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2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is simple: actually use the abundance of skill position talent the Falcons have accrued.

Having a quality leader is paramount to accomplishing that goal. Enter new QB Kirk Cousins, a huge improvement over Desmond Ridder. Cousins signed a four-deal with $100 million guaranteed after posting top-10 fantasy points per game numbers in each of his last four campaigns.

Since becoming a starter, Cousins has averaged 4,264 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season. Cousins gives the Falcons their best quarterback since prime Matt Ryan. With the weapons around him, Cousins should once again be one of the top fantasy football value targets. However, he is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury and was ‘stunned’ when the club used the No.8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Michael Penix. It was a questionable move and worth monitoring all summer.

Bijan Robinson was given more than 15 carries just four times in his rookie season, yet still posted over RB8 numbers. That inexplicable lack of usage will change with Zac Robinson calling plays. Zac Robinson comes from a Rams’ system that force-fed their lead back more than any other team. Fantasy managers fortunate enough to draft should be equally excited. B-Rob has the talent to be the No. 1 overall fantasy option in 2024.

The biggest impact Kirk Cousins will have is on an Atlanta passing attack that ranked 26th last season. Cousins has a long history of heavily targeting his No. 1 wideout. This will be huge for Drake London, who should top 130 targets for the first time in his career.

Atlanta also spent big to upgrade one of the thinnest receiving corps in football. Darnell Mooney is a downfield speedster who will benefit from Cousins’s deep-ball accuracy. Moore will function closer to the line of scrimmage, taking the occasional handoff and acting as an outlet option.

The biggest benefactor of the Cousins signing might be TE Kyle Pitts. Despite running only 14.9% of his routes as an in-line tight end, Pitts was criminally underutilized by the previous regime. Pitts should continue to see plenty of reps from the slot and perimeter and is a good bet to see a big boost in target share.

Atlanta has top-10 talent at all three skill positions, giving them a lot of leverage and depth for a creative play-caller. This team should get involved in several “track meet” types of contests. Fantasy managers should not hesitate to target the new dirty birds.

Quarterbacks

QB KIRK COUSINS – QUALITY BACKUP

Because he’s been so consistently productive, averaging over 4,263 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season since becoming a starter, Kirk Cousins has been one of the top fantasy values annually. But a torn Achilles and a change of address to Atlanta complicate his 2024 status. As does the baffling choice to draft Michael Penix Jr. We know Cousins can sling it. He’s posted QB1 fantasy points per game numbers in three of the past four seasons. The Falcons also boast some intriguing skill-position talent and the league’s easiest strength of schedule. A healthy Cousins can be an elite fantasy option but fantasy managers have to mitigate significant risk this season. ADVICE: Risk/reward QB2…

 

2024 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview

A new era dawns in Tennessee. The Titans’ surprising dismissal of Mike Vrabel opens the door for Brian Callahan to begin his NFL coaching career. It’s a daunting challenge for Callahan, who takes over a team that bottomed out in 2023. Tenneesse ranked 29th in passing last season and allowed their star RB to leave.

The process begins with sophomore signal caller Will Levis.”My relationship with (Will), his relationship with me and Nick (Holz) and (QBs coach) Bo (Hardegree) is going to be really a critical factor in our success,” Callahan said about Levis. Having the confidence of your new head coach is promising, but Levis struggled as a rookie.

After a monumental NFL debut, Levis went 2-6 as the starter, averaging 207 passing yards per game. Levis completed just 58.4% of his attempts and tossed four touchdowns in his final seven starts. These weren’t unexpected growing pains for the 2023 second-rounder, but Levis has a lot to prove before he becomes a fantasy option.

Fortunately, the Titans made significant investments to surround their young QB with a talented supporting cast. The biggest splash was signing WR Calvin Ridley to a four-year $92 million deal. Ridley (76/1,016/8) was a top-20 fantasy wideout last season and gives Tennessee a pair of outstanding perimeter wideouts with DeAndre Hopkins.

Callahan’s offenses in Cincinnati were productive enough to field a pair of solid receivers annually. If Callahan can coach up Levis, Hopkins, and Ridley should each command a target share north of 25% and contend for WR2 numbers.

Treylon Burks has been limited to 22 games in two seasons and his career arch is trending toward bust. Only 31% of Burks’s routes came from the slot in 2023, making it hard to envision him making an impact there. Kyle Phillips (89% slot rate) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 52%) will mix in as auxiliary pieces.

