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Dongers Club 2020 – Park Projection Tiers, Part 1

Welcome to The Dongers Club 2020 – Park Projection TiersThis is without question my favorite pre-season article to write each season. I am a stadiums person when it comes to Baseball because unlike every other major pro team sport, Baseball is one where the stadium teams play in as home or visitors can benefit each individual differently. Over the years I have used my own views on how stadiums will play based upon Weather, Match-Ups and Player Profiles to profit in DFS more than any other factor. Take your xWOBA, xFIP, xSCHNOZZLE stats and throw them out of the window if you aren’t factoring in the stadiums that the games are being played in. There are park factors that you can download off the internet and then there’s the ultimate breakdown which is the Dongers Club 2020 MLB Stadium Guide. This is the article that in years past has explained to you things like Lefties in Cleveland, RH power hitters in Minnesota, why Atlanta is a righties park and last year gave you Lefties in PNC as the sneaky play of the season. I challenge you to look beyond a table or spreadsheet of data showing which stadium ranks where. Understand how they adapt to each player and then you too can play Mookie Betts the FIRST time he hits 3 homers in Camden Yards, or Ryan Braun every … single … time … he is in Citizens Bank Park. We now have an extremely sad and unique season in that there won’t be as many unique match-ups where we have certain teams/players going to non divisional ballparks where we can benefit from them being in a ballpark that caters to their style of play. You know, like the aforementioned Ryan Braun going to Citizen’s Bank Park which is essentially Cincinnati east for him, only he has a thing for extremely destroying Phillies pitching while there. Or there’s the annual Houston Astros trip to Minnesota, the Seattle Mariners annual trip to Kansas City, those weird but fun to stack Oakland Athletics whenever they come to the east coast (but only for the first game of the series). Yes, sadly we’ll have to wait until 2021 for some of those spots and we quite possibly won’t ever get to see Ryan Braun and his aging career hit as a road hitter in Philadelphia. Something that will happen this year which brings me laughter is how skewed the data will be for these “ballpark factors” that you will find out there on the internet. Sure, a lot of my rankings end up aligning with the statistics which are compiled in the games being played. Because if no lefty ever hit a home run in Cleveland than it certainly would never be a thing. But does the data suddenly align that these stats rank #1 on leaderboards? No. They never will. They won’t because the stats which you are viewing are always including factors with which we do not concern ourselves when it comes to DFS. Factors such as that random late September series with bad pitching or bad hitting all around. That 13th inning game where who knows what guy is pitching and thus he gives up 5 runs in a late inning blowout. Or how about which pitchers end up getting the home or road start in certain stadiums. Everyone knows Yankee Stadium is tiny. Everyone knows the Yankees team hits a ton of home runs. Does everyone know that Yankee Stadium ranked below Tropicana Field in the mighty HR park factors for 2019? They’re not entirely pointless — just entirely useless if simply copy & paste’d. So with that said, I bring you once again the 2020 MLB Ballpark Projections & Tiers. These are tiers which can be viewed in the same manner that you would look at doing tiers for drafting a seasonal draft at each position. They’re going to take into account the obvious about stadiums like hey, Coors Field is a gazillion miles (unofficially) above sea level, the Rockies have some bad bullpen arms and that stadium is gonna produce a lot of offense. But they’re also going to take into account the quality of the team who plays half their games in the stadium, who their likely opponents are this year and oh yeah, who is gonna come into that stadium and rake in a shortened season this year. These aren’t your typical @randomdoucheDFS person on Twitter’s Stadium Rankings. They are unique to The Dongers Club and they are MY PROJECTIONS on which stadiums to focus on. Things such as … The Chase Field Roof Lefties in Cleveland Lefties in Pittsburgh What type of hitter excels in Target Field? South Beach Theory Why Detroit is the real Windy City And this years break out stadium that everyone has been wrong about the past two years. just a few ‘Dongers Club’ stadium theories which have proven to be very profitable for DFS and betting…. Our biggest hit last year was Lefties in PNC Park, the obvious Camden Yards is a top stadium and for the first half of the season Target Field. I won’t unveil the #1 stadium until part three of this series, but it is NOT Coors Field and it is NOT Camden Yards. So what is in store for 2020 Predictions? Let’s go with the first part of this three part series breaking down Stadiums 30-21 … aka, the snoozer club. 30-26: JUST DONT BOTHER TIER This tier has arguably two of the nicest stadiums in the league for watching a game and then two absolute piles of shit ballparks for teams who should be fighting for a playoff berth and are great road teams offensively. 30. Oracle Park – San Francisco 2019 HR Ranking: 30th We begin at the bottom of the list with the beauty that is AT&T, err Oracle Park in San Francisco — home of the Giants — and home of the first stadium with a new dimension configuration

