Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5 Last week’s NFC East showdown didn’t live up to the hype. However, our Best Bet of New York +6 hit, so we’re content. For Week 5, we move down to the NFC South where
In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.
It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.
Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.
This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 1 | 30 | 16 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 22 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 29 |
The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.
Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.
The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.
New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.
On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.
The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?
Dallas Offense
Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…
How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?
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Week 5 Sleepers & Emerging Players
AllenWeek 5 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays This article is contributed by Brad Kruse This column is NOT intended to provide Week 5 waiver claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight. My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster. Now that we have four weeks in the books, I can start extrapolating on statistics a bit more reliably. Young Running Backs and Their Opportunity Status Bucky Irving: The story with Irving continued into Week 4. Irving and Rachaad White both had 10 carries for 49 yards in this game. Irving had the lone RB TD. White out-targeted Irving 2:1 in the game. Irving is earning snaps and opportunities in this offense. White hasn’t gone away but he’s used far less than last season. Irving can be put into lineups during the byes. Chase Brown: Brown did get the 50/50 split with RB carries in Week 4 that has been indicated as the plan since the off-season. Brown’s fantasy day was much larger with 80 yards on 15 carries plus two rushing touchdowns to go along with two receptions for 12 yards. Brown might be the back to own in this offense going forward, but Zack Moss is still playing well. Brown’s speed does jump out at you and Moss seems to be the preferred back in passing situations. Moss received all snaps in the two-minute drill and 60% of the third down action. Carson Steele: This might have been a short-lived lead-back role for Steele. After a fumble in the first quarter, Kareem Hunt led the way from the 2nd quarter through the end of the game. He played well enough for the offense to operate. Samaje Perine was still the preferred third down and two-minute drill back. That didn’t leave a whole lot of action for Steele. You might hold him if you can afford to for another week to see if he can reprise his role or if the fumble gave way to an opportunity that Hunt seized. Ray Davis: Davis again received some garbage time action in week 4. He’s not in the rotation enough to trust in your lineups and is strictly a handcuff right now who could split time with Ty Johnson if an injury happens to James Cook. Braelon Allen: The Jets seem to have a problem, although a good problem. They have two good running backs. Breece Hall is struggling running the ball this year averaging only 3.11 yards per carry. Allen is averaging a robust 4.81 and seems to be getting used more each game. Allen is averaging 9.4 ppg and would be huge if Hall were to get injured. He’s useable during bye weeks and a premium handcuff for fantasy managers. Roschon Johnson: The Bears have shrunk their three-headed running back committee to two backs. Johnson has gone from the outside looking in at the crowded running back rotation to part of the two-person committee. He didn’t have the break-out day many were hoping for as signals were coming in saying he would be used more. Johnson did get the majority of third-down work, he got a goal-line carry. But he ceded most of the two-minute snaps to D’Andre Swift who had a huge fantasy day. Johnson’s usage was encouraging despite the modest fantasy output despite the touchdown. He appears to be the current backup to Swift as he took about 25% of the early down work plus got the majority of third-down activity and one of the two goal-line touches. Jaylen Wright: With both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson OUT, Wright continued to earn opportunities. His usage excluded short yardage and goal line – all of those went to De’Von Achane, other than that he was used on early downs, third down, and even in the two-minute drill. He hasn’t yielded a fantasy day yet and the Dolphins offense is struggling without Tua. If he can carve out a role good things could happen once Tua Tagovaioa returns. However, he could also disappear once Mostert returns. Tank Bigsby: Bigsby played a fair number of snaps in week 4, but D’Ernest Johnson picked up 4 third-down snaps to Bigsby’s one. Bigsby again demonstrated his proficiency in running the ball with 90 yards on seven carries. Unfortunately, he didn’t receive any targets in the passing game, nor did he score a TD. He carries premium handcuff appeal as well as being usable during byes, but if Travis Etienne were to go down, the passing down work would like to go to Johnson. Breakout Wide Receivers Sophomore Wideouts Jayden Reed: Reed has continued with strong performances after his rookie breakout campaign. The crowded receiver room made many drafters nervous. But Reed’s talent has come to the forefront. He’s only run 72.6% of routes but is securing a decent, if underwhelming 18% target share. His yards per route run of 3.43 is elite. The Packers need to get him the ball more. Rashee Rice: Another rookie year breakout that looked to have a secondary breakout this year. Going into week 4, Rice was participating in 76.9% of routes and had an outstanding 31% target share from Mahomes. His yards per route run of 3.60 was looking to provide league-winning numbers for those who drafted him. However, in week 4 he looked to have suffered a significant knee injury. Many have speculated it was a season-ending torn ACL. At the time of this writing, however, they have yet to confirm that and provide any timeline. Hopefully, we will learn in the next day or two so fantasy managers can make appropriate lineup decisions. Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks got his QB back and, unfortunately, Watson
Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 5
Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 5 FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is
FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is the home of Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 5.
