Second-Year RB Ascending Early Draft Boards
Second-Year RB Ascending Early Draft Boards THIS RB1 WENT OFF THE BOARD NO. 1 OVERALL IN THE LATEST CIRCA CHAMPIONSHIP DRAFT! Long-time Las Vegas gambler and ranked high-stakes fantasy player Frank Taddeo (@RespectedMoney on X) is always watching Vegas oddsmakers to identify best bets and fantasy values. Thus far in our summer series here at Fulltime Fantasy, we have highlighted several players that have witnessed significant betting and fantasy football draft position movement. We dove into a rookie running back expected to make a major impact, a wideout who may struggle to return fair ADP value as well as an elite running back being faded by oddsmakers. A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Year Two Breakout The latest installment leads us to second-year Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. The former Texas Longhorns standout gained 976 rushing yards (57.4 per game) in his rookie season while adding four rushing touchdowns. Bijan Robinson’s rookie season stats: • 17 games • 976 rushing yards • 4.6 yards per carry • 58 catches • 487 receiving yards • 86.1 scrimmage YPG • 8 TDs#Falcons pic.twitter.com/cepuXuVkGp — NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) July 13, 2024 In the air, Robinson hauled in 58 receptions for 487 receiving yards and four additional touchdowns. A deeper dive reveals that Robinson finished tied for second with New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara for the most RB Targets (86) behind only Jets RB Breece Hall (95). The dynamic threat accomplished the impressive feat of finishing ahead of the consensus No. 1 pick Christian McCaffrey (83) in this category – despite questionable usage by the Falcons coaching staff. Fantasy managers are investing premium draft capital in Robinson in early FFWC drafts. The former Doak Walker Award winner owns an ADP of 5.7 / RB2. In the latest Circa Championship draft on 7/13, Robinson was selected No. 1 overall for the first time this fantasy season. He lept over CMC and CeeDee Lamb for the coveted top spot. Vegas Oddsmakers & Early Drafters in Agreement New Falcons Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson recently revealed Robinson will be featured in a “CMC role” in his sophomore campaign. Vegas insiders and the fantasy community both love the Falcons’ new staff. “Bijan’s such a talented player,” said Zac Robinson. “He’s gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then anyway we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right.” #Falcons OC Zac Robinson on Bijan Robinson being used like CMC: “Bijan’s such a talented player. He’s gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then any way we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right.” pic.twitter.com/6x01Gwp3Cv — The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024 Oddsmakers, who initially installed Robinson with a rushing yard betting projection of 900.5, have raised the tailback up to a betting demand of 1000.5 at DraftKings. The boys behind the betting counter clearly view the comments by the new Falcons staff as more than just “Coach Speak”. “In Circa Championship drafts held in June, I was able to grab Bijan at the back end of Round 1. That late-round value is a thing of the past as the electric talent is now a near-consensus Top 5 pick. ” – Frankie Taddeo Despite the presence of Tyler Allgeier, who often vultured goal line work last season, oddsmakers believe Robinson will receive heavy red zone volume. Robinson, who came off the board No. 1 in the latest Circa Championship draft, has witnessed the juice on his rushing touchdown projection of 6.5 steam from -105 to -130. To infinity and BIJAN. 71 yards! 📺: #ATLvsNO on CBS 📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/8rd1LDxUcL — NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024 This headline posted on X by the NFL last season sums up my 2024 fantasy football outlook for Robinson in superb fashion: “To Infinity and BIJAN in 2024.” For the past 15 years, Football Contest Proxy has provided the leading service to submit picks in major Las Vegas football contests from anywhere in the world and built FootballContest.com into the top online destination for football contest info. All you need to do to enter is sign up in person sometime before football season kicks off. FCP does the rest as your proxy – it really is that easy. Simply plan your trip to Vegas and schedule a time with FCP to get signed up for whatever contest(s) you want to enter. As a proxy partner of FullTimeFantasy, you can also SAVE $50 through September 2 by clicking here. Just enter promo code FANTASY at checkout for instant savings, so make your best pick and go with the pros at FootballContest.com!
