MLB DFS Fastballs & Flyballs 7/23/2019
Massive 15 game slate with a lot of choices and ways to go. In this article I have listed my favorite pitching options along with a few teams and some bats that are in good spots. PITCHERS Aaron Nola Nola has pitched well as of late putting up 30 or more DK pts in 3 of his last 6 games and 24 or more in 5 of the 6. The one game he had some problems was against the left handed heavy Dodgers where he gave up 3 HRs over 5 innings. Tonight he that has struggled vs RHP as of late and on the year posting around a .240 average and a 26% K rate. This team also struggles against the curve-ball with only one player over a .200 ISO and 2 players with over a .300 wOBA against this pitch. I can see him going 7 innings allowing 4-5 hits 1 ER and 9 Ks. Other Options: Chris Sale vs TB Rays in a park that favors pitchers. Sale high K pitcher going against a team that has struck out at a 30% clip vs LHP. Yu Darvish vs SF Giants in a park that favors pitchers. Darvish has done a better job at reducing his walks and becoming a bit more efficient. Giants do not have a lot of power, especially at home. VALUE ARM Merrill Kelly Kelly has pitched very well at home his year posting a 2.83 ERA and right around 1HR/9. The Os don’t hit well on the road vs RHP on the year and over the past 30 days they have a .200 average with a 28% K rate. They also don’t match up well vs Kelly’s pitch types. Looking at 6 innings 1-2 ERs and 6 Ks. TEAM/S * Hitters listed in order of preference. LA Dodgers (Late night Hammah!) Dodgers will face the Angels tonight at home and will see Taylor Cole for a few innings and then Felix Pena. Pena vs LHP this year: .270 average, .371 wOBA, 2.4 HRs/9 and 41% HC. Pena’s top 2 pitches: Slider & Sinker (70%)- Pederson and Bellinger have over a .300 ISO vs the slider and Muncy, Seager and Verdugo have over a .200 ISO. Against the sinker Muncy has close to a .500 wOBA and over a .400 ISO, while Pederson, Verdugo and Bellinger all have over a .300 ISO. 3 man stack: Muncy, Pederson, Verdugo 4 man stack: Muncy, Pederson, Verdugo, Seager 5 man stack: Muncy, Pederson, Verdugo, Seager, Hernandez (hits well vs RHP at home and Pena allowing 2.4 HRs/9 to RHHs on the road. Also .455 average with 2HRs over last 7 games). *Bellinger is definitely in play as well highest price Dodger right now. Pollack also has been swinging a hot bat. SD Padres The Padres are on the road tonight and face Jason Vargas. On the year Vargas has been decent, but I see the Padres doing some damage to him tonight. Over the last 2 games Vargas has allowed 9 runs over 11 innings along with 2 HRs in each of those games. The Padres have a good amount of power bats that hit well vs LHP and vs Vargas’s pitch types. Vargas does not throw hard at all with his FB running around 85 MPH with that pitch he throws in a changeup, sinker and some curveballs. Most of the Padres lineup murder fastballs under 90 MPH. The changeup is his next highest thrown pitch and Renfroe, Machado and Reyes all hit that pitch very well. Renfroe hits just all of Vargas pitch types well along with the sinker where he has close to a .500 wOBA and .400 ISO. Mets bullpen has allowed a 5.40 ERA and 1.8 HRs/9 over last 30 days. Core 3: Renfroe, Machado, Reyes Core 4: Renfroe, Machado, Reyes, Mejia Core 5: Renfroe, Machado, Reyes, Mejia, Urias *Margot has been hitting the ball well as of late and in play along with Tatis. *Strong consideration for the Astros vs Fiers STL Cardinals- low ownership multi-entry Cardinals face Chris Archer tonight who has pitched a bit better as of late, but still allowing runs and HRs. On the year Archer is allowing a .346 wOBA, 2HRs/9, 40% HC to RHHs and a 2.4 HRs/9 with a 45% HC and 45 % FB rate to LHHs. The Cardinals have some power bats that could take Archer deep tonight. O’Neill matches up well vs most of Archers pitch types. Goldschmidt is starting to show some power again. DeJong has power upside vs RHP. On the left side Edman and Fowler 1/2 both and Wong. Options 1: O’Neill, Goldschmidt, Wong Option 2: O’Neill, Gold, Folwer Option 3: Edman, Fowler, O’Neill FAVORITE BATS outside of favorite Teams Josh Donaldson Donaldson has been hitting the ball well as of late and is an above average hitter vs LHP. His battered ball stats over that lat 15 days are way up with a 60% HC, which is + 13 % on the year, exit velocity at 101 MPH (+8 MPH), and FB ratio +12 %. Tonight he faces Danny Duffy who throws the slider at a 40% clip and Donaldson has done very well vs this pitch along with Albies and Acuna. Can stack Donaldson, Albies, Riley who all hit LHP very well or Acuna, Swanson and Donaldson. Josh Bell Bell has been a bit cold as of late especially on the power side, but tonight he gets an excellent matchup to break his HR slump. Dakota Hudson comes to town allowing a .296 average, .380 wOBA, 46 % HC to LHHs on the year and a 2.3 HRs/9 to LHHs on the road. Hudson throws mostly sinkers and Bell has done very well vs this pitch with over a .400 wOBA and .200 ISO. VALUE BATS Cheslor Cuthbert 3B-BvP + hits sinker well. Scootah Gennett-2B- crushes sinkers. Neil Walker-1B Jason Kipnis-2B Max Stassi- C
The Dongers Club – Mon, July 22nd
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 7/22
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single-entry contest point of
The Dongers Club – Sun, July 21st
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
The Cycle 7/20
The Staff Castillo – He’s qualified for a QS in 6 of his last 7 starts, with one of those games coming against this St. Louis team. He still tends to walk too many batters, sometimes over throwing but does have the ability to strikeout double digits. Out of all the top arms, I do like Castillo’s Upside the most. Kershaw – He has looked great in his last 2 starts striking out 16, while only allowing 2 runs. He’s been dominant at home, going for over 40 fantasy points on FanDuel in 4 straight home games. Miami can be pesky, but that can also strikeout in handfuls. Mikolas – I’m not too thrilled about Mikolas tonight, but with a lack of cheap arms we’re going to ride his CG shutout. He doesn’t have the strikeout stuff he had last year, but on a slate where there’s some high price bats that we want all we can ask for is 30 points and we’re happy. The Bats Minnesota – Anderson has been decent this year, but there’s no way in hell i’m trusting a lefty in Minnesota tonight. This team destroys lefties from top to bottom Cleveland – Junis was unbelievable last start, but it’s a Saturday night in Cleveland. Lefties are going to rake. Houston – Jurado has given up 13 runs in his last 12 innings. He’s been beat up by righties giving up a .312 average and 7 bombs. Easy spot for Springer, Bregman, Yuli and Altuve.
