2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview
2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview The conclusion of the football season means that fantasy fanatics can now prepare for spring training and the upcoming baseball season. Courtesy of Baseball America, NFBC Hall-of-Fame analyst Shawn Childs takes a deep dive into the 2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview. Starting Pitching SP Jesus Luzardo Over five seasons in the minors, Luzardo went 16-9 with a 3.01 ERA and 272 strikeouts over 236.1 innings. After being eased into 2020, Luzardo failed to live up to expectations over his nine starts (3.83 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 49.1 innings). He didn’t allow a run in four appearances (20.1 innings) while having one disaster showing (six runs and 11 baserunners over 3.1 innings). Luzardo lost his command (4.5 walks per nine) and confidence in 2021, resulting in 20 home runs over 95.1 innings. Batters beat him to the tune of a .280 batting average. He had an ERA higher than 5.25 every month. In 2022, he dominated in his first start (one run over five innings with 12 strikeouts). Luzardo battled his command (15 walks) over his next five matchups, leading to too many rough innings (4.50 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, and four home runs over 24 innings). His struggles were tied to a forearm issue that led to 11 weeks on the injured list. Luzardo reached ace status over his final 71.1 innings (3.03 ERA, 0.981 WHIP, 0.198 BAA, and 79 strikeouts). Last year, Luzardo gave the fantasy market a nice season despite moments of duress. Over five starts starting on May 21st, he allowed 18 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings, where his ERA (6.15) was well off the WHIP (1.101). Later in the year, his arm struggled to get batters out in four of seven matchups (24 runs, 54 baserunners, nine home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). Luzardo gave up 19 of his 22 home runs over 528 at-bats to righties, with a .248 batting average. In addition, he was a significant liability on the road (4.48 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and .276 BAA over 70.1 innings). His average fastball (96.8) was the best of his career. Luzardo had one dominating pitch (slider – .229 with 115 strikeouts over 210 at-bats), but it had less value against right-handed batters (.275 BAA). He gained an edge with his four-seamer (.253 BAA) and changeup (.245 BAA) with more success with a low-volume sinker (.275 BAA vs. lefties ~ .207 BAA). Fantasy Outlook: With a 32-start season on his resume, plus 200+ strikeouts and better command, Luzardo will be treated like a foundation SP2 in the high-stakes market based on his ADP (81) in early February. On the downside, he had a jump of 75.2 innings from 2022 and questions of what happens on his down days. In five of his 13 road starts, Luzardo gave up two runs or fewer when pitching at least five innings. I don’t want to overlook his potential injury risk due to his forearm injury in 2022. I’m hoping for a great spring and a rise-up draft board to remove him from my thought process. He is trending closer to a 3.00 ERA with 225 strikeouts if Luzardo can pitch 190.0+ innings and better success away from home. SP Eury Perez Miami hooked a gem with the signing of Perez out of the Dominican Republic. His minor league career started at age 17 in 2021. Over 78.0 innings at A and High A, he posted a 1.96 ERA and 108 strikeouts. The following season, a lat injury cost him about five weeks of development at AA. When on the mound, Perez pitched at a high level over his first 61.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, .188 BAA, and 87 strikeouts. He tripped up over three appearances (13 runs, 27 baserunners, and three home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), leading to a trip to the injured list. His season ended with four shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Perez shined over his first six starts (2.32 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, .148 BAA, and 42 strikeouts) last year at AA before getting his call up to the majors. Other than a disastrous game on July 1st (six runs and seven baserunners over one-third of an inning), he handled himself well over 11 matchups in the majors (2.36 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, .208 BAA, and 61 strikeouts over 53.1 innings). Miami shut him down around the All-Star break for three weeks to conserve innings. Unfortunately, Perez ran out of gas over his 10 appearances between AA and the majors (4.74 ERA, eight home runs, 59 strikeouts over 43.2 innings). His average fastball (97.5) is already one of the best in the game in velocity. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.200 BAA), curveball (.114 BAA), and changeup (.103 BAA). Perez had the most struggles with his four-seamer (.287 BAA and 12 home runs over 181 at-bats). Fantasy Outlook: Perez will turn 21 on April 15th while already offering beast upside, along with an edge in size (6’8” and 220 lbs.). Last year, he pitched 128.0 innings, putting him on track to throw at least 160.0 innings. Home runs were a problem last year, and Perez must pitch better late in the season to help fantasy teams win league championships. His ADP (80) in NFBC in early January ranked him neck and neck with Jesus Luzardo. With a step up in command, he has the potential and pitches to post a sub-3.00 ERA with a run at 200 strikeouts. Don’t be shy, especially if he is discounted. SP Trevor Rogers In the 2017 June Amateur Draft, Miami drafted Rogers with the 13th overall pick. However, a left forearm injury pushed back his debut in the minors until late May in 2018. He struggled over 17 starts at A ball (5.82 ERA). Rogers looked worthy of his high draft selection in 2019 (2.90 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 136.1 innings) while seeing regression after his promotion from High A
A Deep Dive into Winning with Baseball Metrics
Shawn Childs is a 7-figure lifetime winner in high-stakes fantasy sports. Yes, you read that right. His analytical and thoughtful approach will have you well-prepared on draft day to select sleepers before they break out! Your opponents will be jealous. You’ll be bragging all season long sitting atop the standings. The introduction and advancement of analytics have drastically changed Major League Baseball. That’s also true in Rotisserie and fantasy baseball, where new metrics can make a huge impact on the upcoming season. FPGscore The development of FPGscore started with the theory around Average Player Scores. When drafting, it is challenging to determine a baseball player’s value when you have multiple positions in the fantasy baseball market, never mind numerous scoring categories. The average player theory is a way to compare a player’s value for overall impact in team-building in 5 X 5 roto formats and within the spectrum of each position or category. Once we have a baseline of the average player, we can determine which players have the most significant edge. After establishing these scores at each position, the next step is then comparing the best option at other positions. Each season, the player pool changes in the fantasy baseball world. Some positions will have more depth, and others will only have a few reliable options. Therefore, when a fantasy manager is preparing to do his draft prep, he wants to find each position’s hidden values. Doing this allows drafters to select the most potent options at the other positions early in the draft. I developed a way to determine each player’s value with each category relevant to their production. For example, hitters have five offensive categories (batting average, runs, home runs, RBI, and stolen bases). Pitchers also have five categories (wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and saves). With these scores, a fantasy drafter can quickly look at stats to see which players have the most value, either by last year’s stats or this year’s projections from any source. When using projections, a fantasy manager’s success will only be as strong as their ability to interpret information. Therefore, finding the best source for that information is essential. Our FPGscore is built for 12-team, 5-by-5 Roto leagues with once-a-week pitching moves. I could modify these options for 10-team and 15-team leagues in the future, and we may even add bi-weekly pitching move formats. The most challenging part for any fantasy gamer to understand is draft rankings or cheat sheets due to the underlying information behind each player’s profile. At any position in baseball, I may only like a handful of players. When I rank them, I can’t leave players I don’t like off the cheat sheet, and it wouldn’t be fair to list them poorly based on my opinion. Here’s a look at the midpoint values in 2022 in a field of 2,388 teams in all 10 categories: BA: .2525, R: 980, HR: 265, RBI: 954, SB: 113, W: 87, SV: 57, ERA: 3.505, WHIP: 1.164, K: 1,318 Average Draft Position The fantasy market uses ADPs (average draft position) to prepare for the upcoming draft season. ADPs give drafters a feel for a player’s value in the open market. It is a great tool, but a fantasy player must understand the value of the information. ADPs from mock drafts have less merit as all teams don’t complete their drafts, and many drafters may lose interest at some point during the draft. The best information in fantasy baseball comes from drafters playing for real money or fantasy managers competing in a real league that will be played out during the season. Value of FPGscores FPGscore can work with any projections to deliver results. First, I research all 30 baseball teams. I then do our team profiles for each team’s projections. With this information, I provide rankings based on the FPGscores. Also, I can back-check the results from the previous season to see how each player stacked up against their competition. The goal is to compare players with different skill sets and find which options have the most value to a fantasy team. At the same time, I can deliver weekly rankings based on playing time and opportunity. I break the