2024 Chicago Bears Fantasy Preview
2024 Chicago Bears Fantasy Preview After unloading Justin Fields to Pittsburgh, there was little doubt that the Chicago Bears’ long quest for a franchise signal-caller would look to USC’s Caleb Williams. The preeminent pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams
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2024 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview
2024 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview Mike Tomlin did another masterful job guiding his 2023 Steelers squad to the AFC playoffs. But after dipping to 25th in offense and 28th in scoring, massive changes were needed in Pittsburgh. That is precisely
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2024 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview
2024 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview Facing adversity is nothing new for Cleveland football fans. The Browns were decimated by injuries in 2023 but Kevin Stefanski did a remarkable job rallying the squad to an unlikely playoff berth and earned NFL
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2024 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Preview
2024 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Preview A year after winning the AFC North, Zac Taylor’s squad struggled out of the gate before a winning October put them back in contention. Then they lost Joe Burrow before another unlikely win streak had the Cardiac Cats on the verge of the AFC playoffs. Nearly overcoming that adversity was a testament to Taylor’s coaching. With Burrow back, the Bengals project to be contenders in 2024. Burrow’s poor play was largely to blame for Cincinnati’s 1-3 start. However, things clicked in Week 5. During the team’s four-game win streak, he topped 22 fantasy points three times. Ultimately, Burrow’s campaign ended in Baltimore with a right scapholunate ligament tear. Last season stands out as an anomaly on Burrow’s resume. He was an elite fantasy signal-caller in each of his previous two campaigns and the 2024 Bengals should rely on the pass even more. Expect Burrow to contend for overall top-5 numbers this season. Ja’Marr Chase saw a dip in production but it wasn’t due to lack of volume. Chase absorbed a career-high 145 targets in 16 games. Chase’s 24.5% target share was also the highest of his career. Considering the uncertainty in Cincinnati’s receiving corps and assuming we get a fully healthy Joe Burrow under center makes Chase one of the safest picks in fantasy and every bit worthy of a top-3 overall selection. Tee Higgins was franchise-tagged but has been at an impasse with the team. Higgins is one of the better WR2s in the league but wants the chance to shine as the top dog. Assuming he returns to the Bengals, Higgins will be plenty motivated to play for a lucrative long-term contract. The Bengals also used the 80th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Alabama WR Jermaine Burton. Burton has good size and speed and is more of a downfield playmaker than Tyler Boyd. The rookie is an intriguing late-round fantasy sleeper, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Higgins. Taylor employed a committee approach to the tight end position. No TE exceeded 50 targets last season or ranked inside the top 30 fantasy scorers. The club signed Mike Gesicki to presumably take over as the starter. However, fourth-round Iowa rookie Erick All is a dark horse to win the starting role and emerge as a waiver-wire asset. With Joe Mixon traded to Houston, Zack Moss takes over as the team’s lead back. Moss filled in admirably for Jonathan Taylor last year, averaging a career-high 10.0 PPR points per game (23rd). Taylor likes to include his backs in the passing game, so Moss is a sneaky bet to be a solid RB3/flex option. Second-year rusher Chase Brown got a chance to contribute late last season and could play his way into the mix. Quarterbacks QB JOE BURROW – SOLID/SAFE PICK A pair of injuries bookended an erratic 2023 campaign for Joe Burrow. A July calf ailment resulted in a rusty start. Then, Burrow got healthy and averaged 21.4 fantasy points per contest during the team’s 4-1 stretch through Week 10. Ultimately, a wrist injury ended Burrow’s season in Week 11. He’s expected to be fine for 2024 but that mid-season stretch of a healthy Burrow is what piques our interest. With the addition of Jermaine Burton and Mike Gesicki plus the loss of Joe Mixon, the Bengals will rely on Burrow more than ever. He’s firmly in the conversation to be a top-5 fantasy option and the discounted price makes him a solid mid-round value. ADVICE: Safe QB1. Running Backs RB ZACK MOSS – SLEEPER (UNDERVALUED) Zack Moss filled in admirably for Jonathan Taylor last season. He was so effective that he continued to have a weekly role in Indy’s offense. Now, it appears that Moss will open the season atop Cincinnati’s depth chart after the Bengals shipped Joe Mixon to Houston. Mixon was used as a workhorse, inviting some optimism that Moss could