadier Molina Salvy Perez This feels like it’s a night for the old veterans. OK, so Salvy isnt THAT old yet, but he’s in the veteran status club. Not a deep position today. FIRST BASE Miguel Cabrera Freddie Freeman Joey Votto Lucas Duda First base is really deep and I didn’t even cover the options from the Cards/Pirates game which is one I really like tonight as well. Look at Duda for some value and Votto/Freeman for spending up on. Miggy loves Camden. He’s my #1 today here. SECOND BASE Whit Merrifield DJ LeMahieu Jason Kipnis THIRD BASE Eugenio Suarez Nolan Arenado Moose Tacos Geno is back and only 2k on FD. What a joke. SHORTSTOP Carlos Correa Paul DeJong Jose Peraza OUTFIELD – Tier 1 Nick Castellanos Sir Thomas Pham Starling Marte Yoenis Cespedes OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Aaron Judge Jesse Winker Charlie Blackmon OUTFIELD – Tier 3 Steve Pearce Nick Williams Adam Duvall STACKS CARDINALS … Annual Cards and Pirates series where I stack it for no reason other than these teams play high scoring series. Added bonus is the Cardinals have a ton of sneaky power that can actually translate into PNC park and the Pirates are rolling out Steven Brault. Never trust a Steven. They’re fucktards who you cant trust like Scott Stevens. Stephen’s are better. TIGERS … Miggy want homer. Miggy due for multi-HR series. Oh, guess who else is due for a law of avg’s homer? Victor Martinez. Yeah. Him. Lock and load. Miggy-VMart-Castellanos. I refuse to not play against the Orioles at home all year. REDS … They’re awake and Eugenio Suarez is back and criminally under priced on FanDuel. Hey guys, maybe we shouldn’t fucking have a potential all-star player listed at 2k MIN PRICE. WHAT THE *)@#($*)@(#$ ARE YOU GUYS DOING OVER THERE? SERIOUSLY. Congrats on releasing the nascar product, that’s awesome, we now have something to donkey away our Sunday afternoons with while we kick back some 6 packs and stuff our hands down our pants but can we not do this stupid pointless stuff with the guys who go on the DL? Who the hell is writing your algo’s over there? Derek Carty’s private pet robot who comb’s his fucking hair every 3 hours so that he can stare in the mirror and tell himself that people actually like him when in fact all the RT’s he gets are from fake accounts that he had a robot generate to make it look like people actually thank him for helping him in DFS by stacking against his pitcher? What the fuck are you doing? WHY IS EUGENIO SUAREZ 2K? WHY? WHY IS XANDER BOGAERTS 2K??? WHY??? WHY ARE THE CAROLINA PANTHERS DRAFTING MORE WIDE RECEIVERS WHEN THEY HAVE NO QUARTERBACK WHO CAN THROW THE BALL? WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE??!?!?!??! ……………… oh yeah, I like Votto-Friday Night Lights-Geno and Duvall…. RH power bats in Target. SNEAKY STACKS Because who doesn’t like a tout that lists 150 stacks?? It’s all the rage…. ROCKIES … I only play Jose Urena when there’s a Big Swing $1500 entry tournament. Otherwise, we stack against him. Logic folks. OK, no seriously. Nobody will be on the Rockies going into Miami but I love playing them on the road despite people looking at their overall #’s and thinking they cant hit on the road. Newsflash, Blackmon is crushing away from Coors and Nolan will hit about 50 doubles tonight in a 87-3 rout by the Rockies (**** DISCLAIMER: THESE NUMBERS ARE SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED ******). Nolan & Blackmon stud contrarian stack here with
MLB DFS: Pitching Breakdown – 4/27
