2024 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview
2024 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview The Bills still have one of the top QBs in the NFL, Josh Allen. However, this offense will look much different without Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Allen was the top quarterback in fantasy football last year, so expectations remain high despite the wholesale changes in the passing attack. Will free-agent acquisitions Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins, along with second-round draft pick Keon Coleman be enough to give the Bills the same firepower in the passing game this year? Time will tell. Buffalo did hang on to Khalil Shakir and spoke glowingly about his potential and new role. Plus, the franchise signed Chase Claypool to a one-year deal, which should help the receiver room. Buffalo has two very talented tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox opened 2023 as the starter but a wrist injury opened the door for Kincaid to become a pivotal piece of the offense. Kincaid ended the season as the TE11 after tallying 73 receptions (80.2% catch rate) for 673 yards and two TDs. Absent Diggs and Davis, Kincaid could be Josh Allen’s go-to option in 2024. Despite the loss of two critical weapons, many pundits still think the Bills have a shot at a Super Bowl appearance in 2024 under Sean McDermott. “Look around the league,” said Rich Gannon. “They have a top-five situation. They have an outstanding quarterback and a terrific football coach. It’s rare to have both in the same city.” Fortunately for Buffalo, Josh Allen isn’t the only one who balled out last year. RB James Cook eclipsed 1,100 rushing yards and averaged 4.7 yards per tote. He totaled 1,567 scrimmage yards but only found the end zone as a runner twice. However, he made up for that in the passing game. The youngster hauled in 44-of-54 targets for 445 receiving yards and an additional four touchdowns. Although the Bills drafted RB Ray Davis out of Kentucky with their fourth-round selection, Cook doesn’t have a lot of competition in the backfield. Cook will likely see 250+ touches in 2024 as the Bills will rely more on the running game. However, Josh Allen could easily vulture some touchdowns near the goal line. Still, Cook should wrack up a ton of yardage and it’s fair to expect positive regression to the mean in terms of touchdown output. Outside of Allen, Cook is the team’s most intriguing player from a fantasy perspective. Quarterback QB JOSH ALLEN – STUD (LOW RISK) Although he failed to throw for 30 touchdowns for the first time in four years, Josh Allen’s career-best 15 rushing scores helped lead him to another overall QB1 finish. Adversity is at hand in 2024, with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis gone. Second-round rookie WR Keon Coleman joins Curtis Samuel and standout TE Dalton Kincaid in a new-look offense, Meanwhile, the Bills fortified what was already a strength by selecting three offensive linemen in this year’s draft. That hints at a more run-based approach. That would suit Allen fine. Since entering the league he’s averaged 601 yards and 8.8 scores on the ground each season. ADVICE: QB1 In all formats Running Backs RB JAMES COOK – SOLID/SAFE PICK Cook saw a big boost in touches and playing time after the Bills brought in Joe Brady to run the offense. From Week 10 on, Cook averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, including the playoffs. He really shined as a receiver, ranking eighth overall with 445 receiving yards and four scores. However, Cook had a whopping seven dropped passes and four fumbles and he has only rushed for two touchdowns in each of his two seasons. Additionally, the Bills invested a fourth-round pick Kentucky RB Ray Davis, who catches the ball well and can contribute in short yardage. ADVICE: Still on the RB1 radar but with some risk RB RAY DAVIS – FANTASY HANDCUFF ADVICE: Davis has the size to factor in on early downs and in short yardage right away. Buffalo had 21 RB carries inside the 5-yard line last season and James Cook only commanded five of those. Excellent late-round sleeper with RB2 value if Cook misses time. Wide Receivers WR CURTIS SAMUEL – BYE WEEK FILL-IN Curtis Samuel has been remarkably consistent, posting WR44 and WR48 overall numbers in his final two seasons in Washington. Samuel ran the 12th-highest slot rate (68.7%) last season but with Khalil Shakir expected to take the majority of inside reps, Samuel will be thrust into perimeter duties. That’s a questionable role for a player who ranked 93rd in ADOT and 91st in yards per catch. The upgrade at quarterback potentially helps, but Samuel’s fantasy prospects would improve if he were utilized closer to the line of scrimmage. It remains to be seen how the Bills will employ their new addition. ADVICE: Middling WR4 with some modes value if he becomes Buffalo’s slot receiver WR KHALIL SHAKIR – SLEEPER (UNDERVALUED) Khalil Shakir made big strides in his second season, with a pair of 100-yard games. Shakir took on a larger role in the final month of the season, averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game in Buffalo’s final five contests (including playoffs). Josh Allen showed a real connection with his young receiver, boasting a league-best 95.6% catchable target rate and 133.6 QB Rating when targeting Shakir. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, Shakir has a clear path to slot duties and a big boost in opportunities in his pivotal third season. Shakir is a popular late-round sleeper with WR3 upside. ADVICE: Shakir is one of the top late-round sleepers to target in 2024 fantasy drafts. WR KEON COLEMAN – SUPER SLEEPER (HIGH RISK/POTENTIAL) Buffalo’s staff was enamored with Keon Coleman throughout the draft process and got their man the opening pick of Round 2. Coleman (6-3, 213) has excellent size, slot/perimeter versatility, and is an outstanding athlete who has the frame to be a potent red-zone weapon. And the Bills are counting on Coleman to be a significant part of their offense right away. After trading away Stefon