potentially see 250-plus touches in a solid Bengals attack. Chase Brown will also work into the mix, but Moss’s tackle-breaking ability and solid receiving skills make him the favorite for early-down work and short-yardage opportunities. ADVICE: Excellent sleeper candidate in the middle rounds. RB CHASE BROWN – QUALITY BACKUP Joe Mixon and his 78.9% opportunity share are gone. In his place, the Bengals signed Zack Moss to a relatively modest contract. The expectations are that Cincinnati will move to a committee backfield. Moss has always shared time and we saw snippets of what Brown could do in the second half of 2023. Brown averaged 5.8 yards touch and 4.2 yards after contact. He’s got that breakaway ability that will make him a nice change-of-pace option from Moss. The split could be closer than many think, with Brown acting more as an RB1B than RB2. That makes Brown an appealing ‘dead zone’ target. ADVICE: Dead zone sleeper extraordinaire. Wide Receivers WR JA’MARR CHASE – STUD (LOW RISK) Touchdowns matter and no wide receiver has drawn more weekly red-zone targets than Ja’Marr Chase, who earns 1.64 per game. And part of that came in a trying 2023 season that saw the Bengals hobbled by injuries to QB Joe Burrow. The combination of Burrow and Chase is one of the top duos in football, with league-winning upside. Even with Jake Browning playing 469 snaps, Chase still ranked top 30 in yards per route run (2.2), contested catches (11), and missed tackles forced (17). He’s an elite option primed to make a run at the overall WR1 if Burrow stays healthy for 17 starts. ADVICE: Locked-in first-round WR with No. 1 overall upside WR TEE HIGGINS – SOLID/SAFE PICK Rib and hamstring injuries cost Tee Higgins five games last season. Joe Burrow’s health-related struggles also played a factor in Higgins having his worst fantasy performance in 2023. However, he’s now healthy and entering a contract year fully intent on grabbing that bag. Even in a down year, Higgins still had four top 10 weeks and was top 20 in air yards share (35.9%) and yards per reception (15.6).
2024 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview
2024 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview Baltimore finished sixth in offense and defense in 2023, but another disappointing playoff loss saw the top-seeded Ravens ousted in the AFC Championship. Even after leading the league in rushing, there will be wholesale changes
Baltimore finished sixth in offense and defense in 2023, but another disappointing playoff loss saw the top-seeded Ravens ousted in the AFC Championship. Even after leading the league in rushing, there will be wholesale changes to Baltimore’s offense in 2024.
QB Lamar Jackson’s first season in Todd Monken’s offense was a success. Jackson completed a career-best 67.2% of his attempts and set a personal best with 3,678 passing yards. On a per-game basis, Jackson rushed less than he was accustomed to but still led the position with 821 yards on the ground.
In all, Jackson finished fourth in fantasy scoring despite being the centerpiece of a run-first offense. The Ravens have only produced one 1000-yard wide receiver during Jackson’s tenure. Finding weapons to restore balance to Baltimore’s attack would go a long way.
Second-year WR Zay Flowers is the logical choice to join Marquise Brown as Jackson’s next 1000-yard wideout. Flowers led the Ravens in targets (108), catches (77), and yards (858) during his rookie campaign. Flowers began to assert himself as a legit No. 1 receiver during the playoff drive. He is a strong breakout candidate with top-20 upside.
After Flowers, things are more uncertain. Rashod Bateman is a candidate to see an increased role, but Bateman hasn’t been able to stay healthy or live up to his first-round billing. The Ravens also added Devontez Walker from North Carolina with a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Walker boasts 4.36 speed and will compete with Bateman and Nelson Agholor for WR3 snaps.
TE Mark Andrews remains the best bet to lead the club in targets and touchdown grabs. Andrews ranked fifth in PPR points per game but missed nearly half the campaign with an ankle injury. An Andrews/Jackson stack is among the top contrarian builds to exit your draft with.
Third-year TE Isiah Likely faired well when Andrews was sidelined. Given Baltimore’s lack of depth in the receiving corps, expecting Monken to utilize 12 sets more often than last year’s 11.1% (27th in the league) seems like a good bet.
When the NFL’s top-ranked rushing attack adds a stud fantasy option like Derrick Henry, fantasy managers should take notice. Henry is showing signs of slowing down. However, he is an elite touchdown scorer and a strong bet to lead the league in that category in 2024. He won’t catch a ton of passes in this offense, but Henry looks like a good bet for 1,200 rushing yards and 12-14 scores.
The Ravens will remain a run-heavy offense that features a potential top-10 player at three positions and a sophomore wideout that could break out in a big way.
