Top Goalies
Semyon Varlamov (COL)
Varly has been great to this point for the red-hot Avalanche with a .950 save percentage and a 1.62 GAA. Colorado is 4-2-1 on the road this season and Varly has allowed just six goals in his four road starts. I expect him to see between 30 and 34 shots tonight and pick up a victory and with his underpriced salary on DK and his fair price point on FD that’s more than enough.
Carter Hutton (BUF)
Hutton was tremendous for about 58 minutes of his last start until he allowed a game-tying goal before losing in overtime on a goal that, quite frankly, wasn’t his fault. He stopped 36 of 38 shots and made some tremendous saves in the process. Facing the Senators tonight, Hutton is in a good spot and considerable on both sites in all formats. The Sabres are 7-1-1 in their last nine meetings against Ottawa with just 2.1 goals against per game.
Frederik Andersen (TOR)
I like the upside of Andersen a ton in this spot at home against the Stars who are just 1-3 on the road thus far. While the Leafs have been lacking a bit at home in their own right, Andersen has been seeing a ton of work in net which will only aid his upside tonight. Look for Andersen to see a ton of shots tonight in a high-paced matchup, which could turn out to be dangerous if the Stars are rolling. I don’t see that being the case, though especially with a banged up Alex Radulov who is a game-time decision.
John Gibson (ANA)
Gibson has been one of the best, if not the best goalies in the league to this point if you really dig into the numbers. He’s seen at least 30 shots in nine of his 10 starts to this point and 40 or more in each of his last two outings. Gibson faces the Rangers who are just 1-4 on the road and tied for 27th in the league with 2.5 goals per game. The 24-year-old netminder is in play on both sites with a manageable salary relative to his floor and upside.
Others to consider: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB), Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ), Jack Campbell (LA)
Key Three Skaters
Nathan MacKinnon (COL)
At a deep position tonight full of guys in good matchups, I prefer MacKinnon over them all. In 14 career games against the Flames, MacKinnon has seven goals, nine assists, and 49 shots. The Flames have allowed 17 goals, 28 assists, and 133 shots to centers thus far in 13 games attributing to the most fantasy points allowed to the position to this point. MacKinnon is averaging 22 minutes of ice time per game, 4.08 points per 60 minutes, has at least one point in 10 of 12 games this season, and has multiple points in five contests.
Steven Stamkos (TB)
Back as a center on DK, he’s priced at just $5,300, which is more than absurd. It’s clearly been a slow start to the season offensively for the Bolts, especially Stamkos, but Tampa came to life in their last game scoring eight times against a stingy Devils team which allow virtually nothing to their opponents as it pertains to fantasy points. Stammer had a goal, two assists, and four shots and quietly has points in four of his last five games. He’s not as much of a play for me on FD, where he’s still listed as a winger and priced up at $7,400, but on DK at his salary he’s a tough fade against Nashville who have allowed 15 goals, 15 assists, and 113 shots to centers in 12 games.
Connor McDavid (EDM)
McDavid doesn’t need any help, that is for sure, but in this matchup, he should feast. The Blackhawks have allowed the most fantasy points to centers so far including 16 goals, 29 assists, and 150 shots in 13 games. In seven career games against Chicago, McDavid has two goals, five assists, and 25 shots. Chicago is playing their second road game in as many nights giving McDavid an even better matchup with his ability to push the pace.
Favorite Line Stacks
Avalanche First Line – The “420” line
Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
The “420” line has been the most productive unit in hockey combining for 12 goals as a trio. MacKinnon, who I mentioned leads this charge with his speed and ability to control the puck. Landeskog is the best defensive player on the line at left wing and has three goals in his last seven games against the Flames, who have allowed 11 goals and 11 assists to left-wingers in 13 games. Over his last five games overall, Skog has five goals and three assists. Rantanen is the big-body right winger with great vision, rink awareness, and an uncanny ability to distribute the puck. Rantanen is third among all skaters in the league with 2.43 primary assists per 60 minutes and has three goals to go along with four assists in his last four games.
Lightning First Line
J.T. Miller – Steven Stamkos – Nikita Kucherov
On DK, this line is more than affordable with Miller coming in cheap, Kucherov severely underpriced, and Stamkos as I mentioned above basically free. Much like Stamkos, Kucherov is priced way down on DK at $5,900 and has come back to life of late with four goals and three assists in his last five games. Miller is a more than adequate plugin on this line skating with Stammer and Kuch on the top power-play unit as well.
