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Author: Shawn Childs

NFL DFS Running Back Report – Week 15

Running Backs Christian McCaffrey, CAR (DK – $10,000/FD – $10,400) With no touchdowns in his stat line over the previous two games, McCaffrey posted only two steady games (17.20 and 24.50 Fantasy points) despite plenty of chances in the passing game (24 targets >>> 7/58 and 11/82). Over the last four games, he gained only 3.8 yards per rush (61/231/1) while becoming more involved in the passing game (38/330/1 on 48 targets). Even with a downtick in Fantasy points compared to early resume, McCaffrey extended his streak with over 100 combined yards to seven games. Seattle is league average defending RBs (23.56 FPPG) with no team scoring over 35.0 Fantasy points. The Seahawks allow 4.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring 11 TDs with RBs catching 71 passes for 635 yards and one TD on 87 targets. I sense a great game for McCaffrey with a pair of TDs with plenty of fight on the scoreboard. Dalvin Cook, MIN (DK – $8,900/FD – $8,500) Late in the year, Fantasy owners need their star running back to be a stud to push them over the end zone for league titles. Unfortunately, Cook has been rather boring based on his expected value over four of his previous five games (15.60, 31.30, 16.70, 14.40, and 15.50). Over this span, he gained 3.4 yards per rush while averaging just over 21 touches per game. After leaving Week 13 with a shoulder issue, the Vikings had him on the field for only 47 percent of their RB snaps, which was well below his season average (about 70 percent). Even with fewer snaps, Cook still picked up 20 touches vs. the Lions. The Chargers played well defending RBs over the past two games (15.50 and 10.00 Fantasy points), which came after a disaster runs where LA allowed over 30.0 Fantasy points in five (33.40, 40.80, 34.10, 39.50, and 30.30) of seven games. The Chargers allow 4.1 yards per rush with RBs scoring 13 TDs with some success in the passing game (73/544/4). Priced too high for me, but I expect a TD with over 100 combined yards. Minnesota may temper his snaps again this week, thus limiting his upside. Derrick Henry, TEN (DK – $8,500/FD – $9,400) It’s been said I have commitment issues, which may have something to do with me being in the wedding drive-through for 20-plus years. In 2018, I owned Henry in a ton of leagues, but he ended up being a bench player for most of the year before shinning in Week 14 (17/238/4) and Week 15 (33/170/2). Needless to say, on draft day, I failed to add Henry on any team based on his draft value. In the end, he was well worth his fourth-round price point. Over the previous five games, he scored nine TDs with strength in Fantasy points in each contest (24.90, 33.10, 29.50, 24.60, and 23.90). Over this span, Henry gained 740 combined yards with ten catches while averaging almost 22 touches per game. The Texans fell to 27th in RB defense (27.68), with two teams having a high level of success at RB over the past month (BAL – 251 combined yards with three TDs and seven catches and NE – 230 combined yards with two TDs and 14 catches). Houston allows 4.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring 12 TDs. The Texans have a ton of risk defending RBs in the passing game (96/836/7 on 110 targets). A hot player with a rising salary, which keeps him in play in Week 15.  Nick Chubb, CLE (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,000) Chubb failed to be a Fantasy asset in the daily games in six of his previous six games (12.80, 13.10, 14.10, 9.20, 8.90, and 12.70 Fantasy points). His best value came in Week 4 (39.90), Week 6 (29.90), and Week 12 (25.40) when he scored six of his seven TDs. Even with some short Fantasy scores, Chubb gained over 100 yards in seven of his last 11 games while averaging 21.9 touches per game. Arizona ranks 21st in RB defense (25.11 FPPG), with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Cardinals allow 4.3 yards per rush with RBs scoring 11 TDs. RBs can beat Arizona in the passing game (72/632/4 on 86 targets). Even with Kareem Hunt getting in the way, Cleveland had Hunt on the field for 70 percent of their plays while running many two RB sets. An active runner with big-play ability, but his success at this salary level ($7,900) requires multiple TDs. More against the grain than a target even with a favorable matchup. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,500) The last 100-yard rushing game for Elliott came in Week 9 (23/139). Over the previous five games, he gained 330 yards rushing with three TDs on 88 carries (3.8 yards per rush). Elliott did average 20.25 Fantasy points over his last four starts thanks to a bump in value in the passing game (15/146/1). For the most part, he has been a much better player on the road (20.99 Fantasy per game). The Rams worked their way to 10th in RB defense (21.95 FPPG) with RBs having success in two games (Week 1 – 49.00 and Week 12 – 33.00 Fantasy points). LA allows 3.8 yards per rush with RBs scoring 11 TDs. The Rams will give TDs (4) in the passing game to RBs, but they’ve minimized the damage in the passing game (59/445). Elliott doesn’t have an impact game in 2019, and this matchup points to steady more than explosive stats. Saquan Barkley, NYG (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,300) The dream of Barkley turning on the jets in his production doesn’t look like it is going to happen in 2019. Since returning from his ankle issue, he rushed for fewer than 85 yards in seven straight games with weakness in his production in the run game (117/373/1 – 3.2 yards per rush). After shining in Week 8 (143 combined yards with a TD and