Quarterbacks
QB LAMAR JACKSON – STUD (LOW RISK)
Year One in Todd Monken’s offense resulted in the finest passing season of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson set career-best numbers in attempts (457), completions (307), completion rate (67.2%), and yards (3,678). He also remained one of the position’s most potent rushing threats, leading all quarterbacks with 821 yards and an additional five scores on the ground. Baltimore doesn’t have the deepest receiving corps, but the addition of RB Derrick Henry will further help open things up downfield for a Ravens offense that led the league in rushing last season and ranked fourth in points. Since entering the league, Jackson’s rushing production has given him a safe floor behind an elite offensive line. ADVICE: Elite starter with top-3 upside…
2024 Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview
2024 Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview The Commanders were a disaster but they are making progress after finishing last in the NFC East in 2023. After selecting Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick in the draft, Washington will look quite
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2024 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
Welcome to our 2020 Fantasy Football Team Outlook series. Check out our statistical and in-depth analysis for EVERY player on EVERY NFL roster!
Pro Forecast Magazine “Bloopers” Corrections
Pro Forecast Magazine “Bloopers” Corrections If you’ve been a fantasy football fan for any number of years, chances are you’re very familiar with the annual Pro Forecast Fantasy Football Magazine. A multi-time winner for the FSWA Magazine of the Year, the Football Diehards annual has been a staple for fantasy football fanatics for 35 seasons. When word came that our friend Emil Kadlec would have to shutter the magazine as he battles cancer, the FullTime Fantasy crew stepped up to assure that the Pro Forecast Fantasy Football magazine would carry on Emil’s legacy. Print media is a whole new challenge for us. However, Emil remained the centerpiece of our effort and helped guide us along on the journey. We’re proud of the results and are confident it will remain one of the top-selling publications of the summer. However, this first foray wasn’t without hiccups. Between rapidly approaching deadlines and communication hurdles with publishers, some mistakes made it into the pages. We believe in being transparent and want to make corrections for all of our readers. With one challenging issue under our belts, we’re confident that next season’s magazine will continue Emil’s tremendous tradition and quality. Here are those revisions. Corrections •Bijan Robinson’s Player Capsule (Page 80) talks glowingly of Josh Allen. However, most readers are more interested in Robinson’s profile. Here it is. RB Bijan Robinson, ATL – Stud (low risk) Giving Bijan Robinson just one game all season with 20-plus rushing attempts earned Arthur Smith a Crimes Against Fantasy Award. Robinson got fewer attempts than Devin Singletary but still finished his rookie campaign as an RB1 thanks to his 86 targets, which were tied for second among running backs. Additionally, with Smith gone, Robinson is primed to see a much bigger role with Zac Robinson running the offense. Robinson came from the Rams who adhered to a feature-back system. The presence of Kirk Cousins will only help Robinson and the Falcons. Look for Robinson to see a boost in touches in his second season and be a strong breakout candidate. ADVICE: Locked-In RB1 with position-leading upside •The consensus expert TE rankings (TOTAL) on Page 44 list the top 10 quarterbacks instead of tight ends. It should read: LaPorta Kelce Andrews McBride Kincaid Kittle Engram Pitts Njoku Ferguson •On Page 22, Brian Robinson Jr. has the profile for James Conner. Here is B-Rob’s correct capsule. RB BRIAN ROBINSON – SLEEPER (UNDERVALUED) Even though he saw fewer touches in his second season, Brian Robinson was far more efficient. He broke more long runs, forced more missed tackles, and punched in three more scores. The biggest surprise for Robinson was his receiving production. He reeled in 36-of-43 targets and averaged a whopping 10.2 yards per catch with four more TDs. Unfortunately, Austin Ekeler will eat into Robinson’s opportunities, especially as a receiver. QB Jayden Daniels will also be a threat to steal goal-line looks but Robinson will command most of the early-down work in an improved Commanders’ offense. He remains a viable RB3/Flex option. ADVICE: Another excellent sleeper to target in an exciting offense •David Montgomery (Page 22) has Jahmyr Gibbs’s stats listed. Here are Montgomery’s 2023 projections: 230 attempts, 1030 rushing yards (4.48 YPC), 10 rushing TDs, 19 receptions, 125 receiving yards (6.58 YPR), 0 TD, 194.5 PPR pts. •Isiah Pacheco and Breece Hall have 2022 receiving stats, not 2023. • On Page 78 Matt Stafford’s stats are correct but listed as DET, not LAR. • Page 106 “It All Starts Up Front” accidentally used the article from the 2023 annual. Adam’s corrected 2024 Offensive Line Rankings can be found here. • Kyren Williams’s profile (Page 81) incorrectly identifies Sean Payton instead of Sean McVay. • Travis Kelce’s 2023 stat lines were incorrect. They should read 93 catches, 984 yards, and five touchdowns. (Page 98) All of these have been corrected in the digital version which will be released very soon.
