2024 New York Yankees Preview
2024 New York Yankees Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 New York Yankees preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This 2024 New York Yankees Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The Yankees saw their six-year playoff run last season when the Orioles, Rays, and Blue Jays knocked them to fourth in the AL East despite a winning record (82-80). Their last World Series win and appearance came in 2009. New York has 11 playoff trips over the past 15 seasons. Their pitching staff ranked 10th in ERA (3.97 – fourth in their division) while having the best bullpen (35-30 with a 3.34 ERA, 625 strikeouts, and 44 saves over 619 innings). The Yankees slipped to 25th in runs scored (673) and RBIs (650) despite having more success in home runs (219 – 9th). Their base runners stole 100 bags while getting caught 30 times (76.9%). New York had the second-worst batting average (.227) and on-base percentage (.298). In the offseason, the Yankees acquired OF Juan Soto and OF Trent Grisham from the Padres for C Kyle Higashioka, SP Michael King, SP Drew Thorpe, SP Jhony Brito, and SP Randy Vasquez. Boston shipped New York OF Alex Verdugo for SP Richard Fitts, RP Greg Weissert, and SP Nicholas Judice. New York claimed 2B Jeter Downs, OF Oscar Gonzalez, and OF Bubba Thompson off waivers for minor league depth. Their starting lineup has to find a way to wash out some of their fading veteran players. Soto should be a good fit for their home park, but he will be a free agent next season. The Yankees need SS Anthony Volpe and C Austin Wells to emerge as potential offensive building blocks. New York must develop the backend of their starting rotation and hope their bullpen pitches well for another year. Gerrit Cole is the only edge, while Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes come off injury seasons. This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook. Next up, is a deep dive into the 2024 New York Yankees Preview. Starting Lineup OF Juan Soto The dream of Soto being a difference-maker in batting average over the past two seasons was a flawed theory. His contact batting average (.297) was a disaster in 2022, and he failed to reach his previous bar set in 2019 (.373), 2020 (.429), and 2021 (.384) last year (.355). His regression in 2023 at the plate came from taking too many called third strikes (51 times) while looking to walk. Soto finished with strength again in his average hit rate (1.891) while regaining his clutch ability with runners on base (RBI rate – 19). Last year, he continued to have one of the best walk rates (18.6 – 19.0 in his career) in baseball, but he struck out 18.2% of the time (14.3% from 2020 to 2022). Soto was a below-par hitter vs. lefties (.256/26/8/21 over 172 at-bats) but better than the previous season (.210/31/7/23 over 195 at-bats). He saved his year with a monster September (.340/26/10/29/6 over 97 at-bats). Soto still hits too many ground balls (51.0% – 49.2 in his career). His HR/FB rate (24.5) has been higher than 22.0% every year except in 2022 (17.2%) when his swing path was the most balanced (21/42/37) of his career. His flyball rate (32.4) has never been higher than 37.2%. He ranked 11th in exit velocity (93.2), 16th in hard-hit rate (55.3), and 50th in barrel rate (13.0). Fantasy Outlook: Soto finished 15th in FPGscore (5.98) for hitters last year while playing 162 games. The change in ballpark should treat him well in power and batting average, but the Yankee’s starting lineup lacks top-of-the-order bats. I decided to put Soto batting leadoff due to him getting on base so much and Judge having massive power behind him. His ADP (13) places him at the back of the first round in 12 and 15 team drafts. I expect 40 home runs with some help in speed and batting average. His floor should be 100 runs and 100 RBIs if his supporting cast plays much better than they did in New York in 2022. OF Aaron Judge Judge finished first in FPGscore (16.89) for hitters in 2022, meaning a fantasy team that drafted him gained almost 17 points in roto standing by adding him to their 13 other players with league-average production. For the third time in his career, he finished with over 540 at-bats. The difference between 2021 and 2022 was 20 more at-bats with an improvement of 44 runs, 23 home runs, 33 RBIs, and 25 percentage points in batting average. His stats last season, prorated over 550 at-bats, came to 118 runs, 55 home runs, 112 RBIs, and four steals. In 2023, Judge missed 56 games with hip and top injuries, with the latter costing him the most time. Judge’s contact batting average has been higher than .400 in four of his past five seasons while continuing to have an elite average hit rate (2.296). His RBI chances (2.2 per game) were well below in 2022 (2.66 per game), with no change in his RBI rate (16.6). His strikeout rate (28.4) almost matched his career average (28.7%) but off his gains over the previous two
2024 Boston Red Sox Preview