KBO/NPB Dongers Club – Sat Jun 28

KBO Eric Jokisch – Kiwoom I was a little shocked to see some of the lower ratings on the Pitchers today from the model that I built and have been using. Someone like Eric Jokisch who got back on track in his last start with a 26.75 is clearly being undervalued because he draws a really good Kia Tigers lineup right now, but as a quality lefty arm I like him to limit them. Jokisch has been a good pitcher at limiting home runs, going deep into games and overall is my favorite arm to ride on this slate. William Cuevas – KT Wiz We should see the highest ownership on the slate for William Cuevas, unless folks suddenly think the Hanwhaaaaaaaaaaaa? Eagles are gonna go on a tear like the Washington Nationals from last season. You don’t think so do you? Nah, me neither. Eagles are the sheep play today, load up on Cuevas. Chan Heon Jung – LG Twins The best third option as a cheaper price play. Other pitchers are in tougher spots/stadiums and Jung has two main bats to worry about on the Wyverns. That said, I don’t TEAMS TO TARGET KT Wiz — You know the main guys here by now…. Mel Rojas Jr and Baek Ho Kang along with any value you want to sprinkle around them. SAMSUNG LIONS — Adrian Sampson stinks but he has been good at limiting power. No worries, the Lions have four guys who can get on base without utilizing power in Ja Wook Koo, Sang Su Kim, Young Jin Choi and Hak Ju Lee. NPB The Nippon league is only five games on DK because one game is later than the others and DK has slightly bumped up the prize pools. I mean, it’s like an inch they gave us, but hey, it is what it is. Hope more of you start to play it. Last night was clear evidence of what I meant in regards to pitching. I highly recommend anyone doing more than one lineup diversify your SP. PITCHING Kazuto Taguchi – YOM Giants – This is the highest favored arm on the slate and so he’ll be heavy chalk. 24% strikeout rate last year against a team with a near 20% strikeout rate. Solid spot. Hiroki Tokoda – Hiroshima Carp – Of the top pitchers on the slate he consistently pitches deep into games and statistically stands out as one of the safer spots. Tsuyoshi Wada – Fukkkkk Hawks TOP NPB TEAMS TO TARGET FUK Hawks – Yanagita / Balentin SAI Lions – Yamakawa / Tonosaki / Nakamura TOM Giants – Sakamota / Maru / Okamoto NPB CHAIRMAN: Hotaka Yamakawa – IF – SAI Lions – $7,400