NFL DFS Quarterback Report – Week 15

Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,300) Mahomes hasn’t been seen at the top QB rankings at the end of any of the previous three weeks. Over this span, he posted 18.00, 21.25, and 17.75 Fantasy points while combining for 730 yards with four TDs and two Ints. Mahomes scored over 30.0 Fantasy points in four contests (31.10, 37.15, 31.60, and 34.30) in 2019 while leaving his Week 7 matchup vs. the Broncos after completing ten of 11 passes for 76 yards with one TD ad two Ints. Denver slipped to 6th in QB defense (17.52 FPPG) after struggling a bit against Deshaun Watson (33.00 Fantasy points). Only one other QB scored over 22.0 Fantasy points. They allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt with QB tossing 15 TDs. Not as sexy as Fantasy owners expected in 2019, but he still has upside in his receiving core even with a below-par matchup. Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,100) There is no doubt that Wilson is a great QB who knows how to win late in games when the ball is in his hands. As the Fantasy calendar turned to the championship rounds, a big game was a must. Unfortunately, the Rams dominated the lineup scrimmage on passing downs, which led to no TDs for Wilson with 273 combined yards. LA sacked him five times while forcing him to run for his life on many other plays. Despite ranking fourth in QB scoring coming into the week, Wilson has not been an edge in Fantasy points six of his previous seven games (17.75, 17.50, 19.90, 13.50, 20.30, and 14.30). His high ranking falls on five qualify games (28.20, 45.40, 32.60, 31.85, and 43.00 Fantasy points) over the first nine weeks. Carolina sits 10th in QB defense (19.18 FPPG) with no team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy from the QB position. The Panthers allowed over 300 yards passing in six of their previous nine games with WRs delivering five big games (17/277/2, 23/296, 16/244, 19/283/1, and 14/271/2). Wilson is due for a big game, and I expect Carolina to at least push the issue on the scoring board. Possible 300-plus yards with a floor of three TDs.  Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,200) Over the last 11 games, Winston passed for over 300 yards in nine contests with 24 TDs and 20 Ints. His best value came in three games (380/3, 385/4, and 456/5), putting him on pace for 5,341 combined yards with 33 TDs. Winston came out of last week’s game with a right thumb injury, which he’ll play through this week. Tampa lost Mike Evans in Week 13, which does hurt the explosiveness of the Bucs passing game. Detroit has risk vs. RBs (30th) and QBs (25th – 23.56 FPPG). Three opponents scored over 30.0 Fantasy points from the QB position. They allow 7.8 yards per pass attempt with 26 TDs. His passing yards should be there, but Tampa will score a TD or more on the ground, plus the loss of Evans will make their WRs easier to defend. Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200) After 13 weeks, Watson remains the second-highest scoring QB (25.70 FPPG) in four-point passing TD leagues. Last week he struggled to make plays, but a pair of rushing TDs and volume of pass attempts (50) led to his second straight games with over 30 Fantasy points (31.30 and 33.00). Watson had five other games of value (34.40, 30.35, 46.00, 34.20, and 30.55 FPPG). His floor is helped by his value as a runner (68/344/7). The Titans are league average defending the QB position (20.48 FPPG) with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Tennessee allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt with 19 TDs. This game could be played at a fast pace, creating possible upside for Watson and the Texans’ passing game. Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600) Twice over the last three weeks, Tannehill delivered impact games (35.95 and 32.45 FPPG) despite attempting only 45 combined passes in there two outings. In his seven starts, he averaged 26.42 Fantasy points with 18 TDs and four Ints. Tannehill passed for over 300 yards three games. Houston ranks 28th in QB defense (25.03 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Over the past nine games, seven QBs have three TDs or more vs. the Texans, with five teams passing for more than 300 yards. Tennessee continues to improve offensively, giving Tannehill another chance at over 300 yards with three TDs or more. Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,700) Momentum hasn’t been a friend of Mayfield in 2019 as his accuracy and mistakes outweigh any gains in his rookie season (27 TDs in 14 games). After this week, he’ll match 2018 in games played while falling short in TDs (18 in 13 contests) while making too many mistakes (16 Ints). Over the previous two games, he passed for only 388 yards with one TD and three Int. His only game of value in 2019 came in Week 12 (327/3). The Cardinals remain the worst defense in the league vs. QBs (27.98 FPPG), with six teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Arizona allows 8.0 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 24 TDs. A favorable matchup, but Mayfield averages only 13.25 FPPG game on the road.  Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,300/FD – $8,000) Rodgers has been worthless in all Fantasy formats in four (161/1, 233/0, 104/1, and 195/1) of his previous five games. Despite his regression, he still ranks eight in QB scoring (21.75 FPPG) thanks to four impact games (31.70, 48.05, 30.15, and 30.55 Fantasy points). This season Rodgers averages only 33.9 passes per game compared to 37.3 in 2018. The Bears held him to 203 passing yards with one TD. Chicago sits 7th in QB defense (20.80 FPPG), with only one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bears allow 6.6 yards per attempt with no team tossing more than two