2024 Boston Red Sox Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Boston Red Sox preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The high-flying days of the Rex Sox have left the building over the past two seasons, leading to back-to-back last-place finishes in the AL East despite winning 78 games in both years. Boston has had one playoff appearance over the past five seasons, coming after an excellent run for their franchise from 2003 to 2018 (four World Series titles and 10 trips to the postseason). The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview breaks down their 2024 chances. For the Red Sox to push their way back into contention for a division title, they must rebuild the front of their starting rotation and find an elite shutdown arm to close games. Last year, Boston finished 21st in the majors in ERA (4.52) while serving up 208 home runs (24th). Their bullpen ranked 20th (30-28 with a 4.32 ERA, 43 saves, and 636 strikeouts over 655.2 innings). The offense was much more competitive in runs (772 – 11th) and RBIs (734 – 11th) while lacking power bats (182 home runs – 18th). Their baserunners stole 112 bags in 138 tries (81.2%), placing them below the league average. Boston moved on from SP Chris Sale, leading to the addition of the talented 2B Vaughn Grissom, who lacked a starting opportunity for the Braves. The Red Sox added OF Tyler O’Neill in a deal with the Cardinals for P Nick Robertson and P Victor Santos. The only other move of value was the signing of SP Lucas Giolito. Boston lost OF Adam Duvall, 3B Justin Turner, SP James Paxton, SP Corey Kluber, and SS Adalberto Mondesi to free agency, but all of these players have yet to sign with a new team. The Red Sox invested in SS Trevor Story in 2022, but he only played in 137 games over the past two years. 3B Rafael Devers is the foundation piece to the offense, while OF Masataka Yoshida handled himself well in his first year in the majors. The development of 1B Triston Casas and OF Jarren Duran late in 2023 should lead to more competitive production this season. Some of Boston’s top-hitting prospects struggled last year, leaving a potential void in their development system. The ninth inning belongs to CL Kenley Jansen, but his glory days are barely in the rearview mirror. The Red Sox starting rotation lacks star power at the front end, but all five options have a chance to beat their stats from last year. This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook. Up next, the 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview. Starting Lineup 2B Vaughn Grissom Over four seasons in the minors, Grissom hit .320 with 232 runs, 32 home runs, 1,194 RBIs, and 59 stolen bases over 1,263 at-bats. His strikeout rate (13.6) and walk rate (10.4) have top-of-the-order upside. Last year, his bat showed growth at High A (.312/62/11/55/20 over 298 at-bats), leading to a promotion to AA (.363 over 91 at-bats with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and seven steals). In 2023, the fantasy market (as did I) expected Grissom to win the starting shortstop job out of spring training after a productive year (.324/72/14/67/27 over 389 at-bats) between High A and AA. The Braves also gave him 41 major league games of experience in 2022 (.291/24/5/18/5 over 141 at-bats). Unfortunately, his defense at shortstop was trailing, leading to him starting the year at AAA. Atlanta called him up in mid-April, but Grissom failed to make an impact over 65 at-bats (.277/5/0/70) while making six errors at short over his 19 games. His bat played well at AAA (.330 with 74 runs, eight home runs, 61 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 397 at-bats) while underperforming expectations in power and speed. The Braves gave him 70 starts at shortstop and 31 at second base in the minors, with 10 combined errors (SS – 9 and 2B – 1). Grissom remained challenging to strike out (14.1%) with growth in his walk rate (12.0). His HR/FB rate at AAA (8.0%) was well below his outcome at High A (11.8%), AA (12.5%), and MLB (15.2%) in 2022. He has maintained a high contact batting average in his career while controlling the strike zone well. Fantasy Outlook: Other than batting average, Grissom’s 2023 stats won’t draw much attention from some shallow-digging fantasy drafters. He profiles well to bat leadoff Boston this year, with a run at a 20/35 season with 550 at-bats. His ADP (340) in the NFBC in early January should shine brightly for the fantasy market. Rarely will a fantasy drafter find a potential edge in batting average with supporting home runs and stolen bases this late in a draft. By the end of March, he should move closer to the 13th round in 15-team formats if Boston hints that he’ll hit high in their batting order. Grissom will outperform many middle infielders selected ahead of him, making him a breakaway layup based on his current draft value. SS Trevor Story In his two seasons with Boston, Story missed 187 games, with three stints (wrist,
2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview
2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Baltimore Orioles preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The Orioles came into last season with an over/under of 76.5 wins. They won the AL East with 101 victories while making the postseason for the first time since 2016. Since 1997, Baltimore has had one other division title (2014 – 96-66) with two other playoff appearances. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview showcases the upstart young birds. Their pitching staff ranked seventh in the majors in ERA (3.89) while finishing with the fifth-best bullpen in ERA (3.55). Their relievers had 44 wins, 21 losses, 49 saves, and 614 strikeouts over 575.1 innings. The Orioles allowed the fourth-lowest total in home runs (177) with the most innings pitched (1,354.1). Baltimore scored the seventh most runs (807), with the same ranking in RBIs (780). On the downside, they finished below the league average in home runs (183 – 17th). Their base stealers ran 138 times, leading to 114 stolen bases (82.6%). In the offseason, their top signing was RP Craig Kimbrel to help cover the loss of Felix Bautista, who had TJ surgery last October. The Orioles claimed OF Sam Hilliard off waivers to add power to their bench. Baltimore lost SP Kyle Gibson, SP Jack Flaherty, RP Jorge Lopez, OF Aaron Hicks, 2B Adam Frazier, RP Shintaro Fujinami, and RP Mychal Givens to free agency. The top of the Orioles’ starting lineup has two rising stars (3B Gunnar Henderson and C Adley Rutschman), while SS Jackson Holliday looks poised to make the jump to the majors in 2024 at age 20. 