The Dongers Club – Fri, August 14th
SLATE INTRO I consider yesterday a great success. You know why? We got the dumb Mookie 3 HR game out of the way on a spot where nobody cared because everyone in the world had a gazillion points. Even those
The Dongers Club – Thu, August 13th
SLATE INTRO Thursday’s are the worst. Today only has six games scheduled for all of MLB, largely due to the Cardinals being morons in regards to COVID but also because MLB built today in as a day off for everyone
The Dongers Club – Wed, August 12th
SLATE INTRO Mid week shorter slate with only 8 games on the docket tonight. For those who want the early slate action of Royals-Reds, Coors Field and the Blue Jays in Buffalo, go time travel back to 3PM and set
The Dongers Club – Tue, August 11th
SLATE INTRO Thank you Oakland. Thank you. The Athletics absolutely came through late last night unlike the Dodgers. So in today’s “Dongers Club Thought of the Day” we find that there’s a rumor going around about humidors being placed in Boston, Seattle and NY Mets stadiums for this season and it’s having an impact on those games. Nonsense. First off, it’s just a rumor and it’s spun off from an article which is wondering why hitting is down. As you know, we already have been ahead of this on the theories (even though I was wrong in saying the hitting would be coming out stronger than pitchers to start). Bullpens was one thing, but the other is the incredible BABIP drop we have seen and there was some good logic put into why that is happening from Sam Fuld of all people — who is now the “Director of Integrative Performance” for the Phillies. He had this to say about the impact of shifts and defensive alignments … Quite accurate. Coming into last night Jon Gray had an insane BABIP through his first two games compared to prior seasons and that like always is the case with BABIP started to adjust. I sense things will adjust in many places and we’re starting to see offense go up – although my personal opinion is that we don’t quite have an explosion DFS slate today. Keeping in line with the nugget of the day (and week really), here’s who in my mind is below and above expectations offensively so far this season. These are based off my expectations, which I trust more than anyone else’s. Teams exceeding expectations … Orioles — Specifically they have a .285 BABIP and only 21% K rate. Both will change negatively for them. Cubs Mets Teams below expectations … Indians — Until Lindor moves out of the 3 hole this will remain true. Blue Jays — About to sky rocket Diamondbacks — Also climbing very rapidly Twins — Mitch Garver having a massive back to earth season and Josh Donaldson not being healthy have hurt them. They’ll be fine though. I am also very heavily looking at pitchers who have so far exceeded expectations as guys who are about to get lit up and guys who are far below expectations as being good players to take chances on. P.S. BABIP is vastly overrated when viewed by itself but it’s relevant in the context of the quote from the article above so that is why I referenced it. WEATHER Humid but quiet and clear of any PPD risks So far through one game the roof opening in Texas most definitely has helped out hitters, but the ball still tends to die a little bit and the wind almost has no impact. Tonight features quite a few potential options, but what drives me nuts is the pricing on these guys is almost all identical. So you would think just take the best one and move on right? Well, not so easy…. Zack Wheeler It certainly feels like this is the first time all year we have been able to consider Wheeler in his new Phillies uniform. He has made two starts in the home ballpark (one as the road team) against the Marlins and the Yankees and he’s carried things over quite well in both games. The Orioles lineup has scattered annoying home runs in it at times, but despite Wheeler having very low K totals in his first two games, this is the spot to see a boost from him as the back end of their lineup should be SO-SO-SO-SO….. Max Scherzer I did not want to use him initially but seeing how I was not heavy on Coors Field tonight and didn’t see stacking heavy on other teams I don’t see why I don’t just play Max + Zack Wheeler on DK and then mix in some value bats (i.e. Tampa) elsewhere. The price difference isn’t that much either and Max going 6 innings and getting you 9 or 10 strikeouts isn’t asking for much. He’ll give you a high floor and we can focus then on mixing the CORE bats with value bats effectively to day. Max bounces back after that 1 inning game. He’s fine but won’t dominate with an insane score. Mike Minor Game log watchers will see that Mike Minor had two insane games against the Mariners last season, but their lineup has changed enough to throw some of that out. I still believe this ballpark is pitcher friendly even with the roof open and will go back here again without concern. Minor’s price on FD today is extremely cheap for the upside he brings. Outside of the Box Zac Gallen Nobody will have him and I think that’s a mistake. The Rockies have just seen about 5 straight games facing a LHP and now will get to face one of the best underappreciated arms in the NL West. Not only has he managed the Rockies in the past, Gallen has faced three teams this season and thrown 16 IP, allowed 5 ER and struck out 21 batters. Those three teams??? Padres, Dodgers and Astros. Not exactly cupcake lineups to walk through. Gallen’s proven enough and while he probably does give up a solo HR to Daniel Murphy, he will still pitch better than expectations given that he is in Coors tonight and Colorado can still produce favorable strikeout upside. Cheapest SP on the board worth using: Marco Gonzales Guys I am not using Ross Stripling … Seeing the same lineup two starts in a row. Fade for that reason to me. But logically he makes sense. Dylan Bundy … Sometimes you just have to pass on a game entirely and not provide a take on a player. That’s what I am doing here. No comment. There’s about half a dozen teams I could mention as oh hey, they probably do well, here and there
The Dongers Club – Mon, August 10th