season into 27 weeks (two half weeks – Week 1 and the All-Star break) to develop the weekly results. If a player is projected to play in seven games, he’ll have a better chance to produce stats in the counting categories. More playing time doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll have a higher score than a player with a much higher skill set with five games. Note: FPGscore equations are adjusted each season for the current playing field in major league baseball. If home runs decline, a big power hitter will be rewarded for his edge in home runs. Likewise, an elite base stealer will have a higher impact in the stolen base category if steals are scarce. Wins Category The midpoint for wins in 2022 was 87, divided into nine pitching slots to come up with 9.111 wins per pitcher. I then used the overall standing from a league with 2,388 teams to determine the points gained for a win or lack of a win. First, I used +/- 750 spots in the overall standing to get a range of points gained or lost from the midpoint of wins. It was amazing to see 1,575 teams fall between 76 and 96 wins. Next, I divided 1,500 overall points by 19 wins to find that each win was worth 78.95 overall points. There were 199 leagues in this competition, so each win within a single league environment was worth .39673 league points. ERA and WHIP Categories The midpoint in innings for the ERA and WHIP categories rose to 1,313 in 2022 (1,344 in 2019 and 1,269 in 2021). ERA (3.791) and WHIP (1.188) showed improvement last season. I then subtracted the innings pitched from 1,313. Next, I multiplied that number times (.3894 = 3.505/9). This data gave me the total number of runs
The Dongers Club – Thu, Aug 20th
SLATE INTRO I did my weather analysis too early yesterday and with lots of site migrations going on it was a challenge for me to get the update in that the ATL/WAS game was likely going to get PPD. I got this update into the SLACK channel but even then it came very late for a lot of folks. The issue here remains that both FD and DK have not built into their sites the ability for a game which never starts to unlock. I understand that they have this 2016 brain lock mentality that ownership % is so important that you cannot show player ownership and then allow someone to change off that player to another spot. Normally I would agree, but in the case where the player isn’t playing at all then the point about ownership % being important is completely lost. It doesn’t matter. The player is getting a 0. Of course you want to swap off them… It’s bad customer service and design and leaves a poor taste in the users mouths while also making the competitiveness of the product far less. WEATHER I believe we should be all clear today. This is a very good pitching slate and I envision there being only a couple automatic spots for offense tonight. So it’s telling me that our lineup construction today allows for some ole “DFS Game Theory” (a term I hate) tonight when it comes to blindly picking your pitchers. So follow along good friends, follow along… Jose Berrios He is my top and favorite arm on both sites. He has the same upside that Bieber has and the Twins are not losing this game to the Brewers. I joked last night that as Milwaukee was hitting more and more homers that we had concluded our one day for 2020 of using Brewers hitters and now we must refresh our memory that they’re terrible against RHP and all those guys who had big games last night (Braun, Avisail specifically) are going to go back to sleep tonight. Berrios has fallen into that ‘Bauer’ category that I labeled on Trevor last season when he started to see the AL Central teams far too much. Berrios is a very talented arm but at times struggles with knowing how to pitch out of trouble and so far this season he has faced the Royals twice and two other AL Central teams (White Sox/Indians) which have made him not look so great. But the swing and miss stuff was there last game and facing a team in Milwaukee which doesn’t know him very well is a prime spot to get Berrios going. Clayton Kershaw Ho-hum. Another 7 inning, 3 hit, 5 strike out performance from Kershaw tonight. The Mariners have been a little pesky and you must not come into this play with blinders thinking Kershaw puts up a ridiculous score against them. But he won’t get blown up and he won’t lose tonight. Sonny Gray I’ll make this short and sweet. When I rank Berrios-Kershaw-Gray in terms of is most likely to strike out 10 batters, Gray is #1. When I rank them in terms of who could get into trouble and struggle to get through 5 with a win, Gray would rank #3. So that’s why I am not leading with him today, but Berrios-Gray combination on DraftKings is very ideal today. Outside of the Box Trevor Williams Not only am I not looking at Bieber tonight, but I am not using the Indians bats against Williams. He’s really become a one trick pony and that one trick is that only RH bats hit him hard. The entire Cleveland lineup is full of switch hitters and the Indians haven’t exactly been the most consistent hitting team this season. In a park that isn’t favorable