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Cedric Mullins, OF Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays add veteran depth with upside. The future success of Baltimore lies in the development of SP Grayson Rodriguez and SP Kyle Bradish. SP John Means and Dean Kremer should be better in 2024 while offering competitive innings at the backend of the Orioles’ rotation. Tyler Wells showed growth last year while working primarily as a starting pitcher. Baltimore may need his arm on the bullpen this season. The ninth inning won’t be as shutdown as 2023, but Craig Kimbrel has plenty of major league experience closing games. He has elite upside if Kimbrel throws more strikes and minimizes the damage in home runs. RP Yennier Cano posted the best season of his career at age 29, giving Baltimore some insurance to close out games. The Orioles hope P DL Hall can help in some fashion this year after giving their bullpen a boost over the final five weeks last year. His success and ceiling start with better command. This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins was a waiver-wire darling in 2021, helping many fantasy teams win league and overall championships. He finished 10th in FPGscore (6.36) for hitters. In 2022, Mullins finished with almost the same opportunity in at-bats (602 and 608), but he failed to repeat in power despite a higher fly ball rate (43.6 – 41.1 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (7.7) was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (15.5) while failing in a range more in line with his previous career. Mullins saw a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.561 – 1.781 in 2021) and contact batting average (.326 – .367 in 2021). On the positive side, he continued to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate (18.8), with a step back in walks (7.0% – 8.7 in 2021). Despite his regression, Mullins was the 23rd most valuable hitter based on FPGscore (5.33). Last season, His bat lost value vs. lefties (.233) and righties (.233) while spending two lengthy stints on the injured list with a groin injury. After his first 48 games, Mullins hit .283 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 39 RBIs, and 13 steals over 177 at-bats, putting on pace for a 25/40 type year with 550 at-bats. His walk rate (11.8) and strikeout rate (16.3) over this stretch showed top-of-the-order success. Mullens was a lost soul over his final 153 at-bats (.190/18/6/27/5 with eight walks and 43 strikeouts). His one bright spot from last year was his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 22). Mullins’s quest for more home runs led to a new top in his flyball rate (49.0 – 42.7 in his career), with only a slight uptick in his HR/FB rate (10.1 – 7.7 in 2021). His launch angle (21.6) was the highest of his career, with no changes in his overall exit velocity (88.9). Fantasy Outlook: Injuries were a significant factor in the demise of Mullins over the final four months of 2023. He has the foundation skill set to hit higher in the batting order, but Mullins must lose some of his desire to smash home runs if he wants a better opportunity this season. In 2021, Baltimore hit him first in their lineup for 594 of his 602 at-bats (588 of 608 in 2022 and 186 of 404 in 2023). In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), Mullins had an ADP of 139 as the 31st outfield selected.
2024 NFL Draft Team Needs
Fantasy football has blossomed into an all-encompassing activity. As soon as football fans close the book on the previous season, dynasty football fans move right into the next crop of rookie talent. However, it is also vital to access the 2024 NFL Draft Team Needs for all 32 franchises. It is also necessary to monitor the free-agent activity of each team, as signing veterans can alter these draft needs. Here are the 2024 NFL Draft team needs for each squad. Be sure to bookmark this page, as it will be continuously updated throughout the free-agent and rookie scouting season. AFC East Buffalo Bills – S, WR, EDGE, CB Miami Dolphins – C/G, OT, DL, TE New England Patriots – QB, WR, OT, TE New York Jets – OT, WR, TE, QB AFC North Baltimore Ravens– CB, WR, DT, OL Cincinnati Bengals – OT, WR, DT, TE Cleveland Browns – DL, WR. LB, OT Pittsburgh Steelers – OT, QB, CB, C/G AFC South Houston Texans – DL, EDGE, RB, WR Indianapolis Colts – CB, WR, EDGE, DL Jacksonville Jaguars – CB, OL, WR, EDGE Tennessee Titans – OT, WR, CB, EDGE AFC West Denver Broncos – EDGE, QB, CB, WR Kansas City Chiefs – WR, DL, OT, CB Las Vegas Raiders – QB, CB, OT, DL Los Angeles Chargers – CB, RB, CB, TE NFC East Dallas Cowboys– OT, RB, CB. C/G New York Giants – WR, OT, DL, RB Philadelphia Eagles – CB, RB, OT, S Washington Commanders – QB, OT, EDGE, LB NFC North Chicago Bears – OL, EDGE, WR, EDGE Detroit Lions – CB, EDGE, WR, C/G Green Bay Packers – CB, OT, S, RB Minnesota Vikings – QB, EDGE, CB, DL NFC South Atlanta Falcons – QB, WR, EDGE, CB Carolina Panthers – WR, EDGE, C/G, LB New Orleans Saints – EDGE, OT, WR, TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB, WR, EDGE, DB NFC West Arizona Cardinals – WR, CB, EDGE, OT Los Angeles Rams – CB, EDGE, OT, S San Francisco 49ers – OT, CB, EDGE, DL Seattle Seahawks – EDGE, DL, QB, OT The 2024 NFL off-season is underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial fantasy questions and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES & UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter – Breaking Fantasy news & site updates! Like and share our new Facebook page! Be sure to pay attention to our giveaways for your shot at some sweet prizes!