NFL WR Report – Week 14

Wide Receivers Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,600) Thomas picked the wrong time to deliver his lowest output (6/48 on eight targets) of the season. Week 13 tends to be the final week of the regular season in the season-long contests. His step back in value ended a great seven-week run (70/881/5) when he averaged 11.7 targets per game. Even with the top WR ranking, Thomas only has one impact game (11/182/2) based on his high salary in 2019. His matchup vs. the 49ers led to a drop off in his salary ($8,300), which keep him in play this week. San Fran is 3rd in WR defense (26.78 FPPG – 119/1331/9 on 206 targets) with only two WRs gaining over 100 yards vs. the 49ers (Tyler Boyd – 10/122 and John Ross – 4/112/1). A big part of San Francisco’s success defending the pass comes from 45 sacks leading to 24 turnovers and four defensive scores. Thomas will have the edge over any 49ers’ CB while expecting to see Ahkello Witherspoon on most plays. Witherspoon struggled a bit in Week 3 vs. the Steelers when allowed a TD and a big play. After missing six games, he’s been unchallenged in three games against the Cardinals, the Packers, and the Ravens. Thomas will get open, and Brees will look for him on many plays. More of an against the grain play due to his matchup and his need for 30-plus Fantasy points to pay off. Tyreek Hill, KC (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,300) Hil came up short in Week 13 (5/55), but he was on the field for 81 percent of the WR snaps after leaving Week 11 with a hamstring issue. His failure vs. the Raiders was partly due to game score getting out of line early. Hill has two poor games in 2019, which both came from early exits after an injury. Over a five-game healthy stretch, he caught 31 passes for 527 yards and five TDs on 52 targets, which works out to 24.20 Fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring. Last year he dominated New England in the regular season matchup (7/142/3) while coming up empty in the playoffs (1/42 on three targets). The Patriots continue to lead the NFL in WR defense (23.57 FPPG – 120/1347/1 on 232 targets) with one WR gaining over 100 yards (6/102/1). CB Stephon Gilmore should shadow Hill. Gilmore hasn’t allowed a TD in 2019 with receivers having a low completion rate. An explosive WR with one-on-one coverage can lead to long TDs at times, but the wise move would be to look for a WR with more upside. Davante Adams, GB (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,400) Adams played well last week (6/64/2), but the weather and a couple of drop balls led to him failing to deliver over 100 yards receiving. He extended his scoring streak to two games (three TDs), and his double-digit target run to five games (58 combined targets – 11.6 per game). Since returning from his toe issue, Adams has 37 