KBO & NPB Dongers Club – June 26th

This article is for the KBO slate and has notes on the NPB slate as well. Good news there is no bad weather anticipated for Friday’s games. Slate locks at the regular 5:30 AM EST time and is full (5 games). PITCHERS Dan Straily He got PPD and pushed back again which gives a slight pause to consider fading him due to pitchers just being creates of habit but then we realize he’s facing Samsung and they are one of the better teams to target with pitching. Only 12 of the Lions 40 home runs as a team have come on the road this season. Combined with Straily’s incredible strike out rate makes him too hard to pass up because even if he doesn’t rack up the strikeouts for some reason, he shouldn’t give up damage against Samsung. He’s chalk we will eat. Warwick Saupold He’s been a lone half way decent bright spot for the Eagles this year. I know KT Wiz have been on fire but this park has shown to play very well for pitching and at $1300 more than his opponent Heyong Jun So, we’re finding a nice SP pivot which is needed with the 80%+ owned Straily as SP1. Casey Kelly Too pricey for my liking today, the $500 over Saupold isn’t enough for me to go with him, but he’s someone I project to get in the 16-18 point range today and is likely the 2nd highest owned pitcher going after Straily with Heyong Jun So being third highest. KBO STACKS Doosan Bears … The marquee match-up this weekend will be the Dino’s and Bears going at it in Doosan’s home park. A great spot to target for offense is quite the understatement, especially with the pitchers on the bump for Friday night. Hard to argue with the Bears 1-4 right now as all four are over 10 PPG in their last 5. Really like the lefties in this spot. Jose Fernandez, Joo Hwan Choi, Jae Hwan Kim, Jae Il Oh LG Twins … Remember when Roberto Ramos was dirt cheap and homered every day? Feels like forever ago. Well he gets to beat up on a righty who has been hit really hard (.243 ISO) by lefties this season. The Twins project to start four lefties at the top of their order and Ramos/Hyun Soo Kim would be the two power bats to benefit the most. Hyun Soo Kim, Roberto Ramos KIA Tigers … The other game to look at for offense is between the Tigers and Heroes. Preston Tucker has been a machine on weekends, but hasn’t done anything since … wait for it … last Friday. With a day off yesterday I expect Tucker to bounce back and have a nice weekend. Preston Tucker, Ji Wan Na, Ho Ryung Kim HR Calls: Hyun-Soo Kim, Preston Tucker, Jae-Il Oh NPB Slate for Friday I really enjoy the NPB and it’s a shame the first night snuck up on us and it had so much overlay because DraftKings didn’t prepare anyone for it. I believe it could grow, but really if you want to build on a small bankroll this is a good spot to go instead of KBO. PITCHER RANKINGS This is a loaded pitching slate and one to pay up for. You cannot afford on the NPB slates to miss when there’s multiple pitchers going for 25 points. There’s just not enough bats in your lineup to make up the difference between one pitcher getting 25 and yours getting 10 or 12. On FanDuel for MLB you can get away with missing a little on pitcher because the 8 hitters and weighted scoring system towards hitters makes it easier to catch-up a gap. On DK with two pitchers sometimes you can make up scoring with SP2 and the extra two hitters. But with so few spots in your lineup you just cannot afford to get cute and in a pitching dominated league like this, we gotta get over 20 tonight or you won’t cash anywhere. Shota Imanaga (YOK) vs Tigers .. Looks like the best strike-otu upside on the slate and is affordable at only $10,900. The Tigers lineup is mostly lefties as well which gives him a nice LvL boost — including Justin 0 for 4 Bour. Tomoyuki Sugiano (YOM) … Heavy favorite but drawing a game on the road against a team with some power in the Swallows. Coming off a great first game of the season he should rack up strikeouts but is at risk for giving up HR. Takahiro Norimoto (TOH) … Expecting a pitchers duel between the Fighters and Eagles — he’s at home which to me is a nice boost. OFFENSE Unlike pitching, offense to me is fairly clear cut and the spot to go all in with a couple teams on today IMO. Giants — Sakamoto and Okamoto are on fire and both homered again yesterday. Throw in Yoshihiro Maru as a third bat. Lions — Yamakawa, Mori, Nakamura, Tonosaki One off bats Masataka Yoshida (ORI) Tetsuto Yamada (YAK) Yuki Yanagita (FUK) Neftali Soto (YOK) Seiya Suzuki (HIR)

Dongers Club – KBO/NPB – Jun 25th

KBO got rained out last night as we kind of suspected and tonight has a 4 game make-up series beginning at 2:00 AM. It’s got some premium pitching on it as well. The NPB on the other hand is loaded with rookie pitchers and should be a high scoring affair. KBO SP Rankings Dan Straily … Has been dominant and at home even in a game with a little rain is clear #1 Hui Kwan Yu … SK should be a nother target on a short 4 game slate that doesn’t feature Hanwha STACKS KT Wiz / NC Dinos … I dont trust Wright or Bae here and the Wiz were too hot before the PPD Doosan Bears NPB SP Rankings Hirotoshi Takanashi … Man, his stats remind me of Jake Junis. Need I say more? Gives up lots of bombs and strikes out a ton of guys. Faces a team with no power. LETS GO! Takahiro Shiomi NPB STACKS FUK – Hawks Balentien, Yanagita, Uebayashi ORI – Buffaloes Adam Jones Masataka Yoshida – Must play TOH – Eagles Splish Splash Jabari Blash – HR is coming Hideto Asamura Stefen Romero CHAIRMAN: Masataka Yoshida – Orix Buffaloes

KBO – Dongers Club – 6/23

I am splitting up the KBO and NPB articles because I want to keep them apart. It’s just an organization thing to keep the thoughts on one league within an article and the other in a different one. Truthfully, because