Fantasy Football Wish List
2024 Fantasy Football Wish List As we open the “off”season part of the 2024 NFL year, all 32 teams have a specific plan for improving. Even the two-time defending champs know they have needs to address, whether through impending free agency or the upcoming NFL Draft. The Fulltime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Wish List approaches the needs of all 32 teams from a fantasy football perspective. What would fantasy fanatics like to see each squad do? Some of these options aren’t necessarily realistic but are meant to maximize the fantasy fun. After all, isn’t that what it’s all about? AFC East Buffalo Bills – Find a WR2 This is a great free-agent and NFL Draft class to find an impact wide receiver. The cash-strapped Bills aren’t currently in a position to sign one of the premier veteran wideouts. However, Buffalo has the No. 28 pick in the first round and will be in a good position to acquire an immediate starter. Pending free-agent Gabe Davis hasn’t been consistent enough and adding a playmaker opposite of Stefon Diggs would go a long way toward the Bills keeping their Super Bowl window open. Miami Dolphins – Unleash De’Von Achane Let’s ignore how Achane’s unreal efficiency wavered down the stretch for a minute. Instead, let’s embrace the rookie rusher who posted the RB4 numbers in points per game getting 200 touches as Miami’s 1a. Yes, Raheem Mostert is still under contract. However, Achane showcased that elite top gear and Mostert will be 32. As a starter, Achane could be a Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles-esque fantasy asset. New England Patriots – Draft Jayden Daniels For the first time in over two decades, it is a new era in New England. As the Patriots move on from Bill Belichick, embracing an athletic, dual-threat quarterback would be a signal that it’s out with the old and in with the new. New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has a strong track record with quarterbacks and said he intends to build the offense around his players’ strengths. Daniels is an elite runner and passer and would be a huge step for the Patriots to return to credibility after a rare down year. New York Jets – Sign Aaron Rodgers Some pundits think the Jets signed Rodgers last season but I’m not seeing any stats for the veteran signal-caller. Instead, we suffered through an abysmal passing offense that had so much potential. Breece Hall was magnificent, and WR Garrett Wilson still managed to post WR2 numbers with Ham-and-Eggers under center. Imagine a full season with future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers under center. Insert rocket emoji. AFC North Baltimore Ravens – Sign Calvin Ridley The Ravens need WR help. More specifically, they need a consistent deep threat that can open up the offense and complement Zay Flowers. Marquise Brown (also a free agent) performed beautifully for the Ravens in 2021. Ridley just went 76/1,016/8 for the Jaguars and could post similar numbers with Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken. Cincinnati Bengals – Re-Sign Tee Higgins Reports indicate the Bengals plan to franchise tag Higgins. Hopefully, Higgins avoids a holdout and reports to camp on time. With Tee, Ja’Marr Chase, and Joe Burrow fully healthy next summer, Cincinnati would have a top-10 offense that would once again be very popular in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. Cleveland Browns – Bring Back Joe Flacco I’m a realist. There is no way that Flacco’s magical December run would carry over for a full season. But having him chuck it for 330 yards, three scores, and two picks every game would be awesome for fantasy purposes. Also, seeing Deshaun Watson wearing a knit cap as the most expensive backup quarterback in the league would be icing on the cake. Pittsburgh Steelers – Trade for Justin Fields This is the hot rumor of the day, and I’d like to see it. I like Fields, and reportedly Mike Tolmin does as well. I’m not sure how Fields would fit in a traditional Steelers offense. But at least Matt Canada is gone. Additionally, Fields has proven he can be an excellent fantasy option. With the Bears poised to snag Caleb Williams with the first pick in the draft, having two viable fantasy staters only strengthens the QB pool. AFC South Houston Texans – Re-Sign Dalton Schultz Houston has all the pieces in place to contend while they have C.J. Stroud playing for a rookie contract. The Texans will target a zone runner and could bring Devin Singletary back for a reasonable deal. Schultz posted top-10 PPR numbers and has already displayed chemistry with Stroud. Plus, the 2024 free-agent class of tight ends is barren, except for Schultz. Houston can add a WR3 via this deep draft class, but finding a proven safety valve for their young superstar thrower would be more difficult. A reunion seems like the best-case scenario for all parties. Indianapolis Colts – Re-Sign Michael Pittman Pittman emerged as a true No. 1 wide receiver in his fourth season. He ranked ninth with 156 targets, including a pair of games with 11-plus looks started by Anthony Richardson. Richardson was far more competent as a passer than many projected. That bodes very well for the Colts’ offense, which ranked 10th in points even with Richardson shelved for most of the season. Jacksonville Jaguars – Draft a WR With Calvin Ridley set to test the market and the Jaguars only having about $7 million in effective cap space, it looks like drafting a replacement is more likely than breaking the bank for a proven veteran pass-catcher. Jacksonville is set at RB,TE, and has two solid veteran wideouts. That’s a good landing spot for an incoming rookie. Finally, the 2024 rookie class is deep and talented. The club could target both lines early while still adding a quality receiver on Day Two. Tennessee Titans – Switch Full-time to Those Sweet Oilers uniforms It’s full-blown rebuild time for the Titans, who welcome a new head coach to begin
