MLB DFS Fastballs & Flyballs 6/25
This article is a quick look at some of my favorite pitchers, teams and hitters on this massive 15 game slate. For a more detailed article take a look at Steve Renner’s Dinger Club. PITCHERS Gerrit Cole This will be the first time Cole gets to face his old team and I see him stepping it up a tonight. The Pirates don’t tend to strike out much, but they are facing the top strike out arm tonight with his 38% K rate. Add in that the Pirates are in the bottom 5 in HRs and bottom 10 in runs scored. I don’t see many paying up today due to the large slate and big $ bats and if they do I see them going towards Scherzer. Both are in good spots, but I prefer the savings on Cole in his revenge spot. Looking at 7 innings 8-9 Ks and 1 ER. Madison Bumgarner I was all over Drew Pomeranz last night and his is a much better situation. Pom went 5 innings struck out 11 Rockies. On the road this year the Rockies are not the same team and have a much higher K rate (30 % K rate on the road this year and over the past 30 day). Bumgarner is a better pitcher than Pomeranz and should go 6-7 innings with 7-8 Ks and 2 ERs. VALUE ARM/DARK HORSE Jesse Chavez Chavez was named the 5th starter last time out and we saw 5 solid innings from him. Could see him throw closer to 70 pitches today and a nice value vs the Tigers at only 5.3 K on DK. Tigers have a 26% K rate and a .233 average vs RHP over the last 30 days and are not any better in the year. Looking at 5 innings 2 ERs and 6 Ks. TEAM/S Attacking 2 of the worst pitchers and bullpens. SD Padres The Padres head into Camden Yards, which is a nice park upgrade and get some warm weather tonight. They face off against Yacabonis for a few innings then Rogers (allowed 5 HRs in 11 innings) and the Os bullpen (6.84 ERA and 2 HRs/9 over last 30 days. Padres have a good amount of power in the lineup and could hit 4+ HRs tonight. Most of team is in play tonight. CORE: Machado, Renfroe, Reyes VALUE: Kinsler, Hedges Philadelphia Phillies Phillies face off against Walker Lockett and the Mets bullpen at home tonight. Mets pen has allowed a 7.85 ERA and 2.3 HRs/9 over the past 30 days. Excellent hitters park with some nice weather. CORE: Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, Bruce VALUE: Franco, Sneaky Team LA Dodgers Dodgers get a nice park upgrade And some hot weather with the roof open tonight. They face Robbie Ray who has allowed over 2 HRs/9 to LHHs Putin’s Max Muncy in play and a bit over 1 HR/9 to RHHs at home. Hernandez, Turner and Taylor are are all reasonable priced. Barnes or Martin make nice catching options. BATS Michael Conforto Conforto hit very well last night going 3-4 with a double and HR in his favorite park Citizens Bank Park. Over the past 3 years (18) games he is hitting .342 with 10 HRs and 3 HRs this year in only 4 games. He gets an excellent matchup tonight vs Jake Arrieta who has trouble with LHHs allowing a .383 wOBA and 2.2 HRs/9. Along with the good matchup and park Conforto is hitting the ball well as of late with a increase in battered ball and a 42% FB rate. Should be another good night. Conforto cane be used with McNeil, D. Smith, Alonso. Rhys Hoskins Hoskins and the Phillies face off against Walker Lockett who got lit up in his first start for 6 runs over 2.1 innings. He is coming into this game hitting the ball well as of late with increase in battered ball and HRs in 2 of his last 3 games. The Phillies are at home in some very nice weather and get to face the Mets bullpen once Lockett is done (7.85 era and 2.3 HRs/9 over last 30 days). Manny Machado Machado is back in Camden Yards on Fire in a revenge spot. Muliple hits in 8 of his last 10 games with a few 3 and 4 hit games and 6 HRs in that timeframe. Os pitching staff is trash and Camden Yards is an excellent hitter park. Hard to pass up on him and some of the Padres tonight. Machado and Renfroe my favorite, but can use most of Padres. Mookie Betts Good spot for the Red Sox tonight with most people focusing on the Yankees 7.4 run total. Betts is starting to heat up and gets an excellent matchup agains Carson Fulmer tonight at home. Betts, Martinez and Bogaerts are always a good combo RvR with some Bradley Jr. and VALUE BATS Jackie Bradley Jr.– streak is not over yet and gets a nice matchup tonight. Jacoby Jones– vs a RHP that struggles with righties. Alex Dickerson (OF)– Kid has some power and gets a nice matchup tonight. Kike Hernandez– should lead off vs a lefty. nice park for bats. JT Riddle– .5% HR tonight. Hernan Perez Manny Pina/Austin Hedges (C) both in excellent spots tonight
The Dongers Club – Mon, 6/24
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
The Dongers Club — Sun: 6/23
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
The Dongers Club — Sat: 6/22
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
The Dongers Club — Sat: 6/22 – Early
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
The Dongers Club — Fri: 6/21
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 6/21
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point
The Cycle
The Staff Arms on this slate are terrible aside from one or two I really like. I’m going all in on Gallen. Gallen – He’s Miami’s #19 prospect one behind Yamamoto. He doesn’t have over powering stuff, but he does have a plus cutter and changeup. St. Louis has struggled against the change in this series, and face yet another arm with a plus change. Gallen was also part of the Miami/St Louis trade that sent Ozuna to St Louis. Odorizzi – KC just sent Mondesi to the 10 day IL which gives Odorizzi a nice bump tonight. He’s struck out at least 7 in 4 straight games, and should get the win tonight. Montas – I really don’t like attacking Tampa cause they can pound any pitcher, but Montas has great over his last 2 starts striking out 19, with 2 quality starts and 2 wins. Montas tends to go enough for a quality start each time he’s on the mound. The Bats Minnesota lefties and Cron – They just saw Sparkman 5 days ago and tagged him for 4 runs. Angels righties – just keep playing these guys. On fire and probably put up 10+ runs again. Dodgers righties and Muncy – Blowup game for Bum with tensions in LA. Muncy probably gets hit his first AB then homers off him again.