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo ranked 15th with 54 grabs a year ago. However, Okonkwo was featured far closer to the line of scrimmage and only scored one TD. His volume should be fine but the third-year tight end is merely a solid TE2 for fantasy purposes.

With Derrick Henry in Baltimore, the Titans signed Tony Pollard to take over. Pollard was a significant disappointment in 2023 and it is difficult to foresee him improving his fantasy output behind a transitioning offensive line. Additionally, Pollard will split touches with second-year runner Tyjae Spears, who ranked ninth at the position with 70 targets last season in a reserve role.

Tennesse’s rebuild is just beginning and Will Levis is still a major question mark. Despite the presence of some solid players, that makes the Titans a risky bet on draft day.

Quarterbacks

QB WILL LEVIS – BYE WEEK FILL-IN

Outside of his monumental debut in Week 8, Will Levis had a forgettable rookie season. In his other eight starts, Levis threw for four touchdowns, four interceptions, and finished outside of the weekly top 20 five times. The good news is that the Titans have fully invested in Levis as their starter and spent significant draft capital and free-agent money surrounding him with supportive talent. Levis led the NFL with an 11.1 average depth of target, so expect the new regime to scheme up ways to improve his efficiency. Tennessee has a favorable schedule, so a Year Two jump isn’t out of the question. However, Levis is well off the fantasy starting radar. ADVICE: Low-end QB2…

2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview

The 30th season in Jacksonville Jaguars history sees the club at a crossroads. After an 8-3 start, the team lost five of their final six to miss the playoffs. With the division-rival Texans surging and facing a tough schedule, Doug Pederson has his work cut out in 2024.

QB Trevor Lawrence saw his numbers dip slightly in 2023. Lawrence rushed for a career-best 339 yards but his passing efficiency and production declined. He also missed the first game of his career, resulting in Lawrence finishing outside the top 12 fantasy scorers after finishing as QB7 in 2022.

Still, Lawrence is a good runner who will produce 4,000 passing yards and will be in a good position to challenge for fantasy QB1 production again. Drafters will also benefit from a slight dip in T-Law’s ADP.

The loss of Jacksonville’s top receiver (Calvin Ridley) will hurt. Enter Gabe Davis, who signed a three-year $39 million deal to act as the Jags’ main perimeter and deep threat. Davis was an erratic producer in Buffalo, with five 20-plus point games interspersed with four outings with zero points. The Jaguars and fantasy managers will need Pederson to unlock consistent targets for Davis to come anywhere near Ridley’s production.

Christian Kirk should reclaim his role as Jacksonville’s top wideout. Kirk missed five starts and only eclipsed 100-plus yards twice last season. With Ridley’s 22.4% target share now available, Kirk is a good bet to surpass 100 targets. Kirk is an excellent mid-round value.

After trading down, Jacksonville also added talented LSU rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. to the fold. Thomas has an outstanding blend of size (6-3, 209) and speed and is in play for deep-ball shots.

TE Evan Engram led the club in targets and target share while leading all NFL tight ends with 114 receptions. That insane volume led to Engram posting TE2 numbers in PPR formats. However, he’s unlikely to repeat his position-leading 143 targets with the added target competition.

RB Travis Etienne posted overall RB3 numbers thanks to a career-best 12 touchdowns. After surpassing five yards per carry in 2022, Etienne struggled to 3.8 yards per tote last season. Volume (325 touches ranked third) and that red-zone prowess were significant factors in his strong fantasy showing.

Pederson has indicated that D’Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby will be more involved in 2024. Additionally, fifth-round rookie Keiland Robinson adds depth. If these ancillary weapons are more involved it will be hard for Etienne to replicate last year’s production.

From a fantasy perspective, the Jaguars have quality options at every position but lack depth. There’s plenty of appeal but a Jags stack should be approached with caution.

Quarterbacks

QB TREVOR LAWRENCE – SOLID/SAFE PICK

After a rough start, Trevor Lawrence had five weekly QB1 finishes in his final seven starts to post his second consecutive top-12 fantasy season. Although the passing numbers aren’t overwhelming, Lawrence bolsters his value by averaging a healthy 19.3 rushing yards per game with 11 TD runs in three seasons. Lawrence’s fourth season sees him at a crossroads. He hasn’t developed into the superstar prospect many considered him and the Jaguars are just 20-30 during Lawrence’s career. However, he’s been a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option. Jacksonville will need inconsistent Gabe Davis to step up big in place of the departed Calvin Ridley if Lawrecne is going to post his third QB1 finish in four years. ADVICE: Decent target with limited ceiling…

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