2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview
2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview The conclusion of the football season means that fantasy fanatics can now prepare for spring training and the upcoming baseball season. Courtesy of Baseball America, NFBC Hall-of-Fame analyst Shawn Childs takes a deep dive into the 2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview. Baltimore shocked baseball last season by winning an AL-high 101 games. Do the young Orioles have the pitching to take the next step? Shawn breaks it down for us. Starting Pitching SP Grayson Rodriguez Baltimore selected Rodriguez in the first round (11th) of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft after completing his high school career. In his first year at A Ball, he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 94.0 innings. Then, after missing the COVID-19 season in 2020, Rodriguez dominated over 23 starts between High A and AA (9-1 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.825 WHIP, and 161 strikeouts over 103 innings). In 2022, Rodriguez was on the doorstep of the majors in early June (5-1 at AAA with 2.09 ERA, .168 BAA, and 80 strikeouts over 56 innings), but he left his 11th minor league start with a lat issue. After missing three months, Rodriguez struggled to find his previous form over his final 19.2 innings (nine runs and 28 baserunners) while striking out 29 batters. The excitement of Rodriguez was high when he made the Orioles’ starting rotation out of spring training. After a reasonable April (1-0 with a 4.07 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 24.1 innings), he lost his confidence over his next five starts (11.14 ERA), highlighted by his 45 baserunners and 11 home runs allowed over 21.0 innings. Baltimore shipped to AAA for the next seven weeks, where Grayson regained his edge (4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 41.1 innings). Over his final 12 starts with the Orioles, he allowed three runs or fewer in each contest, leading to a 5-2 record with a 2.26 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 71.2 innings. More importantly, Grayson only surrendered three more home runs. His average fastball (97.4) was elite in velocity. Batters struggled to hit his changeup (.191), slider (.143), and curveball (.173) while offering a losing cutter (.375). Despite growth in the second half, Grayson still battled his four-seamer (.313 with two home runs over 131 at-bats) while barely throwing his cutter. The next step in his growth is better command (3.1 walks per nine) and solving lefties (.277 with nine home runs and 24 walks over 195 innings). Fantasy Outlook: Between AAA and the majors, Grayson pitched 165 innings, putting him on track to take the mound every fifth day for Baltimore. In the early draft season in the NFBC, he has an ADP of 71 as the 21st starting pitcher selected. He looks poised to offer ace stats, with his ceiling behind limited to expected innings (180). The direction of Baltimore gives him a chance at 15+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts. If his spring reports are on point, I expect him to push to the early fourth round in the live events in Las Vegas in March. SP Kyle Bradish Over three seasons in the minors, Bradish went 15-13 with a 3.66 ERA and 283 strikeouts over 229 innings. After struggling at AAA in 2021 (4.67 ERA and 1.431 WHIP over 86.2 innings), his arm moved quickly to the majors in 2022 after three starts (1.20 ERA and 15.0 innings with 37 strikeouts). With Baltimore, Bradish struggled in six of his first 10 starts, leading to 38 runs, 82 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 46.1 innings. A right shoulder injury pushed him to the injured list, and then he had three rehab starts in the minors in July (two runs and six baserunners over 12.2 innings with one walk and 15 strikeouts). His arm improved over his next nine starts with the Orioles (7-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 44 strikeouts over 50.2 innings). Bradish did a better job keeping the ball in the yard (0.9 per nine innings). His final four starts came @TOR, HOU, @BOS, and @NYY, resulting in two disaster showings (10 runs and 25 baserunners over 20.2 innings). Last year, Bradish outpitched his previous resume at all levels, thanks to a step forward in his command (2.3 walks per nine). He allowed two runs or fewer in 21 of his 30 starts. His arm played well vs. righties (.211) and lefties (.220), with better success at home (2.23 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 76.2 innings). Over the back half of the year, he posted an ERA of 2.25 or lower each month while being more challenging to hit after the All-Star Break (.187). The value of his slider lost about half of a mile per hour while featuring his slider (.177 BAA) as his top pitch (30.8%). His cutter (.367 BAA) remains a liability despite throwing it as his second-highest rate. Batters struggled with his sinker (.214 BAA) and curveball (.163 BAA), with some regression with his changeup (.293 BAA – better pitch in the second half ~ .210 BAA). Fantasy Outlook: Despite growth in his command, Bradish continues to have weakness in his first-pitch strike rate (57.6). He did throw more overall strikes in 2023, and his overall arsenal did support his growth. His ADP (98) is reasonable (41st pitcher), considering his progression and 2024 potential. I hate buying arms off of career year, especially the ones that helped drafters win leagues with a free price point. Trending toward 180+ innings with some pullback in ERA and WHIP should be expected. In 2023, Bradish was the 16th-ranked pitcher by FPGscore (4.19). SP John Means Twice over his first three seasons with the Orioles, Means delivered a successful year in ERA (3.60 and 3.62) and WHIP (1.135 and 1.030). He improved his first-pitch strike rate (69.3) to an elite level in 2021, but home runs allowed (30 over 146.2 innings) were a problem for the second straight season. Over his 26 starts, he gave