NFL Coaching Carousel
After only five franchises hired new head coaches in 2023, eight clubs entered the 2024 season with a different man at the helm. Some of these changes were expected, while others were more surprising. That includes the New England Patriots breaking in a new sideline leader for the first time since the 2000 season. FullTime Fantasy‘s NFL Coaching Carousel catches you up on the fantasy impact of these head coaching changes. Additionally, other teams retained their head coach but hired new offensive coordinators. All of these changes can have serious ramifications on a team’s philosophy and fantasy appeal. The well-prepared fantasy manager needs to know how these new hires will impact players this season. Here are the notable new hires and how they will affect fantasy football in 2024. Atlanta Falcons Incoming: Raheem Morris Outgoing: Arthur Smith For fantasy fans, the dismissal of Arthur Smith was met with overwhelming support. Despite spending three top-10 draft picks on skill position players, Smith refused to feature those assets in any credible manner. Subsequently, the Falcons finished below average in offense in each of Smith’s three seasons. After sacking Smith, GM Terry Fontenot looked to the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons had two interviews with Bill Belichick but ultimately brought back Raheem Morris to turn things around. Morris previously served as Atlanta’s defensive coordinator and led the team to a 4-7 record as interim head coach in 2020. Morris was also the head coach in Tampa from 2009-11. He has plenty of experience and is a well-respected defensive schemer and leader. From 2021-23, Morris led a Los Angeles Rams defense that finished inside the top 10 twice and won Super Bowl LVI. In Atlanta, his No. 1 job will be to revitalize an offense that underperformed. Last season, poor quarterback play doomed the Falcons. Atlanta finished 26th in scoring and had 28 turnovers. Their (-12) turnover ratio was the second-worst in the league. Additionally, Desmond Ridder took far too many sacks behind a stellar offensive line that boasted PFF’s fourth-highest pass-blocking grade. The arrival of Kirk Cousins will make Morris’s top priority much easier. Cousins has averaged over 4,200 passing yards and 32 touchdowns per season since he became a starter. Emphasizing the available skill position talent will go a long way. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson spent three seasons with Morris in LA. Robinson’s offense was top-10 in time of possession, yards per game, and scoring in 2023. His philosophy of pushing the ball downfield should do wonders for underutilized pass catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts. And if Bijan Robinson is utilized similarly to Kyren Williams, Bijan will contend for overall RB1 numbers. Carolina Panthers Incoming: Dave Canales Outgoing: Frank Reich It’s a complete overhaul for one of the NFL’s most dysfunctional franchises. Dan Morgan was promoted to president of football operations and GM. His first job was to find the right fit to patrol the sidelines after Frank Reich’s disastrous 1-10 stint that lasted less than one year. Enter Dave Canales, who had one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator. Before that, Canales spent 13 seasons in Seattle coaching wide receivers, quarterbacks, and acting as the passing game coordinator. Bryce Young was abysmal as a rookie. Carolina was last in the league in total offense, yards per play, and ranked 31st in scoring. Canales’s experience with Russell Wilson and resurrecting Geno Smith’s career will play a big role in turning that around. The club did invest heavily in weapons to improve that lackluster showing. They added target magnet Diontae Johnson from Pittsburgh and traded up into Round One of this year’s draft to select South Carolina WR Xavier Leggette. A pair of Longhorns (RB) Jonathon Brooks and TE JaTavion Sanders) also boosted the supporting cast considerably. In Tampa, Canales liked to feature his top two wideouts downfield. 48.7% of the Bucaneers’ targets went to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Meanwhile, RB Rachaad White ranked ninth at running back with 70 targets. If that philosophy carries over, Leggette and Johnson should be busy from the perimeter, with Adam Thielen seeing fewer looks. Brooks stood out as a receiver in Austin and is the favorite to emerge as the team’s lead back. After all, this staff chose him as the top back in this draft Las Vegas Raiders Incoming: Antonio Pierce Outgoing: Josh McDaniels The Raiders averaged 268.2 yards per game with 16 turnovers in eight games with Josh McDaniels. After McDaneils was jettisoned, Antonio Pierce led the Raiders to a 5-4 finish and won over the locker room. Under Pierce, Las Vegas jumped up to 308.4 yards per game and had no turnovers in six of those contests. Vegas also had no games with 100 rushing yards under McDaniels but eclipsed that mark six times under Pierce. That improvement resulted in Pierce being hired as the full-time head coach in January. A former standout linebacker with the Giants, Pierce brings credibility along with a tough, defensive-minded approach. His teams will try to run the ball to establish the pass while winning the turnover battle. The priority for the Raiders is to find the right quarterback. Aidan O’Connell went 5-5 as the starter but had his share of rookie moments. The club signed Garnder Minshew to a two-year $25 million deal. Minshew nearly led the Colts to an AFC South title after taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson. Along with Pierce, Mark Davis hired Tom Telesco as GM and Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator. In two seasons as Chicago’s offensive coordinator, Getsy guided the Bears to first and second in rushing. Granted, much of that was from the quarterback position, but Getsy and Pierce will rely on the rushing attack behind a solid Raiders’ offensive line. Zamir White will take over for the departed Josh Jacobs. White carried many fantasy managers to a tile last winter, posting overall RB12 numbers in the final four weeks. Alexander Mattison was signed to add depth but White will be given every opportunity to retain