Top Tier Jacob deGrom (NYM) deGrom has been incredible to start the year for the Mets in all areas on the mound. Jake has an 11.25 K/9 and 31.5 percent K rate with a minuscule 6.3 percent walk rate. When allowing contact, deGrom is inducing a 48.7 percent ground ball rate while allowing hard contact just 23 percent of the time. With an opponent’s batting average of just .212 and a BAPIP of .303, believe it or not, there is room for improvement here with deGrom. I mean with these types of numbers it’s hard to believe that he has dealt with some misfortune, but the facts are the facts. Much of his success is derived from his ability to get hitters to chase and get swings and misses. deGrom’s 0-swing rate is 32.9 percent and his swinging strike rate is 14.5 percent, which is seventh-best amongst starting pitchers. The Padres present a favorable matchup for deGrom in a multitude of areas. First off, the park is favorable to him and outside of one miserable start in PETCO two years ago, he’s been virtually unhittable in San Diego. The Padres sport the highest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at a 28.4 percent clip. Some of their regulars that go down by way of the K often include Jose Pirela (24.7 percent), Freddy Galvis (25.8), Hunter Renfroe (29), Franchy Cordero (34.5), Austin Hedges (34), Christian Villanueva (28.9), and Eric Hosmer, who should be back tonight (28.8). They have the sixth-lowest team ISO at .129 and the seventh-worst wOBA at .295 against righties. All signs point to a dominating performance from Jake tonight and he’s at the top of the food chain for me on the mound. Corey Kluber (CLE) When I wrote about Kluber last week I mentioned that on most days he’s the top pitcher on the board to roster. Not so much today with deGrom in a great spot, but Kluber is still Kluber and able to throw out a great start against anyone, even a dangerous offensive team like the Mariners who have been hitting the ball well as a team over the last week. The Mariners do, however, have some guys in their lineup that strikeout a bit including Mike Zunino at 31 percent, Mitch Haniger at 24 percent and Dee Gordon at 22.9 percent. Kluber will be looking to bounce back after an uncharacteristic struggle against the Orioles, a team that has been mowed down by righties all season. We haven’t seen the dominant Kluber that we’re used to seeing consistently this year as he’s sporting a 9.08 K/9 and 27.4 K rate, numbers that, for him, are lower than expected. What’s working in his favor, though is his 4.4 percent walk rate, so he’s not allowing baserunners for free. His O-swing rate is a solid 31 percent while his swinging strike rate has room for improvement at 10.8 percent compared to his 15.6 percent rate last season and his career mark of 12.6 percent. Kluber is an acceptable pivot off of deGrom as he provides a solid floor going deep into most of his starts pitching into at least the seventh inning in all five of his outings this season. *If you’re a subscriber and HAVE NOT joined our Slack chat I would recommend doing so. Tweet or DM me for more details and take advantage of all that we have to offer at FullTime DFS. Mid Tier and Value Options Zack Godley (ARI) Godley continues to be underpriced while posting some great metrics as a guy that you want to roster in DFS. With a 9.26 K/9 and 25.3 K percentage, a 28.2 percent O-swing rate, and a 12.3 swinging strike rate. Godley does allow 31.7 percent hard-contact which is minimized due to his tremendous 58.1 percent ground ball rate. Although the Nats beat the hell out of Jeff Samardzija and the Giants pitching staff on Wednesday, which wasn’t a surprise, they are missing some key bats including Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon at the top of their lineup. With just one poor start, which came against the Dodgers in a game in which he essentially walked everyone, Godley has been rock solid otherwise and fairly priced on FD at $9,100 and DK at $8,600. Marcus Stroman (TOR) It has been a miserable start to the season for Stroman, a guy that focuses his whole game on getting ground balls and limiting hard contact. While he’s getting ground balls at a 69.4 percent clip, he’s giving up a ton of hard contact, something that will come back down to earth. Stroman is striking out batters at a career-high level with 9.45 K’s/9 and a 21.7 percent K rate. Walks are killing him though as he’s giving up the free pass 14.4 percent of the time – a number that is up from 7.4 percent, 6.3 percent, and 5.8 percent over the last three season, so this number is bound to come down and will