2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview
2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview The conclusion of the football season means that fantasy fanatics can now prepare for spring training and the upcoming baseball season. Courtesy of Baseball America, NFBC Hall-of-Fame analyst Shawn Childs takes a deep dive into the 2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview. Starting Pitching SP Jesus Luzardo Over five seasons in the minors, Luzardo went 16-9 with a 3.01 ERA and 272 strikeouts over 236.1 innings. After being eased into 2020, Luzardo failed to live up to expectations over his nine starts (3.83 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 49.1 innings). He didn’t allow a run in four appearances (20.1 innings) while having one disaster showing (six runs and 11 baserunners over 3.1 innings). Luzardo lost his command (4.5 walks per nine) and confidence in 2021, resulting in 20 home runs over 95.1 innings. Batters beat him to the tune of a .280 batting average. He had an ERA higher than 5.25 every month. In 2022, he dominated in his first start (one run over five innings with 12 strikeouts). Luzardo battled his command (15 walks) over his next five matchups, leading to too many rough innings (4.50 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, and four home runs over 24 innings). His struggles were tied to a forearm issue that led to 11 weeks on the injured list. Luzardo reached ace status over his final 71.1 innings (3.03 ERA, 0.981 WHIP, 0.198 BAA, and 79 strikeouts). Last year, Luzardo gave the fantasy market a nice season despite moments of duress. Over five starts starting on May 21st, he allowed 18 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings, where his ERA (6.15) was well off the WHIP (1.101). Later in the year, his arm struggled to get batters out in four of seven matchups (24 runs, 54 baserunners, nine home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). Luzardo gave up 19 of his 22 home runs over 528 at-bats to righties, with a .248 batting average. In addition, he was a significant liability on the road (4.48 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and .276 BAA over 70.1 innings). His average fastball (96.8) was the best of his career. Luzardo had one dominating pitch (slider – .229 with 115 strikeouts over 210 at-bats), but it had less value against right-handed batters (.275 BAA). He gained an edge with his four-seamer (.253 BAA) and changeup (.245 BAA) with more success with a low-volume sinker (.275 BAA vs. lefties ~ .207 BAA). Fantasy Outlook: With a 32-start season on his resume, plus 200+ strikeouts and better command, Luzardo will be treated like a foundation SP2 in the high-stakes market based on his ADP (81) in early February. On the downside, he had a jump of 75.2 innings from 2022 and questions of what happens on his down days. In five of his 13 road starts, Luzardo gave up two runs or fewer when pitching at least five innings. I don’t want to overlook his potential injury risk due to his forearm injury in 2022. I’m hoping for a great spring and a rise-up draft board to remove him from my thought process. He is trending closer to a 3.00 ERA with 225 strikeouts if Luzardo can pitch 190.0+ innings and better success away from home. SP Eury Perez Miami hooked a gem with the signing of Perez out of the Dominican Republic. His minor league career started at age 17 in 2021. Over 78.0 innings at A and High A, he posted a 1.96 ERA and 108 strikeouts. The following season, a lat injury cost him about five weeks of development at AA. When on the mound, Perez pitched at a high level over his first 61.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, .188 BAA, and 87 strikeouts. He tripped up over three appearances (13 runs, 27 baserunners, and three home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), leading to a trip to the injured list. His season ended with four shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Perez shined over his first six starts (2.32 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, .148 BAA, and 42 strikeouts) last year at AA before getting his call up to the majors. Other than a disastrous game on July 1st (six runs and seven baserunners over one-third of an inning), he handled himself well over 11 matchups in the majors (2.36 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, .208 BAA, and 61 strikeouts over 53.1 innings). Miami shut him down around the All-Star break for three weeks to conserve innings. Unfortunately, Perez ran out of gas over his 10 appearances between AA and the majors (4.74 ERA, eight home runs, 59 strikeouts over 43.2 innings). His average fastball (97.5) is already one of the best in the game in velocity. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.200 BAA), curveball (.114 BAA), and changeup (.103 BAA). Perez had the most struggles with his four-seamer (.287 BAA and 12 home runs over 181 at-bats). Fantasy Outlook: Perez will turn 21 on April 15th while already offering beast upside, along with an edge in size (6’8” and 220 lbs.). Last year, he pitched 128.0 innings, putting him on track to throw at least 160.0 innings. Home runs were a problem last year, and Perez must pitch better late in the season to help fantasy teams win league championships. His ADP (80) in NFBC in early January ranked him neck and neck with Jesus Luzardo. With a step up in command, he has the potential and pitches to post a sub-3.00 ERA with a run at 200 strikeouts. Don’t be shy, especially if he is discounted. SP Trevor Rogers In the 2017 June Amateur Draft, Miami drafted Rogers with the 13th overall pick. However, a left forearm injury pushed back his debut in the minors until late May in 2018. He struggled over 17 starts at A ball (5.82 ERA). Rogers looked worthy of his high draft selection in 2019 (2.90 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 136.1 innings) while seeing regression after his promotion from High A
Super Bowl LVIII Betting Props
There’s no denying that Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest sports day of the year for pigskin fans. It’s also the biggest sports betting event of the year. One report indicated that over $23.1 billion would be bet on Super Bowl LVIII. Whether you are just a casual fan looking to buy a square or heavily into winning plays, our FullTime Fantasy‘s Super Bowl LVIII Betting Props has you covered. Speaking of fun for all, check out the FREE FullTime Fantasy Super Bowl LVIII Squares. These are some of my favorite plays from around the web for both the casual fan and serious sports bettor. Game Props Game props can be enjoyed by anyone because they don’t require a lot of previous football knowledge. Here are some of the Super Bowl LVIII betting props I like. Coin Toss- Tails Tails has hit in seven of the last 10 Super Bowls. It also hit in Super Bowl LVI when these two teams previously met. National Anthem UNDER 90.5 seconds Reb McEntire is an old-school country singer who seems unlikely to dramatically elongate notes for showmanship. First Quarter OVER 7.5 Points Normally I like targeting UNDERS in the first quarter. However, this line seems awfully low for two teams that ranked 3rd and 15th in scoring, respectively. All we need is an opening drive TD from Kansas City and any other score gets us there. Player Props If you followed our own Matt Brandon’s weekly Player Props, you did quite well this season. I asked Matt what lines he’s targeting for Sunday and a couple of player props stood out to him. Rashee Rice OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards The 49ers were slightly below average against wideouts this season. San Francisco allowed an opposing wide receiver to eclipse 60 receiving yards five times in their final six regular-season games. Additionally, the Packers and Lions had a WR top that figure in the postseason. Finally, our RDA* projections have Rice right at that 66 mark. Brock Purdy OVER 246.5 Passing Yards Kansas City has been formidable against the pass. However, Purdy had topped 250 passing yards in eight of his last 11 contests. With healthy total of 47.5 points, there should be plenty of back-and-forth scoring in this game. Finally, here are some of the player props that I like. Isiah Pacheco OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Field Goals Patrick Mahomes OVER 4.5 Rushing Attempts Travis Kelce ANYTIME TD +100 Brock Purdy OVER .5 Interceptions Christian McCaffrey UNDER 18.5 Rushing Attempts Sign Up Before the “Big Game” & Double Your Bet Instantly With Edge Boost Offer is up for a limited time only! Special Offer For The FullTime Community: Users who sign up within the next 72 hours will start at $500 in advance limit from EDGE Boost (as opposed to $50). Click on this link Click “Sign Up Today” & Double Your Bet Instantly! What is EDGE Boost? EDGE Boost is the first Bet Now Pay Later (powered by VISA) provider that enables you to take out a responsible, no-interest advance that you can use to bet on games of your choice at any sportsbook, DFS site, or the FFWC! You are then given four weekly installment payments to repay your advance, and if your wager hits, you double your winnings with no fees. Think of it like Affirm, AfterPay, and other Buy Now Pay Later providers. They want you to win because EDGE makes their money from the VISA fees paid by the sportsbooks. Imagine this: you’re working hard and the paycheck hits just in time for a mini victory dance. But wait, the big leagues – like that playoff FFWC contest or that winning wager on DraftKings – they’re calling your name, and your wallet’s just not in sync. Enter EDGE Boost, your ultimate sidekick! They’ve got your back, matching your deposits akin to those incredible sign-up bonuses from sportsbooks. The best part? It’s a recurring thrill! Keep using it, over and over – it’s like having a superhero’s power at your fingertips. Didn’t hit the jackpot this time? No sweat! You’ve got a generous month to pay them back, no interest, no worries. But hey, when luck’s on your side and that bet strikes gold, imagine this: you’ve got the means to reinvest and double down with PlayFFWC! It’s like being on a perpetual winning streak. And here’s the kicker: the more you prove yourself as a reliable user, paying back your advances like clockwork, EDGE Boost unlocks new levels for you, allowing higher advances up to a whopping $2,500! Now that’s what I call leveling up in style! So, gear up, get consistent, and watch your wagering adventures soar to new heights!