Vegas Just Went ALL-IN On This Rookie RB
Long-time Las Vegas gambler and ranked high-stakes fantasy player Frank Taddeo (@RespectedMoney on X) is always watching Vegas oddsmakers to identify best bets and fantasy values. This NFL rookie running back is projected to have a MAJOR IMPACT by Oddsmakers, making him a BIG VALUE for Zero RB builds A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Over the next several months here at Fulltime Fantasy, I will be highlighting players that are witnessing significant movement in their 2024 NFL betting markets. In my first installment, I will be focusing on Carolina rookie running back Jonathon Brooks. The Panthers traded up in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft to draft the former Texas standout as the first running back off the board at No. 46 overall. Jonathon Brooks is one of the best RBs in College Football 💨 The #1 RB Prospect according to PFFs Big Board 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DS67d4q5nx — College Football Report (@CFBRep) February 1, 2024 While many fantasy managers may be hesitant to invest in a back coming off a torn ACL last November, it is wise to pay attention to new coach Dave Canales’ intent of his offense to focus on running the ball. Check out our detailed Rookie Scouting Profile of Jonathon Brooks here. VEGAS ODDSMAKERS RESPOND TO COACHES RECENT COMMENTS Dave Canales to Jonathon Brooks: “The intent of our offense is to run the ball.” — Joe Person (@josephperson) May 10, 2024 Oddsmakers are paying attention to Canales’s offensive game plan. The talented back, who was installed with a rushing yards betting projection of 500.5, has witnessed the biggest move of any running back in the rushing yards market. The 6-foot-1, 216-pound physical back now sits with a betting demand of 775.5 yards at DraftKings. “A MOVE THIS BIG IS ABSURD, YOU DON’T SEE IT VERY OFTEN.” -Frank Taddeo When oddsmakers make a move of 275 yards, fantasy managers need to take note. Brooks, who currently has an ADP of RB28, came off the board at 7.12 in a Circa Las Vegas Fantasy Championship Draft held on May 30. Due to playing behind Bijan Robinson in his first two collegiate seasons, Brooks only enjoyed one season as the featured call carrier for the Longhorns. In 2023, Brooks rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 10 games before suffering the season-ending knee injury. In Carolina, Brooks only finds veterans Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, and Rashaad Penny on the depth chart. That is far from an imposing backfield which will easily result in Brooks taking over lead duties by the start of the season. Canales’s vow to focus on the rushing attack to help Bryce Young, combined with the sizable move by oddsmakers, means fantasy managers should not be afraid to invest in the powerful rookie as a viable RB2/Flex option this season with only middle-round draft capital demand. For the past 15 years, Football Contest Proxy has provided the leading service to submit picks in major Las Vegas football contests from anywhere in the world and built FootballContest.com into the top online destination for football contest info. All you need to do to enter is sign up in person sometime before football season kicks off. FCP does the rest as your proxy – it really is that easy. Simply plan your trip to Vegas and schedule a time with FCP to get signed up for whatever contest(s) you want to enter. As a proxy partner of FullTimeFantasy, you can also SAVE $50 through September 2 by clicking here. Just enter promo code FANTASY at checkout for instant savings, so make your best pick and go with the pros at FootballContest.com!
2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Breakdown
Horse race handicapping is back with today’s 2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Breakdown! Belmont Stakes 156 features a talented field of 10 entrants highlighted by both the Derby (Mystik Dan) and Preakness (Seize the Grey) winners along with the Derby runner-up (Sierra Leone). With Belmont Park under construction for a new home, the last leg of the Triple Crown has moved north to beautiful Saratoga. Due to the layout of Saratoga’s track, the race normally runs at a distance of 1 ½-mile The race will now be reduced to a length of 1 ¼ miles. In case you are wondering, the Belmont Stakes, normally the longest of the Triple Crown races, will be run at the same distance required in the Kentucky Derby. Oddsmakers have installed Sierra Leone as the 9/5 morning-line favorite. The son of Gun Runner with Flavien Prat abroad will try to earn his fourth win in six career starts for trainer Chad Brown. New shooter and lightly raced Mindframe, who is a perfect 2-for-2 for Todd Pletcher, is listed as the 7/2 second choice on the morning line odds. This son of Constitution, who broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park winning by nearly 14 lengths back in the end of March, followed that up with a 7-length victory at Churchill Downs on May 4. Mystik Dan, who finished second in the Preakness after winning the Derby, is the third overall betting choice at odds of 5-1. Let’s dive right in and take a deeper look at the top contenders as well as some solid value longshots in the FullTime Fantasy 2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Breakdown 2024 Belmont Stakes Time, Location, TV: Racetrack: Saratoga Race Course – Saratoga Springs, New York Date: Saturday, June 8, 2024 Purse: $2,000,000 Distance: 1 ¼ mile, Dirt Race: 12 Post Time: 6:41 p.m. EST / 3:41 PST