against the Rangers who walk just 8.8 percent of the time against righties while striking out 24.4 percent of the time. Facing a lineup without Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus should bode well for Stroman who’s dealing with a ton of bad luck thus far surrendering an astronomical .350 BABIP. The bottom line is that Stroman is due for some positive regression here and is a considerable value or SP2 play. Miles Mikolas (STL) Mikolas is a value play to consider as well as an SP2 option on DraftKings. He faces a Pirates team that, although they don’t strike out much against righties, they do lack a bit in the power department with just a team ISO of .147. Mikolas has a K rate of just 19 percent but has induced ground balls at a 49.4 percent clip while pitching into the seventh inning in three of his four starts allowing a total of just two earned runs over his last 14 innings. Like I said, SP2 is where I would probably draw the
MLB DFS – Early Dongers Club
This is a slate that I don’t care that much for. Why? Well, we have two small slates overall today and with the early one it’s got some chalk plays that I am just not that fond of following. So it’s either ride with the obvious and hope you get that 1 or 2 decisions that are critical right, or you completely go off the reservation and you eliminate 70% of the field simply by getting 1 pick right…. I’m gonna take a risk and fade 70% of the field. You have been warned….. WEATHER All Games play. All games have decent weather. PITCHING – My Guys Thor … Syndergaard has a price tag that doesn’t kill us on FanDuel, that’s the first obvious thing here. And honestly on DK he’s not that bad either. The second thing is that there’s nobody else going who is clearly on his tier in terms of strikeout potential and history. There’s a couple decent pivots on FanDuel in the eyes of some, but for me, it’s all Thor here today. Ivan Nova … Nova not only has the better team behind him and is pitching at home but he’s gonna get 3-4 more K than Fulmer today. That alone justifies the few extra bucks to spend for Nova on either site today for me. LONGSHOT Kyle Gibson … I told you I am throwing caution to the wind. FADES Sean Newcomb … The Reds have awoken, I’m not going here at all. Carlos Martinez … Day game? OK, thanks. I’ll take Jay Bruce’s homer instead. Jordan Montgomery … Sorry, but you missed his really good performance. He’s never going deep into games, so why would I go here when he’s gonna lose? Thx. CATCHERS Kurt Suzuki Tucker Barnhardt Alex Avila FIRST BASE Freddie Freeman Joey Votto Carlos Santana SECOND BASE Brian Dozier Gleyber Torres Ozzie Albies Cesar Hernandez THIRD BASE Daniel Descalso Miguel Sano Johan Camargo Ew, what a disaster. Take the cheapies…. SHORTSTOP Dansby Swanson Day Game Didi Scott Kingery So Didi has homered in 4 straight or 5 straight or something like 80 straight games against the Twins. He has as many HR as strikeouts…. He’s homering every home game it feels like. He’s facing a low ball pitcher who sucks. He’s at home. It’s a day game. He’s Didi……… Fade = Balls…… Someone with balls will fade Didi and play some other garbage here. Like me. OUTFIELD – Tier 1 Bruce, Jay … Nick Markakis Adam Frazier Corey Dickerson All the Jay Bruce on a Thursday Day Game…… OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Starling Marte Rhys Hoskins David Peralta Ronald Acuna I’m not buying heavy onto Acuna just yet. Wait until he gets home IMO…. Love C-Dickerson today. OUTFIELD – Tier 3 Willie Mays Hays (Odubel Herrera) Adam Duvall STACKS – My Team Braves/Reds … The Braves are the one section of chalk I love. Meanwhile, I love the Reds offense at home in an afternoon game with the Braves bullpen looming behind Newcomb. Newcomb’s been much better about not walking guys this season but the Reds finally have their bats awake and will continue to stay hot today. Pirates … I can’t trust Fulmer in this spot. The Pirates are a team I’ve been picking on but not today. Dickerson and Marte. DONGERS CLUB Bruce Jay on a Thursday – OF – Chairman Cory Dickerson – OF Brian Dozier – 2B Daniel Descalso – 3B Joey Votto – 1B Kurt Suzuki – C Dansby Swanson – SS Adam Duvall – OF BONUS ……………….. Rhys Hoskins – OF