Maple Leafs Second Line
Patrick Marleau – Nazem Kadri – Mitch Marner
Kadri has stepped up to the second line in the absence of Auston Matthews and has responded with a goal in each of his last three games. At $6,000 on DK and just $5,400 on FD, he’s a great value as he also skates on Toronto’s top power-play unit, one of the best units in the league. Marner has points in four of his last five games and leads all forwards with 2.85 primary assists per 60 minutes. He also skates on the Leafs’ top power-play unit. Marleau has gone cold of late but is a good value play for this line and someone that isn’t afraid to do the dirty work in front of the net.
Penguins Second Line
Carl Hagelin – Evgeni Malkin – Phil Kessel
Malkin has been the most productive point producer of all skaters in the league thus far with a league-high 6.31 points per 60 minutes. He’s fourth in primary assists per 60 minutes with 2.32 and average 7.97 shots per 60 minutes. Malkin has at least one point in all but one game this season and has multiple in six of 10 contests. Kessel has points in four straight games with three goals and four assists over that span. He also has at least one point in each of his last six games against the Islanders. Both Malkin and Kessel skate on the top power-play unit. Hagelin is just $3,800 on both DK and FD and is simply the guy to plug in if you start with Malkin and Kessel, build around them, and find yourself needing some value at your last wing spot. He brings a ton of speed to this line and often finds himself alone with teams turning their focus on Malkin and Kessel for obvious reasons.
Other Line Stacks to consider
Devils First Line – (Hall – Hischier – Palmieri)
Flames Second Line – (Tkachuk – Backlund – Frolik)
Sharks First Line – (Meier – Thornton – Pavelski)
Top Positional Plays
Players not included in “key three” or “favorite line stacks” sections
Center
As you can tell from my “Key Three”, center is a position that I don’t want to miss at tonight. There is a ton of depth here with some great matchups to consider.
John Tavares (TOR) – Expecting a heavier workload in the absence of Auston Matthews, JT has proved that he can handle it. He leads all centers with 8.69 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
Jack Eichel (BUF) – Jack has four goals and seven assists in nine career games against the Senators. Ottawa has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to centers (21 goals, 18 assists, 149 shots) in 11 games thus far.
Evgeny Kuznetsov (WAS) – Skates on the top line with Ovi and has a solid matchup against Montreal
Anze Kopitar (LA) – Kopitar has a goal and an assist over his last three games, pedestrian for his standards, but draws a good matchup against the Flyers who have allowed 20 goals and 24 assists to centers in 12 games.
Matt Duchene (OTT) – Good value here on Duchene who has three goals in his last three games. The Sabres have allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers with 23 goals, 18 assists, and 140 shots against in 12 games. He’s fourth in the league among centers with 2.06 primary assists per 60 minutes.
Tyler Seguin (DAL) – As a natural goal scorer, Seguin leads all centers in shots per 60 minutes by far with 14.98. The puck hasn’t bounced his way as much as he would like but in a game that should see a good amount of goals, he’s a pretty good bet to bury at least one.
Sidney Crosby (PIT) – Once again, he took advantage of the Islanders the other night and should do so against tonight in Brooklyn. He’s scored more points against the Isles over his career than he has against any other team.
Sean Monahan (CGY) – Points in each of his last five games, could go overlooked tonight.
Wing
Taylor Hall (NJ) – Hall has points in each of his last eight games and should continue that trend against the Red Wings who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to left-wingers, including 13 goals, 15 assists, and 80 shots in 12 games.
Alex Ovechkin (WAS) – Ovi has good numbers against Montreal overall (27 goals, 22 assists) in 49 games, but he fucking DESTROYS the Habs in Montreal. He loves the Bell Centre, it’s no secret.
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) – While his goal per 60 number is low for him (1.55), Vlad is second among wingers in shots per 60 minutes with 13.93. His luck is bound to turn and this is a spot to get him at a decent value at home.
Jonathan Marchessault (VGK) – Three goals in his last four games against the Blues and comes into tonight with 15 shots in his last four game overall.
Timo Meier (SJ) – I mentioned the other day how dangerous he’s been around the net with the fourth-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes among wingers with 7.69. The number nine overall pick in the 2015 draft looks to be finally coming into his own with six goals in his last five games.