TV: FOX Image courtesy of @BelmontStakes on X PACE MAKES RACE: PREFERED RUNNING STYLES HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds: TOP CONTENDERS BY THE ODDS #9 Sierra Leone (9/5) Sierra Leone ran the longest distance of any horse in the Kentucky Derby and it cost him to come up just short to Mystik Dan. This son of Gun Runner, who won the Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes, is two “noses” away from being undefeated. Favoritism is merited here. He is easily the horse to beat. Chad Brown has opted to replace jockey Tyler Gaffalione with Flavien Prat. #10 Mindframe (7/2) This unbeaten son of Constitution is one of three entrants that could supply trainer Todd Pletcher with his potential fifth trip to the winner’s circle at the Belmont Stakes. Despite the impressive wins, Mindframe is easily an underlay at these short odds in this step up in class against this quality field. Can not overlook perhaps the best jockey in the country in Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for the third consecutive time. #3 Mystik Dan (5-1) Mystik Dan is the only horse in the field who will be competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown. After winning the Kentucky Derby this son of Goldencents will try to rebound after being upset by Seize the Grey in the Preakness. Three starts in five weeks results in a better use underneath as a trifecta and/or superfecta ticket target. Should enjoy the cutback in distance relief. #1 Seize the Grey (8-1) This son of Arrogate was visually impressive beating Mystik Dan by 2 ¼-lengths in the Preakness. The question all ‘cappers must answer is whether his win was enhanced by the off-track sloppy conditions a few weeks back. Due to the presence of Mindframe, Dornoch, and The Wine Steward, it’s likely that this entrant for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lucas will not find an uncontested lead as he did in the Preakness when he took the field wire-to-wire. LONGSHOTS #2 Resilience (10/1) This talented son of Into Mischief finished a disappointing sixth in the Kentucky Derby. The Wood Memorial winner has been training really well in his morning workouts leading up to Belmont and according to respected trainer Bill Mott, he could be sitting on a monster effort on Saturday. The reduction in distance from a 1 ½-mile race to 1 ¼ miles could make a huge difference here. At double-digit odds, he will likely be flying under the radar at the betting windows due to so many big names and experienced winners in the field. #8 Honor Marie (12-1) One of my top targets in the Derby was bounced around horribly at the starting gate, yet still recovered well enough for a respectable 8th-place finish. Those who backed the Derby’s “wise-guy” horse are willing to forgive that effort despite the fact the Belmont Stakes has historically not been a favorable race for deep closers. Will Florent Geroux try to have him more forwardly placed as opposed to closing from the clouds? #5 Antiquarian (12-1) This entry for Todd Pletcher with Johnny V in the saddles, is a true wild card. This son of Preservationist, who heads in off a career-best win in the Peter Pan Stakes back in May, has improved in each of his four career races hitting the board in three of those efforts. #6 Dornoch (15-1) My top-rated horse at the end of 2023 was this full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage. However, he has been a huge disappointment in 2024 finishing fourth in the BlueGrass and 10th in this year’s installment of the Run for the Roses. I expect his connections of Luis Saez and Danny Gargen to send this son of Good Magic right to the lead on Saturday. If he is able to get an uncontested lead, horse racing fans could be in store for a repeat of his top form displayed during wins in the Remsen Stakes and the Fountain of Youth. Can he be trusted despite his recent poor form? Belmont Stakes 156 Formula Rankings TOP TIER #9 Sierra Leone (Top Choice) #2 Resilience (Top Longshot)
Circa LVFC Draft 6/01 Review
Just before the calendar flipping to June the Fantasy Football World Championships (FFWC) hosted 12 managers participating in the $349 Circa Las Vegas Fantasy Championship. Looking forward to another profitable season playing at the FFWC, I was one of the entrants who participated in the early season draft action. Our Circa LVFC Draft 6/01 Review breaks down the entire draft. The Circa Las Vegas Fantasy Championship (Formerly Online Championship) is a fantasy football contest comprising of individual leagues 12. The best teams from each league will compete in weeks 15-17 to be crowned Circa Las Vegas Champion and Grand Prize Winner. It’s Fantasy Football like you’ve always played it, except there’s NO TRADING! No trading, no way! Not at this level of competition. The team you draft and the players you acquire through weekly free agency is the team you go to battle with. Let’s get to the FullTime Fantasy Circa LVFC Draft 6/01 Review. 3 BEST PICKS WR Breece Hall (1.6) Seeing arguably the best RB in fantasy football-not named CMC-fall to the middle of the first round resulted in the best value selection of the draft. I highly doubt we see Breece Hall fall this far in any draft this summer. TE Travis Kelce (4.5) A first-round fantasy football talent not long ago, it’s hard to comprehend Patrick Mahomes’ top target now falling to the middle of the fourth round. Kelce has hauled in 92-plus receptions in six consecutive seasons and is one of the best tight end investments due to the lack of an elite WR1 on the Kansas City roster. QB C.J. Stroud (8.2) Landing a Top 5 fantasy quarterback in the eighth round will pay immediate dividends. The electric second-year signal-caller came off the board (6.4) nearly two full two rounds later than the previous Circa championship draft held over Memorial Day weekend. 