The Dongers Club – Thu, June 20th
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
MLB DFS Fastballs & Flyballs 6/20
This article gives a quick overview of my favorite plays on the slate. For a more detailed article please take a look at Steve Renner’s Donger Club. PITCHER Adam Wainwright Wainwright had a few good starts right before he injured his hamstring (32.6 and 20.7 DK points). Tonight he faces a Marlins team that has trouble with the curve-ball and he throws this pitch over 40% of the time. This year at Busch Staduim Wainwright has a 2.31 ERA, limits batters to a .236 average, K rate increases 5% to 23% and GB rate goes up 5% as well to 51%. Looking at 7 innings 7Ks and 1 ER. *High tier arms- Jake Oddorizzi & Charlie Morton. Prefer to pay down today but like Oddorizzi a bit more vs the Royals. VALUE ARM Tyler Chatwood Chatwood is dirt cheap on both sites and gets a decent matchup vs the Mets tonight. He has been known to have a high walk rate but lowered it by 5% this year so far and the Mets walk at a low 7% rate. The Mets current lineup strikes out at a 25% clip vs RHP and Chatwood. The lineup also consists of 5-6 RHH’s which Chatwood has limited to a .178 average. At home this year he has a 1.89 ERA and an elite 55% GB rate. I do not expect a clean game but do expect him to pay off his price tags. Looking at 5-6 innings 4-5Ks and 2-3 runs. DARK HORSE Dylan Bundy People tend to pick on Bundy and I have in the past as well, but I like this spot for him tonight against beat up Mariners team. The Mariners current lineup strikes out at a 28% clip and a .289 wOBA vs RHP. On the road Bundy has done well vs RHHs holding them to a .137 average and striking them out at a 37% clip in 15 innings. Looking at 6 innings 8Ks and 2 ERs(HRs from Vogelbach and Beckham). TEAM/S Minnesota Twins Sparkman vs LHHs .290 average, 50% HC, 2.6 HRs/9 and a low K rate. *Kepler, Polanco & Rosario all have over .200 ISO vs RHP with Kepler over .300. *Astudillo , Cave and Castro are cheaper options in play as well. *Kepler is my favorite bat from the Twins. Astudillo and Cave are both nice value plays with power upside. Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies face off against the low strike out arm of Erick Fedde in a nice hitters park with warm weather and wind. *Kingery, Hoskins and Bruce all have over a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. *Harper & Realmuto also hit well vs RHP and are I olay. Houston Astros – low ownership The Astros will see Green for about 2 innings and then get Nestor Cortez a lefty. This is a nice park upgrade for the Astros. The prices have come down making them easier to stack. Bregman, Altuve, Chirinos, Mariankick & Reddick all have over .200 ISO vs LHP on the year with White and Guriel also hitting well. CORE: Bregman, Altuve, Reddick, Chirinos VALUE: Marisnick, White- both HR potential vs LHP. BATS Kike Hernandez (2B/OF) Kike leading off vs Bumgarner is something I have been playing for well over a year now and he has not disappointed yet. Hitting 24 for 48 with 4 HRs and 6 doubles so far. Hernandez hits most of his HRs at home where the Dodgers are playing tonight with some wind blowing out. Excellent value play tonight and can be used along with Justin Turner and Max Muncy. Justin Upton (OF) Upton came back off the DL and crushed a HR in his first at bat. HRs in 2 of the 3 games he has played and faces a mediocre LHP tonight. Richards has been prone to HRs and has allowed a .412 wOBA and .301 ISO to RHHs. Another day and another Angels stack. Trout, Upton, Calhoun, Ohtani and Lucroy all in play. Kyle Schwarber Schwarber has hit 5 HRs and 3 doubles over the last 8 games with a HC rate of 44%. He faces a rookie pitcher who has thrown 15 innings allowing 22 hits and 16 runs in he majors. Excellent spot for Schwarber and some of the Cubs. Schwarber my favorite, but can play Bryant, Rizzo and Baez who all hit well vs RHP. Derek Dietrich Dietrich and the Reds face Jimmy Nelson who has struggled with control this year walking 6 batters over 7 innings and he allowed 8 runs in that timeframe. This year Dietrich has smashed RHP with a.406 wOBA , .410 ISO and 43% HC rate and has had multi 2-3 HR games. Like Dietrich, Winker and Puig as a sneaky trio tonight. VALUE BATS David Bote- hits RHP well with a .377 wOBA and .210. Sneaky HR potential. Pedro Severino- .441 wOBA and .331 ISO vs LHP Kevan Smith Brian Dozier