catches for 446 yards and three TDs over five contests, which works out to 21.12 Fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring. The Redskins are 18th defending the WR position (35.10 FPPG – 143/1765/15 on 205 targets) with three WRs (DeSean Jackson – 8/154/2, Julian Edelman – 8/110/1, and Stefon Diggs – 7/143) gaining over 100 yards receiving. CB Quinton Dunbar ranks well at his position this year, but he came up short last week vs. the Panthers while also having risk when defending a top QB/WR combination. Adams ranks as a top WR in Week 14 with a chance at 100-plus yards receiving with a TD. His downside could come from success of the Packers’ RBs and/or a minimal fight on the scoreboard leading to fewer attempted passes.  Stefon Diggs, MIN (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,000) Over the last month, Diggs only had one game of value (5/121/1) while coming up short three times (1/4, 3/49, and 4/25). His season started poorly over three games (6/1001/1) before shining over a five-game stretch (31/605/3), which included success vs. the Lions (7/143). On the year, Diggs averages only 6.2 targets per game. His opportunity doesn’t support his higher salary ($7,600) in Week 14. Adam Thielen looks to be trending toward another missed game, giving Diggs a chance at more targets. Detroit sits 27th in WR defense (39.04 FPPG – 165/2230/12 on 282 targets) with huge struggles vs. WRs in two of their previous three contests (DAL – 16/301/1 and CHI – 22/82/1). Five WRs (Larry Fitzgerald – 8/113/1, Stefon Diggs – 7/142, Michael Gallop – 9/148, Randall Cobb – 4/115/1, and Anthony Miller – 9/140) have over 100 yards receiving vs. Detroit. Diggs will draw Darius Slay in shadow coverage if Thielen doesn’t play, which isn’t ideal. Overpriced for me, and the Vikings should have their way in this matchup on the ground. Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,800) A short turn around for a Thanksgiving game led to Jones being inactive against the Saints. Jones gained over 100 yards in four games (5/106/2, 8/128/1, 8/108, and 10/152) in 2019. Last year he struggled in his two games against Carolina (5/64 and 4/28/1) with no real damage in Week 11 (6/91). His best game (12/300/1 on 15 targets) of his career against the Panthers came in 2016. Carolina ranks 23rd in WR defense (37.42 FPPG – 183/2131/5 on 284 targets) with six WRs gaining over 100 yards (Chris Godwin – 8/121/1, D.J. Chark – 8/164/2, Chris Godwin – 10/51, Davante Adams – 7/118, Calvin Ridley – 8/143/1, and Michael Thomas – 10/101/1). CB James Bradberry played well to start the year, but he’s trending in the wrong direction despite only allowing one TD on the year. Jones should play this week even if he’s limited in practice with his shoulder issue. Carolina will rush the QB while the Falcons have no choice but to air it out to win the game.