3 SURPRISING PICKS WR Cooper Kupp (3.1) Kupp is one of the players being overdrafted based on name recognition, And that can be a mistake in fantasy football. The veteran’s talent has declined immensely since his 2021 elite season and it’s hard to endorse a rebound season worthy of this high draft capital. WR Malik Nabers (4.1) The former LSU standout is undoubtedly an exciting rookie talent. But with Daniel Jones under center several other wideouts who went later in the round offer less risk. Nabers is a great Dynasty pick, but in redraft, he is outside my top 25 wideout rankings for 2024. WR Brandin Cooks (9.5) Despite his late-season production for the Cowboys, Cooks came off the board earlier than I can endorse for a wideout who has not topped 700 yards or 60-plus receptions in back-to-back seasons. Play Dynasty? Take a shot and become Dynasty King! $299 Entry, $2,875 in lg prizes + $10K Grand Prize w a $2K Dynasty King Bonus! CONTENDERS TEAM No. 6 — Team Black The sixth pick resulted in the “sweet spot” of the draft as two of the NFL’s elite fantasy running backs fell into his lap in the form of Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor. The connection of Tee Higgins, who will be highly motivated in a contract year, with Joe Burrow should pay serious dividends. TEAM No. 10–Legion of Boom LOB enjoyed one of the better drafts in this league, securing a top-notch connection in Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford. Saquon Barkley, Rashaad White, and Derrick Henry are a solid collection of potentially top 12 players at the RB position. Also, LOB sniped me by selecting Zamir White in the sixth round. The new RB1 in Las Vegas could be a league winner for fantasy managers in 2024. TEAM No. 11–Too Legit To Quit Holding draft positions in the back end of the first round resulted in primetime talent being available on the board. The pairing of Robinson and Gibbs is an elite RB combo, while Strouds’ selection in the eighth round could be the steal of the draft. New Chiefs’ veteran wideout Hollywood Brown continues to rise in drafts coming off the board (5.11) almost three full rounds (8.6) before the MDW Circa championship draft. WILDCARDS TEAM No. 3 — K9 K9 completed a risky draft with a high ceiling. Selecting both Texans’ WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell combined with oft-injured Miami RB De’Von Achane in the first four rounds is boom-or-bust. Trey McBride is a superb talent after an 81-reception rookie campaign. McBride (5.4) fell a full two rounds from the May 25th Circa championship draft (3.4). TEAM No. 9 –Respected Money My team lands as a wildcard after landing an elite WR combo of Garrett Wilson and Michael Pittman paired with promising Chargers’ rookie Ladd McConkey. If Browns’ stud RB Nick Chubb can rebound off his horrific leg injury, my collection of backs headlined by Pacheco, Jacobs, Warren, and Connor will provide my squad with unmatched RB depth. I’ll take two-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes – backed up by one of the most underrated quarterbacks in Brock Purdy any day. TEAM No. 2 –Ideeot Anytime you land CMC outside of the first pick you have started the draft on a high note. Ideeot didn’t stop there, grabbing two reliable talents in Waddle and LaPorta at the 2-3 wrap-around. Christian Kirk, Christian Watson, and Mike Williams are immense WR talents who need to stay healthy for this team to compete for the league title. MOONSHOTS TEAM No. 1 –Blue Team The Blue Team enjoyed one the best starts of any team in this league. They tabbed CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, George Pickens, and Josh Allen. However, my only gripe is Cooper Kupp at 3.1 – due to his recent regression over the last two seasons. David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert, who both have a proven nose for the end zone. This resulted in a solid starting RB combo for only middle-round draft capital. TEAM No. 12 — Rubicon Rubicon nailed the back end of the draft after selecting three superb wideouts in Chris Olave, Drake London,
Circa LVFC Draft 5/25 Review
While we were all sitting poolside and heading to the beach this Memorial Day weekend, the FFWC is already in peak form. Over the holiday, 12 managers jumped into the $349 Circa Las Vegas Fantasy Championship. Our Circa LVFC Draft Review breaks down the entire draft. The Circa Las Vegas Fantasy Championship (Formerly Online Championship) is a fantasy football contest comprised of individual leagues of 12. The best teams from each league will compete in weeks 15-17 to be crowned Circa Las Vegas Champion and Grand Prize Winner. It’s Fantasy Football like you’ve always played it, except there’s NO TRADING! No trading, no way! Not at this level of competition. The team you draft and the players you acquire through weekly free agency is the team you go to battle with. Let’s get to the FullTime Fantasy Circa LVFC Draft Review. 3 BEST PICKS WR Garrett Wilson (1.12) With Aaron Rodgers back under center, Wilson’s first 100+ reception season is on tap in 2024. Wilson will likely creep into the middle of the first round come August. RB Kyren Williams (3.11) Managers overreacting to the news of a “sore foot” in Rams voluntary OTA’s resulted in a tremendous slide for a stud RB who scored 15 total touchdowns last season. RB Zach Moss (9.7) & RB Raheem Mostert (9.12) Two veteran RBs both land in this spot due to playing in two of the NFL’s best offenses. With Joe Mixon now in Houston, Moss is the new RB1 in Cincinnati, while Mostert was a touchdown (21) machine last season handling starting duties in Miami’s high-powered offensive attack. 