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Our staff was ranked No. 1 in 2022, with not one but TWO analysts inside the top 10. With proven projections and former FantasyPro’s Most Accurate Expert Jody Smith, FullTime Fantasy Members get instant access to reliable and trustworthy weekly rankings.
Jody also ranks inside the top 10 at FantasyPros for multi-year accuracy. That makes his combined draft and weekly rankings one of the most accurate and reliable in the business.
Additionally, Jody and Adam Krautwurst co-host the FullTime Fantasy Podcast, which is live-streamed weekly on YouTube. The guys are also active in the FullTime Fantasy Discord channel, helping answer all fantasy and sports betting inquiries.
Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 5
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Target & Touch Leaders Week 4
Target & Touch Leaders Week 4 Opportunity is everything in fantasy football. Looking beyond the box score to see what players are earning crucial targets and touches is integral. Our weekly Target & Touch Leaders Week 4 breaks down those
Opportunity is everything in fantasy football. Looking beyond the box score to see what players are earning crucial targets and touches is integral. Our weekly Target & Touch Leaders Week 4 breaks down those opportunities in a user-friendly way. Having this data can help fantasy football managers make informed decisions for Week 5 and beyond.
FullTime Fantasy Members will have access to this invaluable data every Tuesday. Subsequently, they will have a heads-up on making waiver wire claims.
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Week 4 Target Leaders
Overall Target Leaders
Overall Target Share Leaders…
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Injury Report: Week 5
Injury Report: Week 5 2024 will be remembered as a season filled with attrition. Another week is in the books and another round of injuries will impact lineups. Our Injury Report: Week 5 catches you up on the latest in the never-ending run of ailments. Also, a great starting point for staying updated on the latest injuries is to bookmark our NFL Injury Report. Finally, FullTime Fantasy Members will get the latest NFL injury news and advice live each Sunday and Thursday in the FullTime Fantasy Discord. Click below to join us today! Rachee Rice (WR) Kansas City Chiefs – Only in a season as cruel as 2024 could a star wideout be injured by his own QB’s errant tackle. It was immediately feared that Rice suffered a torn ACL. However, the fact that an MRI was ordered is a good sign. Still, we’re looking at a multi-week absence. “There’s a glimmer of hope open for the season,” @profootballdoc explains why the Chiefs not confirming a Rashee Rice ACL tear on Monday could be good news for the WR. #chiefskingdom ▶️https://t.co/ayUZWb8aWE pic.twitter.com/kYlvFPkVzB — Sports Injury Central (@SICscore) October 1, 2024 Anthony Richardson (QB) Indianapolis Colts – Separate hip and oblique injuries forced Richardson out of Indy’s Week 4 win. That victory was led by Joe Flacco, whose presence could cause Colts’ management to give their sophomore signal caller more time off to heal. For now, Richardson is day-to-day. Jonathan Taylor (RB) Indianapolis Colts – The Colts could also be missing RB Jonathan Taylor, who is dealing with an ankle injury. We will monitor his practice status this week and adjust projections accordingly. Jonathan Taylor – Late game right ankle sprain. Fits a potential high ankle mechanism, he had it taped up but didn’t return (remained standing on the sideline). Main concern: past history of right ankle injury. We’ll see if he practices on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/YHoCE1hNMY — Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 29, 2024 Malik Nabers (WR) New York Giants – Nabers exited Thursday’s loss with a concussion. The good news is Nabers has an extra two days to clear the league’s concussion protocol. Davante Adams (WR) Las Vegas Raiders – A hamstring injury suffered in practice kept Adams out for Week 4. Then, because…Raiders…. head coach Antonio Pierce allegedly liked an Instagram post that opined that Adams had played his last down for the team. This is leading to wild trade speculation. Additionally, some are questioning the validity of the hamstring ailment versus Adams simply being at odds with the staff. This remains a day-to-day situation we’ll have to monitor. More on this to come: A league source with knowledge of the situation confirmed that the @Raiders are growing open to the idea of trading Davante Adams. The source said the club has begun reaching out to teams to gauge interest in the veteran wide receiver. — Vincent Bonsignore (@VinnyBonsignore) October 1, 2024 Christian Watson (WR) Green Bay Packers – A “mild” high-ankle sprain will keep Watson out for 2-3 weeks. Dontayvious Wicks warrants immediate WR3 status while Watson is sidelined. Bijan Robinson (RB) Atlanta Falcons – Robinson is dealing with a hamstring injury and may not practice on a short week. We have downgraded his Week 5 projections. Christian McCaffrey (RB) San Francisco 49ers – The latest reports are McCaffrey has Achilles tendinitis in both legs. However, the team said that McCaffrey could begin light running duty soon. If those reports of tendinitis are correct, it’s doubtful CMC will be back anytime soon. Additionally, Jordan Mason is second in the NFL in rushing. Raheem Mostert (RB) Miami Dolphins – Mostert (chest) was close to playing on Monday. He’s questionable for Week 5 but trending in a positive direction. Will Levis (QB) Tennessee Titans – Levis hurt his shoulder on Monday. He was replaced by Mason Rudolph. Levis did not