NFL Running Back DFS Report – Week 14

Running Backs Christian McCaffrey, CAR (DK – $10,300/FD – $11,000) The Panthers struggled to run the ball over the last two games (49/186/1 – 3.80 yards per rush), which led to a short showing in Week 13 by McCaffrey (17.20 Fantasy points). Carolina turned to him more in the passing over the previous three games (11/121, 6/69/1, and 7/58). He’s gained over 100 combined yards in each of his previous six games and ten of 12 games played. McCaffrey scored eight TDs on the road and at home, but he gained more yard per play in Carolina (5.7 yards per rush and 9.2 yards per catch – 4.4 and 8.0 on the road). In Week 11, McCaffrey gained 191 combined yards with 11 catches vs. the Falcons. Atlanta worked their way to 12th in RB defense (22.83 FPPG). They allow 4.0 yards per rush with RBs scoring ten TDs and some value in the passing game (61/443/3). Solid matchup while continuing to have a monster salary matched by his opportunity. Dalvin Cook, MIN (DK – $9,500/FD – $8,700) As the season-long schedule turned to the championship rounds in the high-stakes market, Fantasy owners received a big scare with an early exit of Cook in Week 12 with a right shoulder issue. The Vikings expect to have him in the starting lineup vs. the Lions. He scored a TD in three straight games while delivering two short games in yards (57 and 64). Cook doesn’t have a game on his 2019 resume to fill his high salary bucket for Week 13. His best game came in Week 10 (31.30 FPPG) with success vs. the Lions (149 combined yards with two TDs and one catch). Cook has a dozen TDs with plenty of value in the passing game (48/490). Detroit allows the third-most Fantasy points to RBs (29.44 FPPG), with six teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Lions allow 4.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring 17 TDs. Upside matchup for sure, but his higher salary and slight risk in a downgrade in touches does invite minimal exposure.  Derrick Henry, TEN (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,100) Over the last three games, Henry was a beast running the ball (23/188/2, 19/159/2, and 26/149/1) with minimal value in the passing game (6/36). His success pushed him to fourth in RB scoring (18.83 FPPG) while averaging 28.03 Fantasy points over his previous four games. Henry averages 20.75 touches per game with success in yards per rush (4.9) and yards per catch (11.8). Oakland sits 21st in RB defense (25.57 FPPG), with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Raiders allow 4.0 yards per rush with RBs scoring 15 TDs. Possible TD with another run at 100-plus yards, but his higher salary requires 30-plus Fantasy points for Henry to be in play in Week 14.  Nick Chubb, CLE (DK – $8,000/FD – $7,900) Chubb drifted back to 8th RB scoring (17.67 FPPG) after delivering only one game (25.40 Fantasy points) of value over the previous six weeks despite averaging 22.5 touches per game over this period. His best two games came in Week 4 (39.90) and Week 6 (29.90). Chubb only has one TD over his previous six starts. The Bengals rank 26th in RB defense (26.74 FPPG) with all of their failure coming over the first five games (55.80, 50.45, and 36.20 Fantasy points). Cinci allows 4.8 yards per rush with RBs scoring 12 TDs. Earlier in the year, the Bengals allowed over 200 yards rushing in four games (42/259/2, 38/266/2, 43/269/2, and 44/216). This week one half the Browns’ offense has a good chance of coming in. Chubb looks overpriced, especially when adding Kareem Hunt into the mix. Leonard Fournette, JAC (DK – $7,800/FD – $7,500) Over the last month, Fournette struggled to run the ball in three contests (11/40, 8/23, and 14/38). His value did rise in the passing game over the previous three games (7/34, 9/62, and 9/53). Fournette only has three TDs in 2019 with his best value coming in Week 12 (159 combined yards with two TDs and nine catches). He ran the ball at his highest level in Week 4 (29/225). On the year, Fournette averages 23.75 touches per game with the most value on the road (23.00 FPPG). The Chargers slip to 24th in RB defense (26.32 FPPG) after allowing over 30.0 Fantasy points to RBs in five of their previous eight games. LA allows 4.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring 13 TDs with value in the passing game (70/531/4). Fournette will be active in this game with a high chance at a TD with a run at 25-plus Fantasy points. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,300) I’d have to say that Bell hasn’t created a Fantasy buzz in any week in 2019. He ranks 13th in RB scoring (14.93 FPPG) in PPR leagues. He hasn’t rushed for over 70 yards in any contest with only three games with 20-plus Fantasy points (23.20, 21.90, and 20.10). He scored three TDs with serviceable value in the passing game (55/403/1). Bell gains only 3.2 yards per carry while averaging 19.3 touches per game. After a couple of down weeks in snaps, New York had him on the field 85 percent of their RB playing time in Week 13. Bell gained 121 combined yards with eight catches vs. the Dolphins. Miami ranks 27th in RB defense (27.08 FPPG), with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (one over the last eight games). The Dolphins allow 4.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring 14 TDs. Bell should score a TD with over 100 combined yards and some catches. Even with an uptick game and matchup, Bell still needs the best game of the season to fill his salary bucket. Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,600) Kamara worked his way to 11th in RB scoring (14.98) while missing two games. His only game of value came in Week 3 (37.10 Fantasy points) when he scored