3 SURPRISING PICKS WR Stefon Diggs (3.1) With two stud WRs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, sharing the field, it’s hard to invest in Diggs with the first pick of the third round. Fantasy managers will find it hard to know which of the talented trio to trust weekly in 2024. WR Malik Nabers (4.7) While Nabers is an exciting rookie talent, it’s hard to invest in any WR running routes for Daniel Jones in the fourth round. RB Trey Benson (8.9) Difficult to endorse drafting the rookie Benson at this spot while Mostert and Moss were still on the board. The former Oregon and Florida State standout is a great handcuff to James Conner managers. But this team didn’t draft Conner. The explosive back will need an injury to Conner in order to return enough production for this draft capital in his rookie campaign. Play Dynasty? Take a shot and become Dynasty King! $299 Entry, $2,875 in lg prizes + $10K Grand Prize w a $2K Dynasty King Bonus! CONTENDERS TEAM No. 12 — The Godfather With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, landing stud WR Garrett Wilson at 1.12 is tremendous value. Completing the wrap-around with Jonathan Taylor results in the best first start of any team in this draft. Raheem Mostert in the ninth round is solid RB3 depth. RB Ray Davis and WR Dontayvion Wicks late in the draft could become solid deep sleeper value selections. TEAM No. 5 — Ideeot Ideeot enjoyed one of the better drafts in this league securing a top-notch connection in Ja’Maar Chase and Joe Burrow. Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, and Terry McLaurin are a solid trio of WRs while landing one of 2024’s top sleepers in RB Zamir White in the sixth round is an excellent pairing with Seattle RB Kenneth Walker. TEAM No. 7 — Memorial Fox Memorial Fox drafted four consecutive wideouts to commence his draft in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, and Amari Cooper. Aaron Jones was a solid addition due to the potential of heavy volume in his first season with the Vikings. New Bengals RB Zach Moss was a solid grab in the ninth round. WR Hollywood Brown in the eighth round could be a league winner if the veteran emerges as the Chiefs’ WR1. Would have preferred drafting Kyler Murray or Brock Purdy in the 10th round over Tyjae Spears to pair with Lawrence or Watson later in the draft. TEAM No. 11 — Daily Double Landing Kyren Williams at 3.11 is arguably the best pick in the draft as managers are overreacting to recent reports of a “sore foot” in Rams OTAs. If Williams is healthy, he will be going a full round early come August. Would have preferred Tee Higgins (contract-year) in the fourth round over WR Christian Kirk. Any team with two-time Super Bowl champion QB Patrick Mahomes will always compete. WILDCARDS TEAM No. 10 — Fozzy Dog Fozzy Dog completed the riskiest draft with perhaps the highest ceiling. Selecting four stud RBs in Robinson, Barkley, Jacobs, and Henry is superb. However, his starting WR corp is less than stellar. Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey could be an absolute gem in the sixth round. TEAM No. 2 — Team Miller After seeing Christian McCaffrey come off the board, Team Miller landed an absolute stud in Breece Hall with the second overall pick. Despite investing in RBs in rounds 1 and 3, Team Miller secured a solid trio of wideouts in Nico Collins, Tee Higgins, and George Pickens. Keon Coleman at 6.11 could be the steal of the draft if the former Florida State standout emerges as Josh Allen’s WR1. TEAM No. 3 — Hail. Too. Well. While securing one of the draft’s best collections of WRs in Cee Dee Lamb, D.J. Moore, and Keenan Allen, investing in Travis Kelce at 3.3 leaves this squad with questionable RB depth. This team will need Nick Chubb to rebound from injury if they have any hopes of competing as Joe Mixon is a boom-or-bust RB in his first season in a pass-heavy Texans offense. TEAM No. 4 — Mr. Flowers Landing star Miami WR Tyreek Hill is always a great way to anchor a team required in the FFWC three wideout format. Emerging Arizona tight end Trey McBride was a solid pick at 3.4 due to the fact he could easily top 100 receptions after grabbing 81
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Jody Smith has been a mainstay in the accurate fantasy rankings world for well over a decade. His consistency in the field has accrued numerous accolades, highlighted by winning Fantasy Pro’s Most Accurate Expert Award in 2012 for in-season football rankings. He has also been a consistent draft ranker, with a top-10 finish in 2021 and overall for the past four year’s accumulative. Jody has been involved in fantasy football for over 30 years and is a mainstay in the industry. His season-long and weekly rankings can be found at FullTime Fantasy and he is frequently on X @JodySmithNFL. Because Jody is considered to be one of the preeminent fantasy football analysts and rankers, he is often included in many industry and expert drafts. That experience of competing against the world’s best gives Jody unique insight and the ability to adjust his strategy with a proactive approach. This is Jody’s fantasy football draft strategy and process for the 2024 season. No two leagues are alike or can be predicted from pick to pick. But using these tips as a general guide should net you the core pieces of a strong lineup and the building blocks for a championship-contending roster. Although this strategy transcends all scoring and formats, it is catered around a PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex options, 1 PK, and 1 DST. Quarterback Strategy Undoubtedly, the most important position on the field is quarterback. And that also applies to fantasy football, where the leading scorers are typically the signal-callers. However, the abundant depth at the position devalues the strategy of taking one of the elite QBs early in drafts. In 2023, the difference in fantasy points per game for the overall QB1 and QB12 was 5.2 points. That’s a 22.5% difference but the gap is far more glaring at each of the other positions. Therefore, I will prioritize opening my draft with elite wide receivers and running backs and try to target value quarterbacks in the mid-to-late rounds. That means bypassing safer options like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and using my tiers to determine who are the best available signal-callers in Rounds 6-9. This