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day Pitchers – Best options Clayton Kershaw – After a down game he faces the Marlins. Mic drop. No really, he is in a great spot with the highest upside on the slate. Side note: Shout out to my boy PatioJoe for pointing out it is a 4:15 start California time and he will have the benefit of pitching in the shadows as well. There should be enough value on the slate to fit him in especially on Fanduel. I do not like his $14,000 price tag on DK, but there isn’t really any other pitcher close to him tonight. Pitchers – Next best options/SP2 on DraftKings Jake Arrieta or Zack Greinke – As much as I don’t like Arrieta he is in a decent spot tonight versus the Diamondbacks, as is his opponent Greinke. Arrieta has good numbers against Arizona in the past and pitched great last time out. In limited at bats Greinke has also done well againt the Phillies allowing only 7 hits over 38 abs with 11 strikeouts. Both teams are in the bottom ten in hitting right now though they have scored runs. One of these guys or both should have a good night. Michael Wacha or Eduardo Rodriguez – Cheaper options tonight if you want to pay for bats and decent SP2s on DraftKings if fitting in Kershaw. Wacha has good numbers against the Mets in the past allowing only a .147 batting average over 109 at bats. Chalk Stacks Chalk stacks are not necessarily bad plays. Chalk is chalk for a reason, because the team is in a good spot that day. In fact, sometimes you must play some chalk to win, especially if there is one team far and away in a better spot than the rest. I list these for you to recognize who is going to be popular. If you decide to play them, mix lower owned stacks, mini-stacks or low owned one-offs. Or within the chalk stack be different, like stacking the bottom of the order. I will also tell you if I am playing or fading them that night. Boston Red Sox – If not pitching Clayton, I assume people will stack the Red Sox. Interesting to see if they are highly owned because it is hard to do both. Oakland A’s versus Texas Rangers – Highest over/under on the board with both teams even should draw ownership. St. Louis Cardinals – They have hit Steven Matz well in the past. Gut feeling says they will be highly owned. Milwaukee Brewers – Good BVP, high implied total will add to ownership. Lower Owned Stacks L.A. Dodgers – Though they have been cold, they are in a good spot versus Trevor Richards tonight. Tampa Bay Rays – Not my favorite stack, but I don’t trust any of the Orioles pitchers Favorite Stacks Rangers A’s Dodgers Orioles – Sneaky stack of the day. Maybe it’s just a homer call. Position plays of the day Catcher – Yasmani Grandal, Yadier Molina, Chance Sisco, Juan Centeno, Wilson Ramos 1st Base – Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Martinez, Cody Bellinger 2nd Base – Jed Lowrie, Sean Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Brock Holt 3rd Base – Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Moose, Travis Shaw SS – Corey Seager, Manny, Eduardo Nunez, Marcus Semien, Jurickson Profar Outfield – Tommy Pham, Matt Joyce, Dodgers, Mookie, Khris Davis, Denard Span, Shin-Soo Choo, Trey Mancini, Delino DeShields Value plays of the day – w projected batting order Be sure to check back to see if lineup order changes. Batting order is one of the main ways to find value in MLB. The same player may not be a great value batting 9th, but if batting 2nd becomes a great play. Matt Joyce – $2800 FD batting 2nd for the A’s Matt Kemp – $2600 FD – batting 5th for the Dodgers Chance Sisco – $2200 FD, $2700 DK – batting 2nd for the Orioles Kendrys Morales – $2400 FD, $3500 DK– batting 5th for the Blue Jays, hits him well Joc Pederson – $2200 FD – batting 6th for the Dodgers Brad Miller – $2600 FD, $3000 DK – batting 4th for the Rays Delino DeShields – $2700 FD, $3200 DK – batting 1st for the Rangers