Super Bowl LVIII Fantasy Preview
Back in August, many football fans correctly projected the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers would square off in Super Bowl LVIII. The Niners did their part as the NFC’s top seed, but KC’s path to repeating was anything but conventional. Regardless, hundreds of millions will be watching and our Super Bowl LVIII Fantasy Preview has all you need to know about this rematch of Super Bowl LIV. Using our RDA* projections, we can break down each game to find the statistical edge that can give us a leg up in playoff fantasy and daily fantasy lineups. Also, we can determine the best bets to make. Before you place those winning bets, our partner Edge Boost can help you double your entries and payouts! Click below to increase your winnings today. San Francisco 49ers (14-5) at Kansas City Cheifs (14-6) Time: 6:30 Eastern Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada Line: 49ers -1.5 Total: 47.5 Money Line: Chiefs +104, 49ers -124 Kansas City Offense Even in a “down” year, here we are with the Chiefs in another championship game. QB Patrick Mahomes is well on his way to solidifying his legacy as one of the greatest signal callers in history. Just 28, Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing in their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years. After a middling season by his lofty standards, Mahomes has been stellar in Kansas City’s jaunt through the AFC. He’s averaged 264.3 combined yards with four TDs and no picks in the playoffs. And our RDA* projections agree nearly perfectly with those averages, making Mahomes our top overall play on Sunday. San Francisco’s eighth-ranked defense was far better against the run (3rd) than pass (14th). However, that won’t deter us from inserting RB Isiah Pacheco into lineups. Pacheco has been a workhorse in the postseason, accumulating 69 touches in three games and averaging a robust 17.4 fantasy points per game. Taking into account the tough matchup, our RDA* projections aren’t that high. But, Pachecho will get his touches and is the favorite for any rushing scores the Chiefs punch in. Jerick McKinnon has been designated to return from IR. If McKinnon is activated for the game, he becomes a sneaky red-zone receiving threat. Also, McKinnon’s presence would cut into Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s 25.7% snap rate in these playoffs. Update: Andy Reid stated that McKinnon is unlikely to suit up. We’ve boosted CEH’s numbers. WR Rashee Rice remains the only reliable wideout in Kanas City. The dynamic rookie roasted Miami for an 8/130/1 line in the Wild Card round. However, he’s been mostly corralled in KC’s other two playoff tilts. However, this is a solid spot for Rice, who is our No. 2 PPR wideout this week. Among players with 50 targets versus zone coverage this season, Rashee Rice ranks first in EPA per target and fifth in total EPA (out of 63). via SIS data. pic.twitter.com/2zte35lCHQ — Mauricio RodrĂguez (@MauNFL) February 6, 2024 Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been in on 59% of Kansas City’s postseason snaps but has a middling target share under 9%. Justin Watson has seen his playing time decrease and hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 11. Mecole Hardman has been seeing more playing time and occasionally gets the ball on a misdirection/gimmick snap. MVS and Hardman have some appeal in DFS lineups as boom-or-bust options. The safest bet among Kansas City’s pass catchers remains TE Travis Kelce. Undoubtedly, Kelce will receive more than his fair share of attention on the world’s stage. But the future Hall-of-Famer is more than worth of those accolades in fantasy leagues. Our RDA* projections have Kelce scoring the most points of any receiver or tight end in Super Bowl LVIII. San Francisco Offense Kansas City’s No. 2 ranked defense has set a record for most games not allowing more than 28 points. The balanced Chiefs allowed the second-fewest points and ranked fourth against both the pass and run. Still, Brock Purdy has made a name for himself overcoming the odds. From Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft to guiding his team to the title game, it’s been quite a two-year stretch for Purdy. The sophomore signal caller is surrounded by elite playmakers. However, our RDA* projections (238 yards, 1.4 TD) think Purdy could struggle against Kansas City’s elite defense. That puts Purdy firmly behind Mahomes, but still a player to consider in 2QB builds. The top fantasy option of this, and every week, RB Christian McCaffrey leads the way with a projected 19.7 PPR points. Fitting CMC into lineups can be expensive. Particularly in the captain’s slot. Regardless, McCaffrey is the safest bet on the board. He has an over/under of 123.5 scrimmage yards in this game. Elijah Mitchell has re-emerged as San Fran’s No. 2 back and has wracked up 25 touches in the Niners’ two postseason games. That kind of usage puts Mitchell on the radar as a solid DFS value on Sunday. WR Deebo Samuel has a much more difficult task. Led by elite CB L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs have locked down No. 1 wideouts all season. However, Sneed does not typically shadow and Samuel is often lined up in the backfield. That will allow Kyle Shanahan to get Samuel the ball in a variety of ways. Despite the matchup, Samuel is our No. 1 wideout to target. Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t fared quite as well against two-high safeties. That is the predominant formation the Chiefs use. Additionally, Aiyuk will see plenty of Sneed on the perimeter. Our RDA* projections have Aiyuk catching a modest four balls for 64.5 yards. Jauan Jennings caught two balls in each of San Francisco’s previous two postseason tilts but has a limited ceiling. Tight end George Kittle has had some success against this defensive scheme. However, the Chiefs surrendered just 10.7 PPR points per game to the position, which was the 10th-fewest in the league. He’ll see enough targets (including in the red zone) to be a decent start. But Kittle is overpriced in DFS formats. The most frequently used formation for the 49ers passing the ball has
Jody Smith’s Rankings: Super Bowl
Jody Smith’s Rankings: Super Bowl FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is the home
FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is the home of our FullTime Fantasy Football Rankings: Super Bowl.
Ranking You Can Trust
Our staff was ranked No. 1 last season, with not one but TWO analysts inside the top 10. With projections powered by NFBC Hall-of-Fame writer Shawn Childs and former FantasyPro’s Most Accurate Expert Jody Smith, FullTime Fantasy Members get instant access to reliable and trustworthy weekly rankings.
Additionally, Jody and Adam Krautwurst co-host the FullTime Fantasy Podcast, which is live-streamed weekly on YouTube. The guys are also active in the FullTime Fantasy Discord channel, helping answer all fantasy and sports betting inquiries.
Fantasy Football Rankings: Super Bowl
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