Elite Running Back that Vegas is Fading in 2024
Elite Running Back that Vegas is Fading in 2024. Long-time Las Vegas gambler and ranked high-stakes fantasy player Frank Taddeo (@RespectedMoney on X) is always watching Vegas oddsmakers to identify best bets and fantasy values. COULD THIS RB1 BURN FANTASY MANAGERS in 2024? In our initial series of highlighting players who are witnessing significant movement in their 2024 NFL betting markets here at Fulltime Fantasy, we dove into a rookie running back expected to make a major impact in 2024 as well as a wideout who may struggle to return fair ADP value. A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook. The latest installment leads us to new Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley. The former Giants standout lands in Philadelphia after signing a three-year, $37.75 million contract in free agency. The expectations are the highest they have ever been for the two-time Pro Bowl back who has scored 47 touchdowns in his first six seasons in the NFL. Saquon Barkley just posted this edit on his Instagram 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/AXcvVwLd6T — Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) March 12, 2024 Fantasy managers are investing premium draft capital in Barkley in early FFWC drafts. The 2018 OROY owns an ADP of 15.9 / RB6 after coming off the board as high as 13 with a low of 18. Due to the dynamic running ability of dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts, can Barkley yield enough production in his first season on Broad Street to reward those who invest high draft capital? VEGAS ODDSMAKERS FADING POTENTIAL PRODUCTION Over the last three seasons, three different Eagles players have led the club in rushing: 2023 D’Andre Swift (1,049); 2022 Miles Sanders (1,269), and 2021 Jalen Hurts (784). Oddsmakers, who initially installed Barkley with a rushing yard betting projection of 1125.5, have adjusted the tailback down to a betting demand of 1025.5 at DraftKings. While only shaving his production by 100 yards, the most alarming move is currently being witnessed in his overall total rushing touchdown projection sliced from 9.5 to 6.5. “A FULL three rushing touchdown fade may lead to a higher ADP in high stakes drafts held later this summer as word of this move spreads. ” – Frankie Taddeo Following the retirement of future HOF center Jason Kelce, many expected the Eagles to employ the “Tush Push” less frequently with Barkley now owning lead backfield duties. However, oddsmakers are now tempering their expectations for significant goal line volume. Barkley, who came off the board at 2.5 in the latest Circa Championship Draft held on June 30, has also seen his receiving yards betting projection reduced from 325.5 yards to 300.5. WR1 Saquon Barkley? 🤔 4 receptions 57 receiving yards 2 TDspic.twitter.com/BpnGkgnxxe — NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 19, 2023 The move in his receiving yards market is perplexing as Barkley totaled 288 receptions for 2,100 yards and 12 touchdowns working out of the backfield – despite less-than-ideal QB play during his NY tenure. If we remove his 2020 campaign (torn ACL – played only two games), Barkley has averaged 408 receiving yards per season (721, 438, 263, 338, 280). In Philadelphia, Barkley will now play with one of the best signal-callers in the NFL in Hurts. Last season Eagles RBs hauled in 74 receptions, sans a back of Barkley’s pass-catching prowess. Despite the fade in betting markets, fantasy managers should not be afraid to invest second-round draft capital in the dynamic Barkley as he will be playing in a Top 5 NFL offense for the first time in his career. For the past 15 years, Football Contest Proxy has provided the leading service to submit picks in major Las Vegas football contests from anywhere in the world and built FootballContest.com into the top online destination for football contest info. All you need to do to enter is sign up in person sometime before football season kicks off. FCP does the rest as your proxy – it really is that easy. Simply plan your trip to Vegas and schedule a time with FCP to get signed up for whatever contest(s) you want to enter. As a proxy partner of FullTimeFantasy, you can also SAVE $50 through September 2 by clicking here. Just enter promo code FANTASY at checkout for instant savings, so make your best pick and go with the pros at FootballContest.com!