to RH bats (granted, Franmil can hit a ball out of Australia) we can take a gamble on Williams as a ‘darkhorse’ type SP2 on DraftKings. The thing is, I don’t know that you’ll need his price discount today though. So it’s merely a play if you are going for an expensive 5 man stack on DK. Guys I am not on. Shane Bieber – Josh Bell takes him deep. Boston Red Sox Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley Jr. This is the game of the day and the Orioles certainly look tempting as Anthony Santander continues to make his case for AL MVP honors (Psst. He won’t get it). But it’s the Boston side which I am interested in today. Baltimore has once again struggled to pitch at home this season and while I expect them to split or win this series overall, I don’t see Asher Woj keeping the ball in the park tonight as Boston looks to maybe have a little road success in a spot where they have hit well in the past. Oh look, JD Martinez might actually care about playing tonight – but don’t necessarily just focus on the “known” Boston guys because it’s JBJ in Baltimore time. Oakland Athletics Marcus Semien, Roman Laureano I don’t look at VEGAS totals when determining pitchers or hitters. Nor the odds on games. But I was shocked after I looked closer that this game has a nice 9 total. It makes sense because the inter-league games have been fairly good for offense in this weird season and Alex Young does not have enough quality pitches to sustain as a starter. CATCHER Chance Sisco … As long as Baltimore has him leading off at home and he is under 4k on DraftKings he is your top play. Austin Barnes FIRST BASE Mitch Moreland Josh Bell Austin Slater SECOND BASE Chad Pinder Jake Cronenworth This position. It blows. THIRD BASE Great position to day. Justin Turner … Normally good versus fastballs, Turner has been struggling with them this year. Today he gets Kikuchi and he will kick one out of
The Dongers Club – Wed, Aug 19th
SLATE INTRO 11 games today, both sites lock at 7:05. I have been really bad on DK lately. I am focusing to clean up the pitching plays there for everyone. They sometimes have been good but not in the right range given the bats I like and honestly trying to like a play one site versus another is very challenging with the way pricing is. It will clean up going forward. WEATHER No issues except for the fact that supposedly California is on fire and the smoke/air quality is bad. Awesome. Gerrit Cole I really thought his last start was the one where he would come out and reach over 60 points on FanDuel and quite honestly he almost got there. Today’s a far better strikeout spot so with him being at home and getting very comfortable this season he’ll likely dominate the Rays today and be a lock FD SP1 even though there are some affordable second tier options. Cole wont burn you and you can find some cheap bats on FD to go with him. He’ll beat deGrom — again! (I’m cheating because last time deGrom got scratched). I am locking in Cole on both sites today once again because there’s value in the bats. Casey Mize / Jesus Luzardo – DK Combination I don’t roster rookie pitchers making their debuts, and I am really stretching it here to allow myself to break that rule as there’s only one other current young pitcher I’ll consider it for. Mize to me has as much upside today as someone like Paddack who is coming off a bad start and is in my mind not going to break the slate. Mize says he is ramped up to go a full outing and he is one of those special arms who has the ability to deliver a Strasburg like debut performance in his first start. Chicago will strikeout against RHP at a good clip and even though he’s on the road, he doesn’t exactly have road fans to deal with or anything. Luzardo does not have a great K% upside against the Diamondbacks, but he has good ballpark on his side and he’ll not have to be forced into a rush start like he was over the weekend. His price point is appropriate considering Oakland pitchers (and young guys like him) don’t go deep. But if we’re gonna go young, lets do it with both these guys on DK. If Luzardo is out because of air quality then on DK consider Pablo Lopez … Outside of the Box Lance Lynn Lynn is your pivot away from Paddack in a game that Texas will sneak up and win today. Lynn struggles with LH bats and the Padres bats are Cronenworth, Girsham and Hosmer. So yeah, Hosmer might be a problem but otherwise, Lynn will have a very solid performance and makes a nice low owned DK play today. Guys I am not on. Chris Paddack Tyler Glasnow – What? No. deGrom – Prefer Cole given deGroms injury challenges and I KNOW the Yankees will win tonight, cant say that about the Mets. Washington Nationals Trea Turner, Carter Kieboom, Juan Soto, Luis Garcia Happy Trea Turner day. They will win running away tonight. Milwaukee Brewers Ryan Braun, Justin Smoak, Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich, Manny Pina Sometimes you gotta write up a bad offense in a great spot and Milwaukee/Minnesota tonight is one of my favorite landing spot games. Coming off 8 innings of not hitting anything Maeda threw they get