NFL Quarterback Report – Week 14

Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,400/FD – $9,000) Even with a tougher matchup in Week 13 vs. the 49ers, Jackson still scored 24.35 Fantasy points, which was better than the fifth-highest scoring average for the QB position in 2019. His value last week game came again from his legs (16/101/1). He only needs 23 rushing yards to break the 1,000-yard barrier and 63 yards to set the NFL record for rushing yards by the quarterback position. Jackson scored over 30.0 Fantasy points in seven of his 12 games while failing to pass for over 170 yards in five of his previous seven games. The Bills rank third in QB defense (15.37 FPPG) with nine opponents scoring fewer 20.0 Fantasy points or fewer. Buffalo should defend Jackson in the passing game (6.2 yards per pass attempt with nine passing TDs allowed). The Bills do have risk defending the run (4.5 yards per rush with 11 rushing TDs). More steady than explosive with both teams expected to run the ball a lot. Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,400) The KC passing game lost its way in each of the last two games (182/1 and 175/1). Over Mahomes’ first seven full games, he passed for 2,550 yards with 17 TDs and one Int with his best value coming in four games (31.10, 37.15, 31.60, 34.30 Fantasy points). He passed for over 300 yards in six games with three or more TDs in five outings. Last year Mahomes passed for 647 yards and seven TDs vs. the Patriots in two games. New England continues to lead the NFL in QB defense (13.25 FPPG), with ten opponents scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. Even with the Patriots’ success vs. QBs, they did allow over 30.0 Fantasy points in two of their previous four games. On the year, New England allows only 5.5 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing only eight TDs. Great QB, who should challenge this defense. Against the grain play with a chance at 300-plus yards with three or more TDs. Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,400) After poor three games run (161/1, 233/0, and 104/1), Rodgers snapped out of his slump vs. the Giants when he passed for 243 yards with four TDs. His best two games came in Week 7 (429/5) and Week 8 (305/3). On the year, Rodgers has 23 TDs and two Ints while averaging 255 passing yards per game. The Redskins ranks 20th in QB defense (21.51 FPPG), with five teams scoring 28.0 Fantasy points per game. Washington allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 22 TDs. The Redskins haven’t allowed over 175 yards to the WR position since Week 2. Rodgers will get his passing yards with his RBs being active in the passing game. Worth a flier. Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,200) Over his last eight games, Cousins passed for 2,297 yards and 20 TDs with only two Ints. His only game over this span with no TDs came in Week 8 (285/0). His path over his hot run projected over a full season would come to 4,610 combined yards with 40 TDs. In Week 7, he passed for 338 yards and four TDs in his matchup in Detroit. The Lions sit 26th in QB defense (24.18 FPPG) with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. This week Detroit will start a third-string QB while also having a ton of risk defending the run game. Cousins projects well this week, which would be helped by Adam Thielen playing. In my thoughts, due to his chance at 300-plus passing yards with three or more TDs. Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,600) Over the last two games, Ryan was sacked 15 times, but he still passed for over 300 yards in each contest. On the year, Ryan passed for over 300 yards in nine of his 11 starts with 22 TDs. In Week 11, Ryan threw for 311 yards with a TD vs. the Panthers. Last week he didn’t have the services of Julio Jones, which may not be the issue this week. Carolina moved to 11th in QB defense (18.74 FPPG), with seven teams scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. Five of the previous eight QBs passed for over 300 yards against the Panthers with WRs having success in four games (17/277/2, 23/296, 16/244, and 19/283/1). The Falcons’ offensive line remains an issue, but he has the receiving talent to post 300-plus yards with multiple TDs. Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,700) Last week the big fear of starting Watson vs. the Patriots’ top defense ended up being a mistake for the owners with weak knees. He finished as the second-highest scoring QB on the week after passing for 234 yards with four TDs. His streak with fewer than 300 yards passing extended to five games. He scored over 30.0 Fantasy points in five other games (34.40, 30.35, 46.00, 34.20, 30.55). The Broncos dipped to fifth in QB defense (16.23 FPPG) after allowing over 20.0 Fantasy points to QB in their last three games (27.05, 21.85, and 20.25). Only one QB has over 300 yards with three TDs vs. Denver. The Broncos allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 14 TDs. May surprise thanks to his top two WRs. Jameis Winston, TB (DK – 6,400/FD – $7,700) Winston sits 6th in QB scoring (22.84 FPPG). He passed over 300 yards in seven of his previous eight games. His two impact games came in Week 3 (30.30 Fantasy points) and Week 4 (34.25 Fantasy points). Over the previous seven games, Winston has 11 TDs and 15 Ints. The Colts rank 12th in QB defense (18.74 FPPG) with no QB scoring over 23.0 Fantasy points over the last nine games. Indy allows 7.3 yards per passing attempt with QB tossing 19 TDs. Two teams passed for over 300 yards with three TDs (LAR – 333/3 and ATL – 304/30. The hint