The Dongers Club – Sat, July 20th
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
The Dongers Club – Fri, July 19th
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 7/19
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single-entry contest point of
The Dongers Club – Thu, July 18th
MLB DFS breakdown going through Weather, Pitchers, Stacks, Individual hitters, Lineup Construction, you name it, it’s here. Every day and always on point.
MLB DFS Fastballs & Flyballs 7/18/2019
This article is a quick overview tonight’s slate. I give a few pitching options l PITCHERS Trevor Bauer The Tigers are a team you can pick on most nights especially with RHP. They don’t have a lot of power and strike out at a 25+ % clip. Last night Clevinger went 6 innings and struck out 12 batters while only allowing 1 ER. Bauer has pitched against the Tigers twice this year one CGSO with 8 Ks and the other he did not make it out of the 4 inning. At home this year Bauer has struggled a bit, especially vs LHHs with a 2.7 HRs/9 (Kepler has 5/10 HRs). The Tigers got the best of Bauer last time, but I don’t see them doing that again. Looking at 7 innings 10 Ks and 2 ERs. Noah Syndergaard Synderaard has bee solid vs LHHs this year and he faces a left handed heavy Giants lineup in a park that favors pitchers. Dark Horse Merrill Kelly I am interested in Kelly for a few reasons. First, his price has dropped 2.4k since his last start. Second, he pitches better at home with a 3.09 ERA, increase in K rate at 24% and a minimal 3% walk rate. Also, his HRs/9 are lower at home. Over his last 9 games he has pitched 6 innings or more in 7 of those 9. The Brewers are definitely a powerful team, but have been weaker on the road this year with a .233 average and 24% K rate. Over the past 30 days they have only hit .188 on the road. I don’t expect Kelly to get out of this game clean, but I can see him going 5-6 innings with 2 ERs and 5-6 Ks. Worth the price. TEAM/S Houston Astros The Astros have an elite matchup vs Matt Harvey tonight. This year at home Harvey has been getting smashed allowing 2.5 HRs/9 and a 8.91 ERA along with a low K rate. Harvey is much worse vs LHHs, but allows power to both sides. Chirinos is one of my favorite C options and Marisnick has been hitting well making them both value plays. Astros have a powerful lineup and could put up 10 runs again tonight. Other options: Minnesota Twins vs Fiers. Cruz, Gonzalez, Cron, Arraez or Sano FAVORITE BATS George Springer Springer is crushing the ball vs RHP this year with over a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO. He has hit well vs the Angels pitching his series with 3 HRs in 3 games and a good chance he goes yard again tonight vs Harvey. On the year Harvey has allowed a 2.5 HRs/9 and a 8.91 ERA at home with a low K rate. This is an excellent spot for Springer and the Astros tonight. Jake Lamb The battered ball data over the past week or so suggests that Lamb will go on a tear. His HC, hit distance and FB ratios are all on the rise. He is facing Zach Davies who has some issues with LHHs allowing a .340 wOBA and 40% FB rate. Davies also throws the sinker over 50% of the time and Lamb absolutely destroys this pitch. Lamb going yard tonight! Matt Olson Olson has a 12 game hit streak going right now with 4 HRs in that time frame. Tonight he faces Kyle Gibson who has been up and down most of the year. Gibson throws sinkers and sliders about 40% of the time and Olson has done very well vs both of these pitches. Nice park upgrade for the As tonight. VALUE BATS Jesse Winker- Hudson allows close to a .400 wOBA to LHHs. Winker crushes RHP and sinkers. Andrelton Simmons- Miley throws cutter 50% of the time. Simmons crushes this pitch. Jake Marisnick- hot bat and price down. Robinson Chirinos- Favorite Catcher Scooter Gennett- similar to Winker. Gennett HR coming soon. Ryan Zimmerman Dexter Fowler