Rich Hill making his 2020 debut in Target Field tonight. If you want to roll with Cole on DK, the Brewers are in play. Good ole Jedd Gyorko batting cleanup at $2200 on FanDuel today. Teams to keep on your radar LA Dodgers: The only thing that could make me consider these punks is if they got to face a RHP who throws nothing but fastballs. And son of a gun that’s exactly what they have today in Taijuan Walker. Loaded bonus is the Mariners bullpen. The only downside here is that they’re heavy in prices but worth it when they rake. Minnesota Twins: This is better spot for Sano than Cruz or Garver IMO. Sano and Buxton are the plays. Oakland Athletics: Canha, Olson, Chapman Atlanta Braves: Ozuna/Duvall CATCHER Yan Gomes Austin Barnes FIRST BASE Ryan Braun Miguel Sano Eric Thames Matt Olson – Oakland if they play will get to Kelly, just dont know that you need them today with some value spots elsewhere. SECOND BASE Rougned Odor Luis Garcia Garrett Hampson THIRD BASE Nolan Arenado Carter Kieboom Justin Turner Jedd Gyorko – Ugh… But yeah, he’s got a good spot today SHORTSTOP Gimme all the Trea day. Trea Turner Corey Seager OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Outfield isnt great today, get yourself one stud, two values and load up on Cole. Juan Soto Roadie Bellinger Christian Yelich Avisail Garcia Outfield – Tier 2 Mark Canha George Springer Kyle Tucker Outfield – Value Adam Duvall Adam Eaton Trea Turner – SS – Nationals – Chairman of the Dongers Club Ryan Braun – 1B – Brewers Avisail Garcia – OF – Brewers Nolan Arenado – 3B – Rockies Roadie Bellinger – OF – Dodgers Yan Gomes – C – Nationals Rougned Odor – 2B – Rangers Mark Canha – OF – Athletics BONUS ………………….. Adam Duvall – OF – Braves
The Dongers Club – Tue, August 18th
SLATE INTRO So much for me starting things off with “hey, we have 15 games and no 7 inning games and everything seems fine”. Royals and Reds game is PPD to tomorrow out of caution and that removes a good
The Dongers Club – Mon, August 17th
SLATE INTRO Update – Ignore everything I wrote below about this slate not having any site issues. FanDuel is absolutely clueless as they are releasing some update today to sync betting accounts for users in PA and NJ and it
The Dongers Club – Sun, August 16th
SLATE INTRO So here’s something you don’t see every day. It looks like DK might have hired FD people to run their site because they only went with 8 games on the MAIN slate today (I have a theory on
The Dongers Club – Sat, August 15th
SLATE INTRO I’ll spare you the entire rant I have about the incompetence we see daily with DK and FD and just say that FD at least made right by their users with full refunds due to site outages yesterday. They still have 100 other issues that are just inexcusable but at least they did right there. 7PM lock (one of my big gripes for today) with only a few games on it. WEATHER I just want to point out KC and MIN could have very easily played last night. That is all. Washington @ Baltimore – Large PPD Risk here. This slate sucks and off last night and all the issues I outlined above (which was only 50% of them) I am almost tempted to not even play this horrific slate of games. Fear not, I am playing… Walker Buehler Walker is VERY close to breaking out with a huge game and I have already looked ahead at his next projected start. We will be 100% on Buehler then. But today I don’t think he has a smash game, however he’ll be good relative to the rest of the arms going on this slate. James Paxton Boston has more dangerous hitters vs LHP for the first time in a while — but that’s mostly due to their team sucking offensively. Paxton had great velocity in his last start and so naturally he’ll probably die somewhere in the third inning tonight and go on the IL. But if he manages to not injure himself, he’s gotta be on your radar. Outside of the Box Asher Wojciechowski There’s not much in the way of getting weird tonight and lots of the Nationals should be chalky if the game plays. This is a leverage pivot where I don’t see Washington doing much outside of Soto/Thames being logical plays for obvious reasons. Guys I am not using Patrick Corbin … Like the Os to win. Cristian Javier … Too shaky. Oakland Athletics Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Khris Davis Park is playing better for homers this season and mid-day game should help that out as well. Gausman is coming off a really good start but the Athletics hammer split finger pitches, specifically Canha-Olson-Chapman and Piscotty. Like Khris Davis as a good value HR play. San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers San Diego has to be a top betting play today. They got shut down last night in what was a very snooze-fest type game but it’s Tatis-Machado-Myers who are mashing LHP this season and should have a great game in a park where you simply don’t see LHP do well. Houston Astros Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman Looks like at home they have their heads out of their behinds and are beating up on the lowly Mariners. Seattle has a terrible pen and Margevicius is a profile Houston has done well