NFL DFS Tight Ends Report – Week 13

Tight Ends Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,100) Despite underperforming his 2018 resume (103/1336/10), Kelce still ranks at the top of the TE end list after 13 weeks. He averages 15.48 FPPG in PPR leagues while still looking for an impact game to support his high salary. His opportunity and success are trending forward over the past three games (7/72, 7/75/1, and 7/95/1 on 26 targets), which is almost a similar path from Week 2 to Week 4 (7/107/1, 7/89, and 7/85 on 25 targets). Kelce struggled for the most part at home (13.24 FPPG). His best game of the season (26.70 Fantasy points) did come against Oakland. The Raiders are 27th defending TEs (14.07 – 51/584/8 on 84 targets) with three teams scoring over 20.0 Fantasy points. Mahomes should play great this week, which makes Kelce one of his top options to produce a big game. In my thoughts with a chance at multiple TDs and over 100 yards receiving. Zach Ertz, PHI (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,900) After three big games (9/103/1, 9/94, and 12/91/1 on 36 targets), Ertz moved to second in TE scoring (14.29) with a chance to gain over 1,000 yards and 100-plus catches for the second straight season. Over the first eight games, he scored only one TD with no games of value in the daily market. He enters this week with a shoulder issue while expecting to play. Miami is league average defending TEs (11.83 FPPG – 48/555/2 on 67 targets). Their only poor showing defending the TE came in Week 1 (14/175/1) vs. the Ravens. The Eagles don’t have great options at WR, plus their RBs don’t catch a ton of balls. Ertz should be active with a chance at a TD, but his salary now commands 26-plus Fantasy points to be in play. Tempting for sure based on his recent play and his matchup may spark the dying, passing game in Philly. George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,000) Kittle returned in a big way in Week 13 (6/129/1 on six targets) highlighted by 61-yard TD in the second half. He played well in four of his previous five games (6/70/1, 8/13, 6/86, and 6/79/1), but Kittle averages only seven targets per game. The Ravens worked their way to fifth in TE defense (9.25 FPPG – 43/467/2 on 62 targets). They’ve held TEs to fewer than 12.0 Fantasy points in seven straight games and in nine of 11 contests in 2019. More fade than excitement in Week 13. Hunter Henry, LAC (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,600) Henry is priced like a top tier TE, but his play has been only steady over his previous four games (4/47, 7/84, 4/30/1, and 6/69). He flashed in Week 6 (8/100/2) in his first game after four weeks with an injury with reasonable success the following week (6/97). Over his last six games, he caught 35 balls for 427 yards and three TDs on 49 targets suggesting that he’s the third option in the Chargers’ passing game behind Keenan Allen and the RB position. Denver ranks 22nd in TE defense (12.36 FPPG – 59/590/2 on 81 targets) with one disaster game (MIN – 10/115/1). This week’s game looks to fall in the grinder category, thus limited the upside in passing chances for the Chargers’ receivers. Possible midteen Fantasy points while falling short of a winning game for his salary. Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,500) It’s interesting to see many Fantasy owners wanting to micromanage the TE position with Andrews after some short outings over the last couple of months. What they don’t see is a minefield of emptiness at the position while Andrews has the skill set to be explosive if game flow breaks his way. The Ravens continue to rotate in two other TEs, which does hurt his targets if game score moves in the wrong direction. Over the past five games, Andrew has three low output games (2/39, 2/21, and 2/45) while showing upside in two starts (6/53/2 and 4/75/1). His best value came over the first two games (8/108/1 and 8/112/1) of the year. The 49ers have the second-best TE defense (6.56 FPPG – 37/246/2 on 54 targets), with only one team having success (8/62/1). Not the right kind of play in the daily games, but I would still play him in the season-long contests. Darren Waller, OAK (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,100) The league has caught up to Waller over his last few games. Over his first six games, he caught 44 of 50 targets for 485 yards and two TDs with two impact games (13/134 and 7/126/2). The Raiders have only looked his way 28 times in the past five contests, which led to 15 catches for 222 yards and a TD. The Chiefs held him to six catches for 63 yards on seven targets in Week 2 when his star was rising. Kansas City fell to 28th in TE defense (14.42 FPPG – 72/666/3 on 107 targets) after showing more risk defending TEs in four of their past six games (9/108, 7/56/1, 7/66/1, and 7/77). The Chiefs should score in this game, helping the passing opportunity for their players. Possible TD with an on the field battle with Kelce for the top TE of the day award.  Greg Olsen, CAR (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,100) The Panthers have included Olsen in their game plan over the previous three games (8/98, 5/57, and 5/44), making him serviceable again in the season-long games. His only two TDs came in Week 3 when he had his best game (6/75/2). Olsen is on pace for 65 passes for 771 yards and three TDs. The Redskins fell to 24th in TE defense (12.92 FPPG – 53/591/5 on 74 targets) after fading vs. TEs in the previous two games (NYJ – 6/129/2 and DET – 3/31/1). His lower salary ($4,400) helps, but Olsen can’t be in play without better value scoring TDs. I’ll take the under in his

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