second and third tier of passers offers reliable weekly scoring from multiple options who have a good shot at posting QB1 numbers in 2024. Quarterback Values to Target: Kirk Cousins, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels Running Back Strategy I’m an old-school guy and it is difficult for me to fully embrace the #ZeroRB strategy of ignoring the position until the fourth or fifth rounds. Admittedly, the results over multiple years of embracing a WR-heavy strategy have played out well. It’s also been exasperated by injuries to so many early-round running backs. Still, having an elite, three-down workhorse in your lineup might be the single biggest edge in fantasy. Teams that selected Christian McCaffrey last season can attest to that, as McCaffrey was the top-scoring player regardless of position. Having that kind of production in your lineup is like a cheat code. It also makes investing in a “hero” running back a good idea. Hero RBs are defined as high-volume rushers who stay on the field, accumulating most of their team’s rushing attempts while racking up receptions and valuable touchdowns. Having a plug-and-play weekly starter is invaluable and remains the ultimate goal of every drafter. Even the ZeroRB truthers. Of course, your draft position will dictate how viable selecting a stud RB will be. It might make sense to open your draft WR/WR from a late draft position rather than reach for whoever is available after a draft that opened with a lot of emphasis on running backs. Regardless, I prefer to have that three-down running back locked up by Round 3. In a perfect draft scenario, I would have both RB slots secured by the fourth. After that, the emphasis is on targeting mid-round running backs who contribute in the passing game. These backs may not see lead-back carries initially. However, they have a consistent weekly role and are an injury or benching away from developing into reliable fantasy starters. Finally, I’ll conclude my drafts by targeting high-volume running back handcuffs. Not necessarily my own staters, but youngsters that have strong analytics profiles buried on depth charts. Think Zamir White down the stretch last season. Those are the kinds of players to emphasize when filling out those final roster spots. Early-Round Hero Running Backs: Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Travis Etienne Middle-Round Targets: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones Sleepers: Zamir White, Jaylen Warren, Raheem Mostert Wide Receiver Strategy In today’s high-octane PPR leagues, wide receivers have become the primary focal point in many drafts. Not only are wideouts far less likely to miss time than running backs via injury, but elite receivers can produce like three-down backs. Over the last three seasons, seven running backs have averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. During the same stretch, 13 wide receivers have eclipsed that mark. Also, many fantasy leagues have embraced a starting lineup of two RBs and three wide receivers. Many more allow for a pair of flex spots. That further allows savvy fantasy managers to load up their rosters with pass-catchers. It would take real discipline to pass on Christian McCaffrey in Round 1. But after he’s off the board, a case can be made to prioritize wide receiver with the majority of the picks in Round One. Having a later draft slot makes it entirely possible to open with two WR1s and still land a top-10 running back at the tail-end of Round 3. After securing my two running back spots, I generally bypass tight ends and try to target starting wide receivers. The middle rounds (5-9) are often where fantasy titles are won and loading up on as many starting wideouts as I can is my preferred strategy. Chris Godwin, Nico Collins, Adam Thielen, and Puka Nacua were all excellent examples of high-upside starting
Preakness 149: 2024 Betting Breakdown
Horse race handicapping is back with today’s Preakness 149: 2024 Betting Breakdown! Guest contributor: Frank Taddeo @RespectedMoney on X / Twitter. Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan heads a strong field in the 149th Preakness Stakes After watching an upset in
This long-time Vegas handicapper has correctly picked 3 of the last 5 Preakness races. It’s an unheard of performance. Without further ado…
Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan heads a strong field in the 149th Preakness Stakes
After watching an upset in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, horse racing fans get treated to the second leg of the Triple Crown in Saturday’s 148th running of the Preakness Stakes.
Mystik Dan, who upset the Run for the Roses field at odds of 19/1, will now take on the role of favoritism after being found at odds of 5/2 in the latest live odds.
Catching Freedom, who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby is the second overall betting choice at odds of 7/2, joined by Chad Brown’s Tuscan Gold at the top of the betting board at in a highly competitive field of eight entrants.
Who wins the 2024 Preakness and which long odds horse will crack the trifecta? …
To lock in all of the top horse rundowns and exact bets you should place including win, exacta and trifecta wagering,
2024 Kentucky Derby Betting Breakdown and Best Bets
Guest contributor: Frank Taddeo @RespectedMoney on X / Twitter. This long-time Vegas handicapper has correctly picked 4 of the last 5 Kentucky Derby races. It’s an unheard of performance including last year’s trifecta wager which paid an astounding 982 to
The “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” has finally arrived with a strong field of 20 entrants.
My “Respected Money” formula is looking to nail the Kentucky Derby winner for the fifth time in the last six years!
Kentucky Derby Betting Angles/Trends:
- The post-time favorite has won six of the last 11 runnings of the Kentucky Derby. However, the last five post-time favorites have all been defeated.