against. CATCHER Martin Maldanado Austin Hedges FIRST BASE Renato Nunez Yuli Gurriel SECOND BASE Jose Altuve Ketel Marte THIRD BASE Pay up here Matt Chapman Alex Bregman Manny Machado SHORTSTOP Pay up here as well… Trevor Story Fernando Tatis Jr. Gleyber Torress – Signs of life. Maybe he is only good without Stanton/Judge? OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore George Springer Mike Trout Joey Gallo Kole Calhoun Outfield – Tier 2 Yordan Alvarez Starling Marte Stephen Piscotty/Mark Canha Thomas Pham Outfield – Value Khris Davis Wil Myers BEST CONTEST REFRESHER These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds: 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it’s the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what’s the point? These type of contests usually aren’t as common and they’re a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They’re smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these. Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better. Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren’t about making money. Sorry. Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you’re in a slump, play one of these. Matt Chapman – 3B – Athletics – Chairman of the Dongers Club Trevor Story – SS Joey Gallo – OF Wil Myers – OF Jose Altuve – 2B George Springer – OF Renato Nunez – 1B Austin Hedges – C BONUS ……………….. Cody Bellinger – OF
MLB DFS DarkHorse 8/15/2020
The dark horse is a pitcher that few are looking at but has some potential data points to look at which could deliver a nice value play into your lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings. Nathan Eovaldi (Boston Red Sox) vs NY Yankees The Red Sox are with out Chris Sale this year which makes Eovaldi the #1. He has done fairly well going at least 5 innings in each start and threw right around 90 pitches. He throws heat at 97+ and generates a decent amount of strike outs (10 in last game vs the Jays). He has solid command and the potential is there each night if he can limit the home runs. Tonight he gets another chance to pitch against one of his former teams the Yankees. The Yankees have a right handed heavy lineup that is missing two of the top power bats(Stanton and Judge). Eovaldi has been solid vs RHH’s producing a 50% ground ball rate along with 23% K rate and has limited he long ball. The Yankees lineup has a few players that are striking out at over a 20% clip this year vs RHP with a few over 30%. I don’t think he gets out of this game clean. Either Brett Gardner or Mike Taucman will take him deep. Eovaldi throws mostly 97+ mph fastball, cutters and splitters and most of the Yankee bats don’t hit these pitches well. It will be a cooler night in New York with 10 mph winds blowing in which will help Eovaldi out. I am looking at him to go 6 innings get around 7-8Ks and allow a run or two. I don’t see many looking at him today as most don’t use pitchers vs Yankees.
MLB DFS Dark Horse 8/14/2020
The dark horse is a pitcher that nobody is looking at but has some potential data points to look at which could deliver a nice value play into your lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings. Today I have two pitchers. With a 13 game slate and some high end arms should have lower ownership on some solid pitchers in good spots. Second Dark Horse should come in at -.5 to 5% ownership and has higher risk. Calling him the Crazy Dark Horse. Best played in MME contests. Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers) Woodruff has pitched well this year so far posting a 2.53 ERA striking out 26 batters over 21.1 innings. He has thrown 90+ pitches in three of the four game s and 85 in the other , showing they will let him go deeper into the games. In 57 at bats Woodruff has limited the Cubs to a .228 average and allowed only one HR while striking them out at a 35% clip. Add in that the weather is cooler in Chicago with some wind blowing in which will help out Woodruff. The Cubs current lineup has a 26% K rate vs RHP. I can see Woodruff going 5-6 innings allowing a run and striking out 7-8 Cubs today. With a larger slate and all the higher end arms he should come in around 5-8%. Yusei Kikuchi (Seattle Mariners) Ok so scroll down…..keep going… yeah that guy Kkuchi. Yes he was a nightmare last year and liked to pick on him. Had a low K rate and gave up the long ball. This year he has made some improvement and increased his velocity by about 4 mph throwing his fastball around 96+. He is also throwing gtd cutter this year around 45% of the time. Nice improvement so far with a 25% over all K rate(22% to LHHs and 27% to RHH’s). In limited inning has produced a 60% ground ball rate which has helped keep the ball in the park with zero HRs so far this year. Yes he is throwing against the Astros Atl in Houston tonight. They have actually been a bit cold Hitting only .213 with 4 HRs over the past 7 days. Definitely a riskier play but I will have him in a multi entry contest. Cheap option that should come in at around 1-2% and can see him going 5 innings allowing a run or two and striking out 5-6 Astros.