SLATE INTRO Tough way to end the week with the pitching debacles and injuries that we had yesterday and I take full blame for not rolling out a GIFtastic article last Friday like I should have. That’s on me. One continuing piece of advice is to note how many teams are using DEEP bullpens right now and the hitters have no clue what these guys are throwing most of the time. The Indians/White Sox game is a great example and here’s a list of the White Sox bullpen arms who had pitched in the 5 days leading up to last nights game: That’s a crap ton of arms. So this idea that you shouldn’t have looked at at 7 inning only game yesterday gets a little diminished when you consider how random the bullpen variance is right now, no? At any rate, it will settle out at some point but we gotta remain focused on two things. Who is locked in right now and thus players we are seeing consistently get on base or have good At Bats. Who has no clue right now, but when they might be showing signs of breaking out. These are your daily hitting choices and you MUST be looking at things through the lens of an entire series. Honestly, that part is no different than any other season. Worst bullpens on this slate as of right now: Seattle San Diego (strength is in the back end, this should change though) SF Giants Texas NY Mets Best bullpens on this slate as of right now: Dodgers Athletics … Dominant Rockies Tampa Bay Milwaukee WEATHER Quiet and clear This is a very mediocre pitching slate today. Nobody who pops out as a clear cut must own but lots of guys who are kind of right down the middle in terms of being able to offer some value. A good evening to take a risk or two for those of you on DraftKings with your SP2. Kyle Gibson After getting destroyed early in his last game against Oakland he settled down and got through 6 solid innings with 9 strikeouts mid last week before his bullpen blew the game late. The Seattle Mariners come to down and they are near the bottom statistically in most categories when we sum things up. It is only 91 today which makes me wonder if they’ll ever open the roof down there. I doubt it. Well shit. They just opened the roof. All in fellas. All in. Let’s see how this plays out.. Dallas Keuchel Maybe Keuchel is just an AL guy? He’ll be getting a Detroit team who had two magical days in Pittsburgh and then cooled off as expected yesterday. Keuchel is good at getting a ton of ground balls and the Tigers will gladly give him all of those today. Never a huge strikeout pitcher he is coming off an impressive 8K performance against the Brewers last week and that will give some folks hope. Don’t fall into that trap, if you get 5K from him you’ll be happy, but 7 Innings is a strong possibility and he’s a fantastic DK play today sitting at $7800. Outside of the Box Logan Webb Houston obviously is struggling having just played the Athletics in Oakland, but with Springer banged up and still no Yordan Alvarez the luster that they have as an offense does have to settle in as losing a hit does it not? At only 6 foot tall, Logan Webb does a very good job of mixing up his pitches and that’s a major plus for the pitcher when the opponent doesn’t know you very well. I expect the Astros struggles to continue and will be playing the Giants to win this game as well. Really expect Logan Webb to have a nice sneaky performance and would look at him as a third option today. Guys I am not using Dustin May: Yeah, you go right ahead and use him against Tatis and company. Randy Dobnak: Sorry but he feels like his first name should be Larry. Anywho, the Brewers look Verrrrry tempting to pick on every day but this is not a game I would touch Dobnak in. The bats… The bats are waking up. We have two PRIME hitting spots tonight, mostly Coors Field but a couple others which leap out. These four teams are not ranked necessarily in order and I continue to promote spreading out ownership across 3 to 4 teams ( not 8 one offs) but each lineup should be about 3 teams as the core. Trust the rankings by position at the bottom for my preference at each spot. L.A. Dodgers Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger Mookie is feeling it quite well right now and it’s only a matter of time until Bellinger had a stud game. But when we see Luis Perdomo on the slate the players I love to use are RH bats who are sitting between two lefties. What would be an ideal lineup to me today is some form of L-R-L-R-L-R, but good ole Dave Roberts probably doesn’t do that. The reason for this with Perdomo is everyone see’s he struggles with getting hammered by LH bats, but after he gives up a double to one and has another on deck, he’ll be shitting his pants having flashbacks of Nolan Arenado beating the shit out of him while Justin Turner steps in and hammers a 2-0 slider out into the parking lot. Worth noting: The Padres bullpen is very good on paper but carries a high 5+ ERA coming into this game. Most of their strength is on the backend, so if it gets out of hand early they could punt it. Arizona Diamondbacks Starling Marte, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar The rule I have the most success when it comes to Coors Field is play 0 to 4 batters there and not more when we have a normal
The Dongers Club – Sun, Aug 9th
Hey Tampa, try getting your lineup out a little earlier next time… Thanks. SLATE INTRO This is a 7 game common-game slate with each site having a different 8th game on them. FanDuel will lock early today at 12:35 as
The Dongers Club – Sat, Aug 8th
SLATE INTRO Hang on, I have to remove my nuts from my gut after Derek Holland’s first inning on the afternoon slate. OK. That hurt. Eight games on both sites tonight with three games starting at 9:10 PM ET. Lots
The Dongers Club – Sat, Aug 8th – Early
SLATE INTRO Congrats to anyone who had the lock bet of me not holding to my “I won’t be doing two articles per day on split slates” this season bet. To make matters worse the ‘Early’ slates are only 4
The Dongers Club – Fri, Aug 7th
SLATE INTRO So we have arguably our first ‘normal’ slate of the season today. Everyone is playing but only 13 games are on the DFS main slates with two 6pm games (Baltimore vs Washington, which is likely PPD and New
The Dongers Club – Thu, Aug 6th
SLATE INTRO Three straight days of being right down the middle and I must say it’s very odd for me in 2020 to not have my finger on the pulse that is Chase Field – but those Arizona Diamondbacks against