- No horse in the history of the race has ever won the Kentucky Derby breaking from post No. 17 (0-44). This year Stronghold will try and make history. No UAE Derby winner has ever hit the board in the Kentucky Derby to date – Forever Young, nor has any Japan-based horse – TO Password.
- The last horse to win from the No. 1 post position was Ferdinand in 1986. This year the dreaded rail has been drawn by Dornach (20/1).
- No horse has won the Kentucky Derby breaking from post No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 since Real Quiet in 1998. Those looking to back Sierra Leone and Mystik Dan to win need to add that into their handicapping.
PACE MAKES RACE: PREFERRED RUNNING STYLES
Who wins the 2024 Kentucky Derby, which MASSIVE longshot could win it all and which MOONSHOT will crack the trifecta? …
To lock in all of the top horse rundowns and exact bets you should place including win, exacta and trifecta wagering,
Introduction to Dynasty Fantasy Football
Introduction to Dynasty Fantasy Football Fantasy football has exploded over the past several years. Even some of the most diehard managers still have not heard about dynasty fantasy football. If you have that itch in March, April, or even May to “tinker” with a lineup or make a trade, then you have come to the right place and a dynasty league is just the thing for you. The goal here is to give you an essential road map for navigating your first-ever dynasty startup draft and all the nuances involved, which you do not necessarily deal with in redraft leagues. FullTime Fantasy has you covered with the latest dynasty football rankings. Also, check out these great dynasty league start-up tips. Finally, don’t miss out on your chance to win the Dynasty Football World Championship. What is a Dynasty League? We will start by defining a dynasty league courtesy of the industry leader in the format DLF (Dynasty League Football). In a dynasty fantasy football league, you retain most or all of your players yearly. This creates an environment quite different from that of a redraft league. It also creates a stronger sense of team pride, enabling managers to keep players and build a team over time. Success is achieved with greater satisfaction. Mistakes or successes in a dynasty league can affect a franchise’s fortunes for years, just like in the NFL. A dynasty league also facilitates trades, including trading draft picks, and encourages a deeper roster pool so young “project” players can be identified and groomed. Read the Fine Print Familiarize yourself with the rules and settings of your leagues just as you would in redraft. Pay extra special attention to roster sizes, IR (injured reserve) slots, whether or not your league allows taxi squads, and whether or not there are any types of contracts or salaries involved. For beginners, we recommend a more simplified league that does not utilize contracts and salaries. Your draft strategy will change depending on whether the league is non-PPR, half-PPR, or full-PPR. You will also be severely pivoting if it is a Superflex (two-quarterback league) or tight end premium (tight ends scoring weighed heavier) because values change dramatically based on the starting lineup allocations and scoring format. Timely Drafting We can understand the urge to draft immediately once you decide to plunge into the dynasty format, but the prudent approach is to wait until peak redraft season. This will allow you to acquire as much information as possible to make educated and informed decisions. This will be beneficial not only to you but also to other managers who may be new to the dynasty format. Next season, you can have your rookie draft right after the NFL draft to feed that craving you are experiencing in the offseason. Be Active Early and Often While you want to be careful not to mortgage the future too much, a good strategy involves acquiring more picks in the first five or six rounds, if possible. This allows you to draft several sure-fire starters for the current and next several seasons if you have done your due diligence. Ensure your contact information is current and you reply to messages or inquiries about potential trades. Interact with other managers and keep communication moving in a positive direction. This will benefit you in the long term in your dealings with others. Remember, you are joining a dynasty league to feed your addiction, which is now year-round. This is not to say that you must log on to your league site daily, but do check back often. You will learn quickly that values change rapidly in this format, and you need to be keen on capitalizing on the current market. Something else to consider, which is very important, is the reliability of the other managers in the league you join. You want others who are as committed as you and will stick with the league through the good and bad times. Like in your redraft league, there is only one champion, meaning there are 11 (or nine, depending on your league size) other losers. The ability to “reset” your team after a bad season does not exist in a dynasty league. Know Your Values Long gone are the days of just using cheat sheets. There are so many more tools at your disposal now. One of the most important in determining the value of dynasty players is ADP (average draft position). Ryan McDowell organizes ADP data from mock drafts of the Startup Dynasty. It is then published on DLF (Dynasty League Football) for consumption. By using ADP instead of rankings, you remove the opinion of just one expert or panel of experts and incorporate the community as a whole, along with the experts, to gather a consensus value of a particular player. Even more important is that these are broken down by league type (one quarterback or Superflex). The other keyword here is current. DLF updates ADP monthly, so you will have the most recent player valuation to work with during your start-up draft. The last thing to touch on concerning value is the ability to determine what future rookie picks are worth. You will want to determine if other managers overvalue future picks. Try to put a name to the picks involved in the deal to give you the proper framework for the deal. For example, you want to trade for a sixth- or seventh-round pick in your current startup draft. Approximate what player you would target in that range, and then carefully calculate who would be available in the rookie draft next year based on the multitude of prospect rankings available. Stick to Your Guns Do not fall into the trap of filling out your lineup a certain way. Doing so causes you to stray from the BPA (best player available) approach and ultimately leads to reaching for a player to fill a spot, thus decreasing the value of the slot you are drafting from. Leagues have been