return. We will monitor his status this week and update Discord. David Njoku (TE) Cleveland Browns – Njoku (knee) will return to practice, putting him in position to play Week 5. Nick Chubb (RB) Cleveland Browns – The Browns opened the 21-day practice window for Nick Chubb. That means Chubb can practice and come off the PUP list. However, he’s not in the clear, but this is positive progress. Evan Engram (TE) Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars could get Engram (hamstring) back in Week 5. Jonathon Brooks (RB) Carolina Panthers – Carolina did NOT open Brooks’s 21-day practice window. ENTER OUR WEEK 5 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: Firstly, draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Next, try to stack the team with players you think will do well this week. Finally, the highest Week 5 Score wins. (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 5 Player Rankings to help. Firstly, it’s a best-ball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one. Secondly, you just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard. Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize at the end of the season! Finally, the Grand Prize Winner (highest individual week of the season) gets to choose from the amazing prizes below. If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! MEMBER PERK! Fulltime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Drafts each month in our contest! DRAFT YOUR WEEK 5 TEAM and enter the REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Circa Survivor Report: Week 4
Circa Survivor Report: Week 4 CIRCA SURVIVOR LESSON: NEVER TRUST THE NY JETS! Another week of NFL action, another popular selection takes out a large contingent of Circa’s Survivor NFL $1,000 entry fee contest. Contestants learned the hard way that the NY Jets franchise should NEVER be trusted. Despite being a touchdown-plus home favorite the Jets burned 110 entrants. Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix made history yesterday in their win vs the New York Jets: Nix became the 1st QB since 1970 to win a game when averaging less than 2.5 yards/attempt on 25+ attempts 😂 pic.twitter.com/9Au3Q3vxLA — NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) September 30, 2024 After winning two consecutive games, 17.1% of the pool backed Aaron Rodgers and Gang Green. However, the inept franchise was upset by rookie QB Bo Nix who set a dubious NFL record (see tweet above) 10-9 at MetLife stadium. Arizona was the fifth-most selected team as 36 entries selected Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to beat the Commanders at home. Jayden Daniels the last two weeks: 🪖 90.6% adjusted completion % 🪖 574 total yards 🪖 5 total TDs pic.twitter.com/RBO6vgS4hs — PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2024 However, the Red Birds were unable to contain the red-hot Jayden Daniels as the Commanders crushed the hopes of 5.6% of the contest thumping Arizona 42-14 After four weeks, only 480 (3.4%) of the starting 14,266 entries enter the month of October still alive. Detroit wins so nothing changes! That’s a wrap for Week 4! If you’re one of the 480 remaining entries congrats!#CircaSurvivor #CircaSports #SurvivorSweat pic.twitter.com/fmKpYi6TrW — Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) October 1, 2024 The nervous tension will intensify for the 480 dreamers as team byes commence in Week 5. This creates more pitfalls in the battle for $14,266,000 – the biggest Survivor prize in history. The Circa Survivor contest is a grueling contest that forces entrants to pick one winner every week, with no spread with one pivotal caveat. Entrants CAN NOT use the same team more than once during the course of the season. In an early look-ahead to Week 5, it is expected that: San Francisco (-7 ) vs Arizona and Seattle (-6) vs. the New York Giants will be the two most heavily chosen teams in the contest. However, a deeper dive reveals that week has the potential to knock another large number of entrants as 9 of the 14 games (64%) on the slate have a point spread of a field goal or less! Buckle up. Circa Hotel and Resort in Las Vegas is the proud home of FullTime Fantasy‘s renowned Fantasy Football World Championship! ENTER OUR WEEK 5 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: Firstly, draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Next, try to stack the team with players you think will do well this week. Finally, the highest Week 5 Score wins. (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 5 Player Rankings to help. Firstly, it’s a best-ball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one. Secondly, you just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard. Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize at the end of the season! Finally, the Grand Prize Winner (highest individual week of the season) gets to choose from the amazing prizes below. If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! MEMBER PERK! Fulltime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Drafts each month in our contest! DRAFT YOUR WEEK 5 TEAM and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Waiver Wire: Week 5
Waiver Wire: Week 5 Hard to believe we’re already into the second month of the 2024 fantasy football season. Week 4 had its share of highlights, injuries, and non-productive tight ends. The Waiver Wire: Week 5 will catch you up
Hard to believe we’re already into the second month of the 2024 fantasy football season. Week 4 had its share of highlights, injuries, and non-productive tight ends. The Waiver Wire: Week 5 will catch you up on the latest crop of low-rostered players to target for reinforcements.
