The 2018 Fantasy season is officially in full-swing, which means a number of dynasty startup drafts are taking place. This includes the Dynasty Fantasy World Championships, which attract a massive number of high-stakes players every year. These startups are drafted by some of the best players to play the game of dynasty, so loads of attention are given to these particular drafts.
This startup draft is one of the more intriguing and telling of how many 2018 drafts will likely pan out. The 2017 season is already showing its effects on this year’s drafts. Let’s see how this specific startup draft is proving to be the epitome of the effects of 2017 and what the majority of 2018 drafts will show.
Knee-Jerk Reactions
- The Saquon Barkley hype is real, and he better live up to expectation.
In recent memory, the player being taken at 1.01 usually is taken in the second round of startup drafts. Ezekiel Elliott peaked around the top of the second and rarely was taken in the top-12 players. Our Lord and Savior, Mr. Saquon Barkley, was the second overall player taken in this draft. The team who drafted him traded a load to move into the second spot with Todd Gurley being the only player off the board.
Barkley has yet to wear pads in a New York Giants uniform, and some of the best dynasty players in the community are selecting him as the second-most valuable asset. If he shows mediocrity in any way in 2018, Barkley is sure to disappoint those who invest this much stock in him.
- The Fantasy community as a whole is once again on the running back craze.
Rewind your memories to 2016, when the majority of the top-ten running backs did not finish the season. The community lost faith in big-investment running backs, and the wide receiver heavy drafts began to set in. 2017 provided startup drafts filled with early wide receivers and seven of your twelve league mates attempting to perform the zero-running back strategy drastically pushed down the value of all non-wide receivers. Two 2017 rookie running backs stole the hearts of their dynasty owners and broke the hearts of the rest of leagues. Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt were considered nothing more than really good dart throws, and now they are first round startup picks. Because of the influx of 2017 running backs, the craze is back.
Nine of the first twelve picks were running backs, with Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, and Antonio Brown being the only wide receivers taken in the first round. If you are at all participating in any kind of Fantasy Football draft, be prepared to cross T.J. Yeldon off of your cheat sheet before Travis Kelce.
- The late-round quarterback strategy will work better than ever in 2018.
Unless the league settings require teams to start multiple quarterbacks, the crop of NFL signal-callers is incredibly deep and provides excellent value in the late rounds of startup drafts. Through the first twelve rounds of this particular draft, several viable Fantasy quarterbacks remained on the board. Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Wintson, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott and some veteran quarterbacks were all still sitting in the free agent pool. Instead of sacrificing an early round pick on a quarterback such as Tom Brady or Drew Brees in order to attempt to win now, take an extra running back or wide receiver to contribute in the flex spot and “settle” for Jameis Winston in the 13th round.
Four of the above teams chose to pass on quarterback for the entirety of the first 12 rounds and another waited until Round 12 to select Matt Ryan. Choosing to wait on the position allows for depth at other positions while sacrificing only minimal risk.
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The Values
- QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Coming off the board as the 13th quarterback taken is again turning out to be one of the best values at the position. With an excellent combination of both reliability and production, Stafford will look to add yet another 4,000-yard season to his resume. Should he be able to accomplish this feat in 2018, it would be his eighth straight year to do so. Although the upside for both quarterbacks is there, Marcus Mariota and Andrew Luck should not be drafted ahead of the consistent Mr. Stafford. Despite turning the dreaded 30-years-old this season, Stafford is once again a steal at QB13.
- RB Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
Even though many believed fellow running back D’Onta Foreman would overtake Miller as the lead back in Houston, the sophomore out of Texas suffered an Achilles injury, which is still affecting him into this season’s workouts. Lamar Miller is again shaping up to be an excellent value this season, having almost no backers left. Over the past five seasons, Miller is averaging 45 receptions per season while totaling no less than 709 rushing yards in addition. In all PPR formats, Miller has never finished below RB2 status, yet he continues to be under-drafted. In this particular draft, Miller was the 35th running back taken behind players such as Jamaal Williams and Carlos Hyde, both of whom are unlikely to be the starting running backs for their respective teams. Miller is entering his age-27 season and will produce yet again for all Fantasy teams.
- WR James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers
Having traded deep-threat receiver Martavis Bryant to the Raiders in a draft-day trade, the Steelers quickly replaced him with the Oklahoma State rookie. Washington likely won’t play a huge role in 2018, but he will still contribute in the deep-passing game and make the occasional home run play. Because of his so-called poor landing spot, Washington is becoming one of the best values in both rookie drafts and startup drafts. Coming off of the board at WR61 behind Chris Hogan, Cameron Merideth, and Pierre Garcon feels all kinds of wrong. His role will most likely increase after 2018, but expect a Will Fuller-like year of production in 2018.
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The Reaches
- WR Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Game-managing quarterback Alex Smith is out and sophomore gunslinger Patrick Mahomes is in. Though this seems as nothing but good news for Tyreek Hill dynasty owners, think again. The Chiefs added Sammy Watkins to the wide receiver corps, who will make an instant impact in the explosive offense. With a great running game, Andy Reid will likely not be forced to throw the rock 50-plus times, so the targets will be more spread out this coming season. With Watkins expected to work the mid-range routes and stud tight end Travis Kelce working the underneath and short routes, Hill will be more of a deep threat-only in 2018. Do not be surprised if he finishes short of his 2017 catch total of 75. If so, his value at WR9 becomes an extremely pricey decision. Wide receivers such as A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, and Stefon Diggs are better values and could easily produce better numbers.
- WR Jordy Nelson, Oakland Raiders
Typing “Oakland Raiders” next to his name feels weird, which is parallel to his value in this startup draft. Taken as the WR33, Nelson’s dynasty value must be feeling the Gruden-effect if fellow receivers Calvin Ridley, Nelson Agholor, Robert Woods, and Kelvin Benjamin are all being taken behind the soon-to-be 33-year-old receiver. Though he will be the WR2 in Oakland this season, his style of play and age do not correlate very well. He struggles to run as well as he once could and lacks the sharp route running of his younger days. His touchdown rate might remain high, but the reliability and consistency are likely gone. Take younger and more consistent receivers such as those listed above and pass on Nelson’s high value.
- TE Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Having yet to play a single snap in an NFL game, Gesicki is this year’s rookie tight end who will likely disappoint many owners in 2018. The athletic freak from Penn State has a bright future but needs to develop many aspects of his game before becoming an all-around player in the NFL. Gesicki was taken as the seventh tight end in this draft before others such as David Njoku, George Kittle, and Trey Burton, all of whom are more likely to produce better numbers in 2018 than Gesicki. Both Njoku and Kittle are in arguably juicer spots and are one year older. Burton is a bit older at the age of 27 but is poised to contribute immediately without taking much time to learn his new offense. Gesicki is a fine dynasty stash, but as the seventh overall tight end, the players behind are much better options.
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