Kasperi Kapanen (TOR) – Skating on the Leafs top line, a great pairing with Tavares, and top power-play unit, Kapanen has two goals in his last three games with seven shots over that span.
Rickard Rakell (ANA) – Left-wingers have given the Rangers issues this season with 15 goals and 89 shots in 12 games. Rakell is a goal scorer but is having a miserable start to his season and thus is a great value one-off tonight.
Anders Lee (NYI) – His solid net-front presence (6.46 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes) and ability to score the puck (two goals in last three games, 40 goals last season) make him a solid option against a leaky Pens defense.
Jeff Skinner (BUF) – Playing very well with five goals and four assists over his last five games and average 9.89 shots per 60 minutes.
Josh Bailey (NYI) – Good value in a game that should see offense again. Bailey has points in each of his last five games.
Johnny Gaudreau (CGY) – Has six goals and two assists in his last 10 games against the Avalanche and points in each of his last three games overall.
Viktor Arvidsson (NSH) – Arvy has five goals in his last five games and lines up against the Lightning who have allowed 11 goals and 80 shots to right-wingers in 11 games.
Craig Smith (NSH) – Eight among NHL forwards in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, 12th in shots per 60 minutes, and a great value skating on Nashville’s top power-play unit.
Defense
Oscar Klefbom (EDM) – The Blackhawks have allowed the most fantasy points to the defense position thus far. Klefbom has five points and 20 shots in his last nine games with 23 blocked shots.
John Klingberg (DAL) – Klingberg has points in three out of his last four games and faces the Maple Leafs who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position with nine goals and 17 assists in 12 games.
Drew Doughty (LA) – Doughty plays big-time minutes and has points in four of his last five games with 15 shots and seven blocks over that span. The Flyers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to defensemen with six goals, 27 assists, and 101 shots in 12 games.
Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI) – Ghost has the third-best Corsi-for per 60 minutes among defensemen at 17.74. He’s also ninth at the position with 7.7 shots per 60 minutes and has chipped in with 5.5 blocked shots per 60.
Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF) – Ice-time hog, good value, and a good matchup against the Senators who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to defensemen.
Morgan Rielly (TOR) – He’s been an offensive force thus far and is second among defensemen with 8.73 shots per 60 minutes.
John Carlson (WAS) – If you can afford him, he’s been neck and neck with Rielly as two of the better offensive-defensemen to this point. Over his last five games, Carlson has three goals, five assists, and 14 shots.
Brent Burns (SJ) – Running a nine-game point streak with three goals and 12 assists over that span.
Cam Fowler (ANA) – Fowler blocks shots, plays a ton of minutes, and has upside offensively. The Rangers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the defense position to this point.
Value
Ryan Ellis (NSH) – Blocks shots, sees a healthy amount of ice time, and has offensive upside.
Esa Lindell (DAL) – Toronto allows a lot of production to defensemen and Lindell has three points in his last two games while seeing over 20 minutes of ice time in every game this season.
Nick Leddy (NYI) – It has been a horrific start for Leddy, but he produced two assists in his last game, which was against the Penguins, and sees good ice time and top power-play minutes at a great bargain.
Darnell Nurse (EDM) – Chicago has allowed the most fantasy points to defensemen this season.
Damon Severson (NJ) – Has a point in seven of nine games this season and Detroit has allowed the second-most points to defensemen.
Brandon Montour (ANA) – I touched on the Rangers’ struggles with defense and Montour is just $3,800 on both sites.
Shea Theodore (VGK) – Getting a value d man like Theodore who’s heavily involved offensively (top power-play unit, sixth in shots per 60 minutes among defensemen), they always have to be in consideration.
Jake Gardiner (TOR) – Gardy is a solid pivot off of the higher-priced Rielly. He’s not going to block a ton of shots (10 in 12 games this season), but he has offensive ability with a goal and six assists on the season has some value in Toronto’s high-paced scheme.
Erik Johnson (COL) – Combines enough blocked shots with shots on goal to support his $4,100 and $4,600 salaries on DK and FD respectively.
Favorite Center – Wing Combos
Not including players mentioned in “Favorite Line Stacks”
Sabres – Eichel and Skinner
Maple Leafs – Tavares and Kapanen
Capitals – Kuznetsov and Ovechkin
Oilers – McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins
Kings – Kopitar and Brown
Flames – Monahan and Gaudreau
GOOD LUCK!!