Along with knowing who to pick up, FullTime Fantasy‘s Matchup Analyzer Tool will help you get the most out of your lineup.
Here are the low-rostered players you should consider adding before the season’s fifth week.
Dontayvion Wicks (WR) Green Bay Packers – After Christian Watson went down with a high-ankle sprain, Wicks played 58 snaps and absorbed a career-high 13(!) targets. Of course, we can’t count on that sort of fantasy-friendly game script each week. However, Watson is a candidate to miss multiple weeks, putting Wicks in position to be a WR3 or better for the foreseeable future. A healthy bid of 30-plus percent of your FAAB may be required. Teammate Romeo Doubs would be a solid consolation prize for those who miss out on Wicks.
Kareem Hunt (RB) Kansas City Chiefs – Hunt is most likely rostered in your league. However, an…
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Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 4
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 4 Another slate, another round of underwhelming scoring, and major injuries. At this point, every fantasy football manager has had to reach out for reinforcements to field a competitive lineup. Our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 4 will help you determine which players make good fill-ins, and which ones to avoid. Subsequently, our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 4 will help you navigate that turbulence to pick a winning lineup this week. Additionally, FullTime Fantasy has some of the top tools of the trade and accurate rankings. Quarterbacks Start ‘Em Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) at Detroit Geno Smith came out firing in Week 3, but after that, he didn’t have to do much as the Seahawks cruised past a Dolphins team missing Tua. The game was in hand, so Smith’s workload eased off. Detroit’s defense has already allowed over 300 yards to Matthew Stafford and a top-five fantasy finish to Baker Mayfield. While Kyler Murray didn’t light up the scoreboard last week, he missed plenty of chances. With the game indoors, Smith will likely have to keep pace with the Lions’ offense, making him a solid start. Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) vs. LA Rams Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy have shredded the Rams’ defense over the past two games, putting up huge numbers. Williams is coming off a 21.3-point fantasy performance against the Colts and should have another opportunity to shine at home against the Rams. He’s a low-end starter you can confidently plug into lineups across all formats. Sit ‘Em Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Philadelphia After tossing six touchdowns in the first two weeks against Washington and Detroit, Mayfield came back to earth against Denver in Week 3. Now, he faces the Eagles, who boast the stingiest pass defense in the league, allowing a completion rate of just 57.3% to quarterbacks in 2024. Mayfield is a clear sit this week. Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) at Houston Lawrence’s rough start to the season continued in Monday night’s blowout loss to Buffalo, where he put up just 9.4 fantasy points. With only two touchdowns and a season-high 220 passing yards so far, he’s been a disappointment. Even though the Texans were shredded by the Vikings last week, Lawrence struggled against them in two games last season, throwing just two touchdowns with two picks. Until we see more, he’s not a trustworthy option. Running Backs Start ‘Em Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers) vs. Cincinnati Hubbard has been a steady contributor this season, ranking 19th among running backs with 40.9 fantasy points. His best showing came last week with Andy Dalton under center. Hubbard’s role has been consistent, playing over 54% of the snaps and seeing a solid share of touches. Once rookie Jonathon Brooks is fully healthy, Hubbard’s value could take a hit, but for now, expect him to be the lead back for at least one more week. Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Indianapolis It says a lot about Harris’ season that his 13.6-point showing against the Chargers was his best so far. But this week, he’s worth your trust. Harris has been getting plenty of volume, with at least 17 carries in every game this season and nine total targets. Plus, he faces a Colts defense being torched by running backs. Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs both rushed for over 150 yards against Indianapolis. If you can’t start Harris in this matchup, then why even have him on your roster? Sit ‘Em D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears) vs. LA Rams Swift has been a non-factor so far, tallying just 37 carries for 68 yards and 10 targets for 46 yards through three games. The Bears might start increasing Roschon Johnson’s workload, further cutting into Swift’s opportunities. Swift has done nothing to warrant trust, and even in good matchups, he’s a low-end flex option at best until he proves otherwise. Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos) at NY Jets Denver’s backfield is a headache for fantasy managers, with three different running backs involved last week. Williams led in snaps and targets, but Jaleel McLaughlin punched in a touchdown, while Tyler Badie outpaced them both in rushing yards. And with QB Bo Nix using his legs more—he scored the other rushing TD—there’s simply too much uncertainty to start Williams in Week 4. Wide Receivers Start ‘Em Diontae Johnson (Carolina Panthers) vs. Cincinnati The switch at quarterback meant everything for Diontae Johnson in Week 3, as he exploded against the Raiders with eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets. Andy Dalton’s replacing Bryce Young seems to have unlocked something for Johnson, who’s in line for more heavy usage with Adam Thielen sidelined. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed at least 18.5 PPR points to the top opposing receiver in back-to-back games. Johnson looks like a strong start for Week 4 in all formats. D.J. Moore (Chicago Bears) vs. LA Rams D.J. Moore has been a consistent target magnet, tied with Amari Cooper at 27 targets this season. His fantasy stock has climbed every week, and his quarterback Caleb Williams earned his best PFF grade of the year in Week 3. Facing a Rams’ defense that’s been generous to wide receivers, Moore is in a great spot to continue producing. The Rams have given up the third-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Sit ‘Em Michael Pittman (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Pittsburgh Pittman has struggled through a lackluster season with few yards and no touchdowns. His deep-ball production has been nonexistent, and with the return of Josh Downs, Pittman’s target share could shrink further. The Colts face a Steelers’ defense that has been tough on wide receivers, making Pittman a risky play. Until he shows a bounce-back, it’s best to keep him benched. Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins) vs. Tennessee Without Tua Tagovailoa under center, Waddle managed just four catches for 26 yards on five targets in Week 3 against Seattle. Until we know who will be starting for the Dolphins in Week 4,
Week 4 NFL Player Props
Week 4 NFL Player Props Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to
Week 4 NFL Player Props
Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to a double-unit bet on Jauan Jennings after a pivot from George Kittle (who was a surprise inactive on Sunday). On the season, we are now 14-6 (70% conversion rate) and +8.9 Units! Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with our Week 4 NFL Player Props.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 4 NFL prop bets! Like last week, I’ll be featuring one Thursday Night Football wager since our Week 3 TNF Anytime Touchdown bet cashed!
Lamar Jackson OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Coming off a heavy workload, Derrick Henry may take a bit of a backseat this week, with Lamar Jackson poised to steal the spotlight—just like we saw in Baltimore’s season opener. And given the context of this matchup, it makes sense. The Bills’ front seven has shown some vulnerability, especially when it comes to stopping the run, despite their impressive 3rd-place rank in Run Defense Win Rate. A closer look reveals they sit at a lowly 26th in PFF’s Run Defense Grade, signaling potential cracks in their armor.
Lamar has cleared this line in two of three games this season. The two times he did it, he decimated the line with 122 rushing yards in Week 1 and 87 rushing yards in Week 3. He’s averaging 84.6 rushing yards per game through three weeks of the season and is going to need to use his legs to keep the chains moving.
#Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson is rushing at a RECORD PACE after three games⚡️
Jackson could shatter his record if he keeps it up📈#RavensFlock #NFL pic.twitter.com/UUe3jsom4q
— Football Forever (@fballforeverhq) September 25, 2024
What makes this matchup even more intriguing is Buffalo’s defensive scheme. Their tendency to anchor linebackers in coverage while relying heavily on just their front four to generate pressure leaves them exposed, especially against mobile quarterbacks like Jackson. Baltimore’s offensive line, which ranks above league average in both Run Block Win Rate and PFF Grade, is well-positioned to keep Buffalo’s pressure at bay. With minimal resistance up front, Lamar Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of open rushing lanes…
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second
In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.
It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.
Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.
This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 1 | 30 | 16 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 22 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 29 |
The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.
Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.
The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.
New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.
On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.